- 7 hours ago
八点最热报 | 昨天下午，默迪卡民调中心一份外泄，并在网上疯传的民调报告，为首相安华敲响了警钟。这项调查指出，首相安华在马来选民的满意度大幅落后于凯里、慕尤丁和阿末三苏里，而在非马来选民和总体满意度上，安华虽然还是各以59%和52%的满意度位居榜首，表面上看，安华还在赢，但......
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00:00Before watching the video, please remember that trending websites offer more content.
00:04A leaked poll from the Modica Research Center yesterday afternoon
00:07And the poll report was blocked online.
00:09This serves as a wake-up call for Prime Minister Anwar.
00:12This survey points out
00:13Anwar's satisfaction rating among Malay voters
00:16It is significantly behind Khairy Muhyiddin and Amosamsuri.
00:20In terms of overall satisfaction among non-Malay voters
00:24Although Anwar still holds 59% each
00:27And with a satisfaction rate of 52%, it ranks first.
00:30On the surface, Anwar is still winning.
00:32But this top spot is increasingly resembling a trophy.
00:35More like a dragon being tightened in its cage.
00:38Because the real reality is
00:40Anwar's previous non-Malay supporters
00:42Eighty percent of this myth has already been shattered.
00:45And he was trapped in the middle.
00:47The Chinese vote on the left is in the process of being negotiated.
00:49And on the right, his Malay votes were unbreakable.
00:51Yes, Anwar hasn't lost the top spot yet.
00:54But he was trapped at the top of the list.
00:56This is a national opinion poll.
00:59Public opinion polls on economic leadership and practical matters
01:02The event will be held between March 12th and April 9th.
01:05Initially, only a portion of the information circulated online regarding Malay voters.
01:09Subsequently, complete cross-ethnicity data was also leaked.
01:12And this was confirmed by the Modica Center for Polling.
01:15Polls involving overall approval ratings
01:19Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim still topped the list with an overall approval rating of 52%.
01:23Slightly lower than 55% in the same period last year.
01:29Former Health Minister Carey, however, held a 50% approval rating.
01:33Chasing after Anwar
01:34Deputy Prime Minister Mozashi maintained a solid lead with an overall approval rating of 24%.
01:39end
01:39Dissatisfaction rate as high as 61%
01:42What about non-Malay voters?
01:45Although Anwar still has an absolute advantage
01:47The satisfaction rate reached 59%.
01:49However, this is in stark contrast to Anwar's high approval rating of 80% at the beginning of his term.
01:54It has clearly declined.
01:56And ranked after Anwar
01:57Kerry and Rafael's support among non-Malay groups
02:01They were 31% and 29% respectively.
02:04Finally, let's look at the satisfaction level of Malay voters.
02:07Khairy Jamaluddin, who recently rejoined UMNO, is ranked first in popularity.
02:12His satisfaction rate was as high as 62%.
02:15Perikatan Nasional (PN) Chairman Muhyiddin Yassin 49%
02:17And the party's vice president, Amoshansuri, 48%.
02:21They ranked second and third respectively.
02:23Anwar's satisfaction rate within the Malay community
02:26They were all ranked after them, only 45%.
02:33A leaked poll
02:35Exposing Prime Minister Anwar's political reality directly to the light of day
02:39He also ranked first in overall satisfaction and non-Malay satisfaction.
02:43However, this first place is no longer as secure as it once was.
02:46Especially among non-Malay voters
02:49Anwar's satisfaction rate is still high, even though it is still within the organization.
02:51There is still 59%.
02:53However, compared to the 2022 election and the six-week election period, more than 80% of the pressure was...
02:59Inverse support
03:00The current numbers are clearly a stark contrast.
03:04It was precisely by learning from Pan Yongxiang to directly point out the truth
03:06This poll is important for Anwar and his government.
03:09It is a poll fraught with hidden concerns.
03:12Actually, the results of this poll
03:14This poll is fraught with uncertainty for the Anwar government.
