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Dispatches - Season Episode 5 - Will My Summer Holiday Be Cancelled
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00:03Tonight on Dispatches, we ask, will your holiday be cancelled this summer?
00:08You work hard all year to pay for your holiday and you really do worry that should it all fall
00:13through, you'll be devastated really.
00:15I think the industry will be worried. They'll be worried because it's uncertain as to how long this will carry
00:20on for.
00:21With a surge in jet fuel prices and thousands of flights cancelled, will you be able to get to your
00:27destination?
00:27I miss my mum every day. You know, I wish I could hug her.
00:32You missed your mum's 80th birthday?
00:34Yeah, that still hurts when you say that.
00:36This has been categorically the single greatest crisis for global aviation since the pandemic.
00:44Should you book or hold off? And what should you look out for if you do splash the cash on
00:49a trip abroad?
00:51If your airline is not adhering to those obligations and doing what is expected of them,
00:56then you need to remind them of those obligations.
01:00We exclusively reveal destinations with the steepest drop in flight price and the biggest winners from the foreign holiday turmoil.
01:09All this flight chaos.
01:10Yep.
01:11Kind of good news?
01:12Great news. Busy. Sold out. We were sold out for May half term.
01:17So, is it just as safe a bet to take the plunge on a holiday in the UK?
01:22Ah! Wow, this order is cold!
01:26This year, we just thought with flights being cancelled, the cost of flights is something that really puts us off.
01:33We're going to try and guide you through this summer's holiday chaos.
01:37If it were me, this summer, booking a holiday, I would book a packet holiday.
01:42If you see one that's attractive, I would go ahead and lock that in.
01:58I'm Kate Quilton, and I'm off on holiday for some sun, sea and sangria.
02:10Don't forget my passport!
02:29I'm just one of tens of millions of Brits who look forward all year to jetting off for some fun
02:34in the sun.
02:38It's early on a Tuesday morning, and I'm at Stansted Airport, one of the UK's biggest airports for holidays.
02:46Over 30 million passengers passed through this airport last year.
02:50So, I'm off to sunny Spain while I still can.
02:56A holiday purchase is the biggest purchase of the year most people make.
03:02It seems to be the one thing people aren't prepared to miss.
03:05If they can stick to that sort of traditional two-week summer holiday, then it is a real UK tradition.
03:13I'm on a three-hour flight to Managa, and this flight is pretty much fully booked,
03:19full of people who are wanting to catch a little bit of mid-May sunshine.
03:24Last year, 19 million Britons headed to Spain, our numero uno destination.
03:31In fact, each year Brits take more than 19 million trips abroad,
03:36and most of these, over 60%, are foreign holidays.
03:40Or at least that's what used to happen.
03:43Back in February, everything got put on hold.
03:48Whoa! Whoa! Whoa!
03:52Whoa!
03:52We've been hit. We've been hit.
03:55Oh, my God, there's people outside.
03:58The US said the Iran war was intended to be a short, sharp shock.
04:03We are going to destroy their missiles and raise their missile industry to the ground.
04:09It will be totally, again, obliterated.
04:14But that's not the way it's turned out.
04:18Iran attacked neighbouring countries, including their oil refineries
04:24and blocked tankers travelling through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
04:31Air travel was thrown into turmoil.
04:34Holidays were being cancelled everywhere.
04:36Landing in London relieved passengers aboard one of the very limited number of flights from Dubai that operated today.
04:43We were very nervous about how we were going to get back, whether it was going to be weeks.
04:48We sat on the plane for two hours and they told us to get off.
04:51They said it wasn't safe to fly because of the missiles.
04:53So we all thought we were going to be stranded.
04:55We tried to get a fight back in, there was no fight, so we just processed when we could get,
04:59just to get back on English soil.
05:02Hundreds of thousands of passengers suddenly finding themselves in a situation where the skies above them had closed.
05:09The airlines were forced to suspend all operations until further notice.
05:13The government has told people to stay home, remain indoors.
05:16We saw the likes of Dubai International, the busiest in the world, repeatedly hit and suffering missile and drone strikes.
05:23Even here in Dubai, this war has come and it's disrupted life as we know it.
05:29The impact was sudden and dramatic.
05:32Nearly 10,000 flights cancelled across the Middle East in the first couple of days.
05:43Caught up in the turmoil were people like Pat.
05:46She has terminal lung disease and had her 80th birthday celebrations spoilt.
05:52Just about to get some breakfast.
