00:00This was the fear of the Iran-US.
00:02The Iran-US was attacked by the Dindora, which was the ceasefire.
00:06He didn't have a month.
00:08After the Middle East war, the global economy and its backbone, crude, were unstable.
00:17What did the unstable even?
00:20Crude oil was 18 August, which was $88 per barrel.
00:25One of the first 50 dollars was $90 per barrel.
00:27के बिलकुल करीबूद और इस बार वजह सिर्फ टेज की डेमांड या सिप्लाई नहीं है असलिके लिए इरान और अमेरिका
00:33के बीट चल रहा
01:02So, today we will try to understand this whole scenario and then understand why WTI and Brent are so volatile.
01:12First, let's talk about the crude prices of 17 August.
01:15So, in the beginning of the trade, 17 August, oil prices, about 1% of the price,
01:21Brent crude futures, about 0.7% of the price,
01:26about 88 to 89 dollars per barrel.
01:29The US West Texas Intermediate,
01:31about 40 cents per barrel,
01:35about 82-83 dollars per barrel.
01:38But, the focus is that,
01:40in the last week,
01:41two major crude benchmarks,
01:43about 5% of the price,
01:46and the biggest impact of Strait of Hormuz,
01:50the tankers per attack,
01:51and the Middle East,
01:52the biggest question is,
01:55is that,
01:55the price will continue?
01:58Look,
01:59in Iran-US talks,
02:00there is no breakthrough.
02:02The weekend,
02:03the Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi,
02:05has said,
02:06that Iran has not started to start the war with America.
02:11In the meantime,
02:12the peace deal has no big breakthrough.
02:14In the meantime,
02:16the US President Donald Trump has said,
02:19that the conflict is happening during the war,
02:21the gasoline of the few more,
02:24the price will accept the price.
02:25So,
02:26the US also has prepared to be,
02:28that if the conflict is long,
02:30the global level will be disrupted.
02:34Now,
02:35it means that,
02:35the market is very clean.
02:37When the conflict is finished,
02:39there is no clear signal,
02:40until the oil market,
02:42there is a geopolitical risk premium,
02:44and the risk premium,
02:46the crude prices are close to $90.
02:50Now,
02:51this is the most important part,
02:52which is the most important part.
02:54Straight of Hormuz.
02:56This is the most important part of oil transit routes,
02:59until the whole world will be understood.
03:01In the meantime,
03:05We will give you more details.
03:07From Kepler's market to ,
03:09पंद्रा अगस को स्ट्रेट ओव फॉर मुस से सर्फ 5 कोमोडिकडी वятьसल्स गुजरे थे और इस वाज्य रेजिस्टर नहीं
03:18इसकी दुजनाा पिछले वीकेंड से गरिएगा उस वीकेंड करीब 31 वैसल्स भीकेंड वैसल्स स्ट्रेट ओव
03:39I'm sorry.
04:09bada concern bada chuka hai
04:11ab sawal yye ki agar yye disruption
04:13jari rehta hai to truth kitna mehenga ho sakta hai
04:15JP Morgan ka estimate is maamilai
04:17me kaafi eahim hai bank ka kaya na hai ki
04:19disruption ka har additional month Brent
04:21root ki qiemat mein kariib 7 se
04:238 dollar pretty barrel jod sakta hai
04:25ab agar disruption 3 mahinye
04:27tuk chala to JP Morgan ke mutabik
04:29Brent ke average monthly price kariib
04:30114 dollar pretty barrel tuk pohunt
04:33sakti hai yani aaj jaha
04:34Brent kariib 89 dollars hai
04:36wahaan se 114 dollar
04:39tuk ka level ek bada jump ho jayega
04:41leakin sif JP Morgan hir crude
04:43ko lekar warning nahi dhe raha hai
04:44Goldman Sachs nne bhi ehi kaha hai
04:46ki agar straight of hormones ke zariye
