- 8 hours ago
八点最热报 | 前公正党署理主席拉菲兹退党，接管同心党 Bersama另起灶炉后，高举“重启改革”的旗帜加入下届大选战场。这股“改革新势力”，到底是在推动大马政治转型，还是无意间替马来极端势力加了一把力？（主播：蔡心慧）
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00:00Before watching the video, remember to check out trending websites for more content!
00:04Rafael Lafayette, the former number two figure in the Communist Party, rose to power through data politics.
00:08Both elections saw precise calculations of vote trends.
00:12But this time he used the same tools to start an even riskier scheme.
00:16Bersama, which took over the gay rights party, is loudly proclaiming a restart of reforms.
00:21Preparing to re-enter the battlefield of the next general election
00:24On the surface, this appears to be the emergence of new reformist forces.
00:28But the bigger problem is under the existing electoral structure.
00:32Will this force, in turn, undermine the ground that the reform camp has accumulated in the past?
00:37plate
00:37They also lost in the next general election.
00:39The gay party will eventually be able to completely replace the new alliance.
00:42Of course, it's an American-style case.
00:44But if you end up with nothing at both ends...
00:46Does this mean that Rafael is trying to bring down Anwar?
00:48Voters who want to support reform are prepared to accept a more extreme opposite outcome.
00:54fruit
00:54What if power were to flow directly into the hands of one party?
00:58Everyone might as well think about it.
00:59Once the gay rights party is caught in the middle...
01:01What will be the consequences?
01:03Is Raphael writing the darkest script yet?
01:08To understand this risk, we must return to the system itself.
01:11Malaysia's practice of throwing horses first has led to...
01:141 past the post
01:15Under this rule, an absolute majority is not required.
01:18A victory requires winning by just one more vote than the opponent.
01:21That constituency is yours.
01:23Therefore, election results often...
01:26It is not determined by who has the highest support.
01:28Rather, it's about whose camp has the fewest splits in the vote.
01:32Especially in urban and semi-urban mixed constituencies
01:35Simon did not lose a single seat in the last election.
01:37They all barely made it through, with most passing by the narrowest of margins.
01:40Sofian, director of the Guodika Poll Center, reminded
01:43Even if only 5% to 10% of the reform votes are in circulation
01:46Even in marginal constituencies, the odds can be altered.
01:50in other words
01:52The Unity Party may not be able to win.
01:54But he's a jerk.
01:55But he might decide who loses.
01:57More often than not, he decided that Simon would lose.
02:01That point is no longer an exaggeration.
02:03Because of the potential support base of the Unity Party
02:06Mainly concentrated in urban middle class
02:08Professionals and educated voters
02:11Especially Chinese voters
02:12From Raphael these past few days
02:14They automatically came to my door without stopping.
02:16An interview with multiple Chinese media outlets reveals this.
02:18He's aiming to grab Chinese votes.
02:21This group of people values reform.
02:23But in the national voter structure
02:25Not an overwhelming majority
02:27In comparison
02:28The core vote banks of Perikatan Nasional and Barisan Nasional
02:30More based on national identity and religious narrative
02:34The structure is relatively stable
02:35Not easily pried open
02:37Therefore, the risks began to become very clear.
02:40The United Front Party may not be able to penetrate the core support base of the Perikatan Nasional or Barisan Nasional coalition.
02:44However, it may garner a small number of new coalition votes in marginal constituencies.
02:47Even if they only take 1% or 2%
02:51Under the structure of "betting on horses to win first"
02:53This kind of split in voter base is often fatal.
02:57This isn't about having fewer tickets.
02:59Instead, the seats were completely reversed.
03:01The most ironic thing is that
03:03The Unity Party may not necessarily win.
03:05But the new alliance may suffer losses first.