05:56Pat's son Paul lives in Thailand and in March he was due to fly back to visit his mum for
06:01her birthday party.
06:05But because of the war, and the disruption to flights, he never made the celebrations.
06:12Morning sweetheart.
06:14Morning you Kate.
06:16Hi Paul, my name's Kate.
06:18Hi Kate, you're not quite in my screen.
06:22Oh there you are.
06:23For now, they have to make do with chats over the internet.
06:28You missed your mum's 80th birthday.
06:30Yeah, that still hurts when you say that.
06:33What do you usually pay for a flight to the UK from Thailand?
06:38Two days before the war started, I looked about reserving a flight with a new airways, which was a direct
06:45flight.
06:46One way with just £400.
06:48But it all went pear-shaped.
06:51That same flight, £400, three days later was £1,500 one way.
06:57No.
06:57It just got silly and silly, you know, it was going up and up.
07:01I'm on a group here for expats and everybody was saying the same, can't go home this time, silly prices.
07:09I'm on a budget here, you know, couldn't afford that cost.
07:14Yeah.
07:14So, I was really upset, virtually crying when I couldn't get to mum's 80th.
07:19Aww.
07:20Me too.
07:21Gosh, and Pat, for you too.
07:23Yeah, I had my other two sons there, which is brilliant.
07:28But, you know, that one link was missing.
07:30And he did a video call, but it wasn't quite the same as having all my three boys together.
07:36I don't know how long I've got.
07:37And it could have been the last time for me to have all my boys together.
07:49Since Pat's birthday in March, there's been a ceasefire in the Gulf and the skies are open again.
07:56So, why is flying still so difficult?
08:02Well, the problem now is jet fuel.
08:06One thing we've all noticed since the start of the Iran war is the price of filling up rising considerably
08:13over the last couple of months.
08:14But it's not just at the petrol pump where prices are rising.
08:19For any of us thinking of holidaying abroad, it's what's put into planes, not cars, we need to worry about.
08:29Around 75% of the jet fuel imported by the UK and Europe comes from the Gulf region.
08:38Since the war and the blockade of the strait, airlines have had to source their fuel elsewhere.
08:43It's an urgent hunt as Britain has about 30 days fuel in reserve.
08:48And it's all meant that the price has shot up.
08:53Jet fuel price spiked higher with a sharp line trajectory that we haven't seen in recent history.
08:59A raging high jet fuel price with no end in sight in terms of how far it was willing to
09:04climb.
09:05A more pressing issue is the guarantee of supply.
09:08Nothing is flowing out of the Gulf and making its way to markets like the UK.
09:15The news of rising costs and concerns about the supply of jet fuel are worrying holidaymakers.
09:24Consumers are understandably really spooked by the headlines that they've seen.
09:28They easily become really, really worried when they see headlines like,
09:32I'm really sorry, we may not have fuel to get you out there or get you home.
09:46So, for anyone thinking of foreign travel this summer, how do you make sure you can still get away?
09:57What better way for me to investigate than to set up my own travel agency?
10:02Quilt and Travel has a ring to it.
10:05And get top tips from the experts.
10:14First up, the main worry for everyone is the potential effect of high fuel prices on the cost of flights.
10:21Reduced supply has led to soaring prices.
10:25The day before the war began, a barrel of jet fuel cost $99.
10:30A week later, it increased to $160 a barrel.
10:35By the beginning of April, it had more than doubled in price.
10:38And since then, it has slowly come down.
10:41And today, the price of jet fuel is still over 50% more expensive than it was before the war
10:49began.
10:52That means the cost of jet fuel for my little trip to the Costa del Sol would cost a lot
10:57more at those prices.
10:59If we look at a London Stansted to Malaga flight on a 737, the most commonly used aircraft type globally,
11:07that flight will require around 9,000 litres of fuel.
11:119,000 litres of fuel at last year's prices was around US$4,900 for the airline.
11:20This has been above US$10,000.
11:26What does this mean for the cost of flights and holidays?
11:31Trail Finders is a leading UK travel agency, a bit larger and more professional than my setup.
11:37But this year, travellers are worried that rising fuel prices and possible fuel surcharges might make a holiday completely unaffordable.
11:46In terms of your Christmas trip, do let me know how you get on. Have a flick through and let
11:50us know what you're thinking.
11:50No, that'll be great.
11:51With all the oil prices possibly going up and all of that, there is a concern that I'm not going
11:57to be able to go on travel.
11:58We're worried about flight cancellations, fuel charges, things being cancelled at the last minute.
