00:00Hi, you're on the Paulada na Cara channel.
00:02My name is Marcos.
00:03Today I'm just going to talk about trends that some research has identified.
00:07And these polls came out between yesterday and today.
00:10And I'm going to explain why leading candidates don't go to debates.
00:15And you'll understand.
00:18The Pauvé Institute released this information this morning on the UOL website.
00:22Lula and Flávio are technically tied in both the first and second rounds.
00:26For those in love out there?
00:27Calm down, there's a reason.
00:30This questionnaire was answered online.
00:34The survey interviewed 5,000 voters for the online questionnaire.
00:37between September 20th and 23rd.
00:40The margin of error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
00:43That's a pretty large margin of error.
00:44And the confidence level is 95%.
00:46It is registered with the TSE under number BR 09587-2026.
00:52Look here, first round of voting is underway.
00:54Flávio Bolsonaro of the PR party has 43%.
00:57Lula from the PT party also has 43%.
00:59But look at Renan Santos, who is a candidate who is 100% from the digital world.
01:03It reaches 8%.
01:04It's the survey where he scores the highest.
01:06Sorry, Augusto Cury.
01:07There are two.
01:08Ronaldo Caiado, one.
01:09Zema, one.
01:10The others, one.
01:11Blank, null.
01:12Not even 1% will vote.
01:13Undecided, 1%.
01:14And then we move on to the second-round simulation.
01:17Here, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) appears with 48%.
01:20Lula with 45%.
01:22Blank, null.
01:236% will not vote for undecided voters, while 1% will be undecided.
01:25This poll indicates that Flávio Bolsonaro is 3 percentage points ahead.
01:30Lula's interaction with the public who routinely access the internet and answer questionnaires.
01:35online.
01:35But this isn't the only place where a similar phenomenon has occurred.
01:39Here on the Poder 360 website, Poderdata AIA reported that Lula has 43% against Flávio's 42%.
01:47in the first round.
01:48Then we go down to see the history.
01:50In the previous poll, Flávio Bolsonaro had 39%, and Lula had 41%.
01:54But wait, it says 43% and 42% here.
01:56Yes, the votes for the minor candidates are migrating to the major candidates.
02:01And they are migrating to Flávio Bolsonaro at a faster rate.
02:05But why is this happening?
02:06Augusto Cury is centrist, center-right.
02:09Fernand Santos, whose MBL founded the Missão party, systematically voted for all agendas.
02:17From the PT (Workers' Party) in the Bolsonaro era, that is, they are left-wing people, but they campaign as if they were.
02:21On the right, it has 3%.
02:23Ronaldo Caiado, who is center-right, 2%.
02:25Romeu Zema, who is right-wing, even more so than the Bolsonaro family, 1%.
02:29In the previous poll, these guys had 12 percentage points of the voting intentions.
02:35And most of their voters will migrate to Bolsonaro.
02:38So the trend is for the difference to become very small or even reversed in favor of Bolsonaro.
02:43Because those at the bottom are left-leaning, they have an additional 3 percentage points.
02:46And then when we look at the updated version, 43, 42, you can see that the little ones...
02:53They continue as they are, until they reach zero, while the other significant ones don't take off.
02:59They are starting to lose votes.
03:00And the one who is absorbing the most votes is Flávio Bolsonaro.
03:04According to the Futura Institute, Flávio Bolsonaro's support increased, reaching 40.4% of voting intentions.
03:09and overtook Lula in the first round.
03:11Lula's approval rating remains stable at 38.4%.
03:14Are they both within the technical tie?
03:16They are.
03:16And again, the phenomenon is occurring.
03:19The smaller parties are losing votes, but they are losing mainly to Flávio.
03:22Lula will probably see some growth in his popularity between now and next week.
03:26But it will be at a lower rate.
03:28And then the same poll released that Flávio Bolsonaro has 49.4% and Lula 43.7% in the second round.
03:36shift.
03:37In other words, here is the law of margin of error.