03:18In non-Malay communities
03:21Anwa's satisfaction rate is 59%.
03:24However, based on our past experience in the 2022 election...
03:28The six-week election in 2023
03:31Chinese support for the Western Alliance has reached its peak or even surpassed its previous level.
03:37But after Anwar took office
03:40He should theoretically have more administrative resources.
03:43There is even more power to drive policy.
03:46Conversely, his satisfaction rate among non-Malays was only 59%.
03:51In other words, it fell below 60%.
03:54Western Union's most stable vote base
03:56Now it's loosening
03:57The most sensitive point is
03:59This is not a collapse of support during the period when he was in opposition.
04:02Rather, it was a decline after taking power.
04:04The state apparatus in theory
04:07Policy Resources
04:07Administrative power should be consolidated and supported.
04:10However, the reality is that non-Malay voters...
04:13Satisfaction with Anwar has fallen below 60%.
04:15But the problem isn't just on this side.
04:18Huang Jinfa, a political scientist at Shuangwei University, pointed out
04:20If we look at it over a longer time axis
04:22Anwar's satisfaction ratings among Malays and non-Malays
04:26In fact, two opposing forces are pulling at the same time.
04:30Three years ago
04:31Anwar's popularity among non-Malays might be higher than it is today.
04:34So it fell.
04:35Its disappearance indicates that some constituencies...
04:37Its votes may not come out.
04:39But looking at it from another perspective
04:41Look back at when the Western Alliance was in the 15th General Election
04:46At the time, the general interpretation was that it was the Western Alliance.
04:49Malay approval ratings were lower than they are today.
04:52So if we want to interpret it more completely today...
04:55It is over the past three years that Anwar has successfully garnered some support from Malays.
05:00However, it is not enough to surpass the two leaders of the National League.
05:05This includes Eunhyuk and Dr. Samsuri.
05:08Anwar has made progress in three years.
05:12But a price was paid.
05:13Anwar strives to win Malay votes
05:15I got some Malay votes
05:17But the Malay votes he received
05:19Not enough to make him surpass us
05:22This is completely unsurprising.
05:24He also left a non-Malay vote.
05:27Those non-Malay votes
05:29It's very likely they'll be together.
05:31Or go lose
05:32The past three years
05:33Anwar has been working to win Malay votes.
05:35There has indeed been a little progress.
05:38But the problem is
05:39Zeng Fuhai is not enough to surpass the National Alliance
05:41And the originally stable non-Malay support
05:44But it started to loosen
05:45This is precisely Anwar's most awkward predicament.
05:48Not enough Malaysian votes yet
05:50However, non-Malay votes were lost first.
05:53More importantly
05:54This is not just Anwar's problem.
05:56It is the most intractable fate of Malaysian politics.
05:59The Malay vote determines who can secure a stable position.
06:02Therefore, any government must align itself with the Malay community.
06:06But with each step closer
06:08This could potentially make existing non-Malay supporters feel...
06:11You've changed.
06:12Two reasons
06:13One reason is that Malays are not only the majority of the population.
06:16Its political weight
06:18Because the electoral districts were drawn unfairly.
06:20Therefore, it is larger
06:21Then you want to govern
06:22You have no way to say
06:23Losing Malay votes
06:25second
06:25If your Malaysian vote is lost
06:27Your regime can then lose its legitimacy.
06:30It can be accessed
06:31For example, large-scale demonstrations
06:33Through this non-cooperation of the monarch and civil servants
06:38Makes everything difficult for you
06:40Then you might experience internal changes.
06:43Therefore, because of this situation
06:45Diverse alliances
06:46It has no choice but to work hard to win the votes of the Malays.
06:51But conversely
06:52When you do this
06:53Your kung fu skills are not very good.
06:56You will make your original supporters feel that
06:59I am devoted to the bright moon
07:02Unable to bear the bright moon's advances
07:04He will think you are a revivalist.
07:06That would cause him to become dissatisfied.