12:05I originally wasn't going to book anything over summer because I wasn't sure if there was going to be cancelled
12:09flights
12:09and people talked about that. But then I thought, well, sometimes you've just got to take a punt in life.
12:16One of the added costs travellers could face is a fuel surcharge.
12:21It's an added fee put on the cost of flights by airlines to offset the extra they're paying for jet
12:26fuel.
12:28Trail Finders, along with a number of other travel companies, have committed not to surcharge.
12:33We've never surcharged and it's written into our terms and conditions that we won't surcharge.
12:37So that gives clients a degree of comfort.
12:40Other travel companies pledging not to add surcharges this summer are Jet 2, 2E and EasyJet.
12:49But a host of airlines including Virgin Atlantic, Emirates and Qantas have announced new surcharges since the conflict started.
13:02So if your holiday plans get disrupted, maybe your flight is cancelled or changed or you get asked to pay
13:10a fuel surcharge, what are your rights?
13:13And in terms of your rights, are you better protected if you book a package holiday or flights only?
13:20UK and EU airlines cannot surcharge you once you've booked.
13:25So if you've booked your flight, you've paid a certain price, they can't come back and say,
13:28listen, it's costing us a little bit more money to fly you, we'd like some more money from you.
13:32That's not possible.
13:34But be aware that those assurances don't apply if you've booked a package holiday.
13:40What is possible is holiday operators.
13:43So with a package holiday, holiday operators can charge you up to 8% for reasons such as fuel costs
13:50going up for them.
13:51If that surcharge is levied, then you will be contacted by your tour operator to be made aware of that.
13:58And then you'll be informed of your options as to whether you accept that deal or whether you want to
14:03make alternative arrangements.
14:06Coming up, what should you do if your airline suddenly changes your flight time and airport?
14:12You can either accept that or you can claim a refund.
14:16If your airline is not adhering to those obligations and doing what is expected of them, then you need to
14:22remind them of those obligations.
14:25And we exclusively reveal the destinations with the biggest flight price drops.
14:39We're looking at whether the conflict with Iran will ruin our plans for a summer holiday.
14:45A raging high jet fuel price with no end in sight in terms of how far it was willing to
14:50climb.
14:56The rising price of jet fuel has led some European airlines to take drastic action.
15:02Tens of thousands of flights have been cancelled to reduce costs.
15:09You're seeing airlines start to trim their flights, what I like to call they are strategically pruning their schedules.
15:17Flights that were profitable a year ago or before the conflict that were on the margins.
15:22Those flights now are likely unprofitable and those are the first ones to get cut.
15:27The shrinking of the schedules that has taken place at many airlines already such as Lufthansa, this is Europe's largest
15:34airline,
15:34cancelling 20,000 flights right through the summer all the way until October
15:38because they know that the schedule that they had sold last year is simply not deliverable.
15:46Lufthansa isn't the only airline to cut back.
15:50Air France, KLM and Air Canada have also slimmed their schedules.
15:55Airlines which fly in and out of the UK are nervous of cutting flights.
16:00That's because they can lose their valuable take-off and landing slots at airports if they cancel too many.
16:07But the government has recently relaxed the rules.
16:11One of the things airlines asked the government to do was suspend the slot rule.
16:16Slots are essentially something airlines own at airports.
16:20So you've got a flight from London to New York, you have a particular slot at Heathrow Airport.
16:24The rule is, if you don't use that slot, well, you lose it.
16:28Now, what airlines want to, if they're going to cancel flights, is, well, they don't want to lose the slot
16:32because that is a financial asset.
16:34So what the government has said, OK, well, if you do want to cancel some flights, consolidate some flights...
16:40What does this mean for travellers?
16:43Well, if an airline runs, say, three flights a day between London and Amsterdam, it's now allowed to cancel one
16:50of those three flights and put the passengers on the other two and keep their slot.
16:57Dispatches can reveal that up to the 2nd of June, more than half a million flights have been cancelled globally
17:03since the start of the war on February 28th.
17:07Airlines have quite a lot of leeway at the moment in terms of cancellations.
17:11As long as they give a passenger 14 days notice of the cancellation, the passenger then can choose between a
17:18refund or rerouting a day later, two days later, whatever the airline is going to offer them.
17:23How about if I've got a flight booked, it's due to fly out of Stansted, I get an email telling
17:28me, actually, your flight is now leaving out of Birmingham at this time instead.
17:31What are my rights?
