00:00Hi, you're on the Palada na Cara channel, my name is Marcos.
00:03Today I'm not going to talk about any specific election polls, because that would be crazy.
00:08Let's take a look here.
00:09This is the BigPedia page, where they post summaries of all the election polls.
00:14Please note the list that is about to be released, with research conducted between September 28th and October 1st.
00:21September 30th, October 1st, until the payroll update on October 3rd.
00:25In other words, this week, up until Thursday, it's going to be crazy with the release of election polls.
00:32So I'm not going to talk about them.
00:34I'm going to talk about some things related to research and the difference between predictive models, which I'll show you.
00:40you, and aggregator.
00:43Here, look.
00:45And I'm doing this because of this article here on Poder 360.
00:49Find out how Lula and Flávio are doing in the polls 5 days before the first round.
00:52And then, when you go to look at the infographic, you see this situation here.
00:55Latest national polls, second round.
00:57Lula is ahead in 3 places, Flávio in 6.
01:00What's that?
01:01Yes, yes.
01:01Eleven research studies were used to create this comic strip.
01:06So, they have a subscription service that includes a survey aggregator, you know,
01:11which indicates which candidate is the strongest for that position.
01:15Generally, they get the research right, but they don't get the numbers right.
01:19They get the polls right, they get the trends right, but they don't get the numbers right.
01:20And it's quite a discrepancy, isn't it, that sometimes their model indicates a wide result for...
01:26a candidate and at the end an expressed result is shown.
01:29And when it is expressed, it often happens in reverse.
01:31This happens because all election polls are biased in one direction.
01:36That's why you have a margin of error, which is how companies protect themselves.
01:39And then you have, from the use of outdated PNAD data, as is the case with Datafolha, which I've already shown...
01:47For you, too, here's Leonardo Dias' page, where he adjusts it based on the updated PNAD data.
01:52And how does this change the results of the IBGE, the IBGE, the Datafolha survey?
01:57But, apart from aggregators, there are predictive models, which are nothing more than an analysis.
02:02statistic.
02:03A very common, very popular model that has nothing to do with politics; people use it.
02:06Just so you understand, from the Federal University of Minas Gerais, Department of
02:12Their field is Mathematics and Statistics, where they perform statistical analysis.
02:16For example, here they do probability analysis of a team winning the championship.
02:20So we have Flamengo with a 76.8% chance and Palmeiras with 21.3%.
02:26I protest, I think Palmeiras has a much better chance than that, but okay.
02:29Come on, Palmeiras!
02:30So, what happens then?
02:31This model is being refined, year after year, season after season, because they...
02:36By bringing in more historical data, they can identify when a part of the model isn't working properly.
02:41And then they keep modifying that model.
02:43There are research institutes that don't adjust their election model; they always use the same one.
02:46Those who make changes mid-way, those who make changes right before the election, are the ones who maintain the status quo.
02:50And then there are projects, like Voga Iris.
02:53Some people are saying it was made by a Federal University.
02:56No, if you search here, there's no connection to the Federal University.
02:59The connection to Voga Iris is due to one of its creators, João Pedro.
03:06Padua, a former academic and adjunct professor at the Federal Fluminense University, graduated
03:11by PUC-Rio.
03:12So some people think it's a public project.
03:16It is not.
03:16It's a private company.
03:18And they use the farting mechanism, which is what we're seeing here.
03:21At this point, their statistical analysis, based on the average of the predictive models
03:27According to electoral research institutes, they clearly give an advantage to the right.
03:32Because they correct the distortion, they correct that applied margin of error.
03:35For example, here it says the chance of winning, and the chance of winning in the first instance.
03:39first round, and the chance to go to the second round.
03:42Nobody has a 100% chance of winning in the first round.
03:44This indicates that Flávio would be the one with the best chance because of the distortion.
03:48Chance of going to the second round.
03:50They both have 100%.
03:51In other words, we will probably, in fact, have a second round.
03:53Nothing should be defined in the first stage.
03:55Especially because the smaller ones here, Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Naldo Cato, they're going to have...
03:59a reasonable vote.
04:01Here's the chart, and they explain how Iris reads the polls, that this is the model.
04:06that they created, which has the history, and then you sign up to be able to access it.
04:11to what Voga Iris sees as distortion.
04:15And here are the models.
04:15They use, if not memory, 16 models here, 16 research institutes, and the data.
04:22provided by them to the public.
04:23And here lies the bias.
04:25Positive bias is left-leaning bias, negative bias is right-leaning bias.
04:30On the right, we have here, identified, one, two, three.
04:35Three institutes that have a more right-leaning bias.
04:38The other 13 are on the left.
04:41And why am I saying this?
04:42Well, today, with the elections approaching, let's look at polling aggregators and what they indicate, considering that...
04:48We're going to have a lot of research coming out in the next three or four days, it's nonsense.
04:53Trying to predict who will win at this point is also pointless.
04:56We have to see how the alliances will turn out.
04:58Yesterday, Ricardo Salles withdrew his candidacy for the Senate here in São Paulo to favor...
05:03other people on the right.
05:05Similar movements are expected to occur between today and tomorrow, across Brazil.
05:09Let's wait and see.
05:09And simply looking at the polls and betting everything on them is also foolish.
05:14That's why models like the Voga Iris end up working well.
05:17Ah, but what is the purpose of this website?
05:20In fact, the goal is to give a sample of their mathematical model on a given topic.
05:27national relevance.
05:28And then sell the service to companies that need to perform statistical analysis.
05:33For example, companies that are going to make medium- and long-term investments in the stock market.
05:38What is the predictive model for how this action will react?
05:42Or, what is the level of acceptance of my product among the public, based on this analysis?
05:47Statistics compiled by that other company?
05:49Do you understand what I mean?
05:50This service is sold separately.
05:53Oh, and why are you showing this to us?
05:55I'm showing both sides, both left and right, not to keep singing.
05:59victory before its time.
06:00And also for you to seek information.
06:02Don't be swayed by election polls, whether they're for or against you.
06:06Simply vote.
06:07And discuss ideas.
06:08I was going to analyze the government plans of all the presidential candidates.
06:12I gave up.
06:13I'll only do it for the two who go to the second round, which should be Flávio Bolsonaro and...
06:18Lula.
06:18And I'm going to make the third video of the election special, where I'm going to do a little joke.
06:23with you, indicating how the election results for senator will be, state by state, before
06:29until the election results are released.
06:31I should be releasing this video sometime between Friday night and Saturday afternoon.
06:35I'll be leaving around that time.
06:38And there's my little suggestion for a game you two can play.
06:41Make a betting pool with the results for the Senate elections in your states and see how the representation in the state's delegation will look.
06:47between left and right.
06:49Will Lula be able to protect himself from a possible impeachment or protect his ministers?
06:54of the Supreme Court.
06:54Or will the right wing succeed in ousting a potential president Lula, and especially his ministers?
06:59of the Supreme Court.
07:00Okay everyone, this video is just a curiosity about what to expect in terms of numbers.
07:07in this final stretch of the first round.
07:09Other models, such as the Voga Iris, are available online.
07:12I did some research.
07:13Which should include some models for governors, for example.
07:16And that's all.
07:17And that.
07:17Well, if you liked it, please like, comment, and share.
07:21Help me with this channel project.
