- 7 weeks ago
A bombshell report has raised a deeply uncomfortable question in Israel: Was Benjamin Netanyahu warned about the October 7 Hamas attack before it happened? According to a report by Haaretz, based on the forthcoming book Hostages: 843 Days of Abandonment, UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed allegedly called Netanyahu around a week and a half before October 7, 2023. The report claims bin Zayed warned that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was preparing a major military operation against Israel and feared it could trigger massive bloodshed and regional instability.
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00:08What happens when Pakistan signs a defense pact with Saudi Arabia but faces pressure to prove
00:14it means business? And what if a warning about October 7th reached Netanyahu before the attack
00:20but never reached Israel's security chiefs? Today, two stories about alliances, warnings
00:26and accountability. Pakistan faces a crucial test as Houthis strikes hit Saudi Arabia and
00:32Islamabad ways how far its Mecca defense pact really goes. At the same time, a new report raises
00:40explosive questions about what Netanyahu allegedly knew before Hamas attacked Israel. One story tests
00:47the strength of an alliance, the other tests the consequences of a warning ignored. Hello and
00:53welcome. You're watching Statecraft with Megita Mohan. Iran says it has seized an American
00:59submarine at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. Washington says that is not what happened. So who
01:05is right? Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims its naval forces captured a modern unmanned U.S. underwater
01:11vessel in what it calls a complex intelligence and operational action. Iranian state media released
01:18footage that appears to show the submersible being intercepted, but the location and timing of the
01:25video have not been independently verified. Now, the U.S. military has a very different version.
01:31Central Command says an underwater drone malfunctioned more than a day earlier while surveying regional
01:38waters. Washington says the vessel was an older model, carried no sensitive data and had no classified
01:44sonar or radar equipment. So was this an Iranian intelligence coup or an American drone that simply
01:52broke down? There is another escalation in the Gulf. Iran says it shot down a U.S. MQ-1 drone
01:59over the
02:00Strait of Hormuz using what it calls a newly advanced air defense system. The IRGC also claims it attacked
02:0810 ships in waters. It declared unsafe, including two U.S. vessels and eight oil tankers. The claim
02:14came after Washington said it destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers linked to an alleged network
02:21funding the IRGC. Then Iran struck a U.S. base near Jordan. Tehran claimed heavy damage, but Jordan said
02:28its defenses intercepted 18 of the 20 missiles. All of this matters because Hormuz is one of the world's
02:35most important oil choke points. And as U.S.-Iran attacks multiply, control of these waters is
02:42becoming a battle in its own right. The question now is simple. How much further will this confrontation
02:48go? 25 years after the deadliest terror attack on American soil, Donald Trump is now telling a
02:56dramatic new story about how he was there and was rescued. At a White House event, Trump claimed two
03:03firefighters physically pulled him out to safety as an unstable building threatened to collapse.
03:09Trump said they grabbed him under the arms and warned, got to get out of here.
03:14Don't forget, two firemen. We thought it was coming down on top of us and two firemen,
03:19big, strong guys. And I'm not the smallest guy in the world. They grabbed me under the arms,
03:24said, got to get out of here. And they literally lifted me up. This is not easy to do.
03:29I'm big. They lifted me up and they started running with me. I said, fellas, I can run myself.
03:35But they were amazing. But they thought it was coming down. It didn't come down. U.S. deal.
03:41Just days ahead of the 9-11 anniversary. But there's a problem here. U.S. media reports say rescue
03:48officials who were there dispute key parts of Trump's long running account of what he did after 9-11.
03:55For years, Trump has portrayed himself as a ground zero hero, claiming he sent workers to the site
04:01and helped with the recovery. Now, critics say the story keeps changing and the timing is striking
04:07as America prepares to mark 25 years since 2,977 people were killed by al-Qaeda hijackers.
04:16Donald Trump will not be at ground zero in New York. He will instead commemorate 9-11 at the Pentagon.
04:24Former U.S. presidents Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush are expected at
04:30ground zero. Trump says his absence is not political. But once again, his version of 9-11
04:36is becoming part of that story. Pakistan has issued a blunt warning. Attack one and you attack
04:43all three. That is the message from Defense Minister Khwaja Assef on the newly signed Mecca
04:49joint defense agreement between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. And the warning comes at a
04:55dangerous moment. Iran-aligned Houthi forces launched a wave of missiles and drones at Saudi
05:01Arabia, hitting cities, economic assets and energy infrastructure. At least 73 civilians were injured.
05:09Now, Islamabad says the Mecca pact could be activated if the Yemen conflict spills into Saudi territory.
