Dan Miller A REALLY Inconvenient Truth

Climate State

Dan Miller outlines extreme climate change https://earthclimate.eu/2013/05/03/dan-miller-extreme-climate-change/

Transcript

00:00:00Dan, take it from there.

00:00:03Let's summarize the talk there, so I don't...

00:00:05Anyway, good evening, everybody.

00:00:09I'm starting off with this slide.

00:00:10This is the first slide from the Inconvenient Truth slideshow.

00:00:14I was part of the...

00:00:16I am part of the Climate Project, which is Al Gore's group that trained 1,000 people.

00:00:20Actually, now it's a little bit more than that.

00:00:21To go around the country and around the world giving the Inconvenient Truth talk.

00:00:26As part of that training, he explains how there's a certain hope budget,

00:00:31and you really should not get too dire because you'll turn everybody off if you do that.

00:00:37I was once giving a talk at Cornell, and they were filming it.

00:00:41You're not allowed to film the Inconvenient Truth talk because of copyright issues.

00:00:44So I decided to give a different talk where I didn't follow those rules.

00:00:48And it's got a pretty good reaction.

00:00:50I think that people like to be told the truth, even if it's not very pretty.

00:00:57So instead of an Inconvenient Truth, we're going to talk about a really Inconvenient Truth.

00:01:07We're going to go beyond an Inconvenient Truth.

00:01:09By the way, show of hands, how many people have seen the movie An Inconvenient Truth?

00:01:13Almost everyone, but not everyone.

00:01:17So the really Inconvenient Truth is that the recent information we've all been given about climate change,

00:01:24the main source of that being the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC,

00:01:31that information that came out in 2007, it's a report that says things are going to be really bad

00:01:35if we don't do something about climate change.

00:01:38So the really Inconvenient Truth is that that report is essentially a best-case analysis.

00:01:45And the reason for that is that there's a lot of reasons.

00:01:48The information that's in that report had to be submitted years earlier before updated information was available.

00:01:54There's governments that are overseeing what the scientists can put in the report,

00:01:58and China doesn't want to see certain things there.

00:02:00And so there's sort of this consensus-building thing.

00:02:03So everything in the report is pretty much assured going to happen.

00:02:06But there's a lot of things that are going to happen that aren't in the report.

00:02:09And so we're going to go beyond that.

00:02:11And instead of considering the best-case possibility,

00:02:14we're going to take a look at what the more expected case is going to be.

00:02:18And one way to look at this is to take a sort of a probability curve,

00:02:25where the higher it is, the more likely something is.

00:02:29And on the left side are better outcomes from climate change.

00:02:32And on the right side are the worst cases of climate change.

00:02:36So you put the IPCC, it's sort of on the left side.

00:02:39It sounds pretty bad when you read the report,

00:02:42but that's pretty much the best we can hope for.

00:02:46What's more likely is something that I'll call biblical,

00:02:49because it really would fit the description of what's in the Bible.

00:02:55And on the right side, with unfortunately not a very tiny probability,

00:03:00with a reasonable probability, it could be game over.

00:03:03And game over means we're not here anymore.

00:03:06And we're going to see why that's going to happen.

00:03:10Well, one reason that the IPCC report is conservative, I call it,

00:03:15or sort of a best-case scenario, is that it used linear models.

00:03:19Linear models are easier to formulate.

00:03:20They're easier to agree upon, which is very important in a consensus-building thing.

00:03:24And so, and that's how it is.

00:03:26But the real world doesn't tend to work that way.

00:03:28The real world is discontinuous.

00:03:30And let's take a look at a very practical version of that.

00:03:33We all know what H2O is.

00:03:36It's water.

00:03:37Well, it's actually, it's water when it's warmer than 32 degrees Fahrenheit.

00:03:42But when it's less than 32 degrees Fahrenheit, it's ice.

00:03:46And it doesn't, like, slowly transition from one to the other.

00:03:49It's either that or it's this.

00:03:51And this is actually a rather apt example, too,

00:03:55because this is pretty important in terms of the ice in the Arctic and the Antarctic,

00:04:01because we're warming it up right now, and it's crossing over 32 degrees.

00:04:05So, in fact, let's take a look at a chart from the IPCC where it's predicting what,

00:04:13how soon this summer ice in the Arctic is going to melt.

00:04:17So this is, from the starting point, 100% means there would be no ice left in the Arctic.

00:04:23And they predicted that basically around 2080, about 2100, all the ice would melt.

00:04:29But in reality, the ice is melting very quickly.

00:04:32It's about half gone now.

00:04:34And it's going to be all gone in the next five or ten years.

00:04:36And if you don't believe that, you can take a look at actual satellite images

00:04:40taken year to year in the summer of the Arctic ice, starting in about 1979, 1980.

00:04:50And then there in the middle, I think if you play that forward in your mind just a little bit,

00:04:54you'll see why it's such an amazing thing.

00:04:59This is, by the way, not very subtle.

00:05:01This is something you could observe from the moon if you were there.

00:05:04And the problem is that ice reflects about 80% of the sunlight hitting it, and dark water absorbs about

00:05:1080%.

00:05:10So as the ice melts, there's more water exposed, more sunlight heats it up more, it makes the ice melt

00:05:19faster.

00:05:19That's an example of a feedback.

00:05:22And there are a lot of other feedbacks in the climate that sort of feedback on themselves and make things

00:05:28worse.

00:05:29And after a while, if any of these kick in, they can put out, for example, more CO2 or heat

00:05:35up the planet faster than we are.

00:05:37Once that happens, then it's out of our hands.

00:05:39And we're going to explore some of that as well.

00:05:42By the way, this is a chart showing this outer line was sort of the average from 1979 to 2000

00:05:48of the summer Arctic ice.

00:05:51In 2005, it dropped a lot, and they thought, wow, that really dropped a lot.

00:05:54In 2006, it was about the same.

00:05:56And then 2007, in one year, it lost as much ice equal to three times the size of California.

00:06:05That's a lot of ice.

00:06:07And this year, the last two years, we're tracking about at 2007.

00:06:11Slightly more than 2007, but they're not.

00:06:13But there's other problems, too.

00:06:15The ice that remains is thinner ice than before.

00:06:18It's younger ice.

00:06:20And so that's why this is already, most scientists think this is already a done deal, that this is going

00:06:24to be all gone.

00:06:25And the other problem with it all being, now, this is ice floating in the water.

00:06:28So it doesn't raise sea level.

00:06:30It's like if you melt ice in a glass, and when the ice melts, the water level doesn't change.

00:06:34Ice on land, like in Greenland, if that melts, it flows into the ocean, that would raise sea level.

00:06:40We're going to talk about that as well.

00:06:41But even though it doesn't raise sea level, it will make the Earth a lot warmer because there'll be dark

00:06:46water

00:06:47instead of this mirror reflecting the sun away in the summertime.

00:06:50And the other thing it will do is speed the melt of permafrost, and we're going to get back to

00:06:54that.

00:06:57So this used to be the scariest graph I ever saw.

00:06:59I'm going to show you a scarier one later.

00:07:01But this is actually a graph from an inconvenient truth that shows CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere

00:07:08over the last 650,000 years, and it compares it to the temperature over the last 650,000 years.

00:07:14And you'll notice they track pretty well.

00:07:17And the reason, and it just shows that CO2 is a really good reflector of heat.

00:07:24It's only 0.04% of the atmosphere.

00:07:28It sounds like it's almost nothing.

00:07:30But it's actually really good at trapping heat.

00:07:32So it acts like a blanket.

00:07:33And that's really good because without that, the world would be a frozen ice ball, and we wouldn't be here.

00:07:37But it's sort of just right the way it was, and we're sort of doubling that blanket.

00:07:43And that's going to make it warmer.

00:07:44So what you're seeing here is this is where it was.

00:07:49And then in the last ice age, this is temperature.

00:07:53So it was about 5 degrees cooler, and the CO2 concentration was 100 parts per million less.

00:08:00Now you might ask, why does it go up and down every 100,000 years or so?

00:08:04Well, over a period of about 100,000 years, the Earth's orbit changes very slightly.

00:08:08It changes its shape a little bit, and the Earth tilts a little bit differently.

00:08:12The Earth wobbles around its axis every 20,000 years, and the orbit changes over a certain number of years.

00:08:17And then once in a while, it lines up just right, so the Earth is tilted a little bit more

00:08:20away from the sun while it's a little bit farther away from the sun.

00:08:23And that makes the temperature drop just a little bit because it's farther from the sun.

00:08:27That starts a bunch of feedbacks that reduces CO2 in the atmosphere, which makes it cooler, which reduces CO2 in

00:08:33the atmosphere, which makes it cooler.

00:08:34And you end up with an ice age.

00:08:36You end up with two miles of ice above New York City when it was 100 parts per million less

00:08:41than it is today.

00:08:42So where are we now?

00:08:44Well, now we're 100 parts per million above where we were in the pre-industrial times.

00:08:53So again, when it was 100 parts per million less, there was two miles of ice above New York City,

00:09:00and now we're already 100 parts per million above, and where we're expected to be in my lifetime, actually, is

00:09:09much more than that.

00:09:10About 600 parts per million, maybe more, by the end of the century.

00:09:15It's actually, this is IPCC at level data, and it's actually worse than this so far.

00:09:21I mean, the emissions path we're on today.

00:09:23It's hard to imagine what this means, but there's another graph that actually folds this information into another form that

00:09:30we'll be able to see.

00:09:32But this is a model from the IPCC, again, this is the old data, showing the Earth's temperature since about

00:09:411880.

00:09:42And you'll notice whenever there's a volcano, it cools the Earth off by putting smoke in the atmosphere and reflecting

00:09:49the sun away, and it drops a little bit.

00:09:51But over time, it's still going up, and that's because of global warming.

00:09:54And then starting in 2000, it's obviously not historical data anymore, it's predictions for the future,

00:09:59and there's different lines based on different emission scenarios.

