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00:00Chief Bottle Washer at Pro Football Talk is Mr. Mike Florio. Hello, Michael.
00:04How are you, Mike?
00:05Hey, I'm doing great. How are you guys?
00:07Don't worry, I wasn't listening.
00:08I wasn't listening to your name rambling.
00:11I'm trying to finish a post here.
00:13I'm crafting a post that was inspired by last year's story that we wrote during the second night of the
00:20draft,
00:21which ended up being one of our most read posts of all time in the 24-plus year history of
00:27PFT.
00:27As Shadur Sanders was sliding down the draft board, we raised the idea of him at some point saying,
00:33I'm just going back to college.
00:35And that's relevant because I think at some point one of these guys will do that.
00:39When you look at Ty Simpson saying he could have made $6.5 million staying in college for another year,
00:45at some point you just have to say, wait a minute, screw this, I'm out.
00:49I'm going to go back.
00:50Now, good luck getting $6.5 million back on the table, good luck finding a starting job,
00:55but I'd like to think that somebody would turn to their starter and say, sorry, man, we're getting Ty Simpson.
01:01And that'll be that.
01:02But I just think it's a matter of time before one of these players who has remaining eligibility,
01:08before he's drafted or after he's drafted and before he signs a contract,
01:12says, I'm going to make one more year of NIL money because it's a hell of a lot more than
01:16I'm going to make
01:17under this contract that is available to me for the NFL.
01:21I couldn't agree with you more, Mike.
01:23I've always wondered why that hasn't happened even already because, A, you'll make more money,
01:28and, B, you'll probably be able to make more money when you do come out because you've had another year
01:32of experience
01:33at the college game and refined yourself a little bit.
01:36Here's one of the reasons why I don't think it's happened.
01:38A year ago, the path wasn't as clear as it is now because the rules are going to say you
01:44can't do it
01:45and you're going to have to fight the rules.
01:47But look at how many of these NCAA rules have proven under legal pressure to be antitrust violations.
01:53And since last year, the NCAA gave four years of eligibility to a basketball player named James Naughty
01:59who went to Baylor.
02:00He had been an NBA first-round pick of the Pistons in 2023.
02:04He just never signed a contract.
02:06And they gave him the eligibility without him doing anything.
02:10I think one strongly worded letter from lawyer Jeffrey Kessler, who has been thorn in the side for the NCAA
02:16in recent years,
02:17that's enough to get the NCAA to say, yeah, Ty Simpson can go wherever he wants to go.
02:24And I think the key would be if he's not taken in round one, you've got 18 hours until round
02:28two,
02:28that would be the time to mobilize.
02:30See what's out there.
02:32Get some sort of a commitment from the NCAA and say, I'm out.
02:37See you later.
02:37Don't draft me.
02:38I'm not coming.
02:40I've always wondered about that, too, Mike.
02:42It's such a fascinating thing.
02:44Another fascinating thing that's taking place is the amount of rumors that are all over the place
02:48when it comes to the NFL draft, and especially with the Browns when it's coming to trade down.
02:52Are you hearing anything on that front of the Cleveland Browns being open for business with six?
02:57Well, usually what happens is teams, especially teams that have needs,
03:02they should be always looking to trade down because fundamentally the draft picks are lottery tickets,
03:07and you don't know who's going to work out.
03:09You don't know who's not going to work out.
03:10And when you're looking to make a team better across the board,
03:13the more lottery tickets you can compile, the better off you're going to be.
03:17Now, you still have to draft the right players, and then you have to develop them.
03:20Usually it's hard to find teams that want to move up.
03:23That's the truth with any trade.
03:25You've got to have two teams that are willing to do business.
03:28It's how the Giants found a willing partner in Cincinnati to take on a player that didn't want to be
03:33in New York anymore,
03:34and it all worked out.
03:35So there's always teams that are going to trade down.
03:38It's hard to find that team that's willing to give up assets to trade up and get the guy they
03:43want.
03:43And there's this loose sense, and maybe it's just because there's nothing really all that exciting about this year's draft,
03:49frankly, especially without a Shadur Sanders in there who's going to do a four-and-a-half-round slip and
03:53slide.
