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00:00President Trump says voters are angry at Republicans, but not angry at him.
00:06They're not angry at me, but they are angry at Republicans.
00:10He's full of it. The president's full of it. I mean, that's just the bottom line.
00:13I mean, that is the scientific answer. That's a scientific phrase.
00:16I mean, you could just see it here, how voters are feeling.
00:1843 percent of them in an average of polls are choosing the Republicans for the House.
00:22The Republicans for the House are outrunning President Trump.
00:25His approval rating is just 37 percent in an average of polls.
00:28They're outrunning him by six points among independents.
00:31The spread's even wider. I have it as a little nugget down there.
00:33The House Republicans are outrunning Donald Trump by nine points, although they're both doing poorly.
00:38But the bottom line is this. When Donald Trump says that voters are angry at Republicans, not him.
00:44That, simply put, is not the case looking at the data.
00:47And in fact, when it comes to what voters want to see members doing vis-a-vis Donald Trump, what
00:53is it?
00:54What do they want him to do? I mean, it's just really clear here.
00:57Take a look here. Voters who want congressional Republicans to do more to stand up to Trump or work with
01:02Trump.
01:0256 percent say more to stand up to Trump. That's what they want congressional Republicans to do,
01:07compared to just 35 percent who say they want congressional Republicans to work more with him.
01:11As I said at the top here, what we're dealing with is Republicans are getting dragged down by Donald Trump,
01:17not the other way around. And indeed, among independents, what we're seeing is 65 percent.
01:21They want congressional Republicans to do more to stand up to Trump.
01:26So, again, the president, simply put, is full of it.
01:29Yeah, he's saying it's not me, it's you, but it turns out it's him.
01:33It's him. It's him. It's a relationship. And in this case, it's him.
01:37And you've got more numbers to show this.
01:38Yeah, OK. What about Republicans, right?
01:40You know, all this idea, oh, Republicans, you know, they're upset with the congressional Republicans not working with me enough
01:46necessarily.
01:46But again, how Republican voters are feeling, this is the Republican base.
01:50Ninety four percent of them say that they're going to vote for or choosing Republicans for the House.
01:54Look, President Trump isn't doing poorly with Republicans, but he's not doing as well as House Republicans are on the
02:00generic congressional ballot.
02:01He's just getting 80 percent right now approval among Republicans.
02:04So some quick math for you. Ninety four minus 18.
02:07The House Republicans are actually the ones that are outrunning Donald Trump by 14 points.
02:11This number is higher than this number.
02:14Yes, it is.
02:14OK, so just talk to us about what the prediction markets are then saying about the Senate.
02:18Yeah, OK. Republicans actually have a chance to hold the Senate, chance to win the Senate in 2026, 53 percent
02:23chance compared to the Democrats, 47 percent chance.
02:26But that is simply put because voters who disapprove of Donald Trump may actually still vote Republican for the United
02:33States Senate.
02:34Dem House incumbents losing primaries in 2026.
02:36We're already up to six. That marks the highest for a non-post census cycle in at least 50 years.
02:45Democrats are infuriated with their party.
02:47And as I said at the beginning, they're throwing them out.
02:50First of all, that was a very nice move.
02:51Second of all, is it just a matter of them losing in races for reelection or are they being thwarted
02:56elsewhere as well?
02:57They are being thwarted elsewhere as well, as I almost take on an old-timey accent.
03:02Take a look here. Dem nominees for Senate and Gov per cycle.
03:05Sitting U.S. House members so far this year, zero, zero, zero.
03:10Haley Stevens, of course, wanted to go up and be the nominee for Senate.
03:13Didn't happen. The 2000s average is four.
03:16Sure. If this zero holds, that would be obviously a record or tied for a record.
03:20But there is one favorite up, Chris Pappas up in New Hampshire.
03:23But that would still be a low for a midterm in the 2000s.
03:27So we're not just seeing it in terms of primaries for the House.
03:30We're seeing it as they try and climb the ladder as well.
03:33What is one of the problems that incumbents are having?
03:36What is one of the problems that incumbents are having?
03:39How about this? Dems who say that their party is closely tied to elite interests.
03:42Look at this. Fifty-one percent of all Democrats. Fifty-nine percent of those who like the DSA as well.
03:50But this is a mainstream thing where it's not just DSA Dems who think that their party is closely tied
03:55to elite interests.
