00:00Wheretvizli bill solar sector ki tezya or China per Amerikā ki sakti.
00:04In tīnōke bīc eq connection hai, Donald Trump.
00:07Aur eek baat jho hum sab jantate hai ki Trump aur unke tarif nahi rukhe nghe.
00:11Lekin Wheretvizli bill solar sector ki speed or China per Amerikā ki sakti.
00:19Akir eq aisa connection joh jjud raha hai,
00:22woh Bharatki karođo dollar ki solar industry per khatrar đar ra hai.
00:26Donald Trump has made a decision in which the company of the share-bazaar
00:32and the whole business of the entire calculation will be changed.
00:38After all, this is how much impact India has been in India,
00:41and you need to take a look at it?
00:44This is all you will understand in this video,
00:47and we will also tell you,
00:48that in which way,
00:50he has made a decision in which Donald Trump has a negative effect.
00:54in China.
00:58But India has an adverse impact on India.
01:01If you look at the bazaar, you will also be able to do it.
01:07First of all, what is the last case?
01:10America has a new product for polysilicon.
01:15Also, the minimum import price, which is the highest price,
01:22which is the highest price.
01:23This is the highest price of polysilicon.
01:25The question is, what is polysilicon?
01:30Let me tell you.
01:32Semiconductor chip and solar panels,
01:34for example, hypothetical.
01:38Polysilicon is the base.
01:41It's called ultra-pure silicon.
01:43It's called wafers, solar cells, and solar panels.
01:49If the supply of polysilicon is very difficult,
01:53then the whole solar manufacturing chain will be affected.
01:56But America has a new decision.
02:00We have already told you that China.
02:02In the world, polysilicon is the biggest production chain.
02:05It means that China is a company,
02:08and China has all the systematic dividend.
02:10And it's always that China has the total sovereign market.
02:12But it were a strong company.
02:15In this way,
02:16the Trump administration will build up domestic manufacturing
02:19in China,
02:20so that the solar supply chain is on China.
02:25It's exactly the same way.
02:33If you say it,
02:35which is what is included in this new product.
02:38There is only 15% tariff.
02:41America has a minimum import price for many products.
02:46For polysilicon, for 21 dollars per kilogram.
02:50For ingots and wifers, for 100 dollars per kilogram.
02:53For solar cells, for 22 cents per watt.
02:56For solar modules, for 38 cents per watt.
03:01For commerce department,
03:02for domestic manufacturing,
03:04the incentive program has also given permission.
03:08What is the biggest question?
03:10What do you have to do with China?
03:14Why do you have to do this decision?
03:15What do you have to do with China?
03:16What do you have to do with China?
03:17What do you have to do with China?
03:20Do you have to do the solar manufacturing hub?
03:23It has a big export.
03:26In the Reuters report,
03:28India,
03:30American trade investigations and counter-vailing duties.
03:34Now, the price floor is going to increase.
03:45In the short term,
03:47it is very negative.
03:50In the short term,
03:51Why?
03:52Because solar sales and modules,
03:54are already in the US,
03:55the trade duties are already in the US.
03:57Now, the new 15% tariff and the minimum price framework,
04:01will increase.
04:03In some cases,
04:04the full duty burden is going to be 140%
04:09is 140% percent.
04:11the 145% percent can be above the price.
04:12But every product,
04:14we have the same as H.S.O.T.S.
04:15of its number.
04:17Now,
04:18the US has the first time on solar products,
04:20the US has been 2.5% in the US.
04:23The largest effect of solar products will be on the basis.
04:27The largest effect of the solar supply chain
04:31is due to the exports.