04:48shipping disruption rah ta hai jari
04:50to Brent crude ki qiemat 120
04:53dollar pretty barrel tuk pohunt sakti hai
04:55aur yahaan dhyan dene wali baat ye hai
04:57ki straight of hormones dunia ka
04:58sabsa important oil transit shoot maana chata hai
05:01is liye lambbe samihe tuk disruption ka
05:03matlab global oil supply
05:05par bada pressure or supply
05:06me pressure ka siedha
05:07matlab hai higher crude prices
05:09leakin eek dousra scenario bhi hai
05:11Goldman Sachs ka base case
05:13ye nahi hai ki crude hamisha
05:14120 dollar per raha gha
05:16bank ka ye maanna bhi hai ki
05:17middle east tensions eventually
05:19eases ho sakti hai
05:20yani khatm honne ki taraf bada sakti hai
05:23aur agar aisa hota hai
05:53tuk crude prices me phir se correction
05:54risk ki hai ki straight of hormones
05:56aur red sea me disruptions
05:57umeed se zyada lambbe samihe tuk
06:29chalte rahe agar
06:29agar aisa ho gaya
06:30agar talk shuru hoti hai
06:31aur peace deal ki umeed
06:33banti hai
06:33tuk crude prices me rahaat
06:35a sakti hai
06:35dousari
06:36straight of hormones
06:37me tanker traffic
06:38kab normal hooga
06:39agar vessels ki movement
06:41paapas bhahti hai
06:41to supply disruptions
06:43ka dar kam hooga
06:43lékin agar traffic
06:44lagata low raha
06:45to crude prices
06:47per pressure
06:47bana raha gha
06:48aur tisri
06:49aur sabse important
06:49chiz
06:50middle east conflict
06:51kittne lambbe samihe
06:52tak chalega
06:53agar conflict
06:53jaldi shant
06:54ho jata hai
06:54to Goldman Sachs
06:55ka 80 dollar
06:56wala scenario
06:57bhoat
06:57asanee
06:58se muamkin
06:58hai
06:58lékin agar
06:59conflict
07:00or shipping
07:00disruptions
07:01lambbe
07:01chalye
07:02to JP Morgan
07:03ka 114 dollar
07:05or Goldman Sachs
07:06ka 120 dollar
07:07wala upside
07:07scenario market
07:08me
07:08zyada important
07:10ho jayega
07:10to philal
07:11tasweer
07:11bilkul
07:12saf to
07:12naii
07:12nazaar
07:13raha
07:13Brent
07:13curry
07:1329
07:14dollars
07:14per
07:15hai
07:15ək
07:15طرف
07:1590 dollar
07:16ka
07:16psychological
07:16level
07:17saamne
07:17hai
07:17dousi
07:18طرف
07:18market
07:19ko
07:19ڈar
07:19hai
07:19khi
07:19agar
07:20hormoze
07:20reception
07:21lambba
07:21chal
07:21gaya
07:22to crude
07:22100 dollar
07:23ke
07:23par
07:23bhi
07:23ja
07:24sakt
07:24is
07:24liye
07:24ane
07:25wala
07:25din
07:25mene
07:25crude
07:26oil
07:26market
07:26ke
07:27liye
07:27sabse
07:28bada
07:28trigger
07:28ko
07:29economic
07:30data
07:30is
07:30same
07:31nai
07:31hai
07:32balki
07:32iran
07:32u.s
07:33stocks
07:33or
07:33straight
07:34of
07:34hormones
07:34me
07:35tanker
07:35movement
07:35rehnne
07:36wala
07:36hai
07:36yani
07:37yani
07:37abhi
07:38crude
07:38volatility
07:38khatm
07:39ho
07:39ghi
07:40ya
07:40nai
07:40yani
07:40bhi
07:40bha
07:40bha
07:41t
07:41raga
07:41market
07:42ki
07:42nai
07:42zara
07:42abh
07:43is
07:43bata
07:43pere
07:43kye
07:4390
07:44dollar
07:44ke
07:44ba
07:44agla
07:45pada
07:45100
07:45dollar
07:45ya
07:4680
07:46dollar
07:47tensions
07:47khatm
07:48ho
07:48gai
07:48to
07:4880
07:48dollar
07:49ki
07:49lo
07:49jayega
07:50leken
07:50agar
07:50tensions
07:51bhrti
07:51rahi
07:52to
07:52kya
07:52hoga
07:53ye
07:53bada
07:53sawaal
07:54aapko
07:54kya kya
07:55lght
07:55ta comment
07:55me aapni
07:56raya
07:56salut
07:56each
07:57lght
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