03:40However, Lula appears to be in a statistical tie or at a disadvantage in all second-round scenarios tested by the study.
03:46The Futura Inteligência survey interviewed 2,000 voters between September 19th and 23rd.
03:50Through computer-assisted telephone interviews, the margin of error is 2.2 percentage points.
03:56with a 95% confidence interval.
03:57It is registered with the TSE under number 05268 slash 2026.
04:02And according to that institute, Lula's ceiling is actually around 43%, just look at that.
04:08Against Flávio, 43.7%.
04:10Against Caiado, 42.4%.
04:13Against Zema, 43.3%.
04:15Against Augusto Cury, 41%.
04:17Against Renan Santos, 43.8%.
04:19In other words, based on the audience figures this institute found, Lula's ceiling is indeed 43%.
04:23And once again, it's Flávio who is absorbing some of the votes from the Danicos in the second round.
04:28There's a question.
04:28What can Lula do?
04:29What won't he say in the debate?
04:30Poder 360 is the subject matter.
04:32Lula is not expected to attend the TV debate.
04:34And there's a reason for...
04:35Actually, there are two reasons for that.
04:37First, there's the issue of age.
04:38Oh, what are you talking about?
04:39What does age have to do with the debate?
04:41As you get older, the tendency to lose concentration increases.
04:46You continue to maintain your intelligence, you continue to maintain your ability to debate.
04:53But you could make a mistake that your opponent could exploit.
04:57That's normal.
04:58However, this chance increases with age.
05:00So, if you can't steal votes from others, then there's no point in going.
05:05So, that's the first reason.
05:06Second, if you are in the lead and have already secured a spot in the second round, even without campaigning,
05:13So there's no point in taking the risk and giving your opponent ammunition to attack you.
05:18Because you can say everything perfectly, everything nicely, but then they come along and raise some issue.
05:22Or they invent a story based on what you said, claiming it's a lie.
05:25Or that you didn't do what you said you would do, and so on.
05:29So, it doesn't make sense for either of them to go, unless both of them show up.
05:34Because whoever shows up will be a punching bag for the others.
05:36And this logic becomes quite evident...
05:41When we look, it's research for the Rio de Janeiro election.
05:44Oh, what do you mean?
05:45Eduardo Paes has a great chance of winning in the first round.
05:48Because the undecided voter rate is high in Rio de Janeiro.
05:51But look at the graph.
05:55That frontrunner is Eduardo Paes, who was comfortably in the lead with 45% approval ratings at the beginning of August.
06:04And now it's at 43.1%.
06:06It didn't make any difference to him in those debates.
06:09But the second place was still undecided.
06:11That way it was worthwhile for the others to go.
06:14And look what happens.
06:15Douglas Ruas, from the PL party, is Bolsonaro's candidate.
06:18Eduardo Paes is Lula's candidate.
06:20Douglas Ruas introduced himself to the public during the debates.
06:22And he did well.
06:23He went from 15% to 26.7%.
06:26He basically stole votes from Antony Garotinho.
06:30And he didn't let the dwarfs grow.
06:31And he even presented himself to the undecided voter who was looking for a candidate.
06:35To occupy the space left by Bolsonaro's supporters.
06:37And he found it.
06:38In the sum of the smaller players here, plus Douglas Ruas,
06:43There's a lot of emphasis on Eduardo Paes's value.
06:45Here, look.
06:46This is the scene without Antony Garotinho.
06:49Without Antony Garotinho, Eduardo Paes's approval rating drops to 46.3%.
06:52Douglas Ruas, 28.8%.
06:54But look at these little guys over here.
06:56André Marinho, from Novo, 2.8%.
06:57Ciro Garcia, from the PST party, 1.6%.
06:59And I don't know what else, papapá.
07:00You add them up here, these five minor candidates, six.
07:05They barely reach 10%.
07:07In other words, without Antony Garotinho,
07:09It was a certainty that Eduardo Paes would win in the first round.
