00:00A very good morning, ladies and gentlemen of the media.
00:04The Middle East crisis is lumbering into its third months.
00:08Despite a fragile ceasefire, the consequences grow dramatically worse with each passing hour.
00:16I'm deeply concerned about the curtailment of navigational rights and freedoms in the area of the Strait of Ormuz.
00:24Impeding the delivery of oil, gas, fertilizer and other critical commodities,
00:29disrupting energy, transport, manufacturing and food markets, and strangling the global economy.
00:37As with every conflict, the whole of humanity is paying the price, even if a few are reaping huge profits.
00:45The pain will be felt for a long time to come.
00:49Consider these three scenarios based on forecasts from multiple sources.
00:54First, one where restrictions are lifted today.
01:00Supply chains will take months to recover, prolonging lower economic output and higher prices.
01:06This year's global economic growth will still drop from 3.4% to 3.1%.
01:15Global inflation, which had been declining, will climb from 3.8% to 4.4%.
01:25And global merchandise trade growth will shrink from 4.7% last year to roughly 2% with some meaningful
01:35supply chain interruptions.
01:37And the world still reeling from the shocks of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine will endure further economic
01:45distress.
01:46And this is the best-case scenario.
01:50Now consider a second one, where disruption drags on through mid-year.
01:57Growth falls to 2.5%.
01:59Inflation, it's 5.4%.
02:0332 million people are pushed into poverty.
02:08Fertilizers are low and crops yields fall short.
02:12And 45 million more people will face extreme hunger.
02:17Hard-won development gains are reversed overnight.
02:22Now in a third scenario, with severe disruptions persisting through the end of the year.
02:31Inflation skyrockets past 6%.
02:34Growth plummets to 2%.
02:37And immense suffering takes hold, especially among the world's most vulnerable populations.
02:43And we confront the specter of a global recession with dramatic impacts on people, on the economy, and on political
02:51and social stability.
02:54These consequences are not cumulative.
02:56They are exponential.
02:57And the longer this vital artery is choked, the harder it will be to reverse the damage.
03:04And the higher the cost to humanity.
03:08Developing countries will be hit the hardest, as crashing debt impedes their ability to cope.
03:15With lost jobs, deeper poverty, and more hunger.
03:20The crisis has already locked in losses for months to come.
03:24And every day that ships cannot move escalates these costs and amplifies their reverberations across the global economy.
03:34And so my message to all parties is clear.
03:38Navigational rights and freedoms must be restored immediately, in line with the Security Council Resolution 2817.
03:47Open the strait, let all ships pass, let the global economy breathe again.
03:54And that requires more than physical reopening.
03:58It requires shipping to be safe, predictable, and insurable.
04:03And simultaneously, I urge all parties to refrain from actions that could undermine the ceasefire.
04:10I've remained in close contact with a number of parties, as has my personal envoy Jean Arnault.
04:16All our interlocutors, independent of their different perspectives, recognize the need to work towards a peaceful, comprehensive, and durable resolution
04:27to the conflict.
04:29In the meantime...
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04:38Go...
04:39All India.
04:41Another India.
04:41Have a braved
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