00:07Donald Trump has a style of diplomacy that the world now knows very well he doesn't begin with
00:13negotiations he begins with pressure then comes a warning if that doesn't work the warning becomes
00:19a threat and if the threat doesn't work either the military steps in that is exactly what the
00:26world is witnessing once again in the last US Iran confrontation president Donald Trump has now
00:31issued perhaps his strongest warning yet he says that every single attack by Iran on ships passing
00:37through the Strait of Hormuz will invite a direct American response not just any response Trump says
00:44the United States will destroy one bridge or one power plant near Tehran every single time Iran
00:50attacks a commercial ship it doesn't matter whether Iran uses a missile a drone or even a
00:57rocket Trump's message is simple one attack one major piece of Iranian infrastructure destroyed
01:03it sounds like deterrence but here's the big question has this strategy actually worked so
01:10far for the US let's look at the past few weeks every time Washington has raised the stakes Iran
01:16has responded by raising them to the United States struck Iranian military facilities Iran answered
01:22with missiles and drones targeting American bases the US widen its targets Iran widen its battlefield
01:29American strikes moved beyond military sites to roads ports bridges and infrastructure Iran
01:36expanded attacks beyond Iraq and Syria targeting American interests and partners across the government
01:42the United States the United States says it will not stop Iran says it will not surrender this is no
01:48longer just retaliation there is becoming what strategists call an escalation ladder each slide
01:55climbs one step higher the other side refuses to stay below and eventually both sides reach a point where
02:02climbing down becomes politically harder than climbing further up that is why many analysts say this conflict is
02:10becoming increasingly difficult to control it brings to mind Mahatma Gandhi's famous warning an eye for an eye
02:17makes the whole world blind Gandhi was speaking about violence feeding more violence today the Middle East appears
02:25trapped in exactly that cycle one strike invites another one threat produces a bigger threat neither side wants to
02:34appear weak but both sides are paying a growing price now let's understand why the street of
02:40Hormuz has become the center of this confrontation many people ask a simple question does the
02:47Strait of Hormuz actually belong to Iran the answer is no the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway it
02:55is a
02:55narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea its
03:01northern coastline is controlled by Iran the southern side is shared by Oman and the United Arab Emirates because it
03:08is an
03:08international strait international law allows commercial ships from all countries to pass through it no
03:15single country owns it however Iran occupies one side of this narrow passage that gives Tehran enormous
03:22strategic leverage nearly one-fifth of the world's oil exports pass through Hormuz countries like Saudi
03:30Arabia Iraq Iraq Kuwait Qatar and the UAE all depend heavily on this route if Hormuz slows down global oil
03:39prices rise insurance costs increase shipping companies become nervous fuel becomes more expensive and
03:46economies thousands of kilometers away from India to Europe to America feel the pinch that is why Iran often
03:53describes Hormuz as one of its strongest bargaining chips whenever sanctions tighten or military pressure
04:01increases Tehran reminds the world that it has the capability to disrupt one of the most important
04:07energy routes on earth the Strait of Hormuz now comes another important question if Iran negotiated with
04:14President Barack Obama in 2015 why is it refusing to accept the current memorandum of understanding under
04:20Donald Trump to understand that we need to go back a decade in 2015 Iran and six world powers signed
04:28what became known as the joint comprehensive plan of action or the nuclear deal under the agreement Iran
04:34accepted strict limits on its nuclear program in return international sanctions were eased the deal
04:40wasn't perfect but it created predictability Iran received economic relief the West received greater
04:47oversight of Iran's nuclear activities then came a major turning point in 2018 during his first
04:54presidency Donald Trump withdrew the United States from that agreement Washington argued the deal was
05:00too weak and failed to address Iran's missile program and regional influence the Trump administration
05:06instead adopted a policy of maximum pressure through tougher sanctions from Tehran's perspective this
05:14changed everything Iran's leaders now argue that they cannot simply trust other American promise
05:20their reasoning is straightforward if one US president signs an agreement and the next president tears it
05:27up what guarantee exists that a future agreement will survive another election that trust deficit hangs over
05:34every negotiation today which is why even though both Washington and Tehran continue sending diplomatic
05:40signals to intermediaries neither side appears ready to make the first major compromise and that
05:47leaves us with the bigger question is Trump's threat-based approach making America safer or making the region
05:55more dangerous supporters argue that only overwhelming pressure can force Iran to change its behavior
06:02critics counter that repeated threats encourage Iran to harden its position expand retaliation and rally
06:10domestic support against external pressure history offers examples for both arguments military
06:16pressure has at times brought adversaries to the negotiation table but prolonged cycles of escalation have
06:23also led to conflicts that neither side originally intended to fight today the risk is that every new
06:30threat narrows the space for diplomacy when leaders publicly promised retaliation backing down becomes politically
06:38costly and that increases the danger of miscalculation the coming weeks may therefore decide whether the Middle East moves back
06:47toward negotiations or slips further into a conflict where every strike invites another every threat demands a response and
06:57Gandhi is warning that an eye for an eye leaves everyone blind becomes less a moral lesson and more a
07:05geopolitical reality
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