03:08Those who truly benefit from the cracks
03:10It's one-party and Perikatan Nasional
03:14Former PKR runner-up Rafael resigns from party
03:16After taking over the Bersama party and starting a new coalition
03:19Raise high the banner of restarting reform
03:21Join the battleground of the next general election
03:23But the problem is
03:24This new force of reform
03:26Is it really about promoting political focus in Malaysia?
03:28Or within a more brutal electoral structure.
03:32Unwittingly giving a boost to Malay extremist forces
03:35Director of the Modica Poll Center
03:37In an interview, Ibrahim Sufian pointed out
03:39In Malaysia, the first-come-first-served system
03:41First pass the post below
03:43Elections are never addition.
03:45Instead, it's a game of division.
03:47A single vote can change the final outcome.
03:49He said the most direct impact of the Unity Party
03:52It is not about replacing Simon.
03:53Instead, they split the same batch of reform votes.
03:55Become a disruptor
03:57This division is evident in marginal constituencies.
03:59Often enough to rewrite the result
04:00The reform efforts of the past years
04:02Return to the starting point or even regress
04:33Unexpectedly, they will jump to the forced
04:54However, political analyst Huang Jinfa believes
04:56To assert now that the Unity Party is a troublemaker...
04:58It's too early to say.
04:59He believes the key lies not with the Unity Party.
05:02Whether to split the vote
05:03The key question is whether he has the ability to expand the voter pool.
05:06He said that if the Unity Party could attract non-voter voters in Pam...
05:10Patty Agu Maras Ndi
05:12Even to sway the National Alliance vote
05:14Then the game will be completely rewritten.
05:16What kind of performance can Basama deliver?
05:20It may depend on Basama
05:22Can they win over supporters outside of the existing Pakatan Harapan coalition?
05:27The votes of the other three groups
05:29The first group was Pam.
05:31Patty Agu Maras Ndi
05:32The second group consists of supporters of the National Alliance.
05:35Many of Perikatan Nasional's supporters were from the last general election.
05:38Kundi Labanras and voter registration after automatic registration
05:42Nearly 5 million voters entered the voter policy.
05:45These voters may not be loyal to us.
05:48If Rafisi's new party has a way of rallying young people from the lower and middle classes...
05:55people
05:55Then he would have a way to reverse the power predicament.
05:58Not the current assessment
05:59Instead, you'll see how many regions he plans to conquer.
06:02What is his positioning?
06:04When will our general election come?
06:06My main focus is Basama
06:08Will he be able to attract the urban working class?
06:13Malay working class
06:14This is very important.
06:15Huang Jinfang believes that if the Tongxin Party is only poaching talent from within Simon's own ranks...
06:19The result is accelerated division.
06:21But if he can step out and penetrate a wider voter base
06:25There is a chance to break through the chaos.
06:27Become a true dark horse
06:29Basama is a dark horse
06:31If that dark horse hadn't thought things through...
06:33It's about making Kamikaze Knights.
06:35He will leave a stigma in Malaysian history.
06:39Becoming a tragic hero
06:40The story ends here.
06:42But if he's smart enough
06:44He is very likely to be in today's chaotic situation.
06:47Scatter a bloody path
06:49It is almost impossible for one person to govern alone.
06:52However, it is possible to carve out a bloody path.
06:55Because people are dissatisfied with all current political parties.
07:00Including Perikatan Nasional
07:01Perikatan Nasional (PN) is basically
07:03The alliance between PAS and Bersatu is now defunct.
07:07The Islamic Party has nothing new to excite people.
07:11So if Basama is intelligent
07:14Basama's playing style should be similar to Simon's.
07:17To the National League
07:18Barisan Nasional and Bamu compete for votes
07:20Then he might be able to break through.
07:23Regarding the Tong Hsing Party's ability to grab votes across different camps
07:25Sufian pointed out
07:27The Tong Hsing Party's target voters are mainly urban middle-class people.
07:30Groups that are more focused on reform issues
07:32But the core demands of Perikatan Nasional supporters
07:34Malaysian identity
07:35Religious and Islamic Issues
07:37These are not the main themes of the Tongxing Party
07:39Therefore, the Tong Hsin Party was unable to win over the PAS votes.
