00:01Can the Indian Astob Market crash? What are the major reasons for this and my Nifty position size?
00:08Today we will tell you through this video.
00:11First of all, let us know whether there can be a crash in the market.
00:15Today's video may be a bit long.
00:17But if you don't want to judge the market just by Nifty going up and down,
00:21Rather, they want to time crude oil, rupee, Japanese yen, US bond yield, global markets and institutional money flow.
00:30So definitely watch this video till India
00:32Because today I will not only explain why the market may fall
00:37I will also discuss my personal nifty potion here.
00:42Nifty has a historical gap zone around 20 or 200, 20 or 300
00:49Keeping this long term view in mind
00:51I have created a potential position in Nifty options with December expiry.
00:57And my potion is completely hazed
01:00But this is not what my post means at all.
01:04I am saying that Nifty will definitely go from mid-range to 20 or 200 or 20 or 300.
01:11This is my personal market view and personal trade
01:14My own capital is also at risk in this.
01:18Therefore, do not consider this potion as any kind of recommendation or trade call.
01:24And don't even try to copy it.
01:27Now the question is whether such reasons actually exist in the market.
01:31Due to which the risk of a major decline may increase in the coming time.
01:34Let us understand it one by one
01:37The first reason is geopolitical tension.
01:40First of all let's talk about geopolitical tension
01:44when in some important region of the world
01:47Conflict or tension increases
01:49So its impact is not only on the market of that country.
01:53Its impact on oil supply, shipping cost, currency
01:57You can also read more on global investor sentiment.
02:01And its biggest connection to India is with Kurud Oil.
02:05If due to geopolitical tension
02:09Concerns grow about oil supplies
02:11So Kurud oil can be expensive
02:14And if Kurud Oil remains high for a long time
02:17So its impact on India's economy can increase.
02:21This takes us to the next factor.
02:24The second reason is Kurud oil.
02:26I think for the Indian market.
02:29Kurud oil is one of the most important factors right now
02:33Because India imports a large part of its crude oil requirement
02:51When Kurud Oil is expensive
02:55So concerns about interest rates may increase.
02:58This can also impact company costs, consumer spending, and economic growth.
03:06So if prude oil remains on the high lining continuously
03:12So this can become a big risk factor for the Indian equity market.
03:17Now let's move on to the third reason
03:19Rupee weakness is now linked with prude oil, the next factor is Indian rupees
03:26Take pride in the fact that oil is becoming expensive and at the same time the rupee is also weakening against the dollar.
03:32So imported oil may become more expensive for India.
03:36That means on one hand the international price of oil is increasing and on the other hand the purchasing power of the rupee is increasing.
03:43is falling against the dollar
03:46If this situation persists for a long time, pressure on inflation and current account may increase.
03:54Therefore, it is more important for me to look at crude oil and the rupee together.
04:00The fourth reason is the Japanese yen and the carry trade.
04:04Now, there is a factor that Indian traders often overestimate.
04:10The Japanese yen has its connection to a concept called the yen carry trade.
04:16Interest rates in Japan remained very low for many years
04:20Therefore, some global investors have started investing in yen at a low cost.
04:25Invest that money in other high return assets
04:29But if the Japanese yen starts to strengthen rapidly
04:32Or Japan's interest rate policy becomes more tight
04:36So the pressure to unwind these positions may increase.
04:41This means some investors can sell their risk assets and get back the money.
04:48And if this process happens on a large scale
04:51So volatility may increase in global markets.
04:54And this can also impact emerging markets.
04:57But here too we should not overreact.
05:01Yen strengthening in itself cannot be the reason for Indian market crash
05:07This becomes more important when the yen is strong.
05:11Global risk of sentiment and other financial pressures are also increasing.
05:17Fifth reason: US 10-year treasury yield
05:20Now comes one of the most important global market indicators in my opinion: the US 10-year treasury yield.
05:28I won't factor in the 20-year or 30-year yield separately here.
05:33If you want to track a single US bond yield
05:37So the 10-year treasury yield is the most useful benchmark.
05:41Why? Because the US 10-year yield is the most widely traded yield in the world.
05:46Considered an important reference for borrowing costs and financial conditions
05:53When the US 10-year yield rises sharply
05:56So US government bonds may be more attractive to investors.
06:00Along with this, pressure on global interest rates and borrowing costs may also increase.
06:06Now understand this by relating it to India
06:09If relatively safer assets in the US are getting higher returns
06:14So some global investors, instead of taking risks in emerging markets
06:19May prefer US assets
06:22This could put pressure on foreign capital flows in countries like India.
06:28And this can have another impact on valuation.
06:33Higher interest rates mean more when valuing futures earnings
06:38Use of higher discount rates
06:41And this could put pressure on expensive equity valuations.
