00:00...that AI could kill all humans, and what percent chance do you think it is?
00:05So, you know, I, you know, it's funny, I agree with Jacob much more than I disagree with him, you
00:12know,
00:13and it's, you know, it's an interesting resignation because when he left he said, you know,
00:19I think Anthropic is the most responsible player, right?
00:22I think Anthropic is the most aware of these issues.
00:25He wasn't calling out us, he was calling out the dynamic.
00:30Of the industry as a whole moving too fast.
00:34Now, you know, I think I already said, you know, these sort of unconditional probabilities, you know,
00:40I used to kind of talk in that way because it's kind of an easy way to express,
00:45I think there's some chance that things go wrong, but, you know, but it's not all that high.
00:52But again, I think it's more illuminating to think in terms of, you know, how do you decompose those probabilities?
00:58What are the paths in which things go well and what are the paths in which things go poorly?
01:03And so instead of saying, you know, it's a 10% chance, that sounds like it's a roll of the
01:08dice,
01:08I think it's much more illuminating to say, well, that forks into different paths.
01:13And if we take the right paths, then the chance of something going wrong is very low.
01:17If we take the wrong paths, then the chance of something going wrong could be even higher than that.
01:23And so let's focus on our agency.
01:25And so let's focus on our agency.
01:26And so let's focus on our agency.
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