03:54But I really do think that the opportunity to trade down, I know, the opportunity to trade down ties directly
04:03to whether or not there's somebody out there that wants to trade up.
04:08In this draft, and I'm usually all for trading down as well,
04:13but we hear there are five or six guys at the top of the draft who are big-time talents,
04:17at least according to all the evaluators,
04:19and then a bunch of guys who are in a similar situation.
04:22If you're the Browns and you need a ton of talent, are you better off going for an elite guy
04:26in the top six,
04:27standing pat, Mike, or just adding two or three guys and maybe setting yourself up for next year even more?
04:35Well, so much of it depends on what they truly think about next year's class based upon the information they
04:42currently have.
04:43And just think about Fernando Mendoza.
04:44A year ago, nobody knew Fernando Mendoza was going to become Fernando Mendoza.
04:49The same thing happened with Joe Burrow.
04:51Going into the 2019 draft, nobody knew Joe Burrow was going to be a top prospect in 2020.
04:56Everybody thought it was going to be Tua Tonga-Vailoa.
04:58So there's a lot of unknowns there that can't really be quantified on the way in.
05:05And then everything you do try to quantify in advance of any draft, we find out how imperfect it is.
05:10That's one of the things that is irritating as somebody who follows the drip drip of this.
05:15We see and hear the draft experts try to turn everything into a known absolute value here and this guy
05:26here.
05:26And then we throw them all into the blender and we find out later who can play and who can't.
05:31There's so many factors that go into it.
05:33So, you know, it all comes down to, and people still use that chart that Jimmy Johnson and the Cowboys
05:39developed years ago,
05:40although I think the rookie wage scale probably changes it to a certain extent.
05:43But it's all about finding the right team that's willing to do the deal that is necessary to get both
05:49teams to say,
05:50OK, we're going to do it.
05:52And we see bad deals get made.
05:54We see good deals get made.
05:55But what really is a good deal or a bad deal until we see what happens with the player?
05:59I'll give you an example.
06:00Last year when the Falcons gave up this year's first-round pick to get James Pierce Jr.,
06:05they thought it was a great deal.
06:06In their mind, we're just using our 2026 first-round pick a year early,
06:11and this is the guy, and we get a year out of him before the 2026 draft comes.
06:15Well, he played well, but then we have the off-field issue that is going to have a lot of
06:20people saying,
06:21my God, the Falcons really blew that, and they lost their first-round pick this year.
06:25On a guy who may never play for him again.
06:28Mike Florio joining us.
06:29Pro Football Talk is where you can read him on the Make It Right Call Kyle Wright Hotline.
06:33Mike, are you hearing anything new on the Miles Garrett trade front at all from anybody around the league?
06:40The Browns continue to say they're not going to do it.
06:44That revision to his contract that pushes the deadline for the option bonus
06:50all the way until a week before the start of the regular season provides maximum flexibility
06:54to help the Browns avoid paying that huge amount of money before he would eventually be traded.
07:00And they have that flexibility now every year for the remainder of his contract.
07:04So it may just be something that's there, not necessarily for this year.
07:09Maybe it's there for next year.
07:10Maybe it's there for the year after.
07:12I just can't imagine a guy who came out publicly in February of 2025 and said,
07:19I want out.
07:19And, of course, the Browns did what they always do when they have a problem.
07:22They threw money at it, and it worked.
07:24You know, it may not always work.
07:26And the Dexter Lawrence situation, I think, underscores the power that players have.
07:32Dexter Lawrence wanted out.
07:34And in two weeks, he got out.
07:36And now, look, last year the Browns gave him more money,
07:41and Miles Garrett had the best year of his career.
07:43But I think the problem in New York was Dexter Lawrence got sufficiently disillusioned
07:48it began to affect his performance.
07:49So they had to ask themselves, do we want to keep a guy who doesn't want to be here
07:55to the point where he's not the player he once was?
07:58Does that really help us?
08:00And what could we get for him?
08:03And so I'm not saying Miles Garrett should just show up.
08:05And I don't think Miles Garrett is wired to show up and not be all in all the time.