17:33If the airline is significantly changing your departure time, where you're going from, it has to say, this is the
17:38situation, this is when we can get you there.
17:41You can either accept that or you can claim a refund.
17:45It's a refund or reroute at the earliest opportunity with another carrier if necessary.
17:49And if your airline is not adhering to those obligations and doing what is expected of them, then you need
17:55to remind them of those obligations.
18:00So how is all this uncertainty making those planning a holiday this year feel right now?
18:08One recent survey has found that more than 60% of consumers are concerned about travel costs and travel disruption.
18:17You work hard all year to pay for your holiday and you really do worry that should it all fall
18:21through, be devastated, really.
18:23With the war, things change every day, so it's really hard to figure out what is going on to be
18:29able to plan in the future.
18:30Just too much uncertainty and too much stress, really. You don't want to have loads of stress when you're planning
18:35a holiday.
18:36We've seen sentiment amongst passengers become very, very negative and passengers psychologically questioning whether or not this is the time
18:44to fly.
18:44This is the time to be parting with cash for a booking that may be cancelled or may be cut
18:49back, may be retimed.
18:51People are not wanting to buy into uncertainty.
19:00Among those looking for certainty is Pat, whose son's visit from Thailand for her 80th birthday in March was ruined
19:08by the start of the war.
19:11With the situation in the Gulf unresolved, are Pat and her partner Ron going to cancel their holiday plans this
19:18summer?
19:20They lived in Spain for 20 years until recently.
19:24Beautiful house. Loved it. Really loved it. The village was fantastic.
19:29But we had a lot of stairs because we had a lot of different patio levels and Ron's knees and
19:34then my breathing.
19:37We made the decision, rightly or wrongly, to move back here.
19:46They normally visit Spain a couple of times a year, but it looks like it will be different for the
19:51couple this summer.
19:53Are you going to go this summer?
19:55Hopefully.
19:56How do you feel about the airlines offering assurances that flights are going to be okay?
20:00You still worried?
20:03Yeah.
20:04They will say anything to get you to book a flight.
20:09And then they can just suddenly say, sorry, it's cancelled.
20:13You know, you get to the airport, look up on the screen, flight cancelled.
20:17What do you do?
20:18I mean, Ron is shaking his head.
20:21He's gagging to get back to Spain.
20:22He is.
20:24I keep saying to him, just go.
20:25If you want to go, you want to risk it, because it's not as big a risk for him as
20:30it is for me.
20:30Right, yeah.
20:31He's a risk taker.
20:32I mean, I used to be a risk taker, but I can't be a risk taker with my health.
20:37With holidaymakers like Pat and Ron reluctant to take risks, foreign holiday bookings are down.
20:462E has seen a 10% fall in revenue from summer holiday bookings made by UK customers, who have become
20:53more cautious due to the Iran war.
20:57To offset falling demand and high fuel costs, some airlines have said they're raising their base prices.
21:05But they're also trying to tempt us back by offering big discounts on summer bookings.
21:12EasyJet's big orange sale is now on.
21:14Some carriers like EasyJet and Ryanair are using eye-catching adverts like these, which were released last month to encourage
21:22travelers to book cut-price seats and get away for the summer.
21:25Don't wait, book now.
21:27We will see some airlines starting to reduce their fares, doing offers and deals in order to get those bums
21:33on seats.
21:33And the same with package holidays. They still need to be filled, they still need to be bought.
21:39Dispatches has obtained exclusive figures from the travel comparison site Skyscanner that show the top 10 destinations with the biggest
21:48price drop.
21:51Cape Town tops the list with a 20% drop in price, followed closely by Las Vegas and Nice with
21:58a 19% drop.
22:01And a range of European destinations with at least 10% off compared to last year.
22:07The cost of jet fuel has really gone through the roof for airlines and that is at some point going
22:13to be reflected in ticket costs.
22:16Now, the reason it's not at the moment is because demand is down.
22:20You know, fewer people are willing to book a flight to pay for a holiday because they're concerned about disruption.
22:25So if less people are booking to fly abroad right now because they're worried, surely that is going to have
22:31an implication on the airlines?
22:33It will. The implication for you as a customer though is, well, you might get a bargain.
22:37So not only will holidays go ahead this summer, but you might actually get a really good price.
22:43So how on earth are airlines offering deals on flights despite the jet fuel crisis?
22:50Well, it's because they're not paying full work just yet. And that's down to something called hedging.
