00:00Let's bring in Daniel Gerlach here. He's a historian specializing in the Middle East.
00:06Daniel, first of all, fill us in on the Houthi rebels.
00:10Who are they and what's their relationship to Iran?
00:13Well, they have been around for quite a long time.
00:15The leader of the Houthis, which is actually a revivalist movement,
00:19claims descendancy to the family of the prophet, to the last kingdom of Yemen.
00:25But he's an ideological leader.
00:27He believes, I think, that he's one of the chosen very few who can really change the course of the
00:33Middle East.
00:34So he has this ambition. He's not just a proxy or a client to Iran.
00:38Now, this movement is extremely ideological, but at the same time, it's doing strategic thinking.
00:44And it has assessed realistic options. It has been there for quite a long time.
00:49And the Saudis have tried to defeat the Houthis militarily for six years.
00:53They haven't achieved anything and neither have the other groups and armed forces in Yemen.
01:00So the Houthis are in control of the capital and of the major assets of the country.
01:04And they are allied with Iran, but not necessarily doing Iran's bidding at any occasion.
01:10They also have their own strategic, let's say, priorities.
01:14So how much of their support, though, how much of, say, the arms, the money, how they support themselves as
01:20a military force, how much of that comes from Iran?
01:24Well, that's a question that even, I think, intelligence services around the world are puzzled by and give you different
01:30answers about.
01:31Of course, Iran has been supporting the Houthis financially, strategically, with advisory capacity.
01:38So has Hezbollah in its better days. So the Houthis have received a lot of capacity building from Iran, but
01:44they have also developed their own technological skills.
01:46The weapons that the Houthis use, apart from long range or mid range missiles, are not very sophisticated and they're
01:54easy.
01:54And so the Houthis, by seizing control of the Bab al-Mandab and of the Yemeni western coast, they do
02:01this with conventional troops, with basically infantry.
02:04And this works because they keep, they hold their ground and air forces cannot oust them for the moment.
02:11How much of a threat do the Houthis pose to Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia's capacity to export oil?
02:19A lot. And this is why Saudi Arabia is in a huge strategic embarrassment.
02:25Saudi Arabia has been, over the years, improved its relationship with Iran also because of that critical situation in Yemen.
02:32But now with the escalation of the war that was not started by Saudi Arabia, neither by Saudi Arabia nor
02:37by Iran, but by the United States and Israel,
02:39the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the crisis at the Bab al-Mandab together form some sort of
02:44a perfect storm for Saudi Arabia.
02:46So the Saudi, the Iranians for a long time waited. They didn't escalate at the Bab al-Mandab immediately after
02:51the strikes happened.
02:52But experts warned it might be the next level.
02:55Now the Houthis have seen a strategic opportunity because they've seen weakness on the other side of the other allied
03:01forces that were trying to push them back.
03:03At the same time, they were afraid that the Saudis might start an offensive against them.
03:07So they seized this opportunity to say, like, we'll do this first. And I think they did this very successfully.
03:12The Houthis can cut off international trade through the Bab al-Mandab.
03:16But at the same time, they can reach with their missiles and their drones the east-west pipeline of Saudi
03:22Arabia that Saudi Arabia uses to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz and bring oil from the Gulf to the Red
03:27Sea.
03:27And this is a very difficult situation for Saudi Arabia. That's why I think at the moment they have no
03:32other option than first fight and reestablish some sort of a deterrence but then negotiate with the Houthis.
03:40Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, called upon the U.S. to provide air support, to carry out airstrikes against the Houthi rebels.
03:48The U.S. administration declined to do that. Why? Is it not in U.S. interests to keep that strait
03:56open, to keep shipping of oil and other resources going through the Red Sea?
04:00Well, the U.S. have attacked the Houthis before. So has Israel, by the way.
04:05We have seen terrible strikes in Sana'a with lots of also civilian casualties.
04:10So it's not that it wouldn't be a precedent. But, you know, at the moment it's very difficult to analyze
04:16the U.S. position on this and the U.S. priorities.
04:19It seems that the U.S. don't want to open another front. But first, most importantly, they want others to
04:23do this job because they say like this is a European problem.
04:26This is a Saudi problem. It might also be a Chinese or an Indian problem because all these international powers
04:31use the Bab al-Mandab.
04:33And so the U.S. don't want to be in the driving seat of that operation.
04:36But let's say I understand why the Saudis are asking for this kind of support from the U.S.
04:41However, it's not going to solve the situation in the Bab al-Mandab, in my view.
04:46The U.N. Security Council is due to discuss the Middle East today.