05:16Assef says there is no ambiguity over Pakistan's commitment. If one member faces unprovoked
05:22aggression, he says all three will respond. But there is a crucial caveat. Pakistan insists this
05:29is a defensive pact, not a license for the three countries to launch attacks. Assef says the agreement
05:36does not mean Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey will automatically go to war. Instead, he says,
05:43their combined military strength should act as deterrence. But the message to the Houthis is
05:49unmistakable. Do not take Yemen's war beyond Yemen. Assef warned that any attempt to export the conflict
05:58could trigger the pact's collective defense provisions. The timing is significant. Saudi Arabia
06:04has backed Yemen's internationally recognized government in its long-running war against the
06:10Houthis. And the Houthis, meanwhile, say their latest strikes were retaliation for Saudi strikes in northern
06:18Yemen. For now, Pakistan is calling for de-escalation. But if the fight continues and crosses into
06:24Saudi Arabia, Islamabad says the rules could change and Mecca pact could move from paper to action.
06:40Saudi Arabia is under Houthis attack. Pakistan has the defense pact. So where are the Pakistani jets?
06:47Pakistan has issued a warning that sounds simple. Attack Saudi Arabia and Pakistan could be pulled into
06:54the fight. Defense Minister Khwaja Assef says there should be no ambiguity if Yemen's war spills into
07:01Saudi territory. The Mecca defense pact with Saudi Arabia and Turkey can become operative.
07:08And this warning came just hours after Houthis missiles and drones hit Saudi cities, energy sites
07:14and economic infrastructure, injuring at least 73 civilians. So here is the awkward question.
07:21If this is really an attack on one, is an attack on all, pact, why is Pakistan sending warnings
07:28instead of fighter jets? Because the first question is not whether the pact exists, it is what actually
07:34triggers it. The agreement says aggression against one member will be treated as aggression against all
07:40three. But Pakistan has also made one thing very clear. This is a defensive agreement, not a license for
07:48Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to launch attacks on another country whenever they please.
07:56Pakistan's defense minister Khwaja Assef says it would become operative if a member faces unprovoked
08:01aggression or if the Yemen conflict spills into Saudi Arabia. So do Houthi drones automatically trigger
08:07the pact? Not necessarily. The pact does not spell out an automatic military response and it does not say
08:14what exact action each country must take. That gives Islamabad room to choose air defense, intelligence,
08:21training, training or other security support instead of sending troops straight into combat.
08:27And that is where the attack on one, attack on all slogan gets a reality check.
08:33It sounds like NATO Article 5, but the arrangement is not a NATO-style alliance with a clearly defined
08:40automatic military response. Pakistan already provides Saudi Arabia with security support,
08:45including around 8,000 troops, fighter jets, drones, air defense systems, training and technical
08:52assistance. So the pact can mean more protection without necessarily meaning a new war.
09:00But why is Pakistan so careful? Look back to 2015. Pakistan's parliament unanimously rejected joining the
09:08Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. Islamabad chose neutrality because getting trapped in Yemen's war carried a
09:15serious domestic cost. So what changed by 2026? Pakistan now has the defense pact with Riyadh and its
09:23leadership openly says it will honor its commitments. The shift exposes a very different calculation.
09:31Pakistan faces chronic debt and desperately needs foreign exchange. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile,
09:37wants a powerful Sunni-majority military presence and stronger security ties. But bluntly,
09:44the relationship has a financial side that neither country can ignore. Pakistan gets crucial support
09:50while Saudi Arabia gets military prestige and security backing. That makes this pact look less
09:57like a blank check for war and more like a carefully negotiated transaction. But there is another problem
10:04Islamabad cannot simply ignore or wish away. Iran. Pakistan shares a border with Iran and has tried to
10:11maintain relations with Tehran while also positioning itself as a potential mediator in regional tensions.
10:18The Houthis are Iran-aligned and Pakistan has already described them as non-state actors.
10:24So if Islamabad goes after the Houthis directly, it risks turning a Saudi security problem into a much bigger
10:32regional problem. And Pakistan does not want Yemen's conflict to become its own western border headache.
10:39Then comes the nuclear shadow. Saudi Arabia has long looked for a stronger deterrent against Iran,
10:46and Pakistan is the Islamic world's only nuclear power. That naturally creates speculation about whether
10:53Riyadh gets a nuclear umbrella through this partnership. But Pakistani officials have previously said nuclear
11:00weapons were not on the radar in discussions around the Saudi-Pakistan agreement.
11:05So the nuclear angle is more about perception and deterrence than an announced nuclear commitment.
