00:00μ£Όμ holiday ended on the 28th samsung electronics and skhenix both fell more than five percent both
00:06are heading into record quarterly profits profits and share prices are moving in opposite directions
00:11the number that could explain the gap comes out early on october 1st korea time
00:18let's start with earnings according to funguide the consensus for samsung electronics third
00:24quarter operating profit is one hundred eleven point three seven thousand seventy two trillion one
00:29for sk hynix it's 78 211 trillion one combined that's 189 trillion one close to 190 trillion
00:38if that holds samsung will post an operating profit above 100 trillion one in a single quarter for the
00:44first time yet shares fell for a second straight day the market is looking past the last quarter
00:49to the next one one camp says profits peak here the other says they don't that's the memory peak
00:58debate and the first piece of evidence is micron micron's fiscal year ends in september so its
01:06fiscal fourth quarter runs june through august that overlaps two months with the third quarter of
01:10korean companies in effect it's a report card on the same market a month earlier micron's own
01:16revenue guidance is 50 billion dollars about 67 7 trillion one that's 21 percent above the previous
01:24quarters 41.46 billion dollars guidance is the company's own forecast so it carries different
01:30weight from outside estimates profit ultimately comes down to price market researcher trendforce
01:37expects third quarter contract prices for general purpose dram to rise 13 to 18 percent from the previous
01:43quarter and non to rise 10 to 15 percent memory makers are selling the same product at higher prices
01:50after years of downturn their pricing power has changed what's pushing prices up is ai
01:58the more memory and ai system has to hold information the more it can process at once memory is the
02:05component that provides that space nvidia's ai accelerators always come with high bandwidth memory or hbm
02:12lately the nature of demand is shifting too
02:17agentic ai like meta's muse which carries out tasks on a user's behalf is on the rise these tasks run
02:24long and require remembering a lot so analysts say they use not only hbm but also the server dram
02:31attached to cpus that said this hasn't yet shown up in earnings supply isn't expanding quickly
02:39gil luria analyst at da davidson expects at least another year before supply increases
02:46samsung electronics sk hynix and micron have already sold most of their 2026 premium ai memory volume in
02:53advance still luria is a bull keeping a price target of two thousand dollars the other side has solid
03:02arguments too trendforce says price increases will slow from the previous quarter as pc and smartphone
03:08makers feel the cost pressure the rise of chinese memory makers is also a variable
03:18wall street's forecasts span a wide range luria's two thousand dollar target implies 90 upside from the
03:241065 close on the 29th the average target across the market is about 120 a price target is an estimate
03:33for the next 12 months not a promise the undervaluation argument rests on multiples luria points out that amd
03:40and intel trade at price to earnings ratios of 40 to 60 while micron trades at seven but in industries
03:46where profits swing sharply multiples hit their lowest when profits are at their best whether a low
03:51multiple means undervaluation or the market assuming profits will soon fall is where views split
03:58so what matters isn't past results but next quarter's guidance if the company guides next quarter revenue
04:05above this quarters the peak thesis loses force
04:12if it guides flat or lower
04:16the stock market was right to move first
04:19this is a moment to watch direction not size second is the source of the profit you need to
04:24separate money earned from higher prices from money earned from higher volume profit that depends on
04:30price falls when prices fall watch how the company explains its long-term hbm contracts and volumes
04:38domestic data also comes out the same day semiconductor exports from september 1 to 20 came to 34.121
04:45billion dollars the 259 per growth rate partly reflects a low base from last year
04:51next month samsung electronics board is expected to approve a cash dividend of about 30 trillion one
04:58including the regular third quarter dividend micron reports early on october 1st it's more than one
05:04company's report card it's a yardstick for the next quarter of two korean companies heading toward 190
05:10trillion one in profit what to check isn't last quarter's numbers but how the company talks about
05:16the next one
05:17you
05:18you
05:19you
