- 8 hours ago
Former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has welcomed the US-Iran peace deal, calling it ‘very positive’. He also lauded PM Modi for his constructive role in the West Asia conflict while protecting India’s economic and energy security. A big endorsement for diplomacy!
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00:00I'll of course begin by asking you on the West Asia developments. There's a deal between US and Iran. President
00:06Trump has announced that the discussion, the agreement is closed and there would be reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
00:13More than after 100 days of the war, so how do you see this development?
00:19I welcome it. I think it's very positive and we'll have to wait and see it come into implementation. There've
00:25been a number of occasions where there's been announcements of deals of this nature and this does seem to be
00:32the most promising. So we hope that is able to stick and we can see the opening up of the
00:40Strait of Hormuz and move to greater stability than what we've seen certainly over the last 100 days.
00:46But I think we need to be aware that this will take some time to work through. You can't just
00:52switch these things straight back on. And I'm sure there will continue to be surprises along the way. That's certainly
00:59been the nature of things up until now. But obviously it's a breakthrough that's welcome that everybody has been hoping
01:05can be achieved.
01:06We don't know all the details of what this arrangement is at this point, or at least not that I've
01:11seen. And I hope very much that it's been able to address the core issue, which has been Iran's insistence
01:17on having a nuclear weapons program, which is unacceptable.
01:23Mr Morrison, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is being viewed as one of the most significant outcomes of
01:28the negotiations. We know that it was opened before the war. How critical is this development for global energy security
01:35and Indo-Pacific economies such as Australia and India?
01:38Well, it has an obvious impact, I think. And whether it's for India or whether it's for Australia or Southeast
01:44Asia or even North Asia, I think they're the areas that have been most affected by this.
01:49The United States has an energy independence, which somewhat quarantined it from the impacts of this.
01:56That said, there were still inflationary impacts on energy prices in the United States, which was pushing up inflation.
02:03But those impacts were far more keenly felt in our part of the world, in the Indo-Pacific.
02:09So this is obviously a welcome development. But I think as much as the Strait of Hormuz being opened is
02:15welcomed in the short term,
02:17I think what this has highlighted is the risk to such blockages in the future and the need to have
02:23a set of stability arrangements which prevent that from happening again.
02:27But in addition to that, I think there needs to be greater focus on what the resilience investment is now
02:34required right across,
02:36whether it's the Indian Ocean maritime domain or elsewhere, to ensure that if there are similar shocks like this in
02:42the future,
02:42then they are more readily worked around.
02:46Mr. Morrison, President Trump has reportedly criticised Israeli Prime Minister as a very difficult guy after yesterday's Israeli strikes in
02:55Beirut happened.
02:56Does this signal growing tension between Washington and Jerusalem over how to handle the crisis?
03:02And could such differences undermine prospects for a broader regional settlement?
03:07I don't think there's any real change here.
03:09I mean, Israel has its interests and Israel has been fired upon by Hezbollah.
03:14And it's understandable that Israel would reply in kind.
03:19And I'm sure while it might be frustrating for the United States, I'm sure that they understand that ultimately, of
03:26course,
03:27that's a relationship that is big enough to be able to, I think, absorb these differences from time to time.
03:34And my hope is that Hezbollah can be removed.
03:39My hope is that Hamas can be removed.
03:41I think we need to remind ourselves that the very reason we have just been through what we have all
03:46just been through
03:47is because on October 7 in 2023, Hamas, a proxy of Iran, attacked Israel in the most despicable way imaginable.
03:58And so that cancer remains in the region and it needs to be eradicated.
04:05So Iran says the memorandum of understanding is only the beginning and that the final agreement will be negotiated during
04:12the 60-day ceasefire,
04:14while simultaneously retraiting its deep mistrust of Washington.
04:19Can a lasting agreement be reached when both sides appear to view the current deal as a temporary framework rather
04:25than a final settlement?
04:28This is the way these things are done and it carries some uncertainties in terms of how it progresses to
04:34a final arrangement,
04:35but it's certainly better than where we've been and hopefully that will bring some near-term stability.
04:42But I think while you may remark about how Iran feels about the United States,
04:48I mean, quite frankly, Iran is the most disreputable, untrustworthy regime on the planet.
04:56And I think there will always be grave concerns about whether Iran would ever honour any deal.
