00:00We tried in IPEC to approach this problem
00:05by setting out what ought to be some of the shared principles that must
00:10even at a minimalist definition of the status quo constitute it
00:15which would have to be the continuance of Taiwan's self-determination
00:20at the very least
00:21and if you take that as a principle
00:23you can move to the various infringements
00:26that undermine the self-determination of the Taiwanese people
00:31this should be quite simple work
00:33but we're not doing it
00:34and in the absence of doing it
00:35in absence of any substance to the status quo
00:40there's actually not much to defend
00:42the status quo as it we think it might stand now
00:45is very different from what we thought the status quo was five six years ago
00:50because of the amount of activity
00:51that has simply been withstood by the international community
00:55just tolerated
00:56all violations of the status quo
00:58the status quo gets violated every week
01:00so I think we have to try to shrink the grey zone by defining the status quo
01:04but not only that we have to define what our red lines are
01:08the minister also said this earlier
01:09I was really pleased to hear it
01:11we need to know what our red lines are
01:14that would trigger international action around Taiwan
01:17and what that action would be
01:19if we're serious about deterrence
01:21this was the mistake with Ukraine
01:23one of the many
01:25there was no international agreement
01:26over what those red lines would be
01:28and what the political and economic cost would be for Russia if they did it
01:33well
01:33why don't we learn that lesson
01:35everybody
01:36every single country in the world
01:38has skin in the game
01:39when it comes to maintaining cross-strait peace
01:41i mean if Bloomberg is right
01:4310 percent of global GDP
01:46is not an impact
01:47anybody wants to withstand
01:48getting worse over time
01:50depending on where you are
01:52nobody can afford it
01:53so if we can't afford it
01:55we have to come together
01:56we have to define what our red lines are
01:58we have to establish what the sanctions
02:00economic political measures would be
02:02that we would take
02:02if those red lines get crossed
02:04because that's what deterrence really means
02:06but none of that's really possible
02:08unless we provide some substance to the status quo
02:11we have to take place
02:11we have to choose
02:13notice
02:15you can afford to
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