00:10:04It turns out that so far, the actual emissions so far are worse than the worst case assumed by the

00:10:11IPCC.

00:10:13So, I translated this into degrees Fahrenheit so you can see.

00:10:16So, we're talking about the Arctic being 15 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than today.

00:10:22But, we're going to, and you'll see these are degrees C over here.

00:10:26So, the 5 degrees C, the actual emissions so far are worse than that line assumes.

00:10:34Now, MIT, let's see if, I think that's the next one, let's move to the next one, then.

00:10:40So, MIT put out a study this January where they took all this data,

00:10:44and they did a probability assessment of different temperatures at the end of this, over this century.

00:10:50They did the same, they did the same study back in 2003,

00:10:55and it basically said there's a 50% chance we're going to hit 2 degrees C by the end of

00:11:00the century.

00:11:00But, they just redid their calculations based on updated information.

00:11:05And, you'll see that we hit, these are the red lines, we crossed 2 degrees C around 2050.

00:11:122 degrees C is an important number.

00:11:14It's the number, the temperature increase that scientists say we better not go above 2 degrees C.

00:11:21And, there's a really good book called Six Degrees,

00:11:25which explains what 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 degrees warmer than today means.

00:11:30I'll summarize it for you.

00:11:321 degree is really bad, because it causes the Arctic to melt, it causes the Antarctic to melt,

00:11:37it causes hurricanes and droughts and everything we're seeing.

00:11:42And, we've warmed about a degree so far from climate change.

00:11:472 degrees is really bad.

00:11:50It's major sea level rise, wiping out of major cities around the world, war, famine, and all that kind of

00:11:56stuff.

00:11:563 is the Bible.

00:11:59I don't know how to say it any other way.

00:12:01It's just beginning of the collapse of civilization, collapse of agriculture, certainly collapse of economies.

00:12:084, 5, and 6 degrees is sort of, hey, is anybody there?

00:12:11A little Mad Max kind of stuff going on.

00:12:14And, 6 degrees is silence.

00:12:16We're basically not around.

00:12:18And, we're going to talk about this.

00:12:19But, let's understand this graph a little bit better.

00:12:21It says, there is a 95, by the way, this graph assumes business as usual, which is what we're doing

00:12:30right now.

00:12:30That means, going along, not taking major action to reverse the trend.

00:12:36And, you're going to understand why we need to reverse the trend.

00:12:3995% chance that we'll be at 3.5 degrees C, 6 degrees Fahrenheit, warmer than today at the end

00:12:51of the century, crossing 2 degrees, roughly 2050 or so.

00:12:56That alone is unacceptable.

00:12:5895% chance.

00:13:0150% chance that we'll be at 5 degrees C.

00:13:05Sort of, very close to game over at that point.

00:13:07And, a 5% chance that we're at 7 degrees C, which is certainly, certainly game over.

00:13:12And, keep in mind that it doesn't stop at 2100.

00:13:16You know, so, if we're on these paths, and we only hit, let's say, 3.5 degrees, we'll be at

00:13:215 degrees, you know, at 2120 or something like that, or 2130.

00:13:25So, 2100 is sort of an artificial path.

00:13:29But, one thing I have to emphasize, things are going to be getting bad.

00:13:33Well, first of all, they're getting really bad already in places like Australia and certain parts of Africa.

00:13:37It's going to be really bad here in about 10 years in the Southwest, and it's going to be really

00:13:42bad, most places, in about 2020.

00:13:44And that's the, and so, this is not just, let's not worry about it, hey, not in my lifetime kind

00:13:49of a thing.

00:13:50Certainly, we'll see it, our kids will live it, and it's a question about whether our grandchildren will get through

00:13:56it.

00:13:58But, talking about parts per million and degrees C, this chart, I might as well have just told you that

00:14:03an asteroid is headed for Earth.

00:14:05And that's really the impact we're talking about.

00:14:07But, it, but when I say, uh, four, five hundred parts per million, or I say five degrees C, no

00:14:13one reacts.

00:14:14No one under, it doesn't, it's not built into it.

00:14:16We're going to talk about the psychology of climate change a little bit later.

00:14:19But, basically, these kind of numbers mean nothing to anyone.

00:14:21So, what I try to do is to change, to translate, to come up with an analogy of what this

00:14:26all means.

00:14:27So, we're going to, uh, take a look at what, what does two degrees mean to something that we understand

00:14:33in our, more of our daily life.

00:14:35Hopefully not your daily life, by the way.

00:14:36But, uh, so, plus two degrees C is about, like, driving your car into a brick wall at twenty miles

00:14:43an hour.

00:14:45Okay?

00:14:46Um, you're going to be damaged, you're probably going to be hurt, you might get killed.

00:14:51There's a reasonable chance you might walk away.

00:14:54Or, at least, go away in an ambulance, right?

00:14:57Four degrees C is like hitting your car into a brick wall at forty miles an hour.

00:15:02You might, you might make it through.

00:15:04Less chance of that.

00:15:05But, six degrees C is like hitting your car into a wall at sixty miles an hour.

00:15:10And, by the way, I forgot to mention, no airbags, no seatbelts, and all your grandchildren and future grandchildren are

00:15:18in the back seat.

00:15:20So, that's the kind of thing we're talking about here.

00:15:24Now, let's take a look at some of the, the data from around the world.

00:15:28Greenland is melting rapidly.

00:15:30Everything, in just the last two or three years, scientists have found that everything they thought is much worse than

00:15:37they thought.

00:15:38Greenland is melting rapidly.

00:15:40We can measure it using satellites that measure gravity, so they can actually see how much ice is there.

00:15:45Water is pooling on the top of, of, of Greenland ice sheets, and then it goes down to the bottom.

00:15:51It lubricates the bottom of the ice sheets, and they flow out to the sea faster.

00:15:55So, the IPCC said, oh, there'll be about a two-foot sea level rise at the end of the century.

00:16:00And they had a little asterisk there.

00:16:02They said, well, we only included two of the three causes of sea level rise, because we, we weren't sure

00:16:07about how to calculate the third one.

00:16:09Well, the third one is collapse of ice sheets, ice sheets falling off the sides into the water.

00:16:14That is, by far, the largest piece of sea level rise.

00:16:18And when you add that in, and Jim Hansen, who's one of the leading climate scientists in the world, said

00:16:22he's, he used the word certain, that it will be a multimeter sea level rise this century.

00:16:27Multimeters mean six feet plus.

00:16:29Two feet, by the way, is really bad.

00:16:32Two feet is really bad.

00:16:34Six feet, it's hard to imagine.

00:16:36That means all the major cities in the world are wiped out, and we're talking about this century.

00:16:43The Antarctic.

00:16:45There's the West Antarctic ice sheet over there.

00:16:48It's being held in by two glaciers that are, as they say, on thin ice, I guess.

00:16:56These glaciers are, unlike other glaciers in Greenland, which are all on land, a lot of these glaciers are actually

00:17:03in the water,

00:17:04but it's shallow enough that they're actually anchored to the ground under the water.

00:17:09But the problem is the warmer water from the ocean is underneath them, and it's undermining them, and they can

00:17:14collapse much sooner than people think.

00:17:17And once they collapse, behind them is the entire West Antarctic ice sheet.

00:17:22If that sheet goes, it's about 18 feet of sea level rise, just for that alone.

00:17:27Greenland, by the way, if it melts, is 18 to 20 feet of sea level rise, all on its own.

00:17:32And just to give you an idea what that means, this is if the West Antarctic ice sheet goes.

00:17:37That's what Florida looks like.

00:17:39By the way, Florida's going to look like that in the next couple hundred years, certainly, but this is possible

00:17:43in the next hundred years.

00:17:44It's not likely, because this is, you know, again, the predictions are more in the six feet range for this

00:17:50century.

00:17:51But, again, everything we're learning, it goes faster and faster and faster.

00:17:54Even the last couple of weeks, the data from the West Antarctic ice, there was articles about how it's melting

00:17:58four times faster than they originally thought.

00:18:02So, we really don't know, but this is a reality.

00:18:05And, by the way, the time to stop buying Florida real estate is now.

00:18:10Not that this is going to happen soon, but as soon as everybody realizes this is going to happen, that's

00:18:14when the price drops, right?

00:18:15I can tell you now this is going to happen.

00:18:18And it's going to become conventional wisdom in a little while, but not cool.

00:18:21It takes a while.

00:18:23It's not a secret thing.

00:18:24And, by the way, oceans will rise.

00:18:26This is not prediction.

00:18:27This is historical data.

00:18:29This says at different CO2 concentrations, we're currently around here, this is what the ocean level was.

00:18:36So, it says, as everyone, the scientists are saying, we better stop at 550 parts per million.

00:18:41Now, they're saying 450.

00:18:42And, actually, Jim Hansen says we have to stop at 350.

00:18:45We're already at 387.

00:18:49He says we can't go above 350.

00:18:51We have to go back.

00:18:52But, if we went to 550, that says the sea level was 150 feet higher than today.

00:18:58And that's what's happening.

00:18:59We're already at the current 380.

00:19:01It says it's about 50 feet higher than today.

00:19:03That's where we're heading.

00:19:04Okay, the Arctic is melting.

00:19:06The Antarctic is melting.

00:19:07When it's all gone, it's 280 feet higher than today.

00:19:12And it's happened in the past.

00:19:13It's not, like, just theoretical.

00:19:15It's happening now.

00:19:16It just takes a long time to happen, but we're letting it happen.

00:19:18We're letting this happen to future generations.

00:19:22Other problems that can happen this century is the Amazon is drying out because of the change in weather patterns.

00:19:28The trees there are not meant to withstand drought.

00:19:31It's supposed to be a tropical rainforest.

00:19:33It's not supposed to be something that gets drought.

00:19:35There were some droughts a little while ago for a couple years in a row.

00:19:39And this is a ship on the Amazon River.

00:19:43They were actually flying water up to villages using helicopters off the Amazon River.

00:19:48That's bizarre.