22:57Hedging means actually locking in your fuel price for the future by buying a contract against your fuel needs, expected
23:06fuel needs for that period of time.
23:08It's not a universal practice. The European carriers and the Asian carriers continue to hedge and a number of those
23:17carriers are protected.
23:19Airlines often hedge for months, even years into the future, securing fuel at fixed prices, betting against rising costs.
23:29For low cost carriers particularly, hedging is key.
23:33Airlines are built around the thinnest margins and there is simply no buffer for a raging jet fuel price.
23:41And remember that airlines biggest overhead is jet fuel.
23:45It's not staff. It's not salaries. It's not even airports are acquiring new aircraft. It is fuel.
23:51And so when you have a fuel price that suddenly has doubled and continues to climb, that's not sustainable for
23:58any airline, no matter how healthy the financials are.
24:01And airlines could have to buy more expensive jet fuel come the autumn, meaning possible further cancellations.
24:10Once airlines start to have to absorb those costs, then we will see those costs filtered into the prices that
24:16we are paying for our flights.
24:19And it may well be that flights are amalgamated, that we will see cancellations.
24:24What advice would you give to anyone wanting to travel this summer?
24:28I would say be on the lookout for deals. We're starting to see those start to open up over the
24:33past couple of weeks.
24:34And if you see one that's attractive, I would go ahead and lock that in.
24:41We wanted to talk to and film with a UK airline or airport to ask what they would say to
24:47nervous consumers.
24:48So we hit the phones.
24:51We're making a film for Channel 4 about the fuel shortage.
24:55I was just wondering if we could have a chat about how the fuel crisis is affecting.
25:00How many are you noticing? Maybe less bookings coming in.
25:04Despite us ringing the majority of UK airlines and airports, not a single one wanted to take part.
25:12If you could call me back, that would be brilliant.
25:16Coming up, what's the most reassuring way to book a holiday this year without fear of cancellation?
25:23If it were me this summer, booking a holiday, I would book a package holiday.
25:28And what's the best option if flying is a no-no?
25:32That sun. Wow. Oh my goodness.
25:43I'm Kate Quilter and I've been lucky enough to travel all over the world.
25:49Hello, Africa. This is Delhi.
25:54Welcome to...
25:57Australia.
26:00It's beautiful.
26:03I'm looking at what's happening to our summer holidays this year.
26:09We've heard how, despite the chaos, it might actually be time to bag a bargain.
26:16If you see one that's attractive, I would go ahead and lock that in.
26:23With the conflict still going on in the Middle East, what's the best way to reduce the risk of a
26:28cancelled holiday?
26:34Well, you can start by looking at the way you're booking your holiday.
26:37In the UK, more than 13 million package holidays are booked each year.
26:42That's around 60% of all holiday makers.
26:46And the rest make their own arrangements.
26:49Have you booked it sort of DIY piecemeal yourself?
26:52Or have you booked a package?
26:53If you've booked a package, your package operator is obligated to find you an alternative flight at their cost.
26:59And if they can't do that, they're obligated to give you a full refund within 14 days.
27:04So you're sort of covered either way, excepting that in the worst scenario, you may not get a holiday, but
27:09you will definitely get your money back.
27:10Whereas if you've booked that sort of DIY piecemeal, a flight here and a hotel there, the same guarantee and
27:16the same security doesn't exist.
27:17If it were me, this summer, booking a holiday, I would book a package holiday.
27:23Package holiday or no package holiday, there is a risk out there.
27:36The travel chaos that's been caused by the Iran war in the last few months has benefited at least one
27:42group of people working in the travel industry.
27:44Scammers. Every year, an estimated 9 million of us fall victim to scams to the tune of around £9 billion.
27:54Travelers are certainly not immune.
27:58Scammers love a crisis, unfortunately, and will always look to prey on people's worries and concerns.
28:05Scams are becoming even cleverer, harder to spot.
28:14One trick the scammers like to pull is to make you believe that they are the airline or the travel
28:20agency that you booked with and then they get you to part with your hard earned cash.
28:27We're going to set up a little demonstration to show you how they do it so that you can avoid
28:33getting caught out.
28:34If you're worried about a flight delay, a fuel surcharge, a refund or a cancellation, then you might turn to
28:41social media to get an answer because who picks up the phone now anyway?
28:47We put out a message pretending that we had a flight booked this summer but had been cancelled.
28:53So we posted on social media asking for advice.
28:56We tagged some major airlines to see just who gets back and what we should do.
29:03We'll see how this goes when I return to it later.
