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八点最热报 | 马六甲州选战鼓擂响，巫伊两党却陷入“战利品分赃难题”！伊党开出要战16席筹码，甚至直接插旗首长阿都拉勿夫的堡垒区，惹怒坚守21席的巫统。学者黄进发直言，按大选得票国盟占优，伊党开价符合常理，若蓝绿互不信任破局开打三角战，国盟极可能直捣黄龙单独执政让甲州变天！你认为巫伊能合得来吗？留言聊聊！（主播: 庄文杰）
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00:00A reminder before watching the video
00:01Popular websites have more content
00:04Malacca will finally disband.
00:05Knocking on the battle stock
00:07The political arena is paying close attention to UMNO and one-party rule.
00:09Can the cooperation model between Johor and Negeri Sembilan be replicated?
00:12However, political scientist Awang Azman and Huang Jingfa spoke in unison.
00:16Negotiations in Malacca are far more difficult than ever before.
00:19We cannot simply rely on the old framework of cooperation between Johor and Negeri Sembilan witch doctors.
00:24shelf
00:24They believed that the two parties could compromise and reach a model of one-on-one confrontation with Simon.
00:28Mode
00:29The reason why this negotiation was difficult
00:31The essence lies in how to divide the spoils and plunder the war prizes.
00:35The top leaders of both parties appear to be willing to cooperate.
00:37However, the core conflict is no longer about the fundamental principle of whether or not to cooperate.
00:42The real question is who will be able to secure more seats that will allow them to win.
00:47So why is it so difficult to allocate seats?
00:50We need to analyze this from the perspective of the past two elections.
00:53Five years ago, in 2021, when Malacca held its weekly election...
00:57With their morale soaring, UMNO won 21 out of 28 state assembly seats.
01:01seat
01:01At that time, the Islamic Party had zero members.
01:04But a year later
01:05During the November 2022 election
01:07The six parliamentary seats to be contested in the Malacca area
01:10Simon won three seats
01:11Perikatan Nasional wins three seats
01:13This time, it was the Barisan Nasional UMNO that got zero points.
01:16The three seats won by the National Alliance
01:18Two of the seats were won by the Islamic Party.
01:21Therefore, the Islamic Party advocated...
01:23Results of seat allocation
01:24The focus should be on the results of the recent national elections.
01:27Instead of using the 2021 election results
01:31Malacca One Party State Chairman Zulkifli had previously made statements
01:34The Islamic Party is strong enough to contest 16 seats.
01:37But Malacca Chief Minister Abdul Rauf said
01:39UMNO wins 21 state assembly seats
01:42They will not back down.
01:44What makes UMNO even more unhappy is
01:46PAS vows to fight for 16 seats
01:48This also includes Abdul Rauf's own constituency.
01:51Danjong-Bidara
01:53Azman believes
01:54PAS declares it will fight for 16 seats.
01:56They even took the state governor's stronghold, Danjong-Bidara.
01:59Add to your pocket
02:00It's more of a gesture at the negotiating table.
02:04Their open-shelf stance and bargaining chips
02:06The goal is to be within the national strategic framework
02:09Inflate one's own value
02:11Huang Jianfa believes
02:12The possibility of the Islamic Party governing alone cannot be ruled out.
02:16And if PAS wins in Melaka
02:18This could very well be the prelude to a reversal in the national election.
02:22He analyzed
02:23In 2021
02:25Voting at age 18 and automatic voter registration have not yet been implemented.
02:28If we take the votes from the 15th national election
02:31One seat from 28 states
02:33Of the 24 seats held by Malay voters
02:36The number of seats held by national goalkeepers reached 14.
02:38Barisan Nasional only has 10 seats
02:40therefore
02:41Fueled by a surge of young voters and the momentum of the election.
02:45PAS is demanding 16 seats.
02:47Completely in line with common sense regarding strength
02:49This is also what PAS rushed to do.
02:51Danzhongbidara directly
02:53Go straight to slap UMNO in the face
02:55The trump card of never giving face to Barisan Nasional
03:24Chinese subtitles provided
03:26Because UMNO and PAS are facing [opposition/challenges] in Malacca.
03:30In fact, it was a prelude to the national election.
03:34Why do you see UMNO and PAS now?
03:37The negotiations were so difficult
03:38Because although the two factions merging is advantageous to them
03:41But how do you distribute the likes?
03:43How to distribute the benefits
03:45So this is where they got stuck.
03:48This is different from Johor and Semerang.
03:51Negotiations between UMNO and Islamabad have reached a stalemate.
03:55Because there is no clear winner at the moment.
03:59Huang Jinfa during the interview
04:00Using data from the 2022 general election to calculate
04:03If the voters at that time were state or federal
04:05If everyone votes for the same camp
04:06Perikatan Nasional can sweep through Malacca.
04:0924 out of 28 states
04:11That's an absolute advantage of more than two-thirds.
04:13Western Alliance will actually be last.
04:16They only managed to retain the four seats the DAP won in the urban constituencies.
04:19But what's interesting is...
04:20Of the 24 seats in the Perikatan Nasional coalition, [name missing]
04:22The Perikatan Nasional coalition holds a majority of 14 seats.
