00:00It's seeming like sentiment has really dipped as far as where this conflict is.
00:04It seems like the U.S. and Iran, back to an all-out war.
00:08How do you assess this current moment?
00:14So I call this current moment restrained, calibrated,
00:21although Kuwait and Bahrain's experience over the last week
00:24certainly won't have felt like that.
00:27We should see the events of the last 10 days in particular,
00:31going back to the end of the week before,
00:34as both sides trying to pressure each other on the components of the MOU
00:39that they each see the other as not following through on.
00:43That boils down to Iran's perception that it should be able to control the Strait of Hormuz
00:49and there are clauses within the MOU that allow that.
00:51And then also America's perception of what it thinks is acceptable
00:56Iranian action and how Iran is implementing the MOU.
01:01So this certainly isn't all-out war yet.
01:06And really both sides are,
01:09although they're incrementally intensifying their activities over the last several days,
01:13and the attacks on water and power plants in Kuwait really bear that through,
01:21they are still leaving space to come back to the negotiating table.
01:28I know it doesn't feel like that,
01:31but we are still some way from the kind of hostility that we saw during the first several days of
01:38March.
01:38But is it possible that we move towards that?
01:41Yes.
01:42And it's still very difficult to see what will be the prompt that causes both countries to agree that this
01:50round of jostling is over
01:53and that they will go back to the negotiating table.
01:55So we're probably set for another couple of days of what we've experienced over the last nine nights.
02:01Well, Niamh, how much of a concern is it that we're seeing troops being killed?
02:06We have the President of the United States making comments around that.
02:10Do you see that not potentially being a catalyst for more escalation, potentially ground troops?
02:20So, I mean, the fatalities on both sides are incredibly unfortunate.
02:25It is a consequence of war.
02:27It is, I think, probably quite shocking to a number of Americans
02:31because there have been relatively few American fatalities during this conflict.
02:37So it is disappointing and is concerning.
02:40It reflects ultimately a failure of certain systems
02:45and the effectiveness of Iranian aggressive systems as well.
02:50But merely because there have been deaths doesn't mean this is a catalyst for a ground operation.
02:58We have seen fatalities earlier on in this conflict, and they were not the prompt for that either.
03:05Ultimately, President Trump is far less inclined to engage in a ground operation
03:15of whatever sort.
03:17There's a couple of different options he could choose from,
03:20whether it's just targeting the islands or whether it's mainland Iran.
03:23But analysis that our teams have done, as well as many in the policy community,
03:30have done over the last couple of months have affirmed it would be an extremely risky endeavor.
03:35And we still ultimately think at control risks that President Trump is much more inclined
03:40to go back to the negotiating table, even at this stage, than to engage in a significant escalation
03:47such as some sort of ground operation.
03:51Is it still possible?
03:52Yes, there are many, many options that we need to leave on the table.
03:56But right now, as of today, we still think he's inclined to negotiate rather than to escalate.
04:02And, Niamh, later this week, we'll see President Trump meeting with President Aoun from Lebanon.
04:09When you think about those negotiations or those discussions that are going to be happening,
04:14is there a likelihood that we could see potentially developments in some of the fighting
04:19that we're seeing in Lebanon from this meeting?
04:24The ambition for the meeting between the presidents is that we see far less fighting and hostility
04:31in Lebanon, ultimately.
04:33Although not everyone in Lebanon's political sphere, including Hezbollah itself and parties
04:41affiliated with Hezbollah, kind of like the way this is going.
04:45But overall, this effort is an important signal that there has been a change in some of Lebanon's
04:54political parties, at least, that it would like to have a little bit more agency in managing
04:59the security environment.
05:01Although, let's be absolutely clear here that, you know, this is a U.S.-arbitrated arrangement
05:10between Lebanon and Israel, and the government ultimately has pretty limited room for manoeuvre
05:18here.
05:19It is possible that, depending on how the meeting between the presidents goes and Iran's response,
05:26that we could see some activity from Hezbollah over the next couple of days, reflecting their
05:31unhappiness with these developments.
05:33But for now, the kind of Lebanon front has been relatively contained, and we still think
05:39it's the case that President Trump would like to keep Lebanon at a much lower tempo, because
05:47he sees a lower level of kinetic activity as absolutely necessary to following through on
05:54this much more peaceful process, whatever Israel and the government and Benjamin Netanyahu feel
06:01about that.
06:02So that pressure from D.C. and the White House is actually very positive and integral to seeing
06:11a much lower level of activity and the progression of this more peaceful process over the next
06:17couple of days and weeks.