00:19:50But if a drought goes for three to five years, then all the trees will burn because they're not designed

00:19:56to withstand the drought.

00:19:57And that will release tremendous amounts of CO2, which will heat up the atmosphere more,

00:20:01which will make essentially the whole Amazon collapse and turn it into savannah.

00:20:05Now, this was not predicted.

00:20:09Again, this is not part of the 2007 IPCC model.

00:20:12They are updating those models now.

00:20:16So if you had to be scared of one thing, there's actually lots of things to be scared of.

00:20:20But if you ask me what's the one thing I worry about the most in the near term, it's the

00:20:25permafrost melting.

00:20:26The permafrost is, as it says, frozen ground around the Arctic that contains organic material.

00:20:33It's old plants, maybe a dinosaur here or there or something like that.

00:20:36But it was mostly like frozen peat moss, if you think of it like that.

00:20:41And it's frozen, so it hasn't decomposed into CO2 and methane.

00:20:44It contains twice as much CO2 as the entire atmosphere holds.

00:20:52And it is melting now.

00:20:56We really don't know how fast it's melting.

00:20:59We don't know how much CO2 is giving off.

00:21:01We know it's happening.

00:21:03There's some estimates.

00:21:04It's a lot already.

00:21:06Humans give off about 30 billion tons of CO2 a year, excess CO2.

00:21:13And since methane is 20 times more powerful than CO2 as a heat-trapping gas,

00:21:18it's estimated that the amount given off in the last couple of years

00:21:20might be equivalent to about a billion tons of CO2.

00:21:23What's happening in this picture is this is a lake in Siberia.

00:21:29It's a lake formed because of melting permafrosts.

00:21:32It's now water underneath.

00:21:34Someone poked a hole in the ice and lit a match.

00:21:41It's like lighting a gas stove.

00:21:41Oh, this place is just moving.

00:21:49Fire coming out of ice is one of the most bizarre things I've ever seen.

00:21:54That is very serious.

00:21:55Methane bubbling out of the water.

00:21:57You're not supposed to see a stream of fire coming out of a frozen lake.

00:22:03That's because there's methane trapped under there.

00:22:06And they poked a hole and released it and lit a match.

00:22:08It's like lighting a gas stove.

00:22:11And that is happening all over the Arctic now.

00:22:14I just saw an article on this two days ago

00:22:17where they just took a little patch of the Arctic sea and did sonar

00:22:22and could see methane plumes coming out of the bottom of the sea.

00:22:26Actually, that's coming from something else, which we'll get to in a moment.

00:22:32So the oceans have been absorbing a lot of the CO2 that we put into the atmosphere.

00:22:37As you've heard, they're getting more acidic.

00:22:38As they get more acidic, shells can't grow.

00:22:42And that's sort of the plankton and these kind of things that have hard shells and little shrimp.

00:22:47And it's going to reach a point where they can't grow at all.

00:22:50That's sort of the bottom of the food chain.

00:22:52Remember, we're at the top of the food chain.

00:22:54So when the bottom of the food chain goes, everything above it is in a lot of color.

00:22:58And also, as the ocean warms, it also can absorb less CO2.

00:23:02And also, as it gets more CO2 in it, it also absorbs less CO2.

00:23:06So it's already absorbing less of the CO2 we're putting out than it used to.

00:23:10And if it gets to the point where it gets so bad, it actually starts giving off CO2.

00:23:14If that ever happens, that's game over.

00:23:17This is not one of the scientists at UC Berkeley that studies this.

00:23:21Now, this is not, like, the nearest-term thing to worry about.

00:23:24This is a longer-term thing to worry about.

00:23:25But certainly, just the fact that it's absorbing less CO2 is a problem.

00:23:28Because that means when we cut back our CO2, which we have to do, we have to cut it back

00:23:32more than we think.

00:23:34Because the ocean isn't helping us as much as it used to.

00:23:37So this is the one I wanted to get to about what the bubbling...

00:23:40There's another source of methane.

00:23:42It's a stored...

00:23:44There is a tremendous amount of stored methane frozen in ice under the ocean, under high pressure and cold temperatures.

00:23:53That looks like a burning snowball.

00:23:56But that's a methane path rate.

00:23:58And if that ever goes, there's so much of that, that would release incredible amounts of methane into the atmosphere.

00:24:08And we would be gone pretty soon.

00:24:10Fortunately, most of it's pretty deep, where it's still pretty cold.

00:24:14And the warming that's happening so far is happening more at the surface.

00:24:18So this has not been disturbed.

00:24:19The one place that's an exception is in the Arctic Sea, where it was covered in ice all the time.

00:24:24And now it's not, so it's warming up fairly rapidly up there.

00:24:27And that's where they've been measuring this methane coming out a lot.

00:24:31But most of it gets absorbed by the ocean before it reaches the surface and doesn't get into the atmosphere.

00:24:37But it also makes the ocean more acidic, too, at the same time.

00:24:40So this one is something to worry about, but not as near-term problem as the permafrost,

00:24:47although we're learning more about this all the time.

00:24:50So that's some of the bad stuff that's going on.

00:24:55And this is all, I have to tell you, when I give this talk, I sometimes feel like I'm either

00:24:59giving a science fiction talk or something like that.

00:25:03This doesn't seem real to me either.

00:25:05But I talk to the scientists, and I can tell you, they tell me things that are just unbelievably scary.

00:25:11And they're doing it every day, so they don't even notice it sometimes.

00:25:14It's real.

00:25:15We have choices.

00:25:17It's amazing to me that we're not doing anything about this.

00:25:20Nothing I told you to hear today is a secret.

00:25:22It's all well understood.

00:25:23There's a lot more information recently that not everyone's up to speed on, that things are getting far worse.

00:25:29But let's look at some of the choices we have.

00:25:32Some people believe that climate change isn't real and that we shouldn't do anything.

00:25:36So let's take a look at a very simple matrix.

00:25:39Maybe climate change isn't real, or maybe it is.

00:25:43And we have two choices.

00:25:44We do something or we don't do anything.

00:25:46Well, if climate change isn't real and we do something about it, we're going to waste money.

00:25:52Now, we'll develop new technology and the world will be better for other reasons, but there's no problem to solve.

00:25:58Now, of course, I don't believe that, but still, if you want to look at it that way.

00:26:02Now, if we don't do anything and climate change isn't real, well, life just goes on and we'll still be

00:26:08better off anyway because we're going to run out of oil and things like that.

00:26:10But putting those energy security things aside.

00:26:13But if climate change is real and we do something about it, we're not wasting money.

00:26:18We're spending money.

00:26:19We're going to develop new technologies.

00:26:22We're going to make a better world.

00:26:23We're going to improve the economy.

00:26:25And we're going to improve energy security and all these other wonderful things.

00:26:29So, good thing.

00:26:30Well, if climate change is real and we don't do something about it, billions of people are going to die.

00:26:37There's going to be wars everywhere over resources.

00:26:41Famine and drought, which is beginning already.

00:26:43By the way, food production around the world has been dropping for the last few years because of climate change.

00:26:49We've been eating more grain than we've been growing for the last few years.

00:26:55There already is tremendous flooding and drought in different parts of the world.

00:27:00It will be the end of the world as we know it.

00:27:02Essentially, the collapse of civilization.

00:27:04It won't be any economy.

00:27:06It'll be, again, the Mad Max kind of existence.

00:27:09I don't think that's a good choice.

00:27:12And unfortunately, the scientists tell us the first column is not true.

00:27:15So, we're really left with just one choice.

00:27:18Now, this amazes me that we all know that this is pretty factual stuff.

00:27:22Yet, we're not doing anything.

00:27:24And why?

00:27:25So, I started looking into reading up on the psychology of climate change.

00:27:30And it turns out they've done some studies on this.

00:27:32It turns out that we've evolved over millions of years to act on certain information and to ignore others.

00:27:40And that's actually a useful thing for evolution.

00:27:41If you're reacting to everything, you won't focus on the important things.

00:27:45And your species will die out.

00:27:47So, we learn to react, humans learn to react to certain kinds of threats.

00:27:51They have six characteristics.

00:27:53So, let's take a look at those characteristics and compare them to the threats posed by climate change.

00:27:59First of all, visible.

00:28:01Imagine you're on the Serengeti and there's a lion shows up there close to you.

00:28:06There he is.

00:28:07So, now you know, oh, you've got to react to that.

00:28:09Climate change is invisible.

00:28:11It's a beautiful day out today.

00:28:15Historical precedent.

00:28:16The lion ate your brother last week.

00:28:19And you know to be scared of lions.

00:28:22Well, climate change has happened in the past, but we don't remember it.

00:28:25It's a long time ago.

00:28:27And so, essentially, that's unprecedented.

00:28:29Immediate.

00:28:30The lion's coming towards you right now.

00:28:32You better do something.

00:28:34You're really geared to react to that kind of thing.

00:28:37I'm talking about 10, 20, 50, 100 years.

00:28:41Might as well be forever, right?

00:28:45Simple causality is going to bite your head off and you're going to be dead.

00:28:49So, that one you kind of understand pretty clearly.

00:28:51Climate change, parts per million translates to degrees C, which causes changes in the climate.

00:28:58You know, all things are just way complicated for most people.

00:29:03Caused by another tribe or an enemy.

00:29:06In this case, the lion.

00:29:08And climate change, it's us.

00:29:10This is a very easy one to think about.

00:29:13To see how we would react if there wasn't any behind us.

00:29:16Imagine you read in the newspaper tomorrow that we find out that all the excess CO2 in the world is

00:29:21being released by Al-Qaeda.

00:29:25Think about that.

00:29:26Would we react?

00:29:27Of course we would.

00:29:29We would spend any amount of money, as we just did, to fight that, right?

00:29:36We would spend a trillion dollars, which we just did.

00:29:40And, unfortunately, this is actually caused by us.

00:29:44And the last one, direct personal consequences.

00:29:46The lion's going to eat you, so you're going to run.