03:56It's the party at large. No wonder the incumbents are struggling so much in these primaries this season.
04:02This is a notable thing here. The similarity between these two numbers is because you always seem to think,
04:06oh, this is just a progressive thing, a progressive thing.
04:08No, it is the entire party that is frustrated with their leadership.
04:13OK, and as we look at the map, I mean, I know people think, hey, we're well into August now.
04:17We must be done with primaries. We're not.
04:20We are not done with primaries. You think that six is high?
04:23I think it's going to climb even higher. Take a look at this.
04:26OK, chance that seven or more House incumbents lose their primary in 2026.
04:30We're up to a 93 percent chance per the Calcio prediction market.
04:34So we're already at a record, but we're going to climb even higher if we think what's going to happen
04:40does happen in these House primaries
04:41because we have Massachusetts, we have Connecticut, we have a whole slew left to be done.
04:45You ain't seen nothing yet. I'm counting down the five biggest drops in Trump's net popularity rating on the different
04:51issues
04:52from number five all the way up to the greatest single one in this video right over here.
04:56The MAGA movement was built among the working class, non-college Americans.
05:02And take a look at this trend line that we're looking at in the data.
05:04Here we go. OK, net favorability rating, the MAGA movement, non-college adults.
05:08Back in October of 2024, look at that. On the plus side of the ledger, positive, plus six points.
05:14Down we go into the Atlantic Ocean. Now look at this movement.
05:18Now minus 22 points. That is a shift, Johnny B, of 28 points away from the MAGA movement, away with
05:28non-college Americans.
05:30So the bottom line is, it's the group at which the Trump movement was built upon.
05:34They are shifting away and saying, we don't like MAGA anymore.
05:37Same question, same poll here. This is really interesting to see these numbers move like that.
05:41Yes, exactly right. It's the same question, same poll.
05:44All right. So how about what the same group is saying about Donald Trump specifically?
05:49Yeah, OK. So you know what? The idea being, OK, maybe they've soured on MAGA, but they haven't saved, soured
05:55on MAGA, but maybe they haven't soured on me, Donald Trump might be saying.
05:58Ain't the truth. Take a look here. OK. Non-college voters on Trump. Hello. OK.
06:03In the 2024 election, he won them by 13 points, right? That was the reason he won.
06:07He won among non-college voters, a very strong performance amongst them.
06:11And that, of course, was the reason he was able to win, because college voters were against him.
06:15But look at this now. Minus 19 points. Minus 19 points. We're talking about an even bigger shift here.
06:21We're talking about, what is this? This is a 32-point shift away from the president of the United States
06:27when it comes to his key core political group.
06:30This is why he's in so much trouble. It's not just that college voters are against Trump now.
06:34It turns out that non-college voters, the ones that he built his presidential bid on, have waved adios, goodbye,
06:40see you later, Mr. Trump.
06:41We don't like you anymore.
06:42So what impact might this have on Republican House members?
06:45OK, Johnny B is asking the key question here.
06:48Because maybe they're abandoning President Trump, but you know what?
06:51The midterm elections, they may not like Democrats either.
06:53Well, if you're a congressional Republican, you wish that to be true, I have bad news for you.
06:58Because it turns out that the non-college voters are turning on you too.
07:01And it may, in fact, turn you out of power in the congressional elections coming up in the midterms.
07:05Choice for the House, non-college voters.
07:072024 election, look at this.
07:09Republicans plus 13 points.
07:11Now Democrats, Democrats actually lead among non-college voters in an average of polls.
07:17It's just a point.
07:18But you know what?
07:18When it comes to a point, and given how well the Democrats are doing among college voters,
07:22these are the types of numbers in which blue waves are built.
07:25And therefore, we can say that the key group that put Donald Trump in the White House,
07:28the key group that he built the MAGA movement upon,
07:31is leaving him, and it's leaving congressional Republicans too.
07:34This is the best-looking polling for Democrats in a Senate race since, really, the 20th century.
07:41You're going to have to go back probably to late 80s,
07:43the last time they won a Senate race out there,
07:46when it was Lloyd Benson winning in 1988.
07:48Because just take a look here.
07:50This polling looks so much different than it did eight years ago.
07:53You take a look here, James Tallarico, the latest poll against Ken Paxton,
07:56he's actually up by three points.