05:02I mean, this is a country that has been calling for the destruction of Israel and death to America for
05:0849 years.
05:09So I think the real test of trust here is on Iran.
05:14So Prime Minister Modi has consistently called for dialogue and diplomacy and restraint amid the conflicts,
05:21also given the fact that there are millions of workers in the Gulf and also in West Asia.
05:27How do you see India's approach?
05:29It has been, how do you look at India's approach in the entire conflict so far?
05:33Well, as always, I think Prime Minister Modi has been very constructive.
05:39I think he's been very patient and I think he's played a positive role.
05:44At the same time, the Prime Minister has had to manage the very real risks to India's own economic security
05:51and its own fuel reserves and fuel supply for which it has been dependent upon the Gulf.
05:56So he's had to manage issues, very serious issues domestically, as well as stepping up
06:02and I think providing a constructive role internationally.
06:06And I think that Prime Minister Modi should receive a great deal of credit for that.
06:10But ultimately, this is a deal that has been brought about by the persistence of the US President
06:16and his negotiators.
06:21And I commend President Trump on having achieved this.
06:24So the recent crisis exposed our regional conflict can have immediate consequences for global energy prices.
06:32Does this reinforce the need for countries like Australia and India to diversify their energy supply chains?
06:39Yes, this has been true for a long time.
06:43It's the same in terms of how China has sought to impose itself on the Indo-Pacific and threaten the
06:49region.
06:50And, of course, we need to diversify our supply chains because of those types of threats.
06:56I mean, the world has moved into a phase where supply chains are weaponised.
07:01And as a result, you need diversification and you need resilience of flows.
07:06And that resilience of flows just doesn't apply to oil and fuel and gas and fertiliser,
07:16which were most impacted by the shutdown of the Strait of Amoz.
07:20But it also relates to data and submarine cables and space and any number of other channels
07:26through which important flows occur, which support our economies.
07:29And I think what all this boils down to is the need for investments in resilience infrastructure.
07:37And I think India and Sri Lanka, for that matter, sit at a very key point on the map
07:46in terms of playing a role in boosting that resilience and that security of supply.
07:52So I think India's independence, but it's sort of open market economy, pragmatic approach,
07:59lends itself very well, I think, to be a key player in boosting the resilience of global supply chains.
08:07Mr Morrison, how concerned should the world be that any collapse of the ceasefire or negotiation
08:12could once again threaten the flow of oil through the state of Amoz,
08:16through which a significant share of global crude exports passes?
08:22I think it's obviously a risk that this could collapse over the term of this arrangement based on history
08:32and based on the fact that, you know, you can never trust the Iranians to honour any promise they ever
08:37give.
08:38They're an apocalyptic regime that is not driven by the same rational considerations
08:43that freedom-loving open market economies are.
08:47And so I think the United States has done well to bring them to this point.
08:51But holding them at that point, I think, will continue to be a challenge.
08:54But I'm optimistic that the President will be able to achieve that.
08:59Mr Morrison, now I'll ask, will this India-Australia relationship,
09:03since our Prime Minister is expected to travel to Australia next month,
09:08what should be the top priorities for both governments to take the relationship to the next level?
09:13And since when you were Prime Minister in the Australia relationship underwent a major transformation,
09:19do you believe the relationship has now reached a point where it can be described as one of Australia's most
09:25important strategic partnerships?
09:28Well, it is and it has been now for some time since Prime Minister Imadi and I were able to
09:33reach agreement
09:34on the comprehensive strategic partnership and the many things that flowed from that,
09:37including the ECTA, the Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement,
09:41which was the first between our two countries.
09:43And that relationship has laid the platform for what we're now experiencing.
09:48We hit an all-time high in the relationship between India and Australia,
09:52while I shared the role of Prime Minister with Prime Minister Modi in terms of our relationship.
10:00And I'm pleased to say it has remained in that space.
10:03And I think a lot of good work is being done.
10:05I welcome the fact that Prime Minister Modi will soon be coming to Australia again.
10:08He'll get his usual rock star heroes welcome here in Australia.
10:12He's incredibly popular amongst the diaspora.
10:14I think that's been one of the real standout features of Prime Minister Modi's leadership of India,
10:19is that he has really reached out to the diaspora.