00:29:50Climate change is more children and grandchildren and stuff like that, so that makes it less.

00:29:55So, basically, climate change scores zero out of six.

00:29:59But we all know it's a problem, and yet we find reasons not to do it.

00:30:02So, there's another study done about denial strategies for climate change.

00:30:07And you can find your favorite up here.

00:30:11I have my favorite.

00:30:12But, basically, these are the reasons people give for not doing something about it.

00:30:16And it's just normal human behavior.

00:30:18I think one of the things we have to realize is that humans are not rational.

00:30:24You know, I got over that a long time ago, giving talks on climate change.

00:30:28We're not.

00:30:28And we should recognize that fact and maybe try to use that to figure out ways of communicating

00:30:34and convincing people, because this is real.

00:30:36This is the most serious threat we have ever faced in all of history.

00:30:41It's happening very rapidly.

00:30:43And so, we have to get over these things.

00:30:46So, let's talk a little bit, if you run a business, what does this mean to you?

00:30:50There will be a decline in products that are carbon intensive.

00:30:54It's already happening somewhat.

00:30:56Cars, we've just seen recently, the clunkers being turned into more fuel-efficient cars.

00:31:00But this is going to happen more across the board.

00:31:02Relatively short time frames, by the way.

00:31:05This is an unusual situation.

00:31:08If I was to tell you in the early 90s there's going to be this incredible thing called the Internet,

00:31:13and it's going to change everything, and you believe me, and you acted on that information,

00:31:18you would do really well for yourself.

00:31:20This is a very similar thing.

00:31:21This is a for sure thing that's happening now, and almost everyone's ignoring it.

00:31:26I mean, we talk about it a lot, but we're not doing anything.

00:31:28So, if you actually act on it, you can actually do quite well, but at the same time,

00:31:33things are going to be, it's not going to all be rosy here.

00:31:37So, there's going to be impacts on your business and your employees, your customers.

00:31:40There are going to be hurricanes.

00:31:42We already lost a city, a major city, a bunch of small ones.

00:31:44We're going to lose more of them in the next decade.

00:31:49There is drought.

00:31:50There's more wildfires.

00:31:51They're up 50%, probably even more than that by now, actually.

00:31:54More flooding, and there's more drought.

00:31:56So, pandemics we're seeing now, sea level rise is going to start a little slowly

00:32:01and then pick up a little later.

00:32:03You have to watch out for optimized systems just in time, inventory and things like that,

00:32:10because what happens when the factory making your widget in Florida gets hit by a hurricane

00:32:14or a flood or something like that, and you don't have it?

00:32:18So, you have to think a little differently.

00:32:19Rather than optimizing, you want to be robust.

00:32:23Optimized means you're best for a certain set of conditions.

00:32:26But what you want to be is robust.

00:32:27You want to work well under a wide set of conditions.

00:32:31And there's going to be a lot of unforeseen impacts.

00:32:34I don't know if you know what black swans are.

00:32:36There's a book called Black Swans.

00:32:37But black swans are basically unforeseen events that change everything,

00:32:41like the transistor or 9-11 or the Internet.

00:32:46And global warming is going to cause a lot of black swans.

00:32:49And you think that they're rare events that aren't predicted,

00:32:52but they really end up changing the world we live in,

00:32:54and global warming keeps that better.

00:32:57Okay, so that's the bad news.

00:33:01What should we do?

00:33:02Well, it turns out there's a lot we can do,

00:33:06and there's a lot we really have to do.

00:33:08I'm going to start off by talking about what you can personally do.

00:33:13And the first thing I have on that list is to ask your children for forgiveness,

00:33:16because no matter what we do at this point,

00:33:19it's going to be really bad for them,

00:33:20and we're sort of going to leave them this really awful mess.

00:33:25You can do things like get a fuel-efficient car.

00:33:28We have someone here who can tell you all about that.

00:33:32You can eat less beef.

00:33:33It turns out that one-third of all the non-ice-covered land on Earth

00:33:40is used for beef production between pasture lands and grain growing for the beef,

00:33:48and that's why they're cutting down the rainforest in Brazil,

00:33:51is to grow pasture land or to grow soybeans for cows.

00:33:56And it turns out because cows give off methane, which is very effective,

00:34:00it turns out that about 18% of all the greenhouse gases come from beef production.

00:34:06Another way of thinking about it,

00:34:07eating a pound of beef is like driving your car for an hour and a half

00:34:13with all the lights turned on at home.

00:34:15So that's one way to think about it.

00:34:18You should change your life over.

00:34:20There's a compact course involved in that antique lamp back there.

00:34:25You'll save money immediately when you do it.

00:34:27There's no downside to it at all anymore.

00:34:30And by turning your thermostat down or up, as the case may be,

00:34:34depending on the season, wearing a sweater, keep you warm,

00:34:36those kind of things can help.

00:34:39Importantly, though, you need to talk to your family and friends and colleagues

00:34:42about what's happening and get them engaged on the subject.

00:34:45If you work for a company, you can get them to go green,

00:34:47and you can leverage your own impact into a much larger cause.

00:34:52And perhaps the most important thing you can do is talk to your elected leaders

00:34:55because, as we're about to see, the things we really have to do

00:34:59really have to happen at the national and global level.

00:35:02And the biggest obstacle to change right now is the Congress.

00:35:06A lot of people, you know, actually, people want to do something about it.

00:35:10But most of the inertia is in the Congress right now.

00:35:15So what should our country do?

00:35:17We need to implement a cap-and-trade system or a tax on CO2 as quickly as possible.

00:35:23The one that's in Congress now is really watered down

00:35:26and will not be effective in turning the problem around.

00:35:29But it will put the structures in place,

00:35:32so when everyone panics a few years from now,

00:35:34we won't have to spend a few more years putting those structures in place.

00:35:37We can just sort of increase the numbers a bit,

00:35:39increase the tax or increase the emission targets

00:35:42and things like that, or decrease the emission targets.

00:35:44So it's important to pass that law,

00:35:47but we should not fool ourselves that that's going to actually solve the problem.

00:35:51We need to have mandatory energy efficiency standards around the country.

00:35:55Folks in Berkeley pioneered this 25 years ago,

00:36:00or actually a little more than that now.

00:36:01And as you may know, in the last 25 years,

00:36:05while the rest of the country increased its energy per capita by 50%,

00:36:08California stayed the same.

00:36:10And basically that's because of its Title 24 building standards.

00:36:15And I don't see us suffering in our buildings

00:36:17compared to New Jersey or anything like that.

00:36:19So there's really no excuse for not having that being nationwide

00:36:22and much more strict than it is now.

00:36:25And by the way, buildings are about 40% of all the greenhouse gases

00:36:28that are caused by buildings and energy for buildings.

00:36:31We have to ban coal-fired power plants

00:36:34because they give off the most CO2 per unit of energy.

00:36:39And there's just no excuse for doing that anymore.

00:36:42And we also have to get rid of the ones we have,

00:36:45which is a lot harder to do.

00:36:47But we have to do it because, as Jim Hansen said,

00:36:49we have to get down to 350 parts per million.

00:36:52We're already at 387 and climbing at about three points per year.

00:36:57And the only way to really get down is to get rid of coal plants.

00:37:02And eventually other fossil fuels.

00:37:03We have to stop subsidizing fossil fuels.

00:37:06We give billions and billions of dollars every year to subsidize fossil fuels.

00:37:10We have to take that money away from fossil fuels

00:37:12and subsidize clean technology.

00:37:16We have to increase research spending a hundredfold.

00:37:20Well, actually, this is compared to the Bush administration.

00:37:22We've already gone up a lot in the Obama administration.

00:37:25But, I mean, this is tiny amounts of money

00:37:29compared to what needs to be spent in the future.

00:37:30But we have to understand the problem.

00:37:32We have to understand how fast the permafrost is melting.

00:37:35We have to understand how fast the methane is coming out of the ocean.

00:37:37We don't know these things.

00:37:38This is just a few billion dollars.

00:37:40We have to, you know, spend this money.

00:37:41Right now, the military spending is about this much,

00:37:44medical spending is that much,

00:37:45and energy spending is that much.

00:37:48And believe me, the energy and the military spending

00:37:50is going to go way up to the climate change

00:37:54if we don't do something about it.

00:37:55There's more we can do.

00:37:57We need to phase out beef.

00:37:58I explained why already.

00:38:00We have to, it's happening, it's going to happen anyway,

00:38:03so we're going to have to prepare

00:38:04for extreme weather and droughts and floods

00:38:07and wildfires and war and things like that

00:38:10and sea level rise.

00:38:12So the planning they're doing now

00:38:14for, like, the San Joaquin Delta,

00:38:17the dikes and things like that,

00:38:18they're assuming a couple of feet sea level rise.

00:38:20Well, they should be rethinking that

00:38:22about what it's really going to be.

00:38:25We need to research geoengineering.

00:38:27I have a whole section coming up on geoengineering in a moment,

00:38:29so we'll skip it.

00:38:30But geoengineering essentially is trying to artificially

00:38:32control the climate planet-wide.

00:38:37We're doing it anyway by accident.

00:38:40That's what climate change is.

00:38:42It's accidentally doing a global experiment

00:38:44of what happens when you increase CO2 in the atmosphere.

00:38:46We're about to find out.

00:38:48We need to support global family planning.

00:38:51There's too many people on Earth right now.

00:38:54This is, by the way, typically a taboo subject

00:38:56in climate change

00:38:57that you can't really talk about controlling population,

00:38:59but it's going to be controlled one way or the other.

00:39:02I just think we should do it the humane way.

00:39:07And this December in Copenhagen

00:39:09is the follow-on to the Kyoto Protocol

00:39:12where the world is coming together

00:39:13to figure out what to do about carbon

00:39:15in the next phase.

00:39:16And I can't tell you with certainty

00:39:19that there's going to be a really good result out of that.

00:39:21And we really need to.

00:39:23This is now the time.

00:39:26This is not a problem.