08:10He's chasing the all-time sack record.
08:12But I just think the fact that Lawrence was able to get out in two weeks
08:16could cause Miles Garrett, if he comes to a conclusion that I'm never going to pursue
08:23a championship here, that he tries again.
08:26And the foundation is in place in one of these upcoming off seasons for it to happen
08:31if he chooses to try to do it.
08:33Mike Florio joining us from Pro Football Talk.
08:36The Browns quarterback situation is what it is right now.
08:40I can't imagine it changing drastically.
08:43With that thought in mind, what do you think they've told Todd Munkin
08:46about what they're expecting out of this year?
08:49Because we've kicked that around a little bit, Mike.
08:51Because if they're looking to the 2027 draft and they're thinking,
08:56let's get into the draft as high as we can, that doesn't bode well for wins and losses.
09:02But does it bode well for Todd Munkin long-term in his career path
09:06when he's finally getting a chance to be an NFL head coach?
09:08What do you think they've told him?
09:09Well, there really is no long-term for coaches.
09:13When you have anywhere from 25% to 33% turnover every year,
09:17and there are plenty of coaches who were fired after one year.
09:20I remember when they fired Rob Chudzinski after one year,
09:23and everybody's like, oh, you fire a coach after one year.
09:25Went back and did a deep dive.
09:27A lot of guys only get one year.
09:29You can have one year that goes sufficiently badly
09:32that you're not back for a second year.
09:34And Kevin Stefanski made it for six years.
09:36It's amazing in hindsight that he lasted as long as he did.
09:39Now it helped to go to the playoffs twice.
09:40I don't know what he's been told about his expectations.
09:44I don't know that they know what the expectations are.
09:47You know, there's two different aspects to any NFL team.
09:50There's the aspect that we all focus on, which is how competitive is the team.
09:54Then there's the other aspect, how profitable is the team?
09:57This is one of the rare businesses where you can stink and still make a ton of money.
10:04So, you know, that's the dirty little secret that never gets discussed
10:07because they don't want the fans to figure it out.
10:10Like, I don't know how troubled every team that is not competitive all the time
10:15really is about not being competitive all the time.
10:18Because as long as the stadium's full and as long as you're getting your cut of the TV money
10:22and as long as all the other revenue streams are where they are,
10:25you're still going to make money.
10:27You're still going to be a viable business.
10:29It's a weird industry where you can be very, very profitable
10:33but be perceived as a failing organization because you don't compete on the field.
10:36So these are all factors that go into how the Browns look at this.
10:39Now, are they at the point where they're sick and tired after more than a decade of ownership
10:43by the Haslams of being one of the let's-stand teams?
10:47Yes.
10:47But how quickly do you really get there,
10:49especially when you're still dealing with the one thing that they don't want to talk about,
10:53the aftermath of the single worst transaction in NFL history,
10:56and they're still in that contract.
10:58And they still have a ton of cap charge they're going to have to take
11:01after that contract expires from the Deshaun Watson deal
11:04where they've kicked the can as much as they can
11:08and put salary cap money into future avoidable years
11:13that once he's gone, if he's gone after this season,
11:16and I'd be surprised if he isn't,
11:18they're still going to be paying for it in the form of money
11:20they've already paid out to him.
11:23Mike Florio joining us.
11:24All right, two wide receivers for you, Mike, that I wanted to check in on.
11:27One of them, where are we with the A.J. Brown rumors?
11:29Do you see him getting traded before the draft?
11:33My guess, and is it speculation?
11:38Yes.
11:39Is it informed by the circumstances and the patterns that I've seen over the last 25 years
11:45and interpreting the things people say and what they really mean?
11:48Yes.
11:49I think the Patriots and Eagles already have a deal
11:52that's going to be affected after June 1 if he passes a physical.
11:57But I think they already know what the Patriots are going to give,
12:01what the Eagles are going to get,
12:02and that A.J. Brown is going to be a member of the Patriots come June 2.
12:06And there's no reason to announce it now.
12:07Think about going into the draft.