04:25Barisan Nasional only has 10 seats
04:27Goldman Sachs believes
04:28The Perikatan Nasional coalition, riding the wave of young voters and the momentum of the general election,
04:31Demanding 16 seats is entirely in line with common sense and strength.
04:34They even demanded that the flag be planted by the regional governor, Adulaouf.
04:37Danjung Bidara State Seminary
04:39It's like the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition is completely disregarding the Barisan Nasional (B
04:42Therefore, the election results are the most indicative indicator.
04:45That indicative result tells you
04:47Perikatan Nasional is stronger than Barisan Nasional
04:49In other words, as soon as the new voters come in...
04:51The Barisan Nasional's advantage disappeared.
04:52The voting results show that these people tend to vote for PAS and Perikatan Nasional.
04:59It assumes that voters at the time were running a joint national and state election.
05:04If they vote for the same political party
05:06Of the 24 seats, the Perikatan Nasional coalition holds a majority of 14.
05:11Barisan Nasional only holds an advantage with 14 seats.
05:14So the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition needs to say they want to fight for 16 seats.
05:18From the perspective of strength, it is reasonable.
05:20Because it is 14 against 10
05:22PAS might think I've made a good bet.
05:25Because I was stronger in the past
05:27So in other words, I'm not afraid of triangle battles.
05:29Awang Azman pointed out
05:30After visiting Malacca, he saw
05:32The grassroots members of the Malacca militant movement strongly desire to join forces with one party.
05:36He firmly believed that only through the cooperation of witch doctors could the regime be preserved.
05:39However, UMNO has a unity government at the central level.
05:41The immense pressure to maintain
05:43especially
05:52Two days ago, Simon Baum and Anwar Ibrahim became the leader and prime minister.
05:57Personally visited Malacca
05:59They also warmly celebrated the birthday of Malacca Chief Minister Abdul Rauf.
06:02Using cake diplomacy
06:04This could put UMNO, caught in the middle, in a dilemma.
06:07Awang Azman said that if in the end the witch doctors each go their own way...
06:10The breakdown of negotiations will have a ripple effect on relations between the two parties nationwide.
06:14The witch doctor in the middle collaborated on cake diplomacy.
06:41Stuck on this level
06:43So if we say
06:44A military unification could win over Simon's voters
06:47Not coming out to vote
06:47That would give them an advantage in unifying the country by force.
06:49But can unification by force be achieved?
06:50Islamic voters
06:52It's hard to say if they don't come out to vote.
06:53Gold Analysis
06:54Both blue and green dislike red.
06:56However, there is also a lack of trust between the blue and green camps.
06:59Is it possible for Uyghurs to join forces?
07:00Attacking the Malacca election
07:02Biggest stumbling block
07:03If Ukraine-Iran negotiations
07:04It ultimately failed completely.
07:06Ukrainian Union and PAS
07:07Triangle formations erupt in most constituencies
07:09Malaysian votes were scattered
07:10It may not allow Simon and Ondley to
07:12Bold Analysis of Gold
07:14Absolutely cannot be ruled out
07:15Perikatan Nasional, with a narrow advantage in the national elections
07:17It is very likely that Huanglong will be guided
07:19The possibility of Malacca being governed alone
07:21Malacca is likely to see a change in government.
07:24The Islamic Party has the potential to govern alone.
07:27Because during the last general election, the Islamic Party
07:31You see, his Malay votes are stronger than Barisan Nasional's.
07:34So we see
07:36This has been the situation for several months.
07:39The good and bad things about reunification by force are intertwined.
07:42This could cause him to lose some more votes.
07:46So if it flows away
07:48Perikatan Nasional becomes the largest alliance
07:51It is entirely possible
07:52It's hard to say whether it will pass half.
07:54If he is not more than half
07:56He might seek cooperation with the Barisan Nasional coalition.
07:58But if Malacca is careless
08:01The Islamic Party is in charge.
08:03So what is the whole plan for unification by force?
08:06It might require playing it again.
08:09As the two parties in Ukraine and Iran are locked in a fierce battle
08:12Simon, who is out of the running, appears to be on the margins.
08:14In reality, however, it possesses a special
08:16Structural living space
08:18Gold Analysis
08:19Simon in the four core constituencies of the city
08:22Including Yili
08:23Godarasamana
08:25Geshe Party
08:25And Egilda
08:26The core base is quite solid.
08:28As long as the support of the voters of Hua Yi City
08:30No obvious collapse
08:31These four seats are important to Simon.
08:33It still possesses considerable defensive capabilities.
08:36However, Awang Asman pointed out
08:38The triangle battle wasn't entirely in Simon's favor.
08:41In traditional Malay constituencies
08:42The competition remains primarily between UMNO and PAS.
08:45However, in predominantly Chinese areas and mixed constituencies
08:48If the Malay vote is further divided by Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional
08:52Simon could potentially reap structural benefits from this.
08:55Fighting for extra seats in the gaps
08:58However, he also emphasized
08:59The fact that the opponent splits the votes does not necessarily mean that Simon will be the biggest beneficiary.
09:03Ethnic structure in different constituencies
09:05The candidates' strength and voter turnout
09:07All of these could change the final outcome.
09:10in other words
09:11The triangle battle created an opportunity window for Simon.
09:15Instead of the guarantee of holy selection
09:17Thank you for watching
09:21YoYo Television Series Exclusive
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