00:00在两两四次之战现在,他们的偏差疑的国家是与其他
00:06人们的大国家
00:08在这回港课的一个人,
00:10它就对他们威武的国家的决定会在黄奏里的问题
00:21说国家,对我们有团队来支撑哈佛的国家
00:25他们在做一个人说,我将玩
00:26here we are more than four years later and they're incredibly Ukraine is
00:33protecting the entire entirety of the Western Hemisphere right now right
00:39Europe and the United States with their bravery and innovation and
00:44grit so the the Russian Navy was sent a big part of it was sent to the bottom
00:50of the Black Sea by Ukrainians who basically did remote control jet skis
00:55with explosives, you know, strapped to these things.
01:02And then you look in the case of Iran.
01:04Iran has kept the United States Navy more or less far from the Persian Gulf.
01:11The U.S. is only in a few cases in the last 10 weeks
01:15has the U.S. dared to transit the Strait of Hormuz
01:19because of the threat of these asymmetric weapons,
01:22drones, on-the-sea drones, under-sea drones,
01:26coastal defense cruise missiles.
01:27These things are not that expensive.
01:30This should give Taiwan some confidence
01:33because all of these new technologies favor defenders, right?
01:37It doesn't favor aggressors.
01:40It favors the defender.
01:42That should be good news for Taiwan.
01:44But only if Taiwan actually spends the money, does the work,
01:48invites Ukrainian and other experts to come to Taiwan
01:52and show them how to build a capacity
01:56to build these drones and missiles and cruise missiles and the like.
02:03The United States is not that power.
02:05It's actually Ukraine.
02:07Ukraine this year is going to build 12 million drones.
02:11The entire United States, for both commercial and military use,
02:15might make 300,000 drones this year.
02:18So one that we discussed,
02:20which is that these new technologies favor defenders, right?
02:25Taiwan is not dreaming of invading China, right?
02:31So this is a time when Taiwan needs to build its own capacity,
02:36help from Ukraine, help from Israel,
02:39help from countries that now have a proven capability
02:43to build layered defensive systems.
02:45Another lesson from these two wars
02:49is that offensive strike capability is also important, right?
02:53The Arab states that were attacked by Iran,
02:58even though they hadn't entered the war,
03:00yet they were attacked by Iran, all of them.
03:03It was Israeli and American offensive strikes
03:07that did more to roll back the threat of missiles and drones
03:11than as opposed to just relying on interceptors
03:15and defensive weapons.
03:17So Taiwan should be a porcupine,
03:21but one that can, you know,
03:23has sharp claws too and long arms.
03:26I think also that, again,
03:32deterrence means having a capability to defend yourself
03:37and also the resolve,
03:39the demonstrated resolve to defend yourself.
03:42As people in Taiwan politics are talking about
03:46negotiations with China,
03:48I don't have any problem with that.
03:50but you want to do that from a position of strength
03:54and that means building a defense industrial base in Taiwan
03:59that can iterate, innovate, update,
04:02and adapt these technologies quickly.
04:05The war that's going on in Ukraine,
04:08the Ukrainians change their drone technology
04:11and their counter drone technology every few weeks, okay?
04:15And Taiwan right now is having these discussions
04:17about what do we want to buy in three years, right?
04:20So Taiwan needs to be able to emulate that ecosystem
04:23that Ukraine has to be able to update
04:28and adapt those technologies rapidly
04:30rather than just relying on large weapons purchases
04:34several years in the future.