04:51Do you think the situation with the Houthis will be on their agenda?
04:55It will definitely be on their agenda. And you know what?
04:57It might sound ironic because the U.N. has been discredited over the last couple of years as an inefficient
05:05body.
05:06But maybe the United Nations is the best thing we have at the moment to solve such international conflicts that
05:12combine state players,
05:15non-state actors, recognized powers and non-recognized powers.
05:18And to disentangle also the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and in the Red Sea, which are combined as
05:25conflict scenarios.
05:26And I think probably we should pay attention and take the U.N. seriously.
05:29And maybe it's the moment also to strengthen the U.N.
05:33Because in this case, China and the United States are more or less aligned in their interest to open the
05:38Strait of the Bab al-Mandab.
05:40There's also a humanitarian dimension to this crisis right now, too.
05:45The U.N. is saying that more than 100,000 people have crossed from Yemen into Djibouti next door.
05:53That must be getting people's attention. How serious is that humanitarian situation?
05:58Well, I cannot assess it because I'm here and the situation is recent.
06:02But I can tell you that the humanitarian situation in Yemen is for years is a disaster.
06:06And because of the war, but also because of boycott, because goods would not reach the ports or because militias,
06:14including the Houthis, would tax on them.
06:16Now, this Strait of the Bab al-Mandab is traditionally, and it's been over the last couple of years, a
06:22huge migration route, a very dangerous migration route also, mainly from Africa towards the Arabian Peninsula.
06:28So there is a lot of traffic literally going on there.
06:32And the humanitarian situation caused by this re-escalation is, of course, enormous.
06:37But it's also very difficult, I think, for international organizations to have access to that field at the moment.
06:43Oil prices are spiking all over the world.
06:46This is not just a problem for the Middle East or for Saudi Arabia, but for the rest of the
06:50world.
06:51Whether we're talking Asia or North America or Europe, we're all affected by this because it ultimately affects the cost
06:56of living, not just fuel prices.
06:59This is impacting economies around the world.
07:02We're all feeling it.
07:03Do you see how this situation can be addressed in the Middle East?
07:07Whether we're talking that straight running into the Red Sea or we're talking about the Persian Gulf.
07:14We've got two fronts in this.
07:16And is the UN really going to fix this?
07:19Well, you know, the UN is as powerful as its members and as the mandate it's given.
07:23I'm just telling you that maybe we should come back to some of those conventional patterns,
07:27because all the disruptive approaches that have been taken by Trump, by his negotiation team or the mediators, Pakistan, Qatar,
07:35all of this failed.
07:36At the moment, we don't have the results that are needed by most of the, let's say, international community.
07:43Now, what we see at the moment is a zero-sum game.
07:47Iran is limiting oil exports and making it difficult for its neighbors to export oil.
07:52So the US and their allies are basically trying to curtail Iranian exports by a blockade on the ports.
08:00Now we hear about, you know, attempts to also block the way from the overland way from Iran to Pakistan.
08:06So the zero-sum game, if you do me harm, I will do you harm, is probably not going to
08:10work.
08:11That's why I think an international mechanism could be a solution.
08:14And it's really one of the very few moments that most of the countries of the world want this to
08:18end
08:19and have somehow more or less the same vision how it could end through a negotiated solution.
08:24The US is pressuring its allies to support it in keeping the shipping lanes open in the region.
08:31Yeah.
08:32Do you see any inclination on behalf of these states to support the US?
08:37Look, of course, if the US says you need to support us and then we will do something for you,
08:44the Gulf states have remained more or less faithful to their alliance with the United States.
08:48They have not sent the US troops home, even if it meant that they would receive a lot of shelling
08:53and a lot of missiles and drones from Iran because of the US presence there.
08:56But let's look at the Europeans.
08:59The EU has been talking with the Gulf states for years, long before this crisis recently escalated,
09:04about a joint naval operation.
09:06The Gulf states were very reluctant.
09:07Before they asked the Western states for help when they were dealing with the Houthis,
09:11then they said, like, OK, now you see it's probably also your problem.
09:14So now you take the initiative.
09:16And this has been a lot of time has been lost.
09:19I think there could be political and military cooperation between the Arab states in the region and the Europeans.
09:24But it should not only be about the Houthis and it should not only be about the Strait of Hormuz.
09:29If there is an international cooperation on this, then it must mean a security arrangement,
09:34a security architecture for all the countries in the region.
09:37And there are a few ideas and concepts on the table now being discussed.
09:41Daniel, thank you so much for your analysis.
09:43Daniel Gerlach, historian and Middle East expert.
09:46Thank you for having me.
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