00:39:28If we wait even 10 years

00:39:31to start to tackle this problem,

00:39:32it will be too late.

00:39:34Once the permafrost starts putting out

00:39:37more CO2 than we do,

00:39:39it won't matter what we do

00:39:41in terms of reducing our emissions.

00:39:43We could stop the next day

00:39:45and it's just going to get worse

00:39:46and worse and worse.

00:39:48That process could happen

00:39:50a few years from now.

00:39:52I'm not saying it will happen

00:39:53a few years from now,

00:39:55but it could happen that soon.

00:39:57And certainly within the next 10 or 20 years.

00:40:00So there's no time for waiting.

00:40:06But I spoke to a climate scientist

00:40:08at UC Berkeley.

00:40:09I had lunch with her.

00:40:11And I asked her,

00:40:11what do you think the temperature

00:40:12is going to be in the 2100?

00:40:15Because she's the one

00:40:16who worked on the IPCC report

00:40:17that was the best case.

00:40:19And now she's doing all the updates

00:40:21with all the feedback mechanisms

00:40:22and the new emission plans

00:40:23and things like that.

00:40:24And she said,

00:40:24hmm, 6 to 12 degrees warmer than today.

00:40:28See.

00:40:32I said, do you know what you just said?

00:40:35Yeah.

00:40:38And she also said

00:40:40she could see

00:40:41no plausible scenarios

00:40:44where we reduce

00:40:45our emissions in time

00:40:47to avoid catastrophe.

00:40:50Nothing.

00:40:51If you were dictator of the world,

00:40:53nothing you could do at this point.

00:40:55That leaves one thing.

00:40:57Plan B.

00:40:59First of all,

00:40:59Plan A is you must

00:41:01reduce your emissions drastically.

00:41:04Plan B doesn't work

00:41:04unless you do Plan A also.

00:41:06But it may not be enough.

00:41:08So what geoengineering is

00:41:09is intentional control

00:41:13of the climate.

00:41:15We've been doing

00:41:16the accidental control

00:41:17of the climate.

00:41:18So this is stepping in

00:41:19and trying to be

00:41:20a little more intelligent

00:41:20about what we do.

00:41:22As I mentioned,

00:41:23I personally,

00:41:24this is not a consensus

00:41:26at this point,

00:41:27although the discussion

00:41:28of geoengineering

00:41:29in just the last six months

00:41:31has been elevated

00:41:32quite a bit.

00:41:33It used to be like

00:41:34a little quiet thing

00:41:35you talked about,

00:41:36but now it's getting

00:41:37in mainstream press as well.

00:41:42But if you believe

00:41:44that it's already too late

00:41:45to solve the climate problem

00:41:47by only reducing emissions,

00:41:50then your only choice left

00:41:52is geoengineering.

00:41:53Now, be a little careful.

00:41:54In some people's mind,

00:41:56geoengineering is only

00:41:57a certain set

00:41:58of rather intrusive things

00:42:00you do.

00:42:01To me,

00:42:01I include anything you do

00:42:03to lower this carbon

00:42:05in the air

00:42:05or to control

00:42:06the temperature

00:42:06of the planet,

00:42:07including some rather

00:42:08benign things

00:42:09that you probably

00:42:10should do a no-brainer.

00:42:11So just be a little careful.

00:42:12I use the word geoengineering

00:42:14a little more broadly

00:42:15than some people do.

00:42:16But in any case,

00:42:17some people like

00:42:19the concept of geoengineering

00:42:20because they think

00:42:21it's an excuse

00:42:22for not doing anything

00:42:23about climate change.

00:42:24Oh, we'll just fix it later

00:42:25using geoengineering.

00:42:26We can continue to emit

00:42:28the carbon that we do.

00:42:31That will not work.

00:42:33You need to use geoengineering

00:42:34to get rid of the carbon

00:42:35that's already there.

00:42:36If you continue

00:42:37to spew it out,

00:42:38all you'll be doing

00:42:39is just reducing somewhat

00:42:42the amount you're putting out,

00:42:43but you won't really

00:42:44be getting through the problem.

00:42:46And like chemotherapy,

00:42:50geoengineering,

00:42:50some forms of geoengineering

00:42:52have really bad side effects.

00:42:54Like chemotherapy,

00:42:56you might lose your hair

00:42:56and feel really, really sick.

00:42:59But the alternative

00:43:00isn't quite acceptable

00:43:01either, is it?

00:43:02So that's why

00:43:03I liken it to that.

00:43:05Let's look at some examples

00:43:06of geoengineering.

00:43:08And this is not

00:43:09an exhaustive list,

00:43:10but these are some

00:43:10of the main ones.

00:43:12The one that's talked

00:43:13about the most,

00:43:14and it's somewhat easy

00:43:15in some ways,

00:43:16is blocking sunlight.

00:43:18You only have to reduce

00:43:19the amount of sunlight

00:43:20hitting the Earth

00:43:20by about 2%

00:43:21to reverse the effects

00:43:22of climate change.

00:43:23And there's two main ways

00:43:25of doing that.

00:43:25The most talked about one

00:43:27is reducing smoke

00:43:28or putting sulfates

00:43:29in the upper atmosphere

00:43:31using planes or rockets

00:43:32or other things.

00:43:34And that's sort of what,

00:43:36we know that will work

00:43:36because that's what happens

00:43:37after a volcano.

00:43:39And the Earth does cool down

00:43:41after a volcano.

00:43:42So for a couple years

00:43:43until the smoke

00:43:44settles out of the air.

00:43:45So we know that will work.

00:43:47Now it turns out

00:43:47there's some kind of

00:43:48bad side effects,

00:43:49like one study showed

00:43:50that yes,

00:43:51you could reduce

00:43:52the temperature

00:43:52by a couple degrees,

00:43:53but it would stop

00:43:55raining in India

00:43:56and those kinds of things.

00:43:58Also,

00:43:59the problem with this

00:44:00is it's not solving

00:44:02the problem,

00:44:03it's just masking

00:44:04the problem.

00:44:04So once you start this,

00:44:06you have to keep doing it

00:44:07and if you ever stop,

00:44:08the temperature

00:44:09six months later

00:44:09is going to spike up

00:44:10by a few degrees

00:44:11and then you're gone.

00:44:12So, you know,

00:44:13if you don't have the budget

00:44:14to fly the planes anymore.

00:44:15So this is really

00:44:16just sort of at best

00:44:18a temporary solution

00:44:19maybe to fix

00:44:20a short-term problem

00:44:21like the melting

00:44:22of the permafrost

00:44:23while you're doing

00:44:23other things

00:44:24to fix the CO2

00:44:25in the atmosphere.

00:44:26Oh, the other,

00:44:27I'm sorry,

00:44:27I have to go back here.

00:44:28The other one

00:44:29is to build ships

00:44:30that take seawater

00:44:32and pulverize it

00:44:33and throw it up

00:44:33in the atmosphere

00:44:34and create low-level clouds.

00:44:36Ships do this anyway

00:44:37with their smokestacks

00:44:38so they make small clouds.

00:44:39This would make big clouds

00:44:40and you can put the ships

00:44:41where you want them

00:44:42and it can be

00:44:43very strategic about that.

00:44:44So there's some

00:44:44interesting capabilities

00:44:46about that.

00:44:48The other thing to do,

00:44:49and this is somewhat

00:44:50controversial,

00:44:50is to put iron

00:44:53in the ocean

00:44:54and iron is sort

00:44:55of a fertilizer

00:44:56for algae.

00:44:57It makes algae grow

00:44:57and algae eats CO2

00:44:59and then hopefully

00:45:00they die and sink

00:45:01to the bottom

00:45:02and stay there

00:45:03for a really long time

00:45:04if you do it

00:45:05in the right parts

00:45:05of the ocean.

00:45:06Recent studies show

00:45:07that it doesn't quite work

00:45:09as they hoped

00:45:10that fish eat the algae

00:45:12pretty quickly

00:45:12and it keeps the carbon

00:45:14up, you know,

00:45:15the surface.

00:45:16So more study

00:45:17needs to be done

00:45:17on this to see

00:45:18whether this is actually

00:45:19going to be effective.

00:45:20It's relatively cheap

00:45:22though compared

00:45:22to lots of other things.

00:45:25This one I actually

00:45:26kind of like.

00:45:27It's called biochar

00:45:28and biochar

00:45:30is simply taking

00:45:30any plant material

00:45:31and turning it

00:45:32into charcoal.

00:45:33If you heat something

00:45:34without oxygen,

00:45:35it doesn't turn

00:45:36into CO2,

00:45:36it turns into C

00:45:37because there's

00:45:38no O2.

00:45:39There's no air

00:45:39in there to react with

00:45:41and so that's how

00:45:42they make,

00:45:43that's for a thousand

00:45:43years,

00:45:44you put wood

00:45:44in an oven

00:45:45that's really hot

00:45:46and you close off

00:45:47the vent

00:45:47so the air

00:45:48can't get in

00:45:48and eventually

00:45:49it turns into

00:45:49charcoal.

00:45:51Well, that's good

00:45:52because you can

00:45:52take this charcoal

00:45:53and just throw it

00:45:53back down on the

00:45:54ground and it

00:45:55retains water,

00:45:56it acts as a

00:45:56soil stabilizer,

00:45:58not exactly a

00:45:58fertilizer but it

00:45:59helps plants grow

00:46:00and so if you grow

00:46:01really large amounts

00:46:02of biomass

00:46:03or just take all

00:46:04of the leftover

00:46:05biomass from corn

00:46:06or other plants

00:46:07and turn it into

00:46:08charcoal,

00:46:09it won't degrade

00:46:09into CO2.

00:46:10If you do this

00:46:11on a really large

00:46:12scale,

00:46:12you can actually

00:46:13suck carbon out

00:46:14in the atmosphere

00:46:14and it's relatively

00:46:16cheap.

