00:03Korea's top story today isn't just an energy story.
00:07Pause. It's a signal about where the economy is heading.
00:10The government wants renewable capacity at 220 gigawatts by 2040.
00:15That is roughly what 45 nuclear reactors produce.
00:19Power demand for 2040 has now put it up to 165 gigawatts.
00:25And Korea may still need four to five more reactors to cover the gap.
00:29It's Thursday, August 27.
00:32Let's get into one of Korea's top economic stories today.
00:36On August 26, the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment
00:40presented its 2040 renewable supply outlook at a public debate in Seoul.
00:45Korea's renewable fleet stood near 37 gigawatts last year,
00:49so the target implies close to a six-fold expansion.
00:53Three mega-projects, including semiconductor fabs,
00:56are driving power demand sharply higher at the same time.
01:00Here's what the numbers show.
01:03220 gigawatts is the 2040 renewable target, up from about 37 gigawatts last year.
01:09Solar capacity rises from roughly 31 gigawatts at the end of last year
01:14to 87 gigawatts in 2030 and 155 gigawatts by 2040.
01:20Offshore wind adds four to five gigawatts a year from 2030,
01:24taking it to 74% of a 61 gigawatt wind fleet.
01:29Matter of fact, the outlook assumes utilization of 80% for nuclear,
01:3320% for solar and 30% for wind.
01:372040 demand is now centered up to 165 gigawatts,
01:41against 129.3 gigawatts for 2038 in last year's 11th plan.
01:47More than 6 gigawatts of that demand must come from other sources,
01:51which points to four to five additional reactors.
01:54A 55% rise in solar capacity requires energy storage to grow 220%,
02:00and about 19.5 gigawatts of storage by 2030.
02:05So, what does this mean for readers following Korea's economy?
02:09Earlier, we said Korea may still need four to five more reactors.
02:13Here's what that actually means for you.
02:16This is a build-everything plan, not a swap of nuclear for renewables.
02:20The binding constraint has moved from generation to grid and storage,
02:24and that is where the costs and the policy fights will land.
02:28Watch the new nuclear construction plan, due in September.
02:32Watch the 12th basic power supply plan for its final demand and grid assumptions.
02:37Watch battery and storage orders, the earliest hard signal that the target is real.
02:43That's today's AI Prism, Front Page Daily.
02:46This episode was produced with AI assistance based on Seoul Economic Daily reporting
02:52and reviewed by a human editor.
02:54AI Prism is a WANIFRA award-winning series.
02:57We'll be back tomorrow.
02:58Join me tomorrow.
03:01Copyright 2018
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