00:00Welcome to this week's gold forecast. We are starting with a major trend shift on the H4
00:04structure, as gold left some massive unmitigated supply zones last Friday.
00:09Let's look at the charts to see exactly where the smart money is hunting for liquidity before you
00:13take your first trade. Please watch the full video. Analyzing the retail sentiment data on
00:19MyFXbook, we observe a critical divergence. 54% of market participants are holding long positions,
00:26while 46% are short. This crowded retail long exposure often provides the necessary liquidity
00:32for institutional short expansion, fueling our primary bearish directional bias.
00:37Looking at market structure, XAUUSD remains firmly bearish.
00:43Multiple break-of-structure confirmations indicate heavy institutional distribution.
00:49Price is currently consolidating above our current demand at 44404460,
00:54while higher liquidity rests below recent swing lows. For the primary bearish setup,
00:59our focus is on this entry zone between 4520 and 4540. We are waiting for mitigation here.
01:06Once price action confirms institutional rejection, we can expect the move to start.
01:12Our invalidation level is strictly set at 4585. If price breaks this, our bias changes.
01:19Upon confirmation, the main objectives to clear retail liquidity will be scenario 1,
01:25achieving T1 at 4460, scenario 2 expanding to T2 at 4380, and scenario 3 extending to the lower
01:34liquidity pool at T3 at 4200. Conversely, if buyers aggressively defend the current demand,
01:40an alternative entry zone exists between 4450 and 4470. We are waiting for mitigation here.
01:48Our invalidation level is strictly set at 4410. If sustained, upside targets are scenario 1 at T1
01:57of 4540, scenario 2 at T2 of 4720, and scenario 3 reaching T3 at 4830.
02:06This is an educational video, not investment advice. Follow for more, the next analysis is coming very soon.
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