11:12Which brings us back to the paper tiger question, is Pakistan's warning hollow? Not exactly.
11:19Asaf himself offered the clue and I quote, we don't need to respond to a brick with a stone.
11:23His argument is that the combined military strength of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey can deter attacks
11:31without answering every strike with a full military response. And that may be the whole point. Saudi
11:38Arabia gets a powerful security partnership without automatically dragging Pakistan into Yemen.
11:44Pakistan gets strategic standing, financial support and closer ties with Riyadh without
11:49immediately sending soldiers into another war. The pact does not need to fire a shot to have value.
11:56It needs to convince everyone that crossing the line could carry a cost. So is it a paper tiger?
12:03Maybe not. It may be something more useful, a tiger that both sides would rather keep in the cage.
12:16A new report has raised a question that could shake Israel's political establishment.
12:22It claims the UAE president personally warned Netanyahu that Hamas leader Yahya Sanwar was preparing a major
12:30operation against Israel. The warning allegedly came more than a week before the attack.
12:35Netanyahu, according to the report, remained calm. He allegedly assured the UAE leader that Israel
12:42could handle the threat. But there was another critical problem. The warning was reportedly never
12:48passed on to Israel's top security chiefs, according to the report. And 10 days later, Hamas struck.
12:55The report comes from Israeli newspaper Haaretz. It is based on a forthcoming book titled,
13:01Hostages, 843 Days of Abandonment. The book has been written by investigative journalists Shlomi Elder
13:09and Ruth Yuval. Their account is based on dozens of sources in Israel and abroad, including senior
13:16officials. According to the report, UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed was in regular contact with
13:23Israel's top leadership. That included Netanyahu and Israeli President Isaac Herzog.
13:28And then came the alleged phone call. Around a week and a half before October 7, 2023,
13:36bin Zayed reportedly called Netanyahu. The call was not casual. It allegedly followed a strict security
13:43protocol. An Arab embassy representative reportedly arrived at Netanyahu's office carrying a special
13:49telephone device, a secure line for a sensitive conversation between two leaders. The conversation
13:56allegedly lasted 45 minutes and according to Haaretz, Bin Zayed delivered a stark warning. Hamas leader Yahya
14:04Sanwar was preparing a major military operation against Israel. The UAE President was reportedly worried
14:11about massive bloodshed. But not just in Israel. He feared the operation could destabilize the entire
14:19region. And this was allegedly not the first warning. In September of 2023, Sinwar reportedly sent a message
14:26through a Palestinian mediator to both Israel and the UAE. The message contained a chilling phrase. An
14:34earthquake was approaching. But if the report is accurate, Israel did not treat the warning as an imminent
14:41catastrophe. According to the account, Netanyahu gave Bin Zayed the surprisingly calm response.
14:47He allegedly reassured the UAE President that Israel was more than capable of dealing with Hamas.
14:53The UAE leader was reportedly surprised by Netanyahu's reaction. And then comes the most explosive
15:01allegation. Netanyahu allegedly did not relay the warning to Israel's senior security establishment.
15:09Not to the IDF chief, not to the Shin Bet, not to Mossad. If that claim is eventually proven,
15:16the issue is no longer simply whether Israel had intelligence about Hamas. The question becomes far
15:22more serious. Did Netanyahu personally receive a warning from a foreign leader and fail to act on it?
15:30Because the attack exposed one of the biggest intelligence and security failures in Israel's
15:35history. For Israel, October 7th was not just another terror attack. It shattered the assumption that
15:42Hamas was contained. It exposed failures across Israel's military and intelligence establishment.
15:48And it triggered a war that transformed the whole of West Asia. Israel launched a devastating military
15:54campaign in Gaza. More than 73,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to the figures cited in the
16:01report. Large parts of Gaza have been destroyed. And the conflict has spread far beyond the enclave.
16:08But Netanyahu has faced intense criticism over October 7th from the beginning. Critics have
16:14questioned how Hamas managed to prepare such a massive operation without being stopped.
16:20Now this report adds another explosive layer. Was there a warning from Abu Dhabi? And if there was,
16:27why was it allegedly ignored? The timing could hardly be more politically sensitive. Israel is heading
16:33towards legislative elections on the 27th of October, 2026. And opposition leaders have seized on the
16:41report. Four opposition party leaders, Gandhi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Leiberman and Yair Golan
16:50issued a joint statement demanding an immediate and thorough investigation. Their questions are blunt. What did
16:58Netanyahu know? When did he know it? Why was the security establishment allegedly not informed? And why was
17:06nothing done to protect Israeli civilians? Those questions go directly to the heart of Netanyahu's leadership.