29:14So how else can you mitigate the risk of a cancelled holiday this summer?
29:19Having insurance has got to be high up on the list of must-haves, right?
29:24Well, make sure you read the small print first.
29:27Bit of a misconception often with travel insurance that if something goes wrong on the trip in terms of disruption
29:32or cancellation, then your travel insurer will pick up the phone and say,
29:36listen, we will sort it out for you. That is very often not true.
29:40It's mostly about medical cover.
29:42The crucial thing to do is talk to the insurer because in lots of cases, even when they say they've
29:47got cancellation and disruption cover,
29:50well, this is a known event to some extent, so they may be excluding it.
29:53So if you're really, really worried, pick up the phone and talk to them so you're absolutely sure where you
29:58are covered and where you're not covered.
30:01There are some popular, far-flung places you will need to be even more careful about in terms of insurance.
30:08The impact from the war is really quite far-reaching.
30:11The most significant one probably relates at the moment to the Foreign Office advice, which advises against travel through those
30:19key Middle Eastern hubs of the likes of Doha and Dubai and Abu Dhabi for the most part.
30:24And because the Foreign Office is advising against travel through those hubs or to those destinations, it invalidates travel insurance.
30:33So just where are people going?
30:36The exclusive data we've been given by travel comparison site Skyscanner shows that during April and May, the most popular
30:44destination searches in the UK were for flights to Bangkok, Tokyo, New York, Tenerife and Alicante.
30:54A real mixed bag of long and short-haul flights. So which should people feel more confident booking?
31:01Right now, are there any differences between short-haul and long-haul destinations?
31:06There is a big difference between long-haul and short-haul in terms of the protections you enjoy from the
31:12airlines.
31:13So the UK and the EU have the gold standard of protections for flight cancellations, flight disruptions, things like putting
31:20you up in a hotel, paying you compensation if the reason for the cancellation is the airline's fault.
31:25Once you start going beyond UK and EU airlines, well, then you are at the mercy of the laws of
31:31that country or that individual airline.
31:33So what do you do if you still fancy some of this foreign sun and sangria, but you're too worried
31:39to go by plane because of all the reports of problems with jet fuel and cancellations?
31:44Well, you can still leave the UK, but by using other kinds of transport.
31:49There are other options if you don't want to fly. You can go by sea, you can go by rail,
31:54but you still will have to follow the processes at customs.
32:02Sounds great, but over the last couple of weeks during the half-term break, it didn't work out that way
32:07for some travellers.
32:08The M20 turned into a lorry park.
32:12And there were long queues at Dover and Folkestone for ferries and Eurotunnel for those travelling across the Channel.
32:19So what went wrong? It was all caused by these.
32:23Brand new biometric travel checks at the ports which have now been introduced following Brexit.
32:31We've seen a lot of delays because inevitably bringing in a new system is going to mean a transition period
32:37until everyone is au fait with the technology.
32:42The system is being used at airports as well as ports, but it had a worse effect on ferry and
32:48car passengers over half term than at airports.
32:52In the end, the French authorities suspended its use, but it's not yet clear how it might affect the big
32:58summer getaway.
33:01It's hard to say when any issues with e-gates will be sorted. It will also depend on where you're
33:07travelling to and from.
33:09And I think what we're seeing are the extreme cases of issues that have been experienced as opposed to in
33:15other instances where it has actually already proved to be quite a seamless, straightforward process.
33:21Airlines do seem to be preparing for possible delays. Last week, low-cost carrier WizzAir advised holidaymakers that they should
33:29get to the airport three hours before their flights, even for short haul, to allow for delays resulting from the
33:35new system.
33:42No one is suggesting that the rise in jet fuel costs is going to end our holiday abroad.
33:47But for many people, particularly when we're already worried about the cost of living crisis, the war in Iran comes
33:54as unwelcome news.
33:56So if we're really put off going abroad, there are alternatives.
34:07The staycation. It's fair to say that the weather here isn't quite what it is in sunny Spain.
34:14But could the uncertainty around holidaying abroad see a boom in British holidays?
34:26I'm in the UK in May and look!
34:32How beautiful is this?
34:34I mean, I literally could be in the Mediterranean.
34:38The attractions of a staycation at places like this on the Isle of Wight are plain to see.
34:44Both Airbnb and Booking.com have reported increases in domestic bookings.
34:49So how about some beautiful English beaches and glorious sun?
34:54What's not to like?
34:59Vacations are here to stay. They aren't a short-term trend.
