00:01The political earthquake in Saxony-Anhalt
00:04has sent shockwaves far beyond this eastern German state.
00:08The historic victory for the far-right AfD
00:11doesn't just redraw the political map in that state,
00:14it also puts enormous pressure on Germany's mainstream parties,
00:18challenges the political firewall
00:20against cooperation with the far-right
00:22and raises new questions
00:24about the country's democratic resilience.
00:27For more on this, I'm joined now by Nicolas Spohn,
00:30political scientist at Otto von Gehriger University
00:33in Magdeburg in Saxony-Anhalt.
00:37So, how big a political earthquake is this result
00:40for Saxony-Anhalt and for Germany as a whole?
00:44First of all, it really is a historic victory for the AfD,
00:48and it is an earthquake for the rest of the parties.
00:51And it should be noted that the AfD is a clear winner of this election.
00:54So, there's, to be honest, no real option for a government without the AfD.
00:58The only alternative would be a coalition in Saxony-Anhalt of the CDU and SPD,
01:04supported by the left parties and the BSW,
01:07and this scenario is almost impossible since,
01:09first, they hold completely different positions,
01:12and second, the BSW has clearly stated that it would not support the CDU prime minister.
01:19So, at this point, we have to accept that the AfD received the mandate to form a government here in
01:25Saxony-Anhalt.
01:26So, this vote, was this a vote for the AfD or against the political establishment?
01:34Yeah, I often heard those questions in the last days, especially asked from media outlets outside of Germany,
01:39and it usually applies two things.
01:41Are these protest votes or genuine support?
01:44And second, if it is genuine support,
01:46are the people in Saxony-Anhalt more right-winged or authoritarian than in other states of Germany?
01:51And, first of all, I think it is genuine support, but still the people are not more right-wing than
01:59in other parts of Germany.
02:00What I mean is that it is not genuine support for the AfD's agenda,
02:06but rather for their image of doing everything different or how they posted on their election slogans,
02:13everything is possible.
02:15The state has experienced the largest population decline of any German state over the past 35 years.
02:21Since 1990, we lost 25% of our population,
02:25and you see that especially in rural areas.
02:29For example, cities like Wolf in the former center of the chemical industry had 45,000 people in 1990,
02:35and today it's 15,000.
02:36Most young people left the city and within the schools,
02:39the sports clubs and other parts of the civil life.
02:43And the young people also fear this demographic change.
02:48In economically disadvantaged areas, there is a teacher shortage.
02:52And after they graduated, they only have few job opportunities or poor career chances.
02:56What I'm trying to say is that 40% of the voters of the AfD do not vote for the
03:02AfD
03:02because of it far-right topics, but rather despite the fact that this is a far-right party.
03:08People in Eastern Germany are not more right-wing.
03:10They are simply more frustrated.
03:12So would you say that this is rather an exceptional case,
03:16or are we looking at a trend that could spread across Germany?
03:21Well, I think it's a trend you see in whole Eastern Germany.
03:24For example, in two weeks, there will be the election in Mecklenburg, Western Pomerania.
03:28There is also a strong AfD.
03:30There is also an Eastern German federal state.
03:34And in my opinion, it is very possible that the AfD will also be the winner of the election
03:43in Mecklenburg, Western Pomerania.
03:45But still, that doesn't mean that the AfD is so strong on the national level.
03:52Ironically, the biggest voter gain on the national level doesn't come from the election results
04:00here in Saxony-Arnhalt.
04:02It comes from the Chancellor.
04:04So the Chancellor Friedrich Merz has an approval rating of just above 9%, which is really, really low.
04:11And yesterday I heard Thorsten Frei, who is the leader of the CDU in the Bundestag.
04:21And he said, even though we had this horrible election for the CDU here in Saxony-Arnhalt,
04:27there won't be any consequences on the national level of the government.
04:31And this is what frustrates people.
04:33And this could give the AfD more votes if the CDU on the national level still turns a blind
04:39eye to these warnings like the elections here in Saxony-Arnhalt.
04:44The political dilemma of the political center is to keep up the firewall and risk political
04:50paralysis or weaken the firewall and legitimize the AfD.
04:56So what's going to happen?
04:59The main question is how we can form a government here in Saxony-Arnhalt.
05:03As I mentioned earlier, there is no majority without the AfD at the moment.
05:10And it's pretty much possible that the AfD Minister-President could be elected with votes of the CDU members.
05:19On the one side, there are CDU members who sympathize with the program of the AfD.
