00:02you're listening to ai prism from seoul economic daily all 20 economists in a new survey expect the
00:09bank of korea to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points this thursday that would take the base
00:17rate to 3.75 percent the first hike since january 2023 16 of those economists expect one more hike
00:26before the end of the year growth forecasts just moved higher and so did inflation forecasts
00:33add a semiconductor pricing story that's about to reshape earnings at korea's biggest exporters
00:39it's monday july 13th here's why global investors are paying attention to korea today consumer
00:45prices are running above the central bank's two percent target while the wan stays weak and home
00:51prices keep climbing a semiconductor up cycle is lifting growth at the same time inflation
00:58expectations sit near 2.8 percent that combination of stronger growth and faster inflation is why
01:05economists see this as the start of a tightening cycle not a one-off move here's what the numbers
01:11show the bank of korea is set to raise its base rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75
01:19on thursday
01:20according to all 20 economists surveyed 16 of those economists 80 expect a second hike before year
01:29end pointing to a genuine tightening cycle this year's growth forecast moved to 2.76 percent up from
01:372.53 percent in may's survey inflation forecast climbed to 2.85 percent from 2.69 percent over the same
01:46period 11 of 20 economists put the year-end dollar one rate between 1 460 and 1 500 while six
01:56see it
01:57climbing past 1 500 hbm4 contract prices are on track to jump from roughly two dollars per gigabit this
02:05year to four dollars to five dollars next year according to digitimes industry sources samsung
02:12electronics and sk hynix will finalize 2027 supply contracts around the fourth quarter of this year
02:20locking in that pricing power so what does this mean for institutional investors weighing korea exposure
02:28earlier we said all 20 economists expect a rate hike this week that signal alone raises the cost of
02:35holding one hedge positions as short end yields move higher a 23 basis point growth revision alongside
02:43hbm pricing power gives semiconductor heavy cosby weightings a clearer earnings tailwind into next
02:50year for portfolios weighing rate cycle timing against sector rotation the practical read is that hedging
02:58costs are rising even as semiconductor earnings visibility improves that's today's ai prism global
03:06investors this episode was produced with ai assistance based on sole economic daily reporting and reviewed by
03:13a human editor ai prism is a juan ifra award-winning series we'll be back tomorrow you've been listening
03:21to ai prism from sole economic daily
댓글