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八点最热报 | 霍尔木兹海峡出现转机,美伊谈判露出曙光。但这场危机里,最大的变数,始终还是在谈判桌之外。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡一边强调特朗普是“白宫最好的朋友”;另一边,却把最清晰的红线划给华盛顿看:以色列的安全,不能交给任何一份协议决定。所以,即使美伊握手,也不代表以伊之间的敌意会消失?(主播:蔡心慧)

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00:00A reminder before watching the video
00:01Popular websites have more content
00:04According to Iran's official news agency
00:06Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on a...
00:08Agree on a unified route for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz
00:12But whether the strait will be developed
00:14Ultimately, it depends on whether the United States fulfills its commitments.
00:18Iran, on the other hand, has put it bluntly.
00:20The map is drawn.
00:21The route is set
00:22The agreement with Oman has also been finalized.
00:24Only one note left
00:26The subtext is only one sentence
00:28We have already made the concessions.
00:30Now it's America's turn to respond.
00:32How can Trump accept this gift gracefully?
00:37Before there is an official response...
00:39US President Trump reiterated
00:41He didn't want to kill anyone.
00:42Hoping to resolve the crisis through negotiations
00:45Stop and start
00:46He once again repackaged a diplomatic breakthrough as an attempt to avoid war.
00:49Giving way at the negotiating table
00:51Transform it into a political victory
00:53This is what Trump is talking about.
00:55A world war-level attack
00:57The Heroic Script That Was Halted
01:00For Trump
01:01What he really didn't want
01:02Besides being a war
01:03They also do not want to face a crisis that will drag down the US economic and political prospects.
01:08Because of the gunfire in the Middle East
01:10These are two sets of figures that are most sensitive to American voters.
01:13Oil prices and inflation
01:15When oil prices fell to around $75
01:17Trump has seen a number that can be written into his political record.
01:21How can this crisis be ended in a way that allows everyone to say they are right?
01:27Did you win?
01:28For Iran
01:30Concessions can be exchanged for pressure.
01:32For Trump
01:33An agreement can become a diplomatic victory.
01:36If the United States ultimately returns to the negotiating table
01:38Trump could easily have turned a decision that could have been seen as a way of backing down.
01:42Repackaged as an attempt to avoid war
01:45In international competition
01:47The outcome is not solely determined by who concedes.
01:49It remains to be seen who can define the outcome of this game.
01:53To portray compromise as victory
01:55Packaging concessions as saving the world
01:58However, any performance that avoids war
02:00Who is the real winner?
02:05Tensions in the Middle East have seen a glimmer of hope in the past two days.
02:09Iran announced that it has reached an agreement with Oman on a passage route through the Strait of Hormuz.
02:13Consensus
02:13Both sides are working on final arrangements.
02:16This lifeline connecting the Persian Gulf with the global energy market
02:20Once traffic resumes
02:21More than just relieving regional pressure
02:23This may also give international oil prices some breathing room.
02:26However, Iran also emphasized
02:28Has the Strait truly reopened?
02:30The key still remains in the hands of the United States.
02:33This means that Iran and Oman have already stated their positions.
02:36Acceptance is permitted
03:05The United States has not yet made a statement regarding Iran.
03:07Responding to the latest statement
03:09However, for Trump...
03:10The best outcome for this crisis
03:12Not a war
03:14Instead, it's about completing a transaction.
03:15Trump repeatedly emphasized
03:17He himself prevented a potentially major military operation from escalating.
03:21This also prevented further casualties.
03:23In Trump's narrative
03:24Negotiators represent peace
03:26Peace represents the US gaining the initiative.
03:41However, some commentators immediately pointed out...
03:55Behind US President Trump's compassionate statement that he doesn't want to kill people
03:59Precise calculation
04:00In fact, it's about domestic political votes and economic accounts.
04:03For Trump
04:05The Middle East is already under heavy artillery fire.
04:07US inflation and gasoline prices
04:09Extreme pressure
04:10Then stop at the critical point.
04:12This tactic allows them to boast that they avoided World War III.
04:16It also allows them to bring oil prices back under control in a logical and reasonable manner.
04:44However, what Trump saw was a negotiating table.
04:48What Israel sees is a national security risk.
04:52Trump wants both inflationary and diplomatic benefits.
04:55But Netanyahu wanted a complete elimination.
04:58Absolute security of Iran's nuclear capabilities
05:36Netanyahu said in a high-profile manner
05:38Trump is the White House's best friend
05:40However, the other side openly drew its own red line.
05:43The meaning is quite clear.
05:45The US can negotiate.
05:46But Israel may not necessarily agree.
05:48Because in Israel's view
05:50A single agreement cannot change the long-standing security threat posed by Iran.
05:54If the US relaxes its conditions in order to reach an agreement as soon as possible
05:57Therefore, Israel may still choose to take action on its own.
06:01The so-called allies of the United States and Israel
06:03At this moment, it's more like everyone is calculating their own actions.
06:09The Strait of Hormuz may be about to reopen.
06:11Oil prices may also fall.
06:13What the market sees is that peace is approaching.
06:16But the real uncertainty in the Middle East
06:19But it did not disappear
06:20Because as long as Trump is pursuing an agreement that can be signed.
06:24Lake Netanya, however, insists on non-negotiable security.
06:27The US and Iran can shake hands
06:29However, this does not mean that Israel and Iran will not start fighting again.
06:38A turning point has emerged in the Strait of Hormuz.
06:40A glimmer of hope appears in US-Iran negotiations
06:43The Middle East seems to have pressed the pause button.
06:45But a pause does not mean an end.
06:48Because in this crisis
06:49The biggest variable always lies outside the negotiating table.
06:54Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasized
06:56Trump is the White House's best friend
06:59Thank you for the support from the United States.
07:00But on the other hand, the clearest red line was drawn for Washington to see.
07:04Israel's security cannot be determined by any single agreement.
07:09Therefore, even if the US and Iran shake hands...
07:11This does not mean that the hostility between Israel and Iran will disappear.
07:14As long as the nuclear crisis is not truly resolved...
07:17As long as the bottom line for security between the United States and its Israeli allies remains...
07:22Disagreement
07:22The time bomb in the Middle East will never be truly defused.
07:26Will Israel itself press the button next?
07:31And what will the US position be?
07:33This is the biggest unknown in this crisis.
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