- 6 weeks ago
Kevin Sheehan gives his thoughts on what he hopes the Commanders do with their first round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft and a common mistake they should avoid that other teams make.
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00:00But I did some prep last night, Max.
00:02I mean, prep for the draft is kind of laughable
00:06because I don't know much more than most of you about this.
00:11And as I have said to a nauseating effect, I'm sure for many of you,
00:16this is the thing we obsess about the most and know the least about
00:21and get wrong without question most more than anything else,
00:27as do the teams.
00:29Two-thirds of the time, the teams are going to be wrong on their picks.
00:32And the one out of three that they get right,
00:35they're not really sure which of the three it will be.
00:38They may have a strong feeling when they pick three players,
00:43oh, this guy's got the best chance, but they really don't know.
00:48Ultimately, things change.
00:50Fit, scheme, situation, personality,
00:54all of these things factor into success or lack thereof
00:59once these players get to the NFL.
01:01And so much of it is so hard to predict.
01:04But anyway, I did some prep last night.
01:08And I really view this draft the way many view this draft,
01:14which is, you know, after I think Bailey,
01:19and I understand Reese's upside,
01:21I just didn't see the same level of production that you got with Bailey
01:25at Texas Tech.
01:27And I think Caleb Downs and Reuben Bain
01:31like are locks to be really good players.
01:34Will they end up being transcendent, you know,
01:38all-time generational kind of players at their positions?
01:41I have no idea.
01:43Bailey's the one that when you watch him in college
01:47against some pretty good competition,
01:49you see a guy that you could envision
01:52is a problem for teams every week when he plays.
01:57Like, how are we going to block him on second and third and long?
02:03How are we going to keep him from wrecking the game?
02:07He's the one, to me, that looks like that kind of player.
02:12So, I would not pass on him.
02:15I doubt he gets to seven.
02:18But, of course, there's always stuff we don't know about these players.
02:22I mean, all the personal stuff, all the due diligence that the team does,
02:27we don't have that data.
02:29We don't.
02:31He's the one along with Bain.
02:34But, really, Bailey is a scare-you defensive talent.
02:37Bain is like, okay, he's going to be really good.
02:41Is he going to be great?
02:43I don't know.
02:43But he's certainly going to be really good.
02:45And I feel the same way about Downs.
02:47I like Styles a lot.
02:49I'm still not exactly sure that he is some sort of generational player.
02:56I love the character, the smarts, all of that stuff.
02:59And it's not going to surprise me at all if he's the pick
03:02and he's the guy we're talking about a week from today.
03:05Because a lot of the mocks have, you know, Jeremiah Love going four.
03:10And then maybe Downs to the Giants at five.
03:15And if both of those guys are gone, maybe that leaves Styles for Washington at seven.
03:21He just strikes me as a guy that Dan Quinn would love.
03:26And that Adam Peters would love.
03:28They are very much in lockstep.
03:29By the way, Adam Peters and Lance Newmark, the assistant general manager,
03:33held their pre-draft press conference yesterday.
03:36And we've got a lot of that sound.
03:38There aren't any huge reveals.
03:40But there were a few things that Adam Peters said that I think are worth playing back.
03:46But for me, if Bailey's not there and if they are shy on Bain because of the short arms
03:53and maybe anything else they've learned about him, I want to trade back.
03:57I want more picks.
03:59I want more swings at this thing.
04:01This is not going to be, I don't think.
04:04I mean, who the hell knows.
04:06But my guess is this isn't going to be one of those drafts where they passed on somebody at seven
04:12that was so obvious for a trade back that generated, you know, Sam Howell,
04:19Brian Robinson Jr., Cole Turner, and Jahan Dotson.
04:26I want more picks.
04:28They only have six.
04:29They have a lot of needs.
04:30This isn't just a draft for the upcoming season.
04:33This upcoming season is about health.
04:36You know, they have addressed a lot of potential needs on the side of the ball that needed the most
04:45defense.
