Former world chess champion and Russian opposition activist Garry Kasparov warns that Vladimir Putin is working to weaken NATO and divide the West from within. Kasparov argues that Russia is expanding its political influence across Europe through pro-Russian political forces, while warning that Donald Trump’s approach to NATO and Ukraine could create opportunities for Putin to undermine Western unity. He also raises concerns about a possible Russian incursion into NATO territory and the consequences if the United States fails to respond. Watch Kasparov’s warning on Putin’s strategy, Trump’s NATO stance, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the growing security challenges facing Europe.
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NewsTranscript
00:00If you have no doubts, I coined the formula two years ago saying if Trump
00:05wore a Russian asset, what he would do differently. So basically everything he
00:10has been doing, everything he ever said, so it's always helped Vladimir Putin. So
00:15it's always Russia, Russia, Russia, Russia. You have other dictators and
00:18totalitarian countries and bad guy, bad actors from the world, but somehow
00:23everything connected to Trump, Trump family interests, always ends up with
00:27Russia. And, and, you know, I remember I had debates just, you know, it's a, it's
00:31even just, it's too, as when Trump came back with some of my former friends,
00:36because a lot of people who supported Trump, they severed their relations with me.
00:41And it's very clear, you mentioned the Trump administration and his recent
00:45actions and remarks, of course, easing the sanctions on Russia, calling on
00:49Ukrainians to elect a new leader. The rhetoric we're seeing from DC, from the
00:55White House. It's rather concerning, isn't it? No, it's not concerning. Concerning
00:58means you have doubts. If you have no doubts, I, I coined the formula two years
01:05ago saying if Trump wore a Russian asset, what he would do differently. So basically
01:11everything he has been doing, everything he ever said, so it's always helped
01:15Vladimir Putin. So it's always Russia, Russia, Russia, Russia. You have other
01:19dictators and totalitarian countries and, and, and bad guy, bad actors from the
01:24world. But somehow everything connected to Trump, Trump family interests is always
01:28ends up with Russia. And, and, you know, I remember I had debates just, you know,
01:32it's, it's even just, it's too, as when Trump came back with some of my former
01:37friends, because a lot of people who supported Trump, they severed their relations
01:42with me. And, you know, when I just came up with some of these stories, they said, oh,
01:46it's all coincidences. And my response was, yes, I believe in coincidences, but I
01:51also believe in KGB.
01:54Yes, I think that's fairly accurate to say, but please, in your book, 2015, Winter
02:03is Coming, you already made the claim and made the argument that the West in action
02:07over Crimea will only embolden Putin. Have you seen a more decisive West since 2022?
02:17Yes, it's more decisive, yes. Decisive enough, not, not even close, because it's the, the
02:25free world is always not even one few steps behind. So it's also, we can, we can, once
02:30we had, I think the McCain conference, there was a debate. So whether, you know, the West
02:34is lagging behind once one move behind. And I said, no, no, no, you are not one move behind
02:40Putin. You are two wars behind Putin, because you still are afraid to, to start World War
02:45Three. And for Putin, it's World War Four ready, because in his theory, in his historical
02:50overview, World War Three was a Cold War that Soviet Union and Russia lost. And so now it's
02:55World War Four where he's trying to take revenge. So what is most amazing is that, you know, it's,
03:00okay, you don't have to listen to Garry Kasparov. Can you simply read what Vladimir Putin keeps
03:05saying, because he's very consistent. So this is something that is always bothers me
03:09is, it's, dictators, they always lie about what they've done, and Putin lies all the
03:14time. But very often, they tell us exactly what they're going to do. At the end of the
03:19day, Mein Kampf was published in 1925, and it was a blueprint. I mean, you can't say
03:23that Hitler was secretly about his plans. So there were a few minor details, of course,
03:26but basically, the plan was there. Vladimir Putin, in 2005, at the joint session of
03:31Russian Duma and Senate, bluntly said the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest
03:36geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. And you can't blame him for not being consistent.
