00:00But first, to the election in Israel, where no alliance of parties has secured the necessary majority.
00:06That is not unusual, as no single party has ever won 61 seats outright in the 120-member parliament, making
00:13coalitions the norm.
00:15In their first reactions, Netanyahu and Eisenkot attacked each other for playing with Israel's security.
00:21Take a listen.
00:23Assu!
00:24Or shoot Assu!
00:24It is forbidden, simply forbidden, to endanger Israel by forming a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab party.
00:33Anti-Zioniot.
00:36Netanyahu, do not dare to use Israel's security for your political needs.
00:41To all the citizens of Israel, I say already now, I can assure you, the era of evasion has ended.
00:50Joining me now is Elan Levy, a former spokesman of the Israeli government.
00:54Good morning, Elan.
00:56Good morning.
00:57So, simple question.
00:59What just happened and what happens next?
01:02That is not a simple question.
01:04It's an excellent question.
01:05Israelis are waking up this morning, scratching their heads and asking what happened.
01:09I mean, let's bring you an update now from the partial votes that have been counted.
01:13With about 52% of the votes counted, Netanyahu's bloc has 55 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.
01:22The change bloc has 49 seats.
01:25And the Arab parties have surged to a historic 16 seats.
01:30It means now there are really three options, a unity government, a minority government, or fresh elections.
01:39And all of those are going to require someone to surrender on some very serious coalition promises.
01:45The prospect of a minority government headed by Eisencott with the tacit support of the Arab parties is looking a
01:53lot less likely now that it seems they have dramatically underperformed.
01:58There is still a risk that Netanyahu's bloc could pull off that magic number of 61 seats.
02:04The votes are still being counted.
02:06But until we have a clearer picture, it would be pointless to speculate.
02:10Yeah, obviously a very complex situation.
02:13Is this the beginning of the end of the Netanyahu era, or are we underestimating his extraordinary ability to cling
02:21to power?
02:22Oh, no.
02:23This is an extraordinary comeback for Netanyahu.
02:25Despite the October 7th massacre that happened on his watch, despite three years of war since then,
02:31despite huge public unrest and dissatisfaction over his alliance with the ultra-Orthodox parties
02:39and their demand for an exemption from military service,
02:43Netanyahu is the leader of the largest party by a wide margin.
02:48His bloc has a commanding lead over the change bloc.
02:53If we put the Arab parties to one side and we can talk about why those are considered somewhat problematic.
02:58Netanyahu has lost his majority.
03:01It seems it's unlikely that he will hold on to a majority.
03:05But unless someone else manages to form a government, he remains the caretaker prime minister.
03:10Either we go back to elections or someone folds and sues for peace and joins his coalition.
03:15Right.
03:16Eiland, I have to ask you this.
03:18You mentioned the Arab-led parties.
03:20They could hold the balance of power.
03:22But how conceivable is it really that they will decide who becomes Israel next prime minister?
03:27I mean, despite the refusal of several opposition leaders to govern with them.
03:31The possibility of a minority government headed by Eisenkot, at least temporarily,
03:38with the support of some of the Arab parties was floated as an option.
03:44Leaders within the change bloc are warning that would be extremely unpopular
03:48and would backlash and end up giving Netanyahu an even bigger majority in the next election.
03:53As much as anyone wants to see the integration of Arabs into Israeli life,
03:58I think most European listeners would not want to have an Islamist party
04:02or an Arab communist party sitting in their own government.
04:05Mansour Abbas made big steps to come towards the change bloc
04:09and yet still refuses to call Hamas a terrorist organization.
04:13The Joint List, one of its newly elected candidates,
04:17dedicated their victory to the people of Gaza and occupied Jerusalem.
04:20So they are still kryptonite for most of the mainstream parties.
04:25It's possible that Eisenkot could rely on them to try to form a minority government.
04:30It would be very unpopular and definitely unstable.
04:33All right, Elan Levy, former Israeli government spokesman.
04:36Thank you so much for your analysis this morning.