35:03They are increasing in popularity because of the weather, because of our changing consumer habits, because of the fact that
35:10we're re-evaluating where we're travelling to and the choices that we make about our summer holidays and the costs.
35:16It might look like the Mediterranean.
35:21It certainly doesn't feel like it.
35:24It's so cold.
35:26It's so cold.
35:34Look at that sun.
35:36Wow.
35:37Oh my goodness.
35:41I mean, it's so very warm.
35:46On a day like today, I could be in Greece.
35:55With increasing demand has come increasing prices.
35:59This year, the cost of average daily rates for short-term holiday rentals have increased 27% in Blackpool, 25
36:08% in Devon and 20% in the Lake District.
36:12And across the UK as a whole, prices are 16% higher.
36:21A few miles down the coast is Bognor Regis, where the real risk to a staycation is the good old
36:27British weather.
36:30It's not dampening enthusiasm.
36:32According to the travel website Expedia, almost half of Brits are more interested in a UK holiday than in 2025.
36:41One winner is an icon of the British tourist industry, Butlins.
36:48With a history dating back 90 years, the Butlins holiday camp was one of the traditional ways that Britons enjoyed
36:54their summer holiday.
36:56And it's enjoying something of a renaissance.
37:00This is vast.
37:02Yeah, welcome to Studio 36.
37:04This is our main entertainment venue.
37:08How many seats can you fit in here?
37:102,000 seated, but 3,500 on our big weekends when we take the furniture.
37:15No way.
37:15Yeah, yeah.
37:16I mean, that's a rave.
37:17Yes.
37:19This resort can accommodate at least 5,000 guests.
37:23And since the start of the conflict, it's been filling up.
37:27For Butlins, all this flight chaos, kind of good news?
37:32Great news.
37:33Busy.
37:35Sold out.
37:35We were sold out for May half term.
37:3822% up in May.
37:39We had 30,000 scoops of ice cream sold across our free resorts and 35,000 burgers.
37:46Wow.
37:47Yeah.
37:48And we are up for our summer breaks and fully expected to be full and sold out during the summer
37:53period.
37:54We're not necessarily looking for holidays that will save us money because a UK holiday is not necessarily going to
38:00be cheaper than going abroad.
38:02But what we are looking for is something that's easier and less stressful and hopefully more enjoyable.
38:09Coming up, we find out whether the scammers have taken our bait.
38:14We received several responses which are clearly the start of attempts to scammers.
38:21And asked whether this current airline crisis caused by the war is going to change our foreign holidays forever.
38:28I think it's very likely that this crisis will go on past the summer and I think we need to
38:32be prepared for that.
38:39I've been investigating whether the war in Iran and the surge in jet fuel prices means our summer holidays risk
38:45being cancelled.
38:47This has been categorically the single greatest crisis for global aviation since the pandemic.
38:54We found travellers are reluctant to book.
38:57We can't make any phone bookings or any phone plans because there's so much uncertainty.
39:01So who knows when it will all end?
39:08In this time of travel uncertainty, scammers have spotted an opportunity with those who've been able to book a holiday.
39:18Earlier on, we set up a little trap for the people who want to use this travel chaos to try
39:24and scam us out of our money.
39:26We put up some posts on social media saying that we booked a flight and that it had been cancelled
39:32and we were asking what to do.
39:34We received several responses which are clearly the start of attempts to scammers.
39:41So how do you spot the scammers?
39:45I mean, the thing about all of these spam messages, they're using the actual logos.
39:51So at a glance, you could think that that is legit.
39:56Look at this very strange spelling here.
39:58I mean, whiz air, whiz air has got two z's in it for starters.
40:04Please follow us back and share your email address and reachable phone number.
40:10Reachable.
40:11That is very suspicious.
40:15All telltale signs that the message may not be from the real airline.
40:21But they've asked for contact details, email address and phone number.
40:26Once the scammers have those, they could contact the traveller asking for bank and credit card details.
40:33If you get an unexpected communication like that, really go back directly and say,
40:38Listen, I've got this email. I wasn't expecting you. I've got this message on a messaging platform.
40:42Did this come from you? Do you really need my credit card details?
40:46Really shouldn't be using social media to communicate any sort of personal details about your flight situation.
40:51And of course, don't ever bank transfer any money to anybody to pay for anything.
40:55Because that exposes you to the greatest risk of not getting your money back.
41:03Minimising risks around the all-important summer holiday means it could be a record-breaking year for UK resorts.