03:41He repeated this message in front of Bush 43 and other leaders of the free world in
03:45Munich at security conference in February 2007. Next year, he attacked the Republic of
03:51Georgia. And I wrote an article in the Wall Street Journal a couple of weeks after his aggression
03:55saying next will be Ukraine. And the journalist asked me, how did you know? I said, I looked at
03:59the map. Again, because Putin's goals were not absolutely clear. Restoring what he believed
04:05Russian greatness. And his ultimatum before full-scale invasion of Ukraine in December 2021
04:11emphasized the goals of his regime to restore Russian control of Eastern Europe. Because
04:18it said NATO must go back to 1997 borders. Just two hours ago, Foreign Minister Lavrov basically
04:24said it's no more excuses. We don't want to have to ask for any excuses. Our goals, the
04:30goals of special military cooperation remain the same. So that's why, again, don't listen
04:35to me. Just read Putin's speech in Valdai. He said the change of the international order
04:41is imminent. And we are just pushing for it. So his plans have never changed.
04:46Yeah, the writing has always been on the wall.
04:48Yeah, it's on the wall, on the paper, you know, just say this. And it's somehow, you
04:53know, from this stage you hear in this attempt, how can we negotiate our way out? You cannot.
04:58So it's this, it's you use, thank you very much, using chess analogy, stalemate and checkmate.
05:04I wish we played chess. Because in chess we have rules. Vladimir Putin doesn't care about
05:09the rules. He changes rules any time he wants. But he's very specific about what he's going
05:15to achieve. And unlike in game of chess, this war, Ukrainian war, has no draw. There's
05:21no tie. There's no way to negotiate a way out. It's either Ukraine, God forbid, collapses,
05:26or Putin's regime goes down. That's it. There are two only options. And Putin believes he's
05:31winning. So that's why when I hear here, oh, Russia lost a million men, he doesn't care.
05:36No Russian leader, dictator, went down because he lost men. The only way Russia experienced political
05:43social change was bad war. Crimean war, mid-19th century, Russia's Japanese war, World War
05:50I, Cold War, Afghanistan. Sacrificing even a million men, even two million men doesn't change
05:56anything if people believe, and unfortunately still believe, that Putin is doing okay and
06:00we're fighting the world to, you know, to change the order, which is not just. And his propaganda
06:06machine is unfortunately doing a good job. Unlike in chess, in real life there is no draw,
06:12says Gary Kasparov, you win or you lose at the end of the day. No, I wish, no, in this,
06:16in the free world we have compromises, win-win. There's no win-win there. So this is, and it's
06:21not us who set up this tough, you know, tough dilemma. It's Vladimir Putin. Ukraine doesn't exist on
06:27Putin's geographical map. It's not, I'm telling you, he has been saying that. So that's why when you hear,
06:33oh, it says, we have to find a way to, again, this is how we, how are we going to
06:37build the world,
06:38you know, after the war. And so how, how you think they end the war? That's from Norwegian
06:44Prime Minister, just from this stage, a few hours ago said, and he even dared to mention, you know,
06:49FDR and, and, and, and, and Churchill about, you know, the allies that, you know, talked about the,
06:55the world, post-war world. Yes. But first they said unconditional surrender. First, you know,
07:01beat Nazi Germany and then, you know, then we can just talk about the world. As long as Putin stays
07:06in
07:06power, war would continue. Everything in Russia, from the kindergarten brainwashing to the top of
07:11the government, it's war, war, war, war. You look at the Russian budget, at the Russian economy,
07:17at Russian, you know, educational system. So everything, it's, the war has become ideological
07:21engine. You may say oxygen of Putin regime. He cannot end the war because that means he will lose
07:26his legacy. You're visibly, uh, upset, angry, and frustrated with Western leaders about what you
07:31perceive to be their weakness. Uh, look, it's just, it's, I, I, I, I'm Russian. I feel, you know,
07:39even though I have 25 years of record of opposing Vladimir Putin, my first article about his threat
07:45coming from him dated January 4, 2001, the Wall Street Journal. But I still feel that, you know,
07:50as ever Russian, I, I'm somehow guilty that we couldn't stop, you know, this monster killing,
07:55you know, of, uh, our neighbors, Ukrainians. And I understand what they're feeling. So this is,
08:00and speaking about, you know, just about plans, what we'll do in five years time, in 10 years time,
08:04plans. The war will not last five or 10 years. It's, Putin is pushing now. And we can talk about
08:10his plans because they are quite open. And he believes he is winning. And the only way we stop him
08:16is just, you know, to make sure that we have courage to say, Ukraine must win, Russia must lose.
