00:00Everyone is watching America.
00:02Everyone is watching Iran.
00:04Everyone is watching Israel and Russia and Saudi Arabia.
00:07But the country that could change the entire trajectory of this war with a single decision,
00:11the country whose strategic position is so uniquely powerful
00:14that both sides need it and neither side can afford to antagonize it,
00:18that country is Turkey.
00:19Turkey is not cleanly on one side or the other.
00:21Turkey is doing something far more sophisticated than taking sides.
00:25And that sophistication, that extraordinary strategic positioning
00:27is exactly what makes Turkey the real kingmaker of this war.
00:31Because once you understand what Turkey is doing and why,
00:34you will understand that the outcome of this war
00:36may not be decided in Tehran or Washington or Tel Aviv.
00:39It may be decided in Ankara.
00:41Let me start with geography.
00:43Because in geopolitics, geography is destiny.
00:45And Turkey's geography is perhaps
00:47the most extraordinary strategic asset
00:49of any nation on earth right now.
00:50Every day, without exception.
00:52Russia's entire Black Sea fleet,
00:54the fleet it has been using to project power
00:57in the Ukraine conflict
00:58and to threaten NATO's southern flank
01:00exists entirely at Turkey's discretion.
01:02If Turkey closes the straits, that fleet is trapped.
01:05That is an extraordinary lever over Russian behavior
01:07that Turkey has exercised with remarkable discipline
01:10and strategic patience throughout the Ukraine conflict.
01:13But Turkey's geographic leverage does not stop there.
01:15Turkey shares a border with Iran to the east.
01:18A long, complex, deeply intertwined border
01:20with a history of trade, tension, migration,
01:23and mutual dependence that goes back centuries.
01:25Turkey shares a border with Iraq and Syria,
01:28the territories where Iranian proxy forces operate
01:30and where the supply lines that sustain Iran's regional influence run.
01:34Turkey is a NATO member connected to the most powerful military alliance in history
01:38with the second largest army in that alliance
01:40with American nuclear weapons stored on Turkish soil at Insulik Air Base.
01:44And Turkey controls access to the Black Sea for the entire alliance.
01:47In a single country, you have leverage over Russia,
01:50leverage over Iran, leverage over NATO, leverage over the Middle East,
01:53and geography that puts it at the center of every major strategic calculation
01:56happening in the world right now.
01:58If Turkey decided that American conduct of this war against Iran
02:01was contrary to Turkish interests,
02:03Turkey could make American use of Insulik significantly more complicated.
02:07Not close it, not give up its NATO membership,
02:10but make it difficult in ways that would impose
02:12real operational costs on American military planning.
02:14That is a card Turkey has not played, but it is a card Turkey holds.
02:18Turkey wants three things.
02:19First, Turkey wants strategic autonomy.
02:21Full, genuine, unquestioned freedom to pursue its national interests
02:25without being constrained by alliance loyalty or great power pressure.
02:29The ability to buy Russian gas and American weapons simultaneously.
02:32The ability to negotiate with Iran while hosting American bases.
02:35The ability to be a NATO member without behaving like one
02:37whenever NATO demands conflict with Turkish interests.
02:40This war is accelerating Turkey's achievement of that autonomy
02:45because it is demonstrating in real time
02:48that Turkey's indispensability to all parties
02:50makes it almost impossible to discipline or coerce.
02:54Second, Turkey wants regional dominance,
02:56not the Ottoman Empire,
02:57not territorial expansion in any formal sense.
03:00Turkey has been playing this game for 500 years.
03:03It is very, very good at it.
03:04And here is what I want you to understand
03:06about what all this means for the outcome of this war.
03:08Turkey is not going to end this war by force.
03:11Turkey is not going to announce that it is taking over mediation
03:14and present a peace plan.
03:16Turkey is going to do something far more subtle
03:17and far more effective.
03:19Turkey is going to make itself so necessary to every party
03:22that when this war eventually finds its way
03:24toward a negotiated settlement,
03:25all roads run through Ankara.
03:27The communication channels will be Turkish.
03:28The trusted interlocutors will be Turkish.
03:30Turkey is Turkish.
03:34Turkish
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