07:58Look at where the race was between Beto O'Rourke and Ted Cruz at this point in the 2018 cycle.
08:03Ted Cruz was a hit-by-six.
08:04This is very different.
08:05The Democrat here is doing nine points better.
08:07And what is supercharging that?
08:09Look at this.
08:11Independents move from tied to plus 39 points for James Tallarico.
08:16Independents, the name of the game, shifting significantly to the left camp,
08:20and supercharging James Tallarico.
08:22So it could be real.
08:24Every single time I look at the polling, I'm going, hmm, this can't be right.
08:26This could be very, very real.
08:28Democrats have a real shot in Texas.
08:30So 26 different than 2018.
08:33Ted Cruz, again, who won, but it was very, very close.
08:36Very close. Less than three points.
08:37How is Ted Cruz different than Paxton?
08:40How is Ted Cruz different than Ken Paxton?
08:42Simply put, Ted Cruz is popular.
08:44Ken Paxton is not popular at all.
08:46That is, I think, one of the biggest differences in this race.
08:48Take a look here.
08:49The GOP nominee's net favorability.
08:51In July of 2018, Ted Cruz was eight points above water.
08:55His favorable was eight points above his unfavorable rating.
08:57Look at this side of the screen.
08:58Very different indeed.
09:00Ken Paxton, six points underwater with, get this, among independents, 47 points underwater.
09:06No wonder.
09:08No wonder that you're seeing major issues for Ken Paxton in this race so far.
09:12How's the president doing in Texas?
09:13Well, here's the other thing that's going on.
09:15How's the president doing in Texas?
09:16The president is supercharging Democratic possibilities across red states.
09:20Remember, Donald Trump won Texas by double digits, but now he's nine points underwater.
09:25He was slightly underwater back in 2018, but he's much further underwater right now in the great state of Texas.
09:32So Texas, if it were to flip, would be fairly key for the math for Democrats to try to take
09:37back the Senate.
09:37What are the prediction markets saying right now about those changes?
09:39You know, all of a sudden you put Texas in play, you put places like Iowa, Ohio in play.
09:44You know, you're talking about Alaska being potentially in play.
09:47Look at this, chance to win the Senate.
09:49Now it's basically an even race.
09:51Republicans were three to two favorites a month ago.
09:53Look at where we are right now.
09:55Now Republicans' chances have fallen significantly.
09:57Just a 53% chance to hold down the United States Senate.
10:01Democrats have a real shot indeed.
10:02Max Miller is going to cost his party, most likely cost his party a seat in the U.S. House
10:07of Representatives when we're talking about the politics of this.
10:10You could see this quite well in the couch prediction market.
10:12Chance to win Ohio, seven.
10:13Look at this, Poindexter, the Democrat, 37% on July 25th.
10:17Over the last few weeks, his chances, way up to 70%.
10:20Max Miller's chances, look at this, falling down through the floor, falling into Lake Erie, going from 64% now
10:27down to 30%.
10:28What seemed like a race that was favoring Miller is now favoring the Democrat, Poindexter, as this scandal has hit
10:34the press.
10:35Let's just know, this was 10 days ago.
10:36Yeah, this is 10 days ago.
10:38This is not that long ago.
10:39That's a huge change in just a few days.
10:41And Harry, you and I have been talking about this.
10:43Is there a way to measure the impact that scandals have on House races?
10:48Yes, scandals matter.
10:50Scandals matter.
10:51I know a lot of people think nothing matters, but scandals still do matter in our politics.
10:55And there's an easy way to see it.
10:56Okay, House members re-elected in 2022 and 2024.
11:00All members, we're talking about 85%, including those who, in fact, did not run for re-election.
11:05When you include those in the denominator, we're talking about 85%.
11:07How about members who are involved in a scandal?
11:09Look at that, significantly lower.
11:11Just 57% of them who are involved in a scandal.
11:15So they do about 30 points worse on their chance of being re-elected than all members of Congress do.
11:21So scandals absolutely do matter, like the scandal that we're seeing right now in Ohio, Seth.
11:26How much interest is there in what's happening with Max Miller?
11:28Yeah, more than that, there is a lot of interest in what's going on in his home area.
11:32You can see it in the Google searches.
11:34Take a look here.
11:34Wow.
11:35Google searches for Max Miller.
11:37Look at this.
