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KDI warns Korea's long-term growth could turn negative around 2030, as 566 billion won of prepayments sits stuck in closed funeral-service firms.
KDI says growth has fallen about 1 percentage point every five years since the early 1990s, and exports outside chips and cars have been flat for about 15 years. Meanwhile, prepaid funeral and travel products have grown into an 11-trillion-won market, but 22 closed firms hold 566.17 billion won in stranded prepayments. Separately, more than half of Seoul apartment deals in the third quarter hit prior peak prices, and the government announced a 3 trillion won overseas construction fund.

Sources:
- "Without Chips, Stagnation: Negative Growth From 2030 at This Pace" — Seoul Economic Daily, Oct 12, 2026
- 11 Trillion Won Entrusted to Funeral Services, but Closed Firms Leave 566.1 Billion Won Stuck — Seoul Economic Daily, Oct 12, 2026
- More Than Half of Seoul Apartment Deals Top Their Previous Peak — Seoul Economic Daily, Oct 12, 2026
- New 3 Trillion Won Overseas Construction Fund, 1.4 Trillion Won for Shipbuilding AI — Seoul Economic Daily, Oct 12, 2026
- Digging Into Household Consumption and Corporate Pricing: The Foundation of Global Central Bank Policy — Seoul Economic Daily, Oct 12, 2026

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AI PRISM is Seoul Economic Daily's WAN-IFRA award-winning newsroom AI series, delivering Korean economic news adapted for global audiences. Episodes are produced with AI assistance and reviewed by a human editor.

Tags:
#KoreaEconomy #KDI #PrepaidServices #ConsumerProtection #NobelEconomics #KOSPI #AIPRISM #SeoulEconomicDaily #WANIFRA

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00:06A KDI researcher says Korea's growth could turn negative from around 2030 if the long-term trend holds.
00:13Consumers have more than 11 trillion won prepaid to funeral service companies
00:18and 566.2 billion won is stuck in 22 firms that closed.
00:2554.7% of sole apartment deals in the third quarter were at or above the previous peak.
00:33And the Nobel Economics Prize went to two economists whose work underpins how central banks set rates.
00:40It's Tuesday, October 13th.
00:42Let's talk about a trend affecting young professionals in Korea.
00:46Researchers are warning that Korea's growth depends heavily on chips while the rest of the economy stalls.
00:51Meanwhile, a fast-growing prepayment market is running ahead of the rules meant to protect the people who pay into
00:57it.
00:58And housing and policy news is shaping the costs and conditions young workers face.
01:04Here's what the numbers show.
01:06KDI estimates Korea's long-term growth rate has fallen about one percentage point every five years since the early 1990s,
01:13which could take it into the 0% range this year and below zero from around 2030.
01:20Pre-payments to funeral and prepaid service companies exceeded 11 trillion won in March,
01:27while 22 companies that closed or lost registration in five years held 566.17 billion won in prepayments,
01:37and four of them did not meet the legal 50% preservation requirement.
01:42Subscribers to prepaid travel products rose 3.9 times,
01:46from 60,000 in 2023 to 236,000 in March 2026,
01:54with related prepayments growing from 9.4 billion won to 111.8 billion won,
02:01of 10,930 sole apartment deals in the third quarter.
02:075,977 or 54.7% comma were at or above the previous peak for the same complex and size,
02:19up from 38.2% in the first quarter.
02:21The government will create a 3 trillion won overseas construction fund
02:26and invest 1.406 trillion won in shipbuilding AI automation at three hubs.
02:34Robert Hall and Michael Woodford won this year's Nobel Economics Prize
02:38for work explaining household consumption and corporate price setting,
02:43which underpins central bank policy models.
02:46So, what does this mean for young professionals navigating their next move?
02:51Earlier, we said 566.2 billion won of prepayments is stuck in 22 closed firms.
02:59Here's what that actually means for you.
03:01Companies must preserve at least half of prepayments,
03:05but four of the 22 failed even that,
03:08and compensation claims can expire if consumers don't file in time.
03:13If you've signed up for a prepaid funeral or travel plan,
03:16check how your payments are protected and keep your records,
03:20since the Fair Trade Commission has not separately checked prepaid travel product compliance.
03:25What to watch?
03:26Whether the Fair Trade Commission adds checks on prepaid travel products
03:30and stronger penalties as lawmakers urged,
03:34whether Korea acts on KDI's call for education and industrial policy changes
03:39to lift productivity and whether the 1.406 trillion won shipbuilding AI hubs
03:47at Mokpo Yongam, Gyoche Busan and Gunsan show first results.
03:52That's today's AI Prism, Early Careers.
03:56This episode was produced with AI Assistants,
03:59based on Seoul Economic Daily Reporting,
04:01and reviewed by a human editor.
04:03AI Prism is a one IFRA award-winning series.
04:07We'll be back tomorrow.
04:08You've been listening to AI Prism from Seoul Economic Daily.

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