00:00Luis Enrique's tactics have made PSG the most frightening team in Europe, but Mikel Arteta, well, he's no fool, is
00:07he?
00:07Making this game their chaotic home, eliminating PSG's rotations and utilising set pieces again
00:12could be the way for Arsenal to finally lift a European trophy.
00:17I'm Jacob Horsfall, 442's resident tactician, and this is why Arsenal can win the Champions League final.
00:27To understand how Arsenal can beat the current holders, we first got to look at some of PSG's other Champions
00:33League performances,
00:34because there's some nice little clues for us in there.
00:37No Champions League team has one possession in the midfield more than PSG this season, with a whopping 80 turnovers
00:42separating them from the second best.
00:45But, what does that really tell us about PSG? Well, they're superb pressers.
00:51They commit extremely high to look to minimise your angles and then force the ball out wide before cutting off
00:57any central passes.
00:58Romero, in this case, has two options.
01:01A small set for Ben Tanker, who can then switch the ball to the far side, or he plays a
01:06square pass to Archie Gray.
01:08However, both of those options are still huge risks, because they'd have to be buoyed perfectly to avoid two bloodthirsty
01:15wingers.
01:16Which opens up a big can of worms for Mikel Arteta.
01:19Arsenal ranked 8th in the Premier League for ball retention.
01:23They've been dispossessed as many times as 14th plays Leeds United.
01:27When you consider the fact that Arsenal are very rarely playing a team who actually want to play proper football
01:32against the Gunners,
01:33and will actually go really aggressive in the press, you imagine that Arteta's going to want to change things and
01:39will make some tweaks to get around PSG's press.
01:42This season, Arsenal have regularly split their centre-halves in build-up to utilise David Raya's comfortability playing out from
01:48the back.
01:49Which you do come to expect from pretty much every top team to win the Premier League.
01:55But, Mikel Arteta has also brought a sense of pragmatism in possession that we are starting to see the majority
02:01of Europe's elite sides adopt.
02:03Fulham have Eberechi Eze's forward passing angles almost completely cut off here.
02:08Most top sides would encourage this player to play backwards and retain possession before then going forwards.
02:14But not Arsenal. Instead, Eze clips one down the line to Victor Jokeres, who is darting in behind and stretching
02:20the opposition's defence.
02:21Which they've been able to do consistently this season, with the Swede leading the line.
02:26They've played a long ball 44.8 times per league game this season, but they can because they are relentless
02:33when it comes to winning those second balls.
02:35If the opposition press Arsenal and force their hands, they have Jokeres to hit, but more importantly, they have Declan
02:41Rice, Eberechi Eze and others like Zubamendi to latch onto those loose balls because they're all great mobile operators.
02:49Which, ladies and gentlemen, is the key from Mikel Arteta in this Champions League final.
02:55Umia Erfan posted this graphic on Twitter.
02:58This shows that when PSG engage in more duels, their non-penalty XG is lower. In turn, they're likely to
03:04win less.
03:05Arsenal, on the other hand, well, they handle it just fine.
03:09Which everyone has come accustomed to in England.
03:11If you go up against Arsenal, you try and make it a little bit chaotic to find that little bit
03:15of an edge.
03:16Which, well, let's be honest, you're not going to be walking away happy and smiling.
03:20Therefore, I think we'll see something almost reminiscent of Unai Emery's Aston Villa build-up.
03:25A narrow central shape with just two players in the wide areas.
03:29Arsenal will probably attempt to group PSG into small areas and pull them into a heavy press.
03:33Before then, playing direct to a midfield, stationed relatively high.
03:38Now, obviously, the games that we played on a stat sheet, it's not going to be played on a virtual
03:42tactics board.
03:44But, if they channel their inner dark side that we've seen throughout this season,
03:49then Arsenal have a real chance of breaking through PSG consistently.
03:53In the Club World Cup final, Chelsea used this strategy to do exactly that.
03:57You see them almost vacating the first phase, giving themselves a 2-2, or potentially a 2-3 if you
04:03count Caicedo,
04:04which commits five PSG players high up the pitch.
04:08So, when Sanchez sent that ball along from his own box, Chelsea had a 4v4 against PSG's backline,
04:14with two Chelsea players in individual battles with a little racing towards PSG's defence.
04:19If Arsenal can create similar scenarios, especially when you consider the fact that their squad is so much better than
04:26Chelsea's,
04:27then they'll give themselves even more than a fighting chance of winning the Champions League.
04:32But, speaking of fighting, what can they do when PSG have the ball?
04:37Because that's when they really offer their threats.
04:39Before we get to that though, here's a quick nudge in the direction of our 442 magazine,
04:44in which there is a brilliant offer for you right now of up to 36% off on various subscription
04:49packages.
