00:07Hello and welcome to 12 Minutes With.
00:10My guest today is Jacob Nagel, a former national security advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
00:17and a senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
00:22Jacob Nagel, thank you for being with us today.
00:24So you've been very critical of the Iran-U.S. deal to seize hostilities.
00:30Can you explain us why?
00:32What I'm criticizing is that it's really giving Iran exactly what they want and need now.
00:39Not in the size they want, but they are getting, as I call, cash payment
00:45because the states are open for them to export for the next 60 days.
00:52Believe me, it will be much more, their oil.
00:55So billions of dollars will start spilling into Iran.
01:01Of course, they're not making from these billions food, water and good things for their people.
01:07They're going to rebuild their missile program and support the terror, especially Hezbollah, Hamas and others.
01:15I think they're not going to run to rebuild their nuclear program while Trump is around.
01:22If it was 18 months to a bomb before, and I'm talking a bomb on a missile, now it's about
01:27three years.
01:28I had to wait two years that Trump is there, so it's five years.
01:32Iran is feeling, even though they are on their knees, very weak.
01:37They got it from the U.S. and Israel on all fronts.
01:42They are saying, we are the winners.
01:44Why?
01:44They took the only chip they had, the Strait of Tormoz.
01:49They closed it.
01:50And Trump, you know, listening to his closed allies, J.D. Vance, the Vice President,
01:59Witkoff and Kushner, who is not listening to Exet and Rubio and others, he decided to go.
02:06And again, it's legitimate for him, but he has to say so.
02:09He decided to prefer now the American interest, the economy.
02:14He wants to take down the price of oil.
02:18His allies in the Gulf, Saudis, Bahrain.
02:20Well, he had the midterm coming in November, sir, right?
02:23Exactly.
02:24He had the midterm coming in November.
02:26People are talking about his birthday, Mondial, Independence Day.
02:32Believe me, those are nonsense.
02:34Right.
02:34What he has in mind is that the people in the U.S., they don't know where is Iran, where
02:38is Israel,
02:39what is enriched uranium.
02:41They just know how much they are paying for a gallon of oil when they go to the gas stations.
02:46So you think this deal is even worse than what was negotiated in 2015?
02:51You're calling it again a deal.
02:52It's not a deal.
02:53Okay, the deal to cease hostilities is how I described it.
02:56It's a memorandum of understanding.
02:58Okay, so this MOU is worse than what was signed in 2015?
03:02Again, it can cause to a final agreement.
03:07Maybe there will be an agreement.
03:08I'm not sure because the Iranians are the best negotiators in the world and they will drag it
03:12for two and a half years until Trump is leaving office.
03:16But if there will be a deal, it looks like it's going to be worse than the one that Obama
03:22did in 2015.
03:23And Ram criticized very much.
03:25Why?
03:26Because I don't know what will be in the nuclear side.
03:30But remember that it's 10 years almost later.
03:32The Iranians are ahead in the technology.
03:35We took them back in the fissile material, especially in the weaponization.
03:39because the most critical scientists, they are not there anymore.
03:43So was the SWAR worth it?
03:45If its MOU is worse, was the SWAR worth it?
03:49If what we had in 2015 was okay?
03:52Again, no one.
03:53The deal of 2015 was horrible.
03:55Not good.
03:56Very bad.
03:57It was a direct path for a bomb to Iran.
04:02Now, I don't know what will happen in this memorandum of understanding
04:05because there is nothing, nothing about nuclear inside this memorandum of understanding.
04:11It's only opening rumors, giving Iran money, and that's it.
04:15Now, they are saying inside what they are going to talk about.
04:18I don't know what will be the result.
04:20So, now, Israel is not bound by this MOU.
04:24Israel signed a separate deal with Lebanon, brockered by the U.S.
04:29It's a deal.
04:31It's a ceasefire.
04:32Are you confident it's going to work, knowing that Hezbollah said he would not abide by it?
04:36And some members of Netanyahu's government, namely far-right ministers, said denounce the deal as null and void as well.
04:44So, what do you think is going to happen on the Lebanese front?
04:47Just put aside those in Israel that are denouncing from left and from right.
04:52I'm talking about the 80-90% of the Israeli population and Knesset members.
04:59This deal is good, and it's not excellent.
05:01Why?
05:02Why it's good?
05:03It says that Lebanon and Israel will decide about Lebanon and the sovereignty government of Lebanon.
05:10And it's written inside that Israel is not going to withdraw from Lebanon, from our positions there that are protecting
05:17our citizens, that we told them you can go back to your arms.
05:21But the size of this zone is under discussion.
05:24But yes, okay.
05:25Again, it's something that Israel is staying.
05:27We gave them two pilot stations, area, very close to what we call the yellow line, 10 kilometers from Israel,
05:35to see if they can clean it from Hezbollah.
05:38Now, while Hezbollah is not going to give up all of their weapons, this deal is not going to happen.
05:45But do you think it's going to work?
05:46It didn't work in 2024.
05:48I don't think that this deal will work in the place that the Lebanon sovereignty government will take out the
05:59weapons from Hezbollah.
06:00No way.
06:00Because they don't want to?
06:01Because they can't?
06:02No, because they can't.
06:04They very, very much want to.
06:06It's written inside the agreement.
06:08The disagreement will come into force only after all the groups that are holding weapons inside Lebanon are going to
06:17give it up.