41:11Among the staycationers are Pat and Ron, who have cancelled their summer holiday plans to go to Spain because of
41:17the ongoing conflict.
41:18So this year, it's going to be the Costa del Yorkshire.
41:23Hello. Hello.
41:24Welcome to the Good Boy Coast.
41:26Thank you very much.
41:29Scarborough brands itself as the first Victorian seaside resort.
41:33Every summer, it has a million visitors checking in.
41:36And this year, they're expecting a bumper summer season.
41:39According to online travel agency Expedia, searches for summer holidays in Scarborough are up 40% on last May.
41:49Oh, this is nice.
41:52Pat and Ron have booked into a three-star hotel on Scarborough's seafront.
41:58£480 bed and breakfast for a five-night stay.
42:03This is going to be a nice, relaxing four or five days.
42:07The weather looks good.
42:09There's some quite nice walks along the prom.
42:11And definitely some fish and chips onto my ice cream.
42:16Just having fun, just relaxing, makes a change for more with having something to do at home.
42:23The staycation trend means the UK domestic holiday market is set to grow by 7% this year to nearly
42:30£14 billion.
42:31And a holiday like this is unlikely to be cancelled.
42:41So what's the future for foreign holidays?
42:46I think this might be one of the most sensational sunsets I've ever seen in my life.
42:52Will we be able to jet off and see the world as easily as we have done in the past?
43:01Of course, right now, no one knows just when the current crisis in the Gulf will be settled.
43:06There's a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran.
43:10But with jet fuel prices remaining high, travellers are feeling downbeat.
43:16I think we've seen the end of cheap travel for a while now.
43:19I think in a year's time, I think it is going to be more of a luxury to take yourself
43:24abroad with family and friends.
43:25My holiday was booked before all the trouble.
43:28But it does make me wonder, am I going to be able to afford one next year?
43:31If the prices do keep going up, this might be my last holiday for a couple of years.
43:36So are we right to be worried?
43:39Are we going to be paying a lot more for flights in the future?
43:43This has been an incredibly costly period for airlines all over the world.
43:49And it's not over yet.
43:51And eventually, someone is going to have to pay the bill for that.
43:54And that's why it is very likely, and all indications and industry projections show,
43:59that fares next year are likely to be higher than this year
44:03in order to pay for what all these losses airlines are racking up globally.
44:09Already, one US budget airline, Spirit, which had debts of more than $7 billion, has gone bankrupt,
44:17partly as a result of the high cost of aviation fuel.
44:20Will others follow?
44:22The longer this goes on, at some point airlines will start going bust.
44:26You only need to cast your mind back to BMI or back to Laker, you know, a long, long time
44:32ago.
44:32Airlines do go bust.
44:33Many people in the UK are undergoing a really, really hard cost of living crisis.
44:38They're not going to pay really expensive airfares.
44:42And what that means is some of those airlines will go bust.
44:46In recent years, the travel industry has had to learn to be extremely resilient.
44:51Remember COVID? But what about this time?
44:54I think it's very likely that this crisis will go on past the summer
44:58and I think we need to be prepared for that.
44:59I think we will see the flight costs increasing as fuel prices increase
45:05and we will see that gradual introduction of those costs
45:10into the costs of our trips and holidays.
45:13So we really are going to have to be looking at, yes, things are probably going to be more expensive,
45:17they might be a little bit more difficult, they might take a little bit more time.
45:20Travel operators, however, remain optimistic.
45:24I've seen different crises, wars, ash clouds, all sorts of things impact travel
45:30and just at the point where airfares seem incredibly expensive,
45:34something comes along that suddenly makes it much cheaper
45:38or a new challenger comes into the market and increases capacity.
45:42So the general trend has been towards better and better value air tickets
45:48and so I don't really see that dramatically changing.
45:57So as a result of the jet fuel crisis,
46:00it could be the case that the days of bargain basement flights will soon be over.
46:05But if the travel industry has shown us one thing, it is that it adapts fast.
46:14Millions of us will be hoping that for this summer at least we will be able to grab our sun
46:19cream,
46:20our swimsuit and our passport and head off into the sun.
46:27Let's go.
46:36And next Friday, Dispatch's reporter Ellie Flynn goes undercover
46:40to meet the people exploiting the cash-strapped and vulnerable,
46:43hunting the debt predators at eight.
46:45Up next, not only is it a brand new series, but it's also reached quite the milestone.
46:50Happy 50th episode, Celebrity Gogglebox.
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