04:34The largest effect of solar products
04:38foreign
05:08solar modules america bhejhe janei thae unhmei se kaafi zyadha raw material kaafi zyadha maal kaafi zyadha finished product
05:15abharaat aur dousro desho ke bazaaro ki aur moda ja sakta hai
05:18yani supply badeegi lakin demand utmhi tezhi se nahi badeegi
05:22aur jib supply zyadha ho jatii hai toh sabse pehle kya hota hai simple economics price girne lagta hai
05:27yani gharelu bazaar me solar modules sastay ho saktay
05:31developers ko iska fayda milega lekin manufacturers ke margins per dbaab bade jayega
05:36iska eek or asar hooga inventory bade sakti working capital fust sakti
05:41aur jin companyo pere pehle se zyadha karz hai pehle se zyadha loan hai
05:46unke liye muskile aur zyadha bade sakti hai
05:48khas kar chhoote manufacturers per iska asar dikhai dhe sakti hai
05:52ab baat kerttei share market ki
05:54kon kon si companya hai joh sabse zyadha prabhaavit ho sakti hai
05:58is list me sabse pehla nama raha hai wari energies ka
06:02kyunki company ka overseas revenue kaafi bada hai
06:05aur ameriki bazaar mei iski achi maujudgi hai
06:08abe agar amerika se orders dhimae pard jayenge
06:10ya pricing pressure bard jayega
06:12to revenue और margin दोनों पर असर बढ़ सकta hai
06:16halakki eek rahat ki baat ye bhi hai
06:17ki wari ki amerika me manufacturing
06:19maujud hai
06:20और company alternate sourcing strategy
06:23पर bhi kama kar raha hai
06:24इसलिए असली नुकसान उतना बड़ा
06:26नहीं भी हो सकता है
06:27जितना पहली बार में दिखाई दे रहा है
06:29दूसरी company है
06:31Vikram Solar
06:32इसका export exposure वारी जितना बड़ा नहीं है
06:35management का कहना है
06:36कि वो कई products के लिए
06:37lower tariff countries से self-source कर रही है
06:40इसलिए इसका असर limited रह सकता है
06:43लेकिन export growth पर दबाव जरूर दिखाई देगा
06:46अब अगर premier energies की बात करें
06:49तो इसका direct US risk comparatively कम आना जा रहा है
06:53लेकिन अगर भारत में modules की कीमतें गिर जाएंगी
06:56तो competition बढ़ेगा
06:57और margins पर असर आ सकता है
06:59अब सवाल यह की और भी companies है market में
07:03Tata Power, Adani Energies और JSW Energy जैसी कमपनियों पर भी असर होगा क्या
07:08हाँ होगा
07:09लेकिन तरीका लगे
07:10यह कमपनियां बड़े पैमाने पर solar projects develop करती है
07:13इनका business सीधे module export करने पर dependent नहीं है
07:17अगर भारत में module सस्ते होते हैं
07:19तो इनके project cost कम हो सकते हैं
07:22आनि manufacturers के लिए जो चुनोती है
07:24वही developers के लिए एक opportunity भी बन सकती है
07:28आब आते हैं investors पर
07:31निवेशिकों के लिए सबसे जरूरी बात
07:33सिर्फ 15% tariff देखकर किसी भी solar stock को खरीदना या बेच देना सही पैसलान नहीं होगा
07:38क्योंकि हर company की situation अलग है
07:41निवेशिकों को चार चीज़ों पर सबसे ज्यादा नज़र दखनी है
07:44पहला, company की US revenue कितनी है
07:47दूसरा, क्या company Indian origin sales इस्तेमाल करती है या alternate sourcing करती है
07:52तीसरा, US order book में cancellation हो रहा है या नहीं
07:57और च्यों था, domestic market में apta margin किस direction में जा रहा है
08:01ये चार चीज़ों के उपर investors को जरूर से नज़र रखनी है
08:04तो कुल मिलाकर के bottom line यही है कि short term में भारतिया solar exportals के लिए
08:10ये फैसला चुनौती लेकर के आया है
08:12export volumes कम हो सकते है
08:14margins पर दबाव बढ़ सकता है
08:15और valuation में भी उतार चरहाव यानि volatility देखने को मिल सकती है
08:19medium term में भारत की oversupply बढ़ने की आशंका है
08:23जिससे solar modules की कीमतें नीचे आ सकती है
08:25इसका फायदा solar project developers को मिल सकता है
08:28लेकिन long term की तस्वीर अभी भी पूरी तरह negative नहीं है
08:32अगर Indian companies, Europe, Middle East, Africa और domestic market में
08:37अपनी export diversify करने में successful रहती है
08:40तो sector की growth story खतम हो की नहीं
08:43यानि फिल्हाल घबराने की नहीं
08:44बलगे आने वाले कुछ महीनों में
08:46companies की earnings, order books, management, guidance
08:49और export data पर नज़र अखने की जरूरत है
08:51क्योंकि Donald Trump का ये फैसला सिर्फ एक टारथ नहीं है
08:55ये global solar industry के power balance की बदलने की शुरुआत की सकता है
09:00वैसे आपको क्या लगता है
09:02solar panel industries में या solar panel stocks में अगर आप invest कर रहे है
09:05तो आपको उनका future कैसा दिखाई दे रहा है
09:08investment करने से पहले आपने क्या कुछ देखा है
09:10comment section में बताईए का सब्सक्राइब
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