07:43Instead, it might split Simon's vote.
07:45Indirectly helped PAS win a seat
07:48He became a super campaign assistant for PAS.
07:50In helping people mainly
07:52Provide information about the interview
07:53Interview provided
07:55Interview
07:55Interview
07:56Interview
07:57Interview
07:57some people
07:58But many people are refusing to go to
08:00area
08:01In more education
08:02Center workers
08:03and industry
08:04Industry of industry
08:05Those are very small.
08:06In the country
08:06so
08:07The tickets are very small.
08:08It's hard to think of them.
08:10Interview
08:10Even if
08:11Barislana
08:12Or Bath
08:13Basilana
08:13Basilana
08:14Basilana
08:14Basilana
08:29Sofian pointed out
08:30The real contradiction lies in
08:31The more reforms are talked about, the more real they seem.
08:33The reform camp is actually getting weaker.
08:34Every political party wants to represent reform
08:37Everyone wants to be a captain.
08:39But there was only one ship undergoing reform.
08:41Therefore, as reform votes become increasingly fragmented
08:44The result was that those who did not rely on reform...
08:46The political power of narratives benefits
08:48Further weakening the reform objectives
08:50This is precisely the most ironic aspect of the current situation.
08:53Shouting for reform
08:54Ultimately, this made reforms even more difficult to achieve.
09:26The Story of the Third Force
09:28This is not unfamiliar in Malaysian history.
09:30Uda was once expected to
09:33Expectations to change the political landscape
09:35But ultimately proved
09:36Under the structure of the "horse-throwing-first-entry" system
09:39New forces with highly overlapping voter bases
09:41It often does not lead to expansion
09:43Instead, it's a split.
09:44Similar ideas
09:46In this system
09:47It may not be an advantage
09:48On the contrary, it may become the biggest risk.
09:50Now the Brasama Party
09:53Raise high the banner of restarting reform
09:55Re-enter
09:56Is he truly the last savior of Malaysian politics?
09:59Or Simon's blind man
10:02Rafael's almost divine gamble
10:05Will it all come to an end?
10:06Instead, it has emboldened Malay conservatives and extremists.
10:08Do you want to reap the benefits without lifting a finger?
10:11The truly dangerous political
10:13It was never a complete failure.
10:14Rather, it was a half-baked failure.
10:16If the Tongxing Party cannot grow into
10:18Stable Third Force
10:20It continues to siphon votes from the reform camp.
10:23Then in the edge selection area
10:24This division
10:26Even just a little bit
10:27These factors could directly alter the course of the game.
10:30Under this structure
10:32The party that benefits from change is never the one that does it.
10:34Instead, it was the camp that already held a structural advantage.
10:38In the current situation
10:39Absolutely the Islamic Party
10:41Reform votes were split
10:43Simon was weakened
10:44Perikatan Nasional and PAS don't even need to expand.
10:46Just wait for the results
10:48They don't need to become stronger.
10:50All that's needed is for the opponent to become more fragmented
10:53This is precisely the cruelest side that Toastmasters will face first.
10:56He does not reward growth
10:58He rewards division
10:59So here's the question:
11:01When Rafizi re-entered the scene in the name of reform
11:04Is he blazing a new political path?
11:08It is still engaging in a high-risk strategic hedging.
11:11If the goal is simply to overthrow Anwar
11:14The cost would likely be more than just Simon losing a few seats.
11:18Rather, the entire reform camp was torn apart internally.
11:21Gradually losing its original structural advantages
11:24Ultimately, they handed the opportunity over to those...
11:27Political forces that do not rely on reform narratives
11:30A person who once won an election by accurately relying on data
11:33Perhaps they are writing another set now.
11:36A political equation that is even more difficult to resolve
11:38The reform was broken up
11:40The outcome was recalculated.
11:41The ultimate winner may not necessarily be the reformers.
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