10:23And while they have chosen another place to call home,
10:27they remain connected, I think, to their ancestral home in India in a way
10:32that Prime Minister Modi has been able to really highlight for them.
10:36And I think that's been positive.
10:37So I'm looking forward to him coming.
10:39I think it's great that he is.
10:40We just continue to build on that platform, whether it's on trade,
10:44whether it's security, defence, the challenges around AI,
10:48how our economies can work together on industrialisation,
10:52the Indo-Pacific, the Quad leaders' dialogue,
10:55and the importance of investments in infrastructure,
10:58maritime domain surveillance,
11:00which was a key outcome of the recent foreign ministers' meeting in New Delhi
11:05as part of the Quad.
11:06So there's no shortage of areas for us to progress.
11:09And I think India and Australia share a very unique perspective
11:13on the Indo-Pacific and the rest of the world.
11:16And I look forward to that continuing being a positive force for our region.
11:21Mr Morrison, you have worked closely with Prime Minister Modi
11:24and during a pivotal period in bilateral relationship,
11:28what in your view has been the biggest contribution to India-Australia ties?
11:34Well, I just mentioned many of the things we're able to achieve,
11:37but I think it has been the insight of Prime Minister Modi.
11:42I mean, yes, we were able, when I was Prime Minister,
11:45to achieve an historic agreement and take our relationship to a new level,
11:48and that has continued.
11:49And the common dominator there has been Prime Minister Modi.
11:53This remains a high priority for him.
11:55And I'm grateful for that.
11:58I'm very pleased that he has maintained that keen focus.
12:02I mean, there are so many things for him to be engaged in.
12:06And the fact that he's put a priority on that Australia relationship,
12:08I think, means a great deal to us.
12:11And I think it enables us to do things together in the Indo-Pacific,
12:16to engage with our friends in Japan, the United States, Singapore, Philippines,
12:20Thailand, other parts of the Indo-Pacific, ASEAN more broadly.
12:24I mean, the Indo-Pacific is the centre of the world now.
12:27And I think the Australia-India partnership plays a key role
12:31in how the Indo-Pacific progresses from this point,
12:35with many other partners that I've said.
12:37So it's been his vision, I'd say, around the relationship with Australia.
12:42He's a vision for the Indo-Pacific and particularly the Quad
12:45and being a founding member along with myself and the other leaders at that time.
12:51And I continue to say, it's been his leadership of the Global South.
12:56He's so conscious of the economic inclusion challenges in his own country
13:01that he can see the same challenges that other leaders face
13:04in other developing economies.
13:06And I think India, under Prime Minister Modi's leadership,
13:09is providing a positive economic model for them to follow,
13:12an alternative to the communist, illiberal, dictatorship model
13:19that seems so common in many other parts of the world.
13:23Prime Minister Modi is providing the positive alternative,
13:27the democracy alternative, the free markets alternative.
13:31And I think this is a positive thing, which will be great for India
13:34and I think it'll be great for the Global South if they are
13:37to follow his lead.
14:09I attended quite a few G7s at the invitation of the host,
14:13including in France as well as in the UK.
14:17And I appreciated the opportunity to provide input
14:21into all of those forums and was able to do so
14:24with Prime Minister Modi as well.
14:26I don't think there's a need to expand the G7, to be honest.
14:30I think the G7 is what it is and it should continue doing
14:33what it's doing.
14:34But I do, I've always been a keen fan of a G7 plus dialogue,
14:39which in the past has included Australia, India, South Korea,
14:44and South Africa on occasion.
14:48Whether that fits in the same way, I'm not so sure.
14:50But I think certainly India, Australia, and South Korea are very positive additions
14:57to that group, particularly to focus on issues in the Indo-Pacific.
15:02Japan is already there, of course, as a member of the G7.
15:04And because of the importance of the Indo-Pacific,
15:07I think it's critical that they do have a track
15:10that understands how they engage to issues in our region,
15:15not just from an economic point of view,
15:18but from a security point of view,
15:19from a resilience infrastructure point of view,
15:23and from key issues like artificial intelligence and so on,
15:28and how they're being managed.
15:29Because the unique thing about the Indo-Pacific,
15:31unlike where most of these economies that are part of the G7 come from,
15:36they are a mix of both developed and developing economies.