05:25On the other side, the CDU here in Saxony-Arnhalt knows about this problem and they only got
05:3215 seats this election.
05:34Still, it is a secret election.
05:36And in my opinion, it's possible that single members of the CDU will vote for Minister-President
05:43of the AfD and would also support single policies of the AfD or possible AfD government.
05:50But I don't think that there will be an open coalition between the CDU and the AfD.
05:57So this kind of firewall will still hold, in my opinion.
06:01And what kind of pressure do you see on the Christian Democrats and on Chancellor Merz?
06:07Because he is the one that is kind of at the center of this debate.
06:13Can he survive this politically?
06:16Yeah, I think for Chancellor Merz, this will be a main question.
06:21As I mentioned earlier, his PRU rating is just over 9%.
06:24And it's so low that he didn't even show up during the campaign here.
06:28Although the leading candidate is also from the CDU in Saxony-Arnhalt.
06:32The election of Saxony-Arnhalt shows that the CDU has, on the national level, correct their political
06:41course.
06:41So a lot of people are frustrated from the work of the CDU.
06:45The CDU, they promised different things than they made after the election.
06:50The economy is doing worse than before the last election on the national level.
06:57But to be honest, there are also parts which are not the fault of the CDU.
07:03We have this ongoing crisis with Russia, the war between Russia and Ukraine.
07:09We have the war on Iran.
07:10And these are topics that Chancellor Merz can't do a lot about it.
07:15But still, you feel these economically.
07:17The main part for the CDU is now to establish a positive idea of what the future will bring
07:24for the people.
07:26And at the moment, we don't have this positive vision.
07:29And the AFD is the only candidate showing some kind of positive vision, which was everything
07:35is possible.
07:35So everything can also be different.
07:38I want to, you know, point to one very special policy, and that's education policy.
07:46Education policy are decided on a state level in the Federal Republic.
07:50Now, the AFD has suggested a shift in the school curriculum to reduce the focus on Hitler and
08:01the Holocaust in history lessons.
08:04Now, how dangerous do you think is this?
08:08I mean, this has raised a lot of eyebrows outside of Germany.
08:12Is the AFD about to whitewash German history?
08:17Yeah, I wouldn't go that far.
08:19But still, as you mentioned, the AFD has the possibility to change the curriculum in schools
08:25here in Saxonia, but only in borders.
08:30So they can't change the full curriculum.
08:33There still has to be parts about the Second World War and the time after the war.
08:39But they can shorten this period in school.
08:43But everything they want to do instead has to be scientifically approved.
08:47So you can't teach anything in Germany, which isn't at the state of the art and the eyes
08:53of the science.
08:54But their idea is to shift from the Second World War to times of, in brackets like, better Germany
09:07or a better vision of Germany, which is the German Empire or the time of Otto the Great.
09:13Yes, they can change the view of younger people about German, about German history, about our
09:21place in the world, and to establish the more proud vision or to be proud to be a German.
09:29And that's the narrative of the AFD.
09:32But the narrative on the national level is as it was before.
09:40Yeah.
09:40Interesting.
09:41One more.
09:43There are 27 countries in the European Union.
09:46A lot of them have far right parties for many, many years.
09:50Now, is Germany finally entering that phase, that sort of new normal where a strong far right
10:01political party is part of the political process?
10:05Yeah, I think you already saw that in the last election where the AFD had a lot of votes
10:11and they are the leading opposition party in like every parliament on the state level or on
10:20the national level.
10:22So, yeah, Germany is entering and was already before entering this new era of far right parties
10:32in the parliament and maybe entering also the countries of far right parties in government.
10:40Do you think that with the strong showing of the AFD in Germany, this will have an impact
10:48on, first of all, the German government and then by extension on the politics of Brussels?
10:56So, first of all, yes, I see a shift to more conservative topics in the last years and conservative
11:03ideas and narratives are stronger in the society and in the German government too.
11:09But still, I wouldn't overestimate the impact of like federal elections to Sony Arnold or in
11:16Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on the national level or even on the EU level.
11:20On the national level, the AFD isn't as strong as it is in the Eastern German country, states.
11:29And we have to acknowledge that the majority of the people are still against the ideas of
11:37the AFD.
11:38So, there won't be, in my opinion, a shift in Germany towards the AFD and the narratives
11:45of the AFD on the national government.
11:48All right.
11:49Nicolas Spoon, political scientist at the Otto von Gehrigke University in Magdeburg,
11:53Saxony Arnold.
11:54Thank you so much for your time today.
11:56Thank you.
11:57Thank you.