07:11Like Antony Garotinho, in that back and forth, back and forth,
07:14It's under judicial review; there may be a second round.
07:17And that's where the debate can get complicated.
07:19Ah, but the research you're talking about is from...
07:21This research is from Paraná Pesquisas.
07:24Yes, they were interviewed...
07:26Let me check this out properly.
07:271,600 voters were interviewed between September 20th and 22nd.
07:31with a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
07:35It is registered with the TSE under protocol RJ 04036-2026.
07:41And Coaeste also released its research yesterday.
07:45She interviewed 1,302 voters.
07:49And its margin of error is 3 percentage points.
07:51That's a pretty large margin of error.
07:52Look how interesting this graph is.
07:55Governor, first round of voting is underway.
07:56Because of the debates.
07:58Douglas Rua went from 14% to 18% and then 23%.
08:03The debates did him good.
08:04The number of undecided voters fell from 20% to 16%.
08:07Blank, null, will not vote.
08:08It dropped from 16% to 12%.
08:10Antony Garotinho didn't grow up.
08:12It went up from 7% to 8%.
08:13In other words, nothing changed.
08:15And the dwarfs couldn't grow.
08:17Furthermore, William Siri from PSOL lost 2 percentage points.
08:22It went to 1.
08:233 went to 1.
08:24And Eduardo Paes, he had 37%.
08:26It went up to 39% and then down to 36%.
08:27In other words, it's fluctuating between 36% and 39%.
08:30So I would say, I'd bet 38%.
08:32So when you add it all up here, look.
08:34Douglas Rua, 23%.
08:36For him, the debates were good for him.
08:37With Antony Garotinho's 8%, it goes up to 31%.
08:39When you add up the smaller companies here, it goes up to 36%.
08:44Again.
08:45Eduardo Paes has a real chance of winning in the first round.
08:47However, the number of undecided voters is high.
08:5016%.
08:50So it's possible that Douglas Rua will be able to convince the majority of undecided voters to vote for him and not...
08:57no Eduardo Paes.
08:58And with that, force a second round.
08:59But for that to happen, he needs a debate.
09:01He needs the debate to get noticed, to show himself, to say who he is.
09:04And what's the problem with the debate?
09:05That's because you could make a mistake.
09:07There was a debate for senator here in the state of São Paulo.
09:09Look what happened when Simone Tebet made a slip-up.
09:13The political class needs to steal less.
09:15Allow me to disagree; you'll have to watch your own speech later.
09:18And you'll agree with me.
09:19The political class doesn't have to steal less, as you said.
09:21The political class cannot steal.
09:22Exactly.
09:23The lady said that we need to steal less.
09:24You absolutely cannot steal.
09:26And perhaps it is this tolerance of corruption that ultimately makes you inconsistent.
09:31You were part of the government that you criticized.
09:33That is the Lula government, which is admittedly corrupt.
09:37Poisonous, he is poisonous.
09:41No politician would ever let slip a phrase like that.
09:44I've seen many election campaigns destroyed because of a poorly worded phrase.
09:49And Simone Tebet, who had a great chance of being elected senator for São Paulo,
09:54He may have thrown his chance of victory in the trash can.
09:57He might have thrown it in the trash can with a phrase like that.
09:59Do you understand why the main candidates, those who are guaranteed a spot in the second round,
10:04Do they tend not to appear in the debate?
10:05If you're behind by a small margin and need to steal votes, or at least protect them,
10:09You're going to the debate.
10:10But you can make a mistake like that.
10:11Now, for those who aren't guaranteed a spot in the second round of the executive branch,
10:14or doesn't have a very large advantage, in a Senate election, for example.
10:19Debates are essential.
10:20Debates are fundamental, for better or for worse.
10:23If you want to protect a small advantage, or steal votes from others, it pays off.
10:28Now, when you're way ahead, exposing yourself is practically asking to get shot.
10:32Well, guys, that's it.
10:33If you enjoyed the video, please leave a like, comment, and share.
10:39Help me with this channel project.
10:41Thanks.