04:51All you have to do is click the link in the description and choose whichever one suits you best.
04:55But for now, let's get back to Mikel Arteta's Arsenal Genius.
05:00They also have the second least opposition passes per defensive action in the Premier League this season.
05:04Which is great, and means that obviously they're going to be aggressive out of possession,
05:08they're going to try to turn the ball over, they're going to be consistently in your face.
05:11But when it comes to PSG, I don't think that sort of pressing start is the really most important here.
05:18Because PSG's rotations are brutal, with Dembele, Kvarscalia and others moving freely.
05:24So, you don't really want to be committing man-to-man, being super aggressive,
05:28and just seeing yourselves being dragged all over the shop by PSG's attack.
05:32However, an important start is the fact that these are the zones that Arsenal concede their shots in,
05:36with just 54% of their shots collect key fees being inside the 18-yard box.
05:42Now, that is more important to me, because that's not just them pressing really high,
05:47really being committed in a pressing structure.
05:49That's a lot about desire, about the willingness to throw your body on the line, get across it,
05:55and the incredibly rigid defensive structure that Arteta has built for Arsenal when they're in their own half.
06:04Their 4-3-3 shape is established as the foundations of their brilliance,
06:08but the back five players are the keys that have unlocked the upper levels of elite defence.
06:14Arsenal out of possession do, again, like their in-possession stuff,
06:18undo a few of the typical tropes of a title-winning side.
06:21If they are turned round when pressing and the opposition find themselves with the ball driving from a wide position,
06:26the four-backs won't regularly step out of the back line to meet the ball carrier like you typically expect.
06:32Instead, they will look to offer protection for their two centre-halves and defend the danger zone of a darting
06:37running behind.
06:39Doing this allows Saliba and Gabriel to do what they do best.
06:43With Ganacho in possession, especially considering the fact it's Alejandro Ganacho,
06:48you would expect Durian Timba here to go full throttle and try to win the ball,
06:53but the butterfly effect would see Saliba shift over here,
06:56which would then drag Ezzi deeper and leave just one Arsenal centre-half to defend against any box delivery.
07:01So, instead, Timba stands him up and protects the box so that Ganacho has to bruise the ball from distance,
07:07whilst the Chelsea striker is in a 2v1 because of Arsenal being able to keep players in the structure and
07:14therefore in their box.
07:16This sort of approach, and don't get it twisted, Arsenal aren't risk-averse, they aren't really safe out of possession,
07:23but this sort of approach when you're around your own box allows them to stay within their structure
07:28and prevent players being dragged into small side overloads.
07:32Not to get all anti-football on you, but in the first leg of the semi-final, Bayern Munich didn't
07:36do that.
07:37This position is terrifying if you're a Bayern Munich fan, a Bayern Munich player or one of the coaches in
07:42the sidelines,
07:43and it comes because of the Bayern forward committing really high, which means Jonathan Tarr has to commit to the
07:49wide side of the box.
07:51In turn, this pulls up a McConnell more central, which then obviously pulls the Bayern right-back more central,
07:56and if Jonathan Tarr doesn't win the ball, which realistically he was never going to do, then the ball can
08:02be cut back,
08:03and Kvart Scalia has free view of the Bayern goal.
08:06Don't get me wrong, that game was an absolute classic.
08:09I would love nothing more than the Champions League final being that full-throttle aggressive end-to-end football.
08:15But let's be honest, for Arsenal's chances of winning the trophy, that's just not going to be the case.
08:22Instead, it's going to be all about their marginal gains.
08:24Or as some may say, set-piece again, ole ole.
08:29Arsenal have scored five goals via set-pieces in this Champions League campaign.
08:34It's their biggest differential, and something that they inevitably fall back on when the going gets tough.
08:39For example, when they hosted Chelsea in the Premier League at the Emirates,
08:42you saw William Saliba headed home from a corner, and Jurjen Temba poked home from a set-piece.
08:47Now, don't get me wrong, PSG aren't necessarily scared of a set-piece either.
08:52They've scored eight set-piece goals in their run to the Champions League final.
08:56But this just is Arsenal's domain, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Champions League final was decided
09:02by Gabriel rising like a salmon above everyone else in the box.
09:07It would be hilariously on-brand.
09:09And you can say what you want about it.
09:11But they've just won the most competitive Premier League in my lifetime.
09:16So, why can't Mikel Arteta and Arsenal beat the reigning champions?
09:23I don't have a reason.
09:25But I've been Jacob Hall's fault. This has been 442.
09:28And we'll see you all next week for some more brilliant tactical analysis.
09:32Peace.
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