00:46:16There are issues,

00:46:17it does make gas

00:46:18which you can use

00:46:19as a fuel,

00:46:20there's some bad

00:46:22parts of the gas

00:46:22you have to deal

00:46:23with and things

00:46:23like that but

00:46:25compared to a lot

00:46:26of other things

00:46:26happening,

00:46:27it may be one

00:46:27of the more

00:46:29benign forms

00:46:29of fuel.

00:46:33The most

00:46:33obvious thing

00:46:34to do is to

00:46:34reforest the

00:46:35planet.

00:46:36I have a friend

00:46:37who's working

00:46:37on a program

00:46:38where he gives

00:46:38solar cookers

00:46:39to families

00:46:41in India

00:46:42so that they

00:46:43don't go and

00:46:43burn the wood,

00:46:45the dead trees

00:46:46or cut the trees

00:46:46down and they

00:46:49also don't have

00:46:49to walk for miles

00:46:50every day to get

00:46:51the wood and he

00:46:51also gives them

00:46:52rechargeable

00:46:52flashlights so

00:46:53they don't have

00:46:53to burn propane

00:46:54and he also gives

00:46:55them a free

00:46:55cell phone and

00:46:57both the flashlights

00:46:59and cell phone

00:47:00are rechargeable

00:47:01only when the

00:47:02solar cooker is

00:47:03hot so it kind

00:47:04of encourages them

00:47:05to do that and

00:47:06then if they use

00:47:06the solar cooker

00:47:09and they keep

00:47:09the cows

00:47:11off out of

00:47:12the land

00:47:13then they get

00:47:14free cell phone

00:47:15minutes and so

00:47:17this is a and

00:47:17it's doing

00:47:18experiments on

00:47:19this right now

00:47:19it looks pretty

00:47:20promising but this

00:47:20shows what happens

00:47:21when you keep

00:47:21the cows off

00:47:22land for just

00:47:23a few years

00:47:23so it's the

00:47:24same shot

00:47:26basically just

00:47:27a couple years

00:47:27apart.

00:47:30So there's

00:47:31others this

00:47:33one I actually

00:47:33kind of like

00:47:34this is just

00:47:35building machines

00:47:37big expensive

00:47:38machines

00:47:39machines that

00:47:39just suck

00:47:40carbon out

00:47:41of the air

00:47:42and then you

00:47:43compress it

00:47:43and you pump

00:47:44it underground

00:47:45where it came

00:47:45from in the

00:47:46first place

00:47:46you pump it

00:47:47into old

00:47:47oil wells

00:47:48or aquifers

00:47:49and things

00:47:49like that

00:47:50this will cost

00:47:51a trillion

00:47:51dollars at

00:47:52least a year

00:47:53to run

00:47:55and it will

00:47:55be the biggest

00:47:56bargain we ever

00:47:57had if we can

00:47:58do it.

00:47:59There are a

00:48:00bunch of people

00:48:00working on this

00:48:01right now

00:48:02there are small

00:48:04prototypes and

00:48:05things like that

00:48:05and there's a lot

00:48:06of issues I have

00:48:07to actually overcome

00:48:08but this is

00:48:08you know

00:48:10when everything

00:48:11else starts

00:48:11to hit the fan

00:48:12this is something

00:48:12we're probably

00:48:13going to do.