08:21How many politicians are willing to save Europe? They're always, no, we'll, we'll stand with Ukraine
08:27as long as it takes. Takes what? To make a deal with Putin?
08:31Russia must lose, you say, because otherwise. Because there's no other way.
08:34The trickle down effect. Absolutely. Moldova, Baltic states.
08:37Everything. So this, and people say, how can you envision Russia losing because it's not Berlin 1945?
08:43Absolutely. But people always forget that before World War One, World War Two, World War One,
08:49this war will not end with Russian troops storming Kyiv, thanks, I'm sure, or, you know,
08:55Moscow being raised to ground. It's 1918. Germany capitulated in 1918 because it was depleted.
09:03No resources to continue war, while German troops were still, you know, partially on Belgian and French
09:06territory. That's the war. This is a war, different kind of war. It's not just drones. It's economy.
09:11It's a cost. And Putin thinks that, you know, he has a good chance of cutting European supply.
09:17It's basically Ukrainian life support now. All Putin needs now is just, you know, one major European
09:23country to actually, to pull the plug. When is French elections? Remind me, next April. So,
09:29and who is leading now there? And how long Ukraine can survive without, you know, these credits?
09:33Even these credits is not enough. And, uh, Europe is still in business. So, um, well, I see my Estonian
09:40friends in the front row. So, how come that Estonia is asking to remove one Russian company
09:46from the, from the sanctions list? Estonia, not Greece, not Spain. So, Europe is doing business with
09:52Russia. How, how are you going to win the war? So, theory of winning, it's not about theory of winning,
09:57it's not coalition of winning. We need coalition of winners. But it seems, again, that this is,
10:02the moment you say Ukraine must win, Russia must lose, you basically lose support among politicians.
10:07They're still trying to, basically, to hide behind this theme, this double-tank language.
10:15The title of, uh, this session is Rethinking the West's Game Against Russia. You've already talked
10:20about what you perceive to be, uh, President Trump being an accomplice of, uh, President Putin. But
10:26there are also very critical elections coming up in Europe, in France, other countries where equally
10:32pro-Russia parties and leaders can emerge. But look, it's, uh, Vladimir Putin may not be doing so well
10:39on the battlefield. Uh, he's not military dictator, but of course it's, it costs derelict to Ukrainians
10:45so that they paid enormous price. That's why saying Putin is stuck in Ukraine, yes, but what other
10:49European country is willing to pay the same price, even closest to, to what Ukraine paid? How many
10:55European capitals can survive one night of horror that Ukraine experience every day? So, um, um, and, um,
11:01uh, that's, and this, this war, you know, it's, uh, it's, it has another component. Yeah, I don't like the
11:07word hybrid, so, but there are covered operations. And Putin did extremely well by creating pro-Putin,
11:15pro-Russian political forces virtually in every major country. So even, even here in Poland,
11:22where they have a small, you know, far right group, you know, that is up to 10% of population,
11:26that is pro-Russian in Poland. So to the best of my knowledge, I mean, I just, I don't want
11:32to upset
11:32anybody here. I think only Sweden and Finland have no political parties that are, that's openly
11:37supporting Russia. So in every other country, you have some forces, and in countries like France,
11:42they're leading. Don't mention Germany. So we still have, you know, just time before general
11:47elections to Germany, but MERS government is very shaky and, uh, and they already attacking AFD,
11:54which is fully, you know, just, you know, Russian backed operation. So they, uh, they are already
11:58demanding the end of, of, um, of, uh, military and, um, financial supply to Ukraine. Actually,
12:05you saw the funny thing about the Yandex. So this is when they attack two, two, uh, um, uh, major
12:10stations.