07:08Some people think that
07:09Then I won't vote for you.
07:10That's not just Anwar's fate.
07:13This is actually also Malaysia
07:16The fate of minority groups and liberal voters
07:19You have no way to get rid of it.
07:21Pan Yongqiang further pointed out
07:22This poll also supports Anwar
07:24This left behind an even more unsettling signal.
07:27That is, non-Malay voters
07:29It's not that there are no choices.
07:30Anwar is not the only option.
07:33Then we see
07:34Among non-Malay groups
07:37Kairi has a 31% satisfaction rate.
07:40And this Kairi satisfaction rate
07:41It is more than in the past few years
07:43The party chairman who advocates for unification by force is of high rank.
07:45Then the same Rafi Z
07:47During this investigation
07:48He also had a satisfaction rate of nearly 30%.
07:51Among non-Malay groups
07:53When this poll was conducted...
07:57It's March or April.
07:58Rafi Z has not yet officially announced any blocking.
08:01In other words, among non-Malay groups
08:04They will not completely resist
08:06Leaders other than Anwar
08:08Including my Kairi for reunification by force
08:10And if we go back
08:11The aura of Kairi or Rafi Z
08:15There is potential for further increases.
08:16Then the gap between him and Anwar might shorten rapidly.
08:19Therefore, among non-Malay groups
08:21They did not completely resist
08:24Alternative candidates besides Anwar
08:26Khairy Rafizi among non-Malay voters
08:29There is still about 30% support.
08:32This illustrates a reality.
08:33Non-Malay voters did not vote for Anwar
08:35Treat it as the only answer
08:37If these figures gain influence in the future...
08:40The political structure may be reshaped.
08:42And the most brutal part of this poll
08:45It's not about Anwar's satisfaction level rising or falling.
08:48Instead, he was caught between two directions.
08:52Go to Malaya
08:53He will lose the support of his original non-Malays.
08:56Hold on to existing support
08:58It will be difficult to break through the glass ceiling in Malay politics.
09:01Anwar still tops the polls.
09:04But this top spot
09:06I'm getting more and more uncomfortable standing here.
09:12A poll traces Anwar's political trajectory over the past three years.
09:16It's been compressed into a reality that's hard to avoid.
09:18Anwar is today.
09:20He is still at the top of the list
09:21But this top spot
09:22It's already a mountain peak that's getting narrower and narrower.
09:26The so-called price of gravitating towards Malay voters
09:29It is also becoming apparent in each and every piece of data.
09:31Malaysian votes have indeed recovered slightly.
09:34However, the extent is quite limited.
09:36More obviously at the other end
09:38Non-Malay supporters are withdrawing.
09:41It has fallen from its previous peak to 59%.
09:43No longer a monolithic entity
09:45Instead, the foundation is beginning to loosen.
09:47Thus, Anwar's political position
09:49Slowly from a symbol of hope
09:51Sliding into an even more awkward situation
09:54Dilemma
09:54At first, neither end was reached.
09:56Want to take another step closer to Malay society
09:59This will accelerate the alienation of non-Malay voters.
10:01Want to retain existing support
10:03It is also difficult to break through the glass ceiling of Malay politics.
10:06This is what is known as the "three-year squeeze".
10:09On the surface, Anwar still ranks first in overall satisfaction.
10:1352% is still number one
10:15However, the situation has already begun to turn unfavorable.
10:18And that's precisely the problem.
10:20The first place position has not been taken away.
10:22But it is losing its value.
10:25Anwar is still winning.
10:27Still winning while losing?
10:29Even more cruel is
10:31This predicament doesn't just belong to Anwar alone.
10:33As Huang Jifa said
10:35This seems to be a shared fate for ethnic minorities and liberal voters in Malaysia.
10:40You have no way to get rid of this structure.
10:42You can only find the least costly path within this.
10:47But the question is, has Anwar been found?
10:50The poll results seem to indicate a silence.
10:54not yet