06:46So if the US 10-year yield goes up steadily and sharply
06:51So I would consider this an important warning signal for the Indian market.
06:56And if 20-year and 30-year treasury yields are also moving higher
07:02So this could be a broader confirmation of long-term interest rate pressure.
07:08But again, rising US 10-year yields do not mean an Indian market crash is certain.
07:15We need to combine this with other factors as well.
07:18Now let's come to the fourth reason which is FIA Selling
07:21Now let's talk about foreign institutional investors (FIAs) in close.
07:27FIAs sometimes sell and sometimes sell
07:31Therefore, it would not be correct to say that a market crash is about to happen just by looking at FIA selling for a day or two.
07:38But if FIAs keep selling continuously for a long time and the domestic institution does not fully absorb that selling
07:46could do
07:47So there could be additional pressure on the market, so I wouldn't just look at what the FIAs have done today.
07:55how much did you sell
07:56I would consider it more important to see what the trend of FIAs is and how much domestic buying observes that selling.
08:04Still working
08:05The seventh reason is the technical structure of the market. Now let us come to the behavior of the market. If the news is bad but the market
08:14Makes a strong recovery by going to support
08:16So we should respect that price action as well but if the market continuously makes lower high and lower low
08:25and important support levels are being broken
08:28So this can be a big sign of weakness and a very common mistake here is market 5%
08:36Or if it falls by 10% then traders may think that now it has become very cheap.
08:41We buy, but the market getting cheaper is not a confirmation of the reversal at all.
08:47When the market does not show any improvement in its structure, guessing the bottom just by looking at the decline can be risky.
08:57Eighth Reason India Wix
08:59Wix gives us an idea about the expected volatility and fear in the market
09:04If Wix grows rapidly, it means market participants are experiencing higher volatility.
09:11But looking at Wix alone, you can't predict a crash.
09:15We need to see how the pricing and structure of Wix as well as Nifty are.
09:20What are the support levels doing and what is happening in the global markets
09:25So the Wix warning may be a warning but not a confirmation of a crash.
09:32Now let's talk about 20,200 only.
09:35Now let's come back to my personal position.
09:38I told you in the beginning that the historical weekly gap zone is around 20,200.
09:44It is important in my long term view.
09:46Keeping this view in mind, I have created an open hedged position in Nifty options of December expiry.
09:55Is
09:55But I want to clarify again that I am not saying that Nifty will definitely fill that gap.
10:01That means it will go up to 20,200 and fill that gap.
10:05This SIP is my personal market view.
10:07The market may take support before this
10:09The market can also go side wager
10:12The market could also go up
10:14And if my view is wrong
10:16So my positions may also suffer losses.
10:19So I have hazed the position.
10:22But hazing does not mean zero risk.
10:26Hazing is just one important way to manage risk.
10:31So will the market crash?
10:33Now comes the biggest question.
10:35Is the Indian auto market going to crash?
10:39You can find my honest answer here.
10:42I do not know
10:43And the person who tells you the exact date of the crash
10:46Or giving exact level guarantee
10:49You should be careful with that
10:51But we should not ignore the risk factors either.
10:55If geopolitical tensions escalate
10:58Crude oil remains high for a long time
11:01Rupee weakens
11:03Page strength comes in Japanese gain
11:07and carry trade unwind increases
11:09US 10-year treasury yield continues to move higher
11:13FIS sales continue to grow.
11:15And the technical structure of Nifty also remains weak.
11:19So the combination of all these
11:20May increase the risk of a major correction in the market
11:24But if some of these factors are reversed
11:29crude oil goes down
11:31Rupee stabilizes
11:33Global yields continue to cool with each other
11:37foreign flows improve
11:39And Nifty holds important supports
11:43So the market can also recover.
11:46The final message I convey through this video is
11:49So my intention is not to scare you.
11:52My aim is to make you understand market risk.
11:56More important than Crace's prediction
11:59Prepare for the possibility of a Crace
12:01Don't trade in panic if the market is falling
12:04The market has fallen a lot
12:06So don't buy just by looking at the chip.
12:10And the market is going up
12:12So don't even take entry in the huts.
12:14Understand your risk first
12:16Then look at the setup
12:18And only then take the decision to trade
12:21My December expiry nifty options, questions
12:25It's my personal decision
12:27This is not a recommendation for anyone at all.
12:30Your risk, capacity, capital and trading plan
12:34may be different from me
12:36If you want to understand the market in terms of knowledge, discipline and risk management
12:42So do follow and subscribe to no chart finance now.
12:46And tell me in the comment
12:47Have you ever thought about this being the biggest risk in the Indian market?
12:51Prude oil, rupee, Japanese yen, US bond yield, FIA selling or geopolitical risk
12:57Please let us know by commenting on this video.
13:00No hype, no false promises, just real market learning
13:03do
13:04do
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