11:37In Cleveland, the Akron area, which is his home area, look at that.
11:40John said, wow, up 3,200% in just the last two weeks.
11:46This is by far the record high for Max Miller in his home area.
11:51The people there are listening to what is going on with Max Miller.
11:55And obviously, the stories are not flattering to him whatsoever.
11:58And I said, this is a Trump district, a Republican district.
12:03But is it as Republican, maybe?
12:05Or what are the trends in Ohio?
12:06Yeah, I think this is so important.
12:08This is already shaping up to be a bad Republican year in Ohio.
12:12When you have a scandal to tack onto it, no wonder the prediction markets have moved like they have.
12:16Take a look here.
12:17Ohio voters on Trump in 2024 versus Kamala Harris.
12:21He won by 11 points.
12:22Look at his net popularity rating now.
12:25Exactly right, Johnny B.
12:27Minus 13 points.
12:28That's a nearly 25-point shift in under two years.
12:32And keep in mind, Ohio 7 voted like Ohio as a whole.
12:35So what is going on in Ohio very much will seep down to Ohio 7.
12:39You put it all together.
12:40It is no wonder why I said at the top of this, Max Miller already running in a tough environment
12:45with this scandal.
12:46And if he continues from, will likely cost his party a house seat.
12:50It has been a steady decline, like a slide going into the sea.
12:55You know, you go back January 2025, plus 6.
12:58May of 2025, minus 7.
13:00September of 2025, minus 8.
13:02December of 2025, minus 13.
13:04April of 2026, minus 17.
13:05And now, in an average of polls, he is 21 points under water.
13:12This is the lowest he has been in term number two.
13:16The bottom line is this.
13:18Trump is at record lows for himself in term number two.
13:22He is very much underwater, despite whatever he is claiming up in his head of his.
13:27A slide going into the sea, evocative imagery there from Harry.
13:31When did this slide begin?
13:32When did this slide begin?
13:34When did Trump's slide into the sea begin?
13:37I mean, just take a look here.
13:38I mean, you know, it'd be one thing, again, if we were talking about just one poll.
13:42But we're talking about the average polls.
13:44But when we're talking about one poll, is there any poll that has Trump anywhere close to positive territory?
13:49Take a look here.
13:50Trump's negative net approval rating.
13:52Every single poll that meets CNN standards for publication has had Donald Trump underwater in the negative since March 29th
14:00of 2025.
14:01Days in a row, it is 494, nearly 500 days in which Donald Trump has had a negative net approval
14:11rating.
14:11He's not anywhere close to positive.
14:13The Lou Gehrig of presidents in terms of low approval.
14:15He is the Lou Gehrig, the cow ripkin of negative ratings.
14:17But people would say, hey, look, you know, the president had low approval ratings in his first term also.
14:22Not this low.
14:23Not this low.
14:24Take a look here.
14:24Trump's net approval rating at this point.
14:26In term one at this point, he was 12 points underwater.
14:28He has now broken the 20-point barrier in the negative, minus 20 points.
14:33And you know I always love a little nugget here.
14:35Goes from minus 8 to minus 47 points with independents who are driving this.
14:39And what do the prediction of markets say this means about his chances of maintaining control of the House?
14:43Yeah, OK.
14:44If you have a negative 21 net approval rating, no way your party controls the House if this holds until
14:50Election Day.
14:50Chance to win the House.
14:52Democrats now up to an 84% chance, up from 73% just a few months ago.
14:57Republicans now with just a 16% chance, according to the cash prediction markets.
15:01Trump's negative net approval rating is driving this.
15:03Once else I became the favorite for that nomination, and now that he's actually become the nominee, Democratic chances have
15:09fallen dramatically.
15:10You can see it right here, Cash and Prediction odds.
15:13Take a look here.
15:13Chance to win the Michigan Senate race.
15:15You go back to April at this point in the month.
15:17Dems had a 79% chance.
15:19Look how that number has fallen dramatically.
15:22Down we go in the Lake Michigan.
15:23Now we're talking about just a 59% chance, while Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee, look at this.
15:2921% chance, basically doubling now up to a 41% chance.
15:33So the people who are putting their money where their mouths are, quite skeptical at this point, or at least
15:38significantly more skeptical,
15:39that Democrats will be able to hold on to the Michigan Senate seat with El-Sayed as the nominee.