06:18Do you ask me if this Lebanon, this weak Lebanon government, will be able to do it alone?
06:24No.
06:25The only way that Hezbollah will give up his weapons if their supporters, the IRGC, the Iran that are now
06:32getting money from the deal that we just,
06:33not the deal that we just talked about before, they will spill money for them.
06:38If there is no regime, crazy regime in Iran, the Hezbollah will give up.
06:43But then it's a catch-22.
06:45Then it's a catch-22 because Iran has said that the deal would never work if Sildes do not cease
06:52against Lebanon.
06:53So then what?
06:54Then there is no possible good ending.
06:58You are totally right that there is a catch-22.
07:00So there is a catch-22 as an American for the U.S.-Iran deal and the Lebanon-Israel deal.
07:08Now we are saying, still, U.S. is our best ally.
07:12We like what they are doing.
07:13We work together with them.
07:15At the end, they will understand who is the Iranians and they will go back to make sure that the
07:20work is finished.
07:22And now they decided to go on the economy way.
07:26It's okay.
07:26Their legitimacy.
07:28We are not obeyed by this, Mojo.
07:30We have the Lebanon.
07:31The most important thing about the Lebanon-Israel deal is that it's like putting a finger in the eyes of
07:38the Iranians,
07:39telling them, you did a deal with the U.S.
07:41Okay, Lebanon is not part of the deal.
07:44In Lebanon, we are the one that's calling the shots.
07:46Now you ask me how it's going to finish, I don't know.
07:50I don't know.
07:51You called it very, very correctly.
07:53It's a catch-22.
07:55And as always in our area, in our region, it's very interesting to be here.
08:00It's always something to do.
08:03Israel is strong.
08:05Israel is going to protect its citizens, especially in the north, but also in the south,
08:09like we did in Gaza, in Lebanon, and in Judea and Samaria and other places.
08:15In Iran, I hope the U.S. will understand that the Iranians are not telling them the truth
08:20and will go back to what we did before.
08:23Okay.
08:23Very quickly, sir.
08:25There's been a bit of a tension between Netanyahu and President Trump recently,
08:31and J.D. Vance actually also took stage and explained that, you know, Israel should stay
08:36in its lane.
08:37Do you think the relationship between the U.S. and Israel has been strained recently?
08:44Again, you're putting the right point.
08:47Israel and the U.S. are best allies.
08:50They are our best friends.
08:52They are supporting Israel in the U.N.
08:55Security Council.
08:57They are supporting us with many other things.
08:59But as I said before, President Trump now, for this point, I think he is doing a mistake,
09:05but it's legitimate from Israel, decided to prefer the American interest, meaning the
09:13economy, taking down the price of oil, being ready for the midterm because his people told
09:19him, otherwise, you're going to lose House and Senate.
09:22We like very much that the U.S. will be with us.
09:25Sometimes they have their own interest.
09:27OK, they'll come to their senses and decisions very soon.
09:32They know who is good and who is bad.
09:34No, I understand.
09:35I understand that Israel wants to be strong on its own.
09:38However, it's dependent on U.S. aid, military aid.
09:42No, no.
09:43Well, partially.
09:44I mean, I know it has a very strong defense, you know, industry, but it's but my point mostly
09:48is that how can it be a stable Middle East if the interests of the United States and Israel
09:54diverge so much right now?
09:55And again, you said before about the dependency.
09:58Israel is strong.
09:59Yes, we are getting an aid.
10:00I signed on the name of Israel, the last agreement of $38 billion, and I think there will be
10:05another one.
10:06But we are depending on the U.S. mainly on the main platforms, F-15, F-16, F-35.
10:13We're not going to build them alone.
10:15But the U.S. is selling those also to other countries.
10:17Are we going to do it with an American money, Israel money?
10:20It's totally different.
10:21I don't think the Americans are going to, you know, with all those things for us.
10:26All the other things, ammunition, tank shells, artillery, many main air to ground, we are doing
10:34it on our own.
10:35Israel is not dependent in the United States.
10:37We are independent.
10:38Last question, if I may.
10:40We talked about a possible strained relation between Israel and the U.S.
10:44Now, I'd like to turn very briefly to the EU.
10:46I mean, you're aware, I guess, of the diplomatic spot that happened between the EU foreign policy
10:54chief, Kaya Kalas, and Israel's foreign minister, Gideon Sark.
10:59Are you worried about the future of EU-Israel relationship?
11:03I'm sorry you are not going to like my answer.
11:05I was working very hard.
11:07When I was an Israeli national security advisor, every month I was taking 28 EU ambassadors
11:14in Israel and talking to them once a month.
11:15They didn't like it.
11:16I didn't like it.
11:17Unfortunately, we are asking the United States.
11:19The EU is not relevant.
11:21Now, about EU-Israel, at the end, I think that also the EU countries will come to their
11:27senses and will realize who are the good guys, who are the bad guys.
11:31See some of the countries inside Europe, and I don't want to say names.
11:35You go in the streets, there is terror inside Europe.
11:38So, I think, and there are some European countries that understood it and they took the law to
11:43their end.
11:44Some already lost the war against the immigrants.
11:48I think Europe is in a big problem that they have to solve.
11:51And their problem is not Israel.
11:53Thank you, sir.
11:54Thank you for your time.
11:55Thank you very much.
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