17:13Because governments can survive military failures. They can survive intelligence failures. But allegations that a
17:20Prime Minister personally received an advance warning from a foreign leader and failed to pass it to the
17:26security establishment would be politically explosive if substantiated. Netanyahu's office has denied the
17:33allegation and the Prime Minister has instructed his lawyers to pursue a liable lawsuit against Haaretz over the
17:40report. So at this stage, the claim remains an allegation. There is no established finding that Netanyahu was warned in
17:48advance about the October 7th attack. And that distinction matters. Because the real question is
17:54not simply what a newspaper report claims. The real question is whether an investigation can establish
18:01what happened behind closed doors. Was the phone call actually made? What exactly did Bin Zayed tell
18:08Netanyahu? Did Netanyahu understand the scale of the threat? Was the warning documented? And most importantly,
18:15was it passed on to the people responsible for protecting Israel? Those answers could determine
18:22how history remembers October 7th. Because if the report is false, then it is another political battle over one of
18:29Israel's darkest days. But if the core allegation is proven true, the implications are enormous. And that brings us back
18:38to the
18:39biggest question. Was October 7th truly a complete surprise? For nearly three years, Netanyahu has faced
18:45questions over what went wrong on that day. Now, a new report is asking an even more uncomfortable question.
18:53Not simply how did Israel fail to stop Hamas, but did Netanyahu know something was coming and fail to act?
19:00That question cannot be answered by political statements alone. It requires evidence. It requires
19:06testimony. It requires an investigation. China tried to make its South China sea position heard at a defense
19:14forum in Seoul. But what it did instead was give the Philippines a bigger microphone. Philippines defense
19:22secretary, Gilberto Teodoro, was speaking about maritime tensions when a man walked up and placed a note on
19:29his table. Teodoro stopped, picked it up, and realized it came from China. And then he did something
19:36unexpected. He read it aloud and did not let the message pass. This is what he said.
19:42I have a note here. I think this is from China. You should have joined the
19:49and may I read it. China's position on the South China sea arbitration is clear, consistent, and firm.
19:55They have no position. The arbitration violates fundamental principles of international law.
20:01So what you sign, UNCLOS, you mean violates international law. That's what you mean. The so-called
20:08award is illegal, null, and void. So say you. And has no binding force because you don't want to be
20:15subjected to UNCLOS. China neither accepts nor recognizes the award. Of course, because you lost. And
20:23opposes it and will never accept any claim or action arising from it. These are words slipped to me.
20:32And there is a legal principle called res ipsa loquitur. The thing speaks for itself. How can you deal
20:39with a country in an international forum beyond the question asked to me? Disrespecting the organizers
20:49of this forum, how do you expect to deal with it civilly? I ask you the question. Is this the
20:56right
20:57paper to pose to me when I'm being asked a question on the floor? And how will you treat this
21:05kind of
21:06behavior? It not only disrespects, shows, if this is a Chinese position sent to me,
21:14it not only disrespects international law, throwing UNCLOS to the floor and trampling upon it, but it also
21:25disrespects the basic decency accorded that should be accorded to our most gracious hosts, the Republic of
21:32Korea and the rest of the audience here. So perhaps basic decency and behavior is what China needs to do.
21:41That was harsh. The interruption was reportedly not a planned ambush. A Chinese military attache
21:47had given the note to a forum staff member who mistakenly passed it to Teodoro while he was
21:54speaking, but the damage was done. Teodoro used the moment to re-instate and re-state Manila's position.
22:02China cannot claim exclusive control over disputed waters or ignore international rules.
22:08That was the message. Beijing rejected the 2016 arbitration ruling and later warned the Philippines
22:15against undermining bilateral ties and stability in the South China Sea.
22:19So what was supposed to be a quiet diplomatic message became a public confrontation. China
22:26wanted its position on the table. Teodoro made sure the whole room heard it.
22:32That's all in this edition of Statecraft. Before we go, Elon Musk's estranged daughter,
22:38Vivian Jenna Wilson, has taken aim at AI and perhaps a billionaire father. In a striking new fashion campaign,
22:46the Spanish brand Desigual's Born to Disobey campaign features Wilson confronting a humanoid robot
22:52that resembles Musk's Tesla Optimus. From putting it on a leash to dragging the broken machine across
22:59the floor, the campaign ends with a saying, some things aren't meant to be fixed. Wilson has also
23:07criticized AI for threatening creative jobs, human thinking and individuality. Fashion statement or a
23:13pointed message to Musk. You decide. With that, it's a wrap. Thank you for watching. Goodbye and take care.