00:48:13I actually think

00:48:14we should do

00:48:15first of all

00:48:15I think we should

00:48:16spend heavily

00:48:17on researching

00:48:17these now

00:48:18because you don't

00:48:19want to find out

00:48:20that the bad

00:48:22effects are worse

00:48:23than whatever

00:48:23you were fixing

00:48:23on these things

00:48:24so we should

00:48:25research them

00:48:25and understand

00:48:26them really well

00:48:26and pick all

00:48:28of the ones

00:48:29that seem like

00:48:29it'll work

00:48:30and try them all

00:48:31and hopefully

00:48:32even if this one

00:48:33can suck 100%

00:48:34of the CO2

00:48:34we need to suck out

00:48:35who knows

00:48:36it might not

00:48:36work well

00:48:37so let's also

00:48:37reforest

00:48:38let's also

00:48:38try biochar

00:48:39let's try them

00:48:40all and see

00:48:41which ones work

00:48:42and which ones

00:48:42don't work

00:48:43so that's the good

00:48:44news is that

00:48:44there are some

00:48:45things on the

00:48:45horizon

00:48:45but again

00:48:46if you use this

00:48:47as an excuse

00:48:47for not limiting

00:48:49your CO2

00:48:51these won't

00:48:51save it

00:48:53so that's actually

00:48:54some positive

00:48:54this is like

00:48:55when I saw

00:48:55when I talked

00:48:56to scientists

00:48:56working on this

00:48:57thing

00:48:57it was sort of

00:48:58like the one

00:48:58uplifting kind of

00:48:59thing I've seen

00:49:00in a long time

00:49:01related to climate

00:49:03so there's some

00:49:04other good news

00:49:05supposedly

00:49:06we're going to

00:49:06be passing

00:49:07the cap and trade

00:49:07law in the United

00:49:08States pretty soon

00:49:09again it won't be

00:49:10enough

00:49:10but it will start

00:49:11us in the right

00:49:11direction

00:49:13it will also

00:49:14no one else

00:49:15is really going

00:49:15China and India

00:49:16are not going to

00:49:17do much about this

00:49:17until we do

00:49:18although the Chinese

00:49:19are pretty smart

00:49:20about this

00:49:20they're already

00:49:21the largest

00:49:22solar power

00:49:23producer in the

00:49:24world

00:49:24making solar panels

00:49:25and they're

00:49:26becoming the

00:49:26largest wind

00:49:27manufacturer

00:49:28wind turbine

00:49:28manufacturer in the

00:49:29world

00:49:29so they're already

00:49:30moving in this

00:49:31direction

00:49:31they know it's

00:49:32the future

00:49:32and they can just

00:49:33decide to do it

00:49:34they don't have

00:49:34all the I guess

00:49:35lobbyists coming

00:49:36to them

00:49:37stopping them

00:49:37from doing

00:49:37what's the right

00:49:38thing

00:49:38so we're really

00:49:40being kind of

00:49:40dumb about

00:49:41all this

00:49:42by not pursuing

00:49:43it aggressively

00:49:44but that's good

00:49:45news if we do

00:49:46that

00:49:46again it won't

00:49:46be enough

00:49:47but it will

00:49:47get us in

00:49:47the right

00:49:47direction

00:49:48the other

00:49:48good news

00:49:49is that this

00:49:50is the biggest

00:49:51economic opportunity

00:49:52ever

00:49:54we are about

00:49:55to change

00:49:55all of the

00:49:57energy and

00:49:57transportation

00:49:58infrastructure

00:49:59of the world

00:49:59in the next

00:50:0050 years

00:50:02that's a lot

00:50:03of money

00:50:04we're invested

00:50:05in a company

00:50:06that's growing

00:50:06oil from

00:50:07algae

00:50:08to make

00:50:08fuel

00:50:09fuel

00:50:10is a

00:50:11one trillion

00:50:12dollar a

00:50:13year business

00:50:14and they think

00:50:15they'll be able

00:50:16to make it

00:50:16cheaper than

00:50:17fossil fuels

00:50:17in just a few

00:50:18years

00:50:19that's pretty

00:50:20good

00:50:20opportunities

00:50:21so

00:50:22there's a lot

00:50:23of opportunity

00:50:24out there

00:50:24now again

00:50:25there's a lot

00:50:25of bad

00:50:25things going

00:50:25to happen

00:50:26but

00:50:26if you

00:50:27understand

00:50:27what it

00:50:28is

00:50:28and what's

00:50:29happening

00:50:30and you

00:50:30take steps

00:50:31to make

00:50:31it better

00:50:32there's

00:50:32tremendous

00:50:33economic

00:50:34opportunities

00:50:34now if you

00:50:35want to learn

00:50:36more about

00:50:37what I was

00:50:37talking about

00:50:38tonight

00:50:38there's a bunch

00:50:39of good books

00:50:40the weather makers

00:50:40is a sort of

00:50:41nice overview

00:50:41it goes beyond

00:50:42an inconvenient

00:50:43truth

00:50:43it covers

00:50:44lots of

00:50:44areas

00:50:45Tim Flannery

00:50:46is a good

00:50:46good writer

00:50:48speed and

00:50:48violence is the

00:50:49scary tipping

00:50:50point stuff

00:50:51that goes into

00:50:51four or five

00:50:52of the major

00:50:52tipping points

00:50:53and it's

00:50:55scary

00:50:55one book

00:50:56I highly

00:50:57highly recommend

00:50:58is Six Degrees

00:51:00Six Degrees

00:51:01as I mentioned

00:51:01earlier

00:51:01explains what

00:51:03changes

00:51:03PPM

00:51:04and degrees

00:51:05C

00:51:05and to what

00:51:06the world

00:51:06will be like

00:51:08at different

00:51:09temperatures

00:51:10it should be

00:51:11required reading

00:51:11for every member

00:51:12of Congress

00:51:13and then

00:51:14Climate Code Red

00:51:15is an interesting

00:51:16book

00:51:16it goes into

00:51:16far more

00:51:17it's like my

00:51:17talk

00:51:18but it goes

00:51:18into far

00:51:19more detail

00:51:19and it's

00:51:20referenced

00:51:20like a report

00:51:21with footnotes

00:51:21and things like

00:51:22that

00:51:22you can go

00:51:23to the internet

00:51:23and download it

00:51:24I think they do

00:51:25charge for it

00:51:26now

00:51:26but it's

00:51:26pretty detailed

00:51:27if you really

00:51:28want to get

00:51:28into that

00:51:30if you'd like

00:51:31copies of

00:51:33the slides

00:51:35or a video

00:51:36of me doing

00:51:36an early version

00:51:37of the talk

00:51:37there's going to be

00:51:38hopefully a new one

00:51:39up on the internet

00:51:39soon

00:51:40or you want

00:51:40links to references

00:51:41and the books

00:51:42and things like that

00:51:43if you go to

00:51:44my website

00:51:45climateplace.org

00:51:47and you can

00:51:48download slides

00:51:49and you should

00:51:50go around giving

00:51:51this talk

00:51:51yourself

00:51:51tell everybody

00:51:52about it

00:51:54and I want

00:51:55to thank you

00:51:56for listening

00:51:57and opening

00:51:58it up to

00:51:58questions

00:52:06yes

00:52:10sure

00:52:14there you go

00:52:16again

00:52:16if you go to

00:52:17climateplace.org

00:52:18there's direct links

00:52:19to the books

00:52:20and things

00:52:20and you get

00:52:21all that information

00:52:22yes

00:52:50well I'm

00:52:52I'm against

00:52:53carbon

00:53:13well I should

00:53:14just mention

00:53:15for the

00:53:15so everyone

00:53:16can hear

00:53:16for the

00:53:18recording

00:53:18that the

00:53:19question

00:53:19well

00:53:19sort of the

00:53:20question

00:53:20the comment

00:53:20is

00:53:21why

00:53:21are we

00:53:21talking

00:53:21about

00:53:22nuclear

00:53:22reactors

00:53:22because

00:53:22they're

00:53:23carbon

00:53:23neutral

00:53:23and

00:53:24as a form

00:53:25of energy

00:53:25first of all

00:53:26I am

00:53:27I think

00:53:28CO2

00:53:28is the most

00:53:30dangerous

00:53:30thing

00:53:32and the risks

00:53:32of nuclear

00:53:33are nothing

00:53:34nothing compared

00:53:35to those

00:53:35so I am

00:53:36for doing

00:53:36anything

00:53:37that gets

00:53:38us away

00:53:38from CO2

00:53:39including

00:53:39nuclear

00:53:40from what

00:53:41I know

00:53:41about

00:53:41nuclear

00:53:42I think

00:53:42it's

00:53:42difficult

00:53:43to implement

00:53:43at the

00:53:44scale

00:53:44we need

00:53:45but I don't

00:53:46have a problem

00:53:46with doing

00:53:47it

00:53:47and there's

00:53:47actually

00:53:47lots of

00:53:48interesting

00:53:48small scale

00:53:49things

00:53:49that they're

00:53:49working

00:53:50on

00:53:50I didn't

00:53:50put it

00:53:51in there

00:53:51but I'm

00:53:51not against

00:53:52it at

00:53:52all

00:53:52and I

00:53:53think

00:53:53we should

00:53:53do

00:53:53you know

00:53:54the risk

00:53:54of

00:53:54Chernobyl

00:53:55is nothing

00:53:56compared

00:53:56to the risk

00:53:56of sort

00:53:57of everyone

00:53:57dying

00:53:57so you know

00:53:58and they're

00:53:59getting better

00:53:59at the safety

00:54:00issues and things

00:54:01like that

00:54:01so I think

00:54:02the real

00:54:02evil thing

00:54:04out there

00:54:04is CO2

00:54:05and so I

00:54:05don't actually

00:54:06disagree with

00:54:06you

00:54:06I didn't

00:54:07cover all

00:54:08the solutions

00:54:08there's by

00:54:09the way

00:54:09a lot more

00:54:10about

00:54:10in fact

00:54:11I give a

00:54:11whole talk

00:54:12on energy

00:54:12solutions

00:54:13it's not

00:54:13in this

00:54:14talk

00:54:14yes

00:54:18yeah there's

00:54:19issues about

00:54:19enough of your

00:54:20range

00:54:20there's thorium

00:54:20which is not

00:54:21you know

00:54:22you can't turn

00:54:22into bombs

00:54:23and things

00:54:23so there's

00:54:23other things

00:54:24but again

00:54:25you could

00:54:25at least

00:54:25you know

00:54:26France gets

00:54:26a lot of

00:54:27its energy

00:54:27from nuclear

00:54:28and things

00:54:28like that

00:54:29I think

00:54:29there's

00:54:30time and

00:54:30cost issues

00:54:31too

00:54:31and a lot

00:54:32of people

00:54:32argue that

00:54:32if you are

00:54:33going to do

00:54:33nuclear

00:54:34you might as

00:54:34well just

00:54:34do wind

00:54:35and solar

00:54:35with some

00:54:35energy

00:54:36storage

00:54:36because it's

00:54:36actually

00:54:37cheaper

00:54:37you know

00:54:38forget the

00:54:40you know

00:54:40safety issues

00:54:41or anything

00:54:41like that

00:54:42so I mean

00:54:42I think

00:54:43there's

00:54:43some

00:54:43arguments

00:54:43like that

00:54:45yeah

00:55:14well I don't

00:55:15also you know

00:55:15you have to

00:55:16look at

00:55:16there's also

00:55:17CO2 given

00:55:17off in the

00:55:18making of

00:55:18the panels

00:55:19and my

00:55:20understanding

00:55:20I don't know

00:55:21about that

00:55:21particular one

00:55:21it's like a

00:55:22year or so

00:55:23before you're

00:55:24sort of back

00:55:24to saving

00:55:25CO2

00:55:26considering the

00:55:26amount of

00:55:27energy that

00:55:27goes into

00:55:27producing

00:55:33well those by

00:55:34the way

00:55:34one reason I

00:55:35think we have

00:55:35to spend

00:55:36I mean I'm

00:55:36not sure that's

00:55:37true by the

00:55:37way but if

00:55:38it is true

00:55:38that's why we

00:55:39have to spend

00:55:39lots of money

00:55:40on research

00:55:40so that we

00:55:41don't go down

00:55:41for example

00:55:42corn ethanol

00:55:43turned out to

00:55:43be probably

00:55:44worse for the

00:55:45environment

00:55:45than in terms

00:55:46of net CO2

00:55:48when you take

00:55:48into account

00:55:49land use

00:55:49and food

00:55:50and stuff

00:55:51like that

00:55:51so you know

00:55:52you can

00:55:53now it may be

00:55:54some good

00:55:54effects in that

00:55:55it paved the

00:55:56way for other

00:55:56things but

00:55:58it's really worth

00:55:59spending lots of

00:56:00money again

00:56:00relatively small

00:56:01amounts of money

00:56:01compared to

00:56:02building power

00:56:03plants everywhere

00:56:04but on research

00:56:05to understand all

00:56:06these issues

00:56:06so that we make

00:56:07the right choices

00:56:07other people

00:56:08argue and I

00:56:10agree with them

00:56:10is that we

00:56:11have to really

00:56:12think about the

00:56:13amount of CO2

00:56:14we can

00:56:16that's left to

00:56:16release in the

00:56:17atmosphere before

00:56:18we really got to

00:56:18get down to

00:56:19zero and that

00:56:20has to be

00:56:20dedicated to

00:56:21building all the

00:56:21green technologies

00:56:23right if we

00:56:24just kind of use

00:56:25it for powering

00:56:26cars and stuff

00:56:27like that and

00:56:28then when we

00:56:28realize we have

00:56:29to build solar

00:56:29panels or whatever

00:56:31you know wind

00:56:32power or these

00:56:33kind of things

00:56:33it takes energy

00:56:34to do that and

00:56:34initially it'll be

00:56:35CO2 because we

00:56:37have you know

00:56:37fossil fuel power

00:56:38plants eventually

00:56:39they'll be replaced

00:56:39by the renewables

00:56:40so those are

00:56:41some of the issues

00:56:42well in front

00:56:43there first

00:56:49yeah

00:56:52well that