15:41And I think when you come to that question with that perspective,
15:45where you're trying to look for solutions that work
15:47in both types of economies,
15:49then that adds a whole new dimension to the discussion.
15:51Otherwise, it's just basically a discussion
15:54between developed economies.
15:55And, you know, if you want to address particularly some global issues,
15:58well, you've got to understand how it's impacting in the developing world.
16:02Mr. Morrison, President Trump during his second term
16:05has renewed his focus on tariffs and trade negotiations.
16:08How do you assess the impact of these policies
16:11on Indo-Pacific economies, including India and Australia?
16:14It certainly had its challenges.
16:16There's no doubt about that.
16:18And the US has been working to a reset on many things,
16:21and that includes global trade.
16:23Now, I think you've got to start from the point that global trade
16:26has not been particularly balanced and particularly fair
16:28for quite a long time.
16:29So to pretend it was in some sort of nirvanic state
16:33prior to what President Trump embarked on
16:35would be a bit of a nonsense.
16:38And, you know, they have sought to try and rebalance that.
16:42Now, that has meant some challenging things for countries
16:45such as India and right throughout the Indo-Pacific,
16:48Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia,
16:51as well as developed countries up in Japan and South Korea.
16:55I think the Indo-Pacific countries, though,
16:57have responded quite pragmatically.
17:00And I think that's to their credit
17:01and have sought to work with the US.
17:04And who knows what these things will look like
17:0610 years from now, five years from now.
17:08But certainly under this administration,
17:09there is a need to come to a new set of arrangements.
17:12And particularly when the sort of the third country sourcing
17:16has, I think, been not a positive influence,
17:19where China in particular has been using other countries
17:23as a backdoor to gain access to developed country markets.
17:27And the US has certainly called that out.
17:30And in addition to that, Europe is discovering this as well,
17:33particularly in their auto sector.
17:35Whereas once upon a time, European countries were very excited
17:39about how they were going to engage, particularly with China.
17:42And what they've learned is that can quickly turn
17:45into a one-sided deal.
17:47And this is where I think India has a, I think,
17:49a big opportunity, a really big opportunity,
17:52because India does not engage in the sort of the export-dominated
18:01output-generating economy that China does,
18:04which basically sees cheap goods dumped
18:07into developed country markets and undercuts their potential
18:11to be able to maintain their own manufacturing industrial sector.
18:16Now, India is also at risk of that,
18:17as are many developing countries.
18:19And I think it's a very negative practice which China pursues.
18:23And so India, I think, has a real opportunity, I think,
18:27to take up the capacity and the demand that's there
18:33from like-minded countries in Europe and North America
18:36and Australia to be a real partner of choice.
18:40Mr Morrison, I would also like to have your comment
18:44on the fact that three Indian seafarers,
18:46they lost their life in the recent attack
18:48on a commercial vessel.
18:49And many in India feel the United States
18:52has not adequately acknowledged or expressed regret
18:55over the incident.
18:56Do you believe Washington should have responded differently
18:59to incidents like these risk creating strains
19:02and otherwise as strong as strategic partnerships,
19:05particularly at a time when countries like India,
19:07Australia and United States are deepening cooperation
19:09through the court?
19:11Well, I won't comment specifically on that.
19:13But what I will say is that it's important that the United States
19:17and India has a very close relationship and where there are issues
19:23that need to be raised, they can be raised in a friendly way,
19:26but also in a very direct way.
19:29Recently, the president beamed into what was a fairly big event
19:33at the US embassy there in New Delhi.
19:36I was in New Delhi not long after that.
19:39And, you know, there was a very strong reception.
19:41So, look, I think the relationship between Prime Minister Modi
19:45and President Trump is a resilient one.
19:48I think it's a candid one.
19:50And from the point of view of Prime Minister Modi,
19:52it's a strong one.
19:53One thing I always noticed about Prime Minister Modi,
19:56he was never shy about putting forward what his view was
19:59in a respectful way.
20:01And he had a very keen sense of the primacy of India's national interest.
20:05And anyone he dealt with, I certainly got the impression,
20:08I certainly understood it, that, you know,
20:11he had his own national interests that he had to pursue
20:14and he had to give them primacy just like any other leader would
20:18with their own country.
20:19So I'm quite certain that Prime Minister Modi is able to address those
20:23and many other issues within the relationship that he has
20:26with the president.
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