12:11So all of a sudden, you know, the online support for AFD dropped 56%. So somehow there's a little
12:17other connection, mysterious connection, who could have imagined. So by the way, I don't know exact
12:22numbers about mug supporters, but they also dropped. So again, Putin invested billions and billions in
12:28buying favors, buying politicians, creating political, uh, uh, uh, forces, um, having, you know,
12:35throw factories, you know, using all the resources that, that he could master to win influence,
12:40because he has a plan. Like it or not, Putin has a plan. China has a plan. Do we have
12:45a plan? No,
12:46we still want to, you know, to dig us out, out this hole.
12:49And the unified, uh, approach and support on the part of the West keeps eroding. We're seeing
12:54the, but it's because it's a long, it's a, yes, exactly. Because it's a long time. This is, it's
12:58people, you know, people need, you know, just to, to, to, to understand. So this it's what's,
13:03what's to expect next. So it's almost five years of the full, full-scale war. And, uh, and it's easier
13:08for
13:08those now, this is, uh, who are working with Putin saying, let's stop it. Let's make a deal.
13:13People are getting tired. So we know many opportunities where the America and Europe
13:18could actually do more, but look, 22, 23, 24, so every year. And now, now we are reaching a point
13:24where Ukraine is in great, in great danger. We should understand this. It's, it's, it's, it's nice
13:29to see it here. By the way, it's 800 kilometers from the front line. So this is, it's not far
13:33away.
13:33And still, you know, this is, it's the, the whole, many, most of conversations here, they are very
13:38hypothetical. So how are we going to, you know, reach, reach 5% spending, uh, um, uh, uh, level?
13:46I mean, do you care? I mean, why do you spend 5%? Okay. Spain will, I don't think they
13:50will,
13:50but let's say Spain and Portugal will go to 5%. How does it help you to win the war? Because
13:55it's,
13:55it's still, you know, the, the word war is almost non, it's almost banned. Now this is, you talk about
14:00everything else, but the war somehow it's, it's, it's, it's, don't mention it. Let's,
14:05you know, produce more weapons. Perfect. To do what? So do we have a strategy? Do we have a plan?
14:11Because we have to make sure that, you know, it's Vladimir Putin will know the cost of his,
14:15of his, um, uh, uh, brazen actions. Because I think that it's following the logic. So this is,
14:21all he has to do now is Trump's still all powerful. And we know that elections in three weeks will
14:27basically will, uh, uh, um, reduce his powers. And in, in, in January, unless he tried to do,
14:33you know, coup d'etat, which I would still would, good luck. So it's for Trump. So it's,
14:38uh, uh, then in, in January, the Democrats will control definitely the house and very likely the
14:43Senate. So that's why Putin, uh, Putin has three months while Trump is basically controls all levels
14:48of power. So all he has to do is just to make sure article five doesn't work. So I know
14:53that,
14:54you know, it sounded crazy. Just when I first mentioned it a year ago, now a lot of people
14:58say it's, it's not going to happen. I hope not. But since I have pretty good records of predicting
15:02Putin's actions, all he has to do is across one native borders, Estonia, Latvia, small incursion.
15:08It's not invasion. He's not, not stupid. He's, he's hated. He's, you know, he's, he's, he's evil,
15:13but he is not stupid. And by the way, don't tell me Putin made mistakes. He's in power for 26
15:17years.
15:18He became president of Russia when Bill Clinton was president of America. So this is give,
15:23give him credit for, for knowing how to handle Russia and how to fight the free world. So all
15:29he has to do is just, you know, to have this incursion, just, you know, combined with drone
15:32attacks and American to sit it out. That's it. Nate is dead. So that's the message not for Estonians,
15:39not for Latvians, not for Finns, not for Swedes, not for Poles even. It's west of Poland. His target
15:44is there. Elections in France, elections in Spain, elections in Italy and German. Germany is also,
15:49you know, very precarious situation. That's, you know, that's the, that's the deal Putin will
15:52pushing through. I can attack you. America is not going to help you. Let's cut the deal.
15:57All you need is just stop funding Ukraine.
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