15:45Though I still should note, he is the slight favorite here.
15:48But given Michigan being a purple state and given where Trump's approval rating is,
15:52I think it's quite surprising that his numbers are not significantly higher.
15:55Let's talk about where things broke down and what that means for the future.
15:59El-Sayed talks about being the candidate for the working family, the working class.
16:04How did they vote for him in the primary?
16:06Yeah, this I think is the big problem, right?
16:08Democrats have been hemorrhaging working class voters, voters without a college education.
16:12El-Sayed comes in, the great promise of him, so my populist message, I can connect with those voters.
16:17While in the primary, it didn't happen.
16:19Take a look here.
16:20Okay, counties El-Sayed won in the primary.
16:22Zero of 15, zero of 15 with the lowest share of college degrees.
16:28Ergo, he did not win in those working class areas.
16:31Where he did win, he won 13 of the 15 counties with the highest share of college degrees.
16:36So you're thinking about Democrats having real trouble amongst the working class.
16:40El-Sayed support came dramatically from those areas.
16:44In fact, not where there is working class folks, but where there are highly educated folks.
16:49More from elite circles than from the working class circles, and I think there's real worries among Democrats.
16:54Well, will that transfer over to the general election and El-Sayed continue to have the problems that prior Democrats
16:59have had with the working class?
17:01You think that's not the only worry the Democrats should have here?
17:03No, it's not the only worry because, I mean, the polling, the polling estimated El-Sayed's primary margin by about
17:0910 points.
17:10And I think there's a real question, will that happen in the general election again?
17:13Because the general election polling is quite tight.
17:16And what we know in Michigan is the candidate of the college degrees tend to be overestimated.
17:21Will that happen with El-Sayed?
17:22Maybe, but I think it's just another worry in why this race has closed dramatically and the folks who are
17:27trying to handicap it.
17:27This is about 30 to 40 percent of the party, depending on how you exactly look at it.
17:31Versus Kamala Harris, Trump easily was winning amongst them by 69 points back in October of 2024.
17:37Come over to this side of the screen. Look at this decline in Lake Erie.
17:41I mean, right now we're talking about us. We're talking about just a plus 10 net approval rate.
17:46This is within his own party. This is within his own party. He's just barely above water.
17:51Do the quick math with me. That's 69, 10. That's a 59 point drop.
17:57That is five and nine in the course of under two years.
18:02So moderate Republicans abandoning Donald John Trump. And that is a big uh-oh.
18:09And where and why?
18:11Why? Why? Well, you were mentioning it in your intro, right? It's the economy.
18:16You think a 59 point drop is a lot? How about this one?
18:20Okay. Woo! This is a 77 point drop.
18:26Okay, moderate GOP on Trump and the economy. Back in October of 2024, he was more trusted than Kamala Harris
18:32by 80 points.
18:33Now he's just one, two, three points above water.
18:38That is, as I said, a 77 point drop on the key issue that got Donald Trump re-elected to
18:45a second term,
18:45where the Republican Party was lockstep and key with him.
18:49Moderate Republicans have abandoned Donald Trump, and now he is just treading water with a group that overwhelmingly supported him.
18:57And to reinforce, this isn't overall, this is with moderate Republicans within his party.
19:02We're seeing this.
19:02This is moderate, this is coming over to your side of the screen.
19:06Moderate Republicans within his own party.
19:09We are talking about moderates, and they make up about 30 to 40 percent of the party.
19:12Okay, and where in the economy? Why is it, when it comes to the economy, where in the economy is
19:17it hurting most?
19:18Yeah, okay, so you see these positives.
19:20Even though Trump has dropped tremendously, we've seen some positives on this side of the screen, right?
19:25All right, how about time for some negatives?
19:27Okay, moderate Republicans, Trump's net approval.
19:29On Iran, he's six points underwater within his own party, within his own party.
19:34You think that's low? How about 17 points underwater on inflation?
19:39Inflation was the name of the game with the economy back in 2024.
19:42Now moderate Republicans, who make up roughly 30 to 40 percent of the party, have absolutely left Donald Trump aside,
19:48and he is underwater on the key issue of the day.
19:51If I'm a Republican running for Congress in those swing districts, I need those moderate Republicans,
19:55and they are leaving Donald Trump.
19:57They may be leaving those Republican candidates as well.
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