00:00Welcome back. Tensions are rising between Israel and Turkey, particularly after an Israeli strike on the Abu al-Duhur military
00:08airbase in northern Syria.
00:10With both countries maintaining a military presence in Syria, could the country become the battleground of a wider Israeli-Turkish
00:17confrontation?
00:18Musab Donatash from Orsam Center for Middle Eastern Studies shares his views.
00:23After the collapse of said regime, Turkey has become the most important country for supporting Syria's stability.
00:31Because Turkey sees the stability in Syria directly tied to its own national interests, including border management and counterterrorism, refugee
00:43return and regional connectivity projects.
00:46First, the most important thing is that two countries, Turkey and Syria, share more than 900 kilometers border.
00:55And secondly, Turkey has a large Syrian population, more than 2 million people, 2 million Syrian people still living in
01:03Turkey.
01:04And the third one, Syria serves as a Turkish gateway to the Middle East, which is vital for regional connectivity
01:12projects.
01:13And these are the common shares between Turkey and Syria.
01:21But on the other hand, Israel positions itself in exactly opposite direction in Syria.
01:28And it tries to undermine the ongoing state-wielding process.
01:34And it prefers the weak central authority in Dimashk and also fragmented territorial integrity and fragmented political unity.
01:45And to make this reality, actively tries to destabilize the country with various tools, like cultivating relations with Druze in
01:59the south of the country and committing ongoing military validations against Syria.
02:08I think we have to remember that after the collapse of Assad regime for the last two years, Israel has
02:16carried out more than 1,000 airstrikes in the different parts of Syria and also occupied the buffer zone and
02:25detained more than tens of hundreds of Syrians.
02:30In response, in response, Syrian state has not launched a single retaliation.
02:38Musab says Israel's actions also risk undermining Syria's transition process.
02:43He also commented on the possibility of a direct Turkish-Israeli confrontation, saying the risk remains low due to several
02:50factors.
02:53Israel wants to frame Turkey as a new Iran in the region.
02:58That's the main issue, I think.
03:00But Turkey is not Iran.
03:02First of all, it's a NATO member.
03:05And it has strong military capabilities.
03:08And also, it maintains good relations with both Western countries and also regional countries.
03:14And unlike Israel, it has many allies and partners in the region, as we see in the latest agreement, in
03:22Mecca agreement, which is signed in the recent days.
03:26Furthermore, Israel's recent moves to escalate tensions are largely driven by upcoming elections in Israel, I think.
03:35The Netanyahu government needs a new crisis to stay in the power, and it's trying to provoke Turkey to score
03:43domestic political gains.
03:45Therefore, in my view, the probability of direct Israeli-Turkish military clash remains quite low at this stage.
03:54But in future, I don't know, maybe after the elections, if Israel still continues this aggressive politics against the region,
04:03maybe some politics can be changed.
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