00:56:53well that's

00:56:53that particular

00:56:54chart is 650,000

00:56:55years they have

00:56:56gone farther

00:56:57you know how

00:56:57they get that

00:56:57they drill holes

00:56:58in the Arctic

00:56:58and every level

00:57:01they can there's

00:57:01trapped gas in

00:57:02the ice and

00:57:03they can measure

00:57:04the CO2 content

00:57:05in the ice

00:57:05and look at

00:57:06ionization to

00:57:07figure out the

00:57:07temperature and

00:57:08things like that

00:57:08that's by the

00:57:09way I didn't

00:57:09cover a lot of

00:57:10the basics about

00:57:12climate change and

00:57:13how we know what

00:57:13we know I think

00:57:14the movie An

00:57:15Inconvenient Truth

00:57:16does a really good

00:57:17job of that and

00:57:18I certainly recommend

00:57:18anyone who hasn't

00:57:20seen it to see it

00:57:20it's a lot it's

00:57:21really good about

00:57:22the why and the

00:57:23hows and stuff it

00:57:24doesn't go into

00:57:24what's going to

00:57:25happen very much

00:57:26but in terms of

00:57:26the basic

00:57:28educational stuff

00:57:28about climate

00:57:29change which I

00:57:30kind of skip in

00:57:30this talk it's

00:57:32actually pretty good

00:57:32so he talks about

00:57:33that and in books

00:57:34and I forget how

00:57:35far they can go

00:57:36back now but

00:57:37it's and they

00:57:37use and they

00:57:38can go back

00:57:39many many you

00:57:39know tens of

00:57:40millions of years

00:57:41using other

00:57:42sediments of the

00:57:43ocean and rock

00:57:44and things like

00:57:45that yeah that

00:57:47is that is

00:57:48actually that

00:57:48was the one

00:57:49chart I have

00:57:50from the actual

00:57:50talk yeah

00:58:05agreement

00:58:07yeah

00:58:22so the

00:58:31well so the

00:58:34comment is that

00:58:36while climate

00:58:37scientists agree

00:58:38with what I'm

00:58:38saying here that

00:58:39other scientists

00:58:40like Freeman

00:58:40Dyson disagree

00:58:41first of all if

00:58:42your child had

00:58:44cancer you would

00:58:45probably take them

00:58:46to a doctor not a

00:58:48car mechanic not a

00:58:51statistician probably

00:58:52take them to a

00:58:52doctor and not just

00:58:53any doctor you take

00:58:54them to an

00:58:55oncologist and not

00:58:56just any oncologist

00:58:57you probably take

00:58:58them to a pediatric

00:58:59oncologist you

00:59:00probably do that

00:59:01this is the same

00:59:02thing the people that

00:59:04know what the

00:59:04problem is are

00:59:05climate scientists

00:59:0697% of climate

00:59:09scientists agree

00:59:10essentially with what

00:59:11I'm saying here

00:59:11today now Freeman

00:59:14Dyson doesn't and

00:59:15there are

00:59:15meteorologists that

00:59:16disagree there are

00:59:17geologists that

00:59:18disagree but you

00:59:20can find people

00:59:21disagreeing about

00:59:22everything this stuff

00:59:23by the way the fact

00:59:24that CO2 heats the

00:59:25atmosphere this is

00:59:27like physics it's

00:59:28not there's no

00:59:29controversy whatsoever

00:59:31you can measure it in

00:59:32the laboratory right

00:59:32there's no controversy

00:59:34whatsoever it's the

00:59:36only controversy is

00:59:37how much will the

00:59:38atmosphere heat up

00:59:39but it's already

00:59:40heating up and all

00:59:42the data so far

00:59:43shows that it's

00:59:45actually worse than

00:59:47the conservative

00:59:48predictions before the

00:59:49actual data that's

00:59:50actually the Arctic is

00:59:51melting much faster

00:59:53you can't explain that

00:59:54any other way except

00:59:55for soot perhaps

00:59:58say again

01:00:11well the temperatures in

01:00:12the last you know most

01:00:14of the temperatures in

01:00:14the last 10 years have

01:00:15been the hottest ever

01:00:161998 was a little

01:00:17warmer I'm going to

01:00:18give you a prediction

01:00:18right now the next

01:00:20five years some of the

01:00:22years in the next five

01:00:23years will be the

01:00:24hottest years ever in

01:00:26recent history because

01:00:29two things that happened

01:00:30recently to keep the

01:00:31temperatures by the way

01:00:32last year 2008 was a

01:00:36quote relatively cool

01:00:37year still one of the

01:00:38top 10 hottest years

01:00:39ever but a little cooler

01:00:41than 1998 so people

01:00:42thought it's getting

01:00:42cooler now two things

01:00:44have been happening

01:00:44it's been La Nina cycle

01:00:46in the last five years

01:00:48and the sun has sunspots

01:00:50that go in 11 year

01:00:51cycles and we're at a

01:00:52solar minimum those two

01:00:53things added together

01:00:54it's cooled the earth

01:00:55tiny bit and made

01:00:57those last couple years

01:00:59a little tiny bit

01:01:00cooler than they would

01:01:01have been and only a

01:01:02tiny bit cooler than

01:01:03they've been in 1998

01:01:04but still far warmer

01:01:06than the last 30 years

01:01:07ago let's say the next

01:01:09five years both those

01:01:10those things are

01:01:10reversing it's not it's

01:01:11turning to a lot and

01:01:12let me finish into el

01:01:13Nino year it's going to

01:01:14warm up already and

01:01:16also the sun's going to

01:01:17start putting out a

01:01:18little bit more those

01:01:19two things are going to

01:01:19put us back on track

01:01:20and so I have to say

01:01:23personally these

01:01:25scientists that say

01:01:26these non-climate

01:01:28scientists who say

01:01:29this stuff are wrong

01:01:31you know Einstein when

01:01:32he came to the United

01:01:33States the Germans were

01:01:34kind of unhappy with

01:01:34him you know he's

01:01:35pretty famous for his

01:01:36theory of relativity

01:01:37so they put out a book

01:01:39100 scientists against

01:01:43relativity and someone

01:01:44asked Einstein about it

01:01:46he said well if I was

01:01:48wrong it would only take

01:01:50one so the fact that

01:01:52they have these lists of

01:01:53scientists who disagree

01:01:54they're just getting all

01:01:56the people that don't

01:01:57know what they're

01:01:58talking about to sign

01:01:59something that's a

01:01:59really easy thing to do

01:02:00climate scientists you

01:02:02talk to them they're the

01:02:02ones studying it every

01:02:03day by the way they

01:02:05don't want this to be

01:02:06true I mean this this

01:02:08concept that they have

01:02:10some reason to do this

01:02:12they would win a no if

01:02:13someone would prove this

01:02:14is wrong you'd get a

01:02:14Nobel Prize there's no

01:02:16incentive to say this

01:02:17unless it's true so I

01:02:19have to say disagree

01:02:20here we go it was

01:02:25never really what

01:02:26nuclear winter thank

01:02:27God it didn't happen

01:02:28you know what nuclear

01:02:28winter you're talking

01:02:29about global cooling

01:02:39that that is true if we

01:02:41took all the pollution

01:02:42out of the atmosphere

01:02:43tomorrow the temperature

01:02:45would double the global

01:02:47warming temperature would

01:02:48double it would be a go

01:02:49up another degree

01:02:49immediately so the

01:02:51pollution by nuclear

01:02:52winter means you have a

01:02:53nuclear war and you

01:02:55block out sunlight and

01:02:56everything dies that will

01:02:57still happen if we have a

01:02:58nuclear war right you're

01:03:00talking about pollution

01:03:00so it is true that

01:03:02pollution has artificially

01:03:03been cooling the planet

01:03:04off and you can even look

01:03:06back after the war we

01:03:08industrialized and the

01:03:09temperature dropped and

01:03:10then we passed the clean

01:03:11air fast and then right

01:03:13after that the temperature

01:03:13started going up again it

01:03:14was going to go up anyway

01:03:15because climate change is

01:03:16catching up to the

01:03:17pollution and now it's

01:03:18ahead but that's a problem

01:03:20actually as we clean up the

01:03:21air and switch to

01:03:22renewable fuels we're going

01:03:24to have less pollution

01:03:25that's going to cause the

01:03:26temperature to go up so

01:03:26that's actually things are

01:03:28complicated

01:03:35that's what geoengineering

01:03:37is that's what putting

01:03:38sulfates in the air is it's

01:03:40artificially putting smoke in

01:03:43the air to reflect sunlight

01:03:45now there are other bad

01:03:45things that happen when you

01:03:46do that but that is a near

01:03:49term solution if you want to

01:03:51call it that to maybe

01:03:52preventing the Arctic from

01:03:54melting too fast but you

01:03:55better suck this you better

01:03:57be spending your time really

01:03:58fast sucking the CO2 out of

01:03:59the air because that's only

01:04:00essentially a temporary

01:04:01solution but I don't

01:04:02disagree I mean that's

01:04:03right

01:04:04right

01:04:04yeah

01:04:05yeah

01:04:08yeah

01:04:24yeah

01:04:25yeah

01:04:30yeah

01:04:41Well, I think most people talk about an 80 to 90 percent reduction in CO2 by 2050, and we really

01:04:48better do that.

01:04:50I think it turns out you can do in a short run, there's so much you can do.

01:04:56I mean, so much, I mean, we put out twice as much CO2 per person as anywhere else in the

01:05:00world as ever, like Australia.

01:05:01Even Europe, compared to Europe, we put out twice as much as Europe, five times more than the average Chinese.

01:05:07So there's a lot we can do just by thinking smarter.

01:05:10You can change your light bulbs at home tomorrow, and that would have a huge effect.

01:05:15I think there's, I don't know when it kicks in, but they're banning incandescent bulbs.

01:05:18That's a really smart thing to do.

01:05:19You save money, you save energy.

01:05:21So there's a lot of things you can do right now that might have a longer payback, but are still

01:05:25financially smart things to do.

01:05:27And you can get down 20 percent.

01:05:29Most companies that have done this have found out they think, you know, Walmart's a great example.

01:05:34They did all these things to help their PR, and they ended up saving hundreds of millions of dollars, too,

01:05:39at the same time.

01:05:40So just thinking smarter.

01:05:43And what's good about the personal stuff, although it's not enough, because even if you do it, and not everybody

01:05:48does it, it won't be enough.

01:05:49But everyone can do it very quickly.

01:05:52Say again?

01:05:52Are you serious about the public?

01:05:54What things are going to have to do now?

01:05:55What?

01:05:56The mission doesn't make big ones.

01:05:58First of all, oh, it's not a girl that died.

01:06:00Oh, but this is a mess that it's not a dude.

01:06:02How do you do that?

01:06:04Well, what is wrong?

01:06:05How do you think things are going down 20 years now?

01:06:08Things are going down 20 years.

01:06:10Therefore, we are going, I hope, we are actually going to build green technology.

01:06:16If you or someone invest in that and have them at the ready when the world starts to demand them,

01:06:23you will do well.

01:06:27It gives a proper incentive.

01:06:30Well, look, there's different ways of looking at it.

01:06:35You can look at it like we're fighting a war, which I do think is, by the way, a reasonable

01:06:38way to think about it.

01:06:39So that takes that kind of effort.

01:06:41And that's directed at the top.

01:06:42This is what we're going to do.

01:06:43I don't care what you say.

01:06:45This is what industry, we're closing down the car plants.

01:06:47We're going to turn them into a wind farm, wind turbine factory, whatever.

01:06:51So you can do that kind of thing, too.

01:06:52And I think we should do some measure of that.

01:06:54But in the meantime, until we do, it seems to me that actually private industry is doing the most with

01:07:00some government incentives.

01:07:01That's the way it's set up right now.

01:07:02By the way, in places like China, in places like China, they're just telling people what to do.

01:07:08Not enough.

01:07:15One of our companies is doing something.

01:07:16Again, it's only part of the solution.

01:07:18It's not going to be enough, but it's part of the solution.

01:07:24There's a couple of scientists I know.

01:07:26One's out of Columbia, and I forget where the other guy is out of.

01:07:29And, you know, it's not, it's nearly just in a research stage right now.

01:07:34Columbia is one of them.

01:07:38Yeah.

01:07:38That's it early.

01:07:39By the way, it doesn't look like that now.

01:07:40That's an early artish rendering.

01:07:42But, you know, it gives you the idea.

01:07:43You know, it gives you the idea.

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