12:09If the other 30 teams don't know about that deal,
12:13they're going to be looking at the Patriots and the Eagles' selections differently
12:17as they move closer to being on the clock
12:19because we don't know the Eagles won't have A.J. Brown
12:22and we don't know that the Patriots will have A.J. Brown.
12:24So it helps your broader strategic interest for the league at large to not be aware
12:31that you've reached a wink-nod secret deal, which is perfectly acceptable.
12:35There's no rule that's being violated.
12:37They have an understanding.
12:38They trust each other to follow through on it.
12:40And then when we get to June 2,
12:42they'll announce that A.J. Brown has been traded to the Patriots tending a physical.
12:46They'll do the physical.
12:47And if he passes, the deal goes through.
12:50So my guess is they already have a deal in place
12:53and they're never going to admit it until June 2 rolls around when they announce it.
12:59Mike, same question with Brandon Ayuk.
13:03I just think that the 49ers,
13:07because there are no remaining guarantees on the Brandon Ayuk contract
13:13due to his actions that caused those guarantees to be voided
13:16and he didn't even file a grievance to fight it,
13:19the 49ers don't owe him a penny until week one.
13:23Because he's a vested veteran,
13:25and that's any player that's got four or more years of service in the NFL,
13:27if he's on the week one active roster,
13:29his salary for the year becomes essentially guaranteed under the CBA.
13:33It gets complicated, but your money's essentially guaranteed.
13:36So they have until week one to do something.
13:39And so what if there's a team that's hoping to get a certain receiver during the draft
13:44and they don't get it, but if there's a team that when the dust settles on the draft,
13:49they say, oh man, we really have a need here.
13:52Hey, here's a guy who's available.
13:53We can work out a new contract.
13:55We can do this trade.
13:55And from the 49ers' perspective, anything they get is more than they have.
14:00And look, are they sticking it to Brandon Ayuk by holding on to his rights?
14:06Yes.
14:06Do they feel perfectly justified in doing so,
14:09given the way he conducted himself after they gave him a long-term contract?
14:11Absolutely.
14:12So this is just one of those situations where you have a team that is using the rules
14:16to its full advantage, and it's kind of hard for Brandon Ayuk to stand up and say,
14:21hey, you're doing me wrong.
14:23Because they can say, wait a minute, wait a minute, you made this mess.
14:26We're just trying to get something in return for all the money we paid you
14:29and got very little in return for.
14:33How are the book sales, Michael?
14:36You know, I haven't checked lately.
14:37I've been too damn busy.
14:38I focus on making the new stuff.
14:42I got a log jam of some stuff I'm working on.
14:47And I'm meeting with my agent here in a couple weeks,
14:49and we're going to try to figure out what's going to come next.
14:51So I'll tell you what I'm doing.
14:5325 years ago, I wrote a very crappy football and time travel novel.
14:59Now, when I was pitching some ideas for potential adaptation to some of the books
15:04I've written into a film, I just kind of mentioned in passing this 25-year-old book.
15:10And the executive I was talking to kind of sat forward and was like,
15:13that's kind of interesting.
15:14So I turned it into a script.
15:15So for the first time, as far as I know, I've never heard of this happening before.
15:19I've got a book that was adapted into a script,
15:24and I'm now writing a book based on the script based on the book.
15:27So I'm rewriting Quarterback of the Future, the hardcore old-school PFT fans will be
15:33immediately aware of that title.
15:35And I'm currently in the process of, I mean, from scratch,
15:38not even looking back at the original because it sucks, first of all.
15:43But the concept is valid and viable, and there's a good story lurking in there.
15:47So I'm rewriting the whole story start to finish.
15:49So that may be the next one.
15:52And the 25th anniversary of PFT is coming up November 1.
15:55I'd kind of like to land the plane and make that available right around November 1 of
15:592026, which will be the exact 25-year date from the moment we first turned the lights on.
16:05That's awesome.
16:06That's very cool.
16:06Awesome.
16:07Have fun covering the draft.
16:08We will look forward to everything that you have to say about it,
16:11and we always appreciate your time.
16:13Thanks, Mike.
16:13Thank you, Mike.
16:14Great talking to you guys.
16:15Mike Florio joining us on the Make It Right Call Kyle Wright Hotline.
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