04:46But next year is going to be a completely different year just based on health.
04:52If Jaden Daniels plays next year more than four complete games, they're going to be a better football team.
05:00If Terry McLaurin plays more than seven complete football games next year, they're going to be a better football team.
05:08I mean, that's more important than anything that happens for next year, next Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
05:16That's going to determine next season's record more than anything else.
05:20They have the quarterback.
05:21I believe they do.
05:23I know after last year, there's a lot of, you know, fear that maybe we saw the beginning of an
05:30injury ravaged career, a lack of availability.
05:34Who knows?
05:35You might be right.
05:35There's nothing prior to last year to suggest that that's going to be an issue with him in the NFL.
05:41He played all 20 games as a rookie, and he played 52 of 54 in college in two different places.
05:48But that's the most important thing in 2025.
05:51We can hand-ring over free agency in the draft all we want.
05:56The most important thing in, I'm sorry, in 2026 is will the starting quarterback play more than four complete games
06:04and a lot more than four complete games?
06:07Because if he doesn't, it's going to be another really difficult season.
06:14Back to the draft.
06:15I want to trade back unless Bailey's there or unless Bain is there and they don't care about the short
06:22arms and they say he's just too good.
06:25It doesn't matter.
06:26He's unblockable.
06:27He played NFL tackles, you know, during his college run at Miami.
06:34He played NFL tackles in the run-up to the championship matchup and then in the championship matchup.
06:41I see a player that's dominant.
06:44Ruben Bain, out of all of these players, you know, outside of Mendoza really, is the player that really, if
06:52you watched college football last year and you watched Miami,
06:55you couldn't take your eyes off Ruben Bain.
06:59He was that good of a college player.
07:03He was a total game wrecker.
07:06And Mesidor, their other DN, was really good too.
07:09And they both benefited from the other's presence.
07:13Just like Bain would from Owe, I believe.
07:16Or Bailey would from Owe.
07:19Chason, etc.
07:22But if those two are gone or if they're hesitant on Bain because their data, their analytics, people say,
07:30yep, at the NFL level, when you're playing that position, you can't be an elite level player with arms that
07:39short.
07:39You can be a really good player, but you can't be an elite player.
07:43If their data suggests that and they're hesitant to take him that high, I understand that.
07:49I would definitely not understand passing on Bailey if he's there, unless there's some sort of due diligence that uncovered
07:57something about his character, you know, that we don't know about.
08:01I'm not into Mansoor Delane at seven.
08:04I like him, but it's an important position and it's an important need.
08:10Like, I'm not sitting here saying, man, I'm fine with, you know, Mikey Sanders still and Trey Amos and the
08:21guy they got from Detroit in free agency as if, like, that's good enough, you know, with their new and
08:27improved pass rush, which includes, by the way, let's not forget Dorrance Armstrong returning, who was their best defensive player
08:34when he got hurt in week seven against the Cowboys.
08:38But I'm not sitting here saying, I'm just okay with Robertson, Sandra still and Amos.
08:44Amos was hurt a lot last year.
08:46He looked the part, but so did Sandra still as a rookie.
08:50I think Delane's going to be a really good player.
08:52I think it's too high for him at seven.
08:55I'd rather trade back and get more swings in the draft.
08:59I'd rather trade back to the middle of the first round, have an opportunity at a receiver, maybe another corner,
09:06maybe another pass rusher.
09:08And then add a second and a fourth.
09:13You can find players in those rounds in this draft that may be not that far off from the top
09:22half of the first round.
09:25This is one of those drafts where, you know, everybody believes it's pretty thin on generational talent.
09:34I do really, really like Carnell Tate, though.
09:37I'm not going to lie to you.
09:38I think it's too early at seven, just like I think Jeremiah loves too early at seven.
09:42I really like Carnell Tate.
09:45The more and more I, you know, I watched a lot of them as a college player, but looking at
09:50some of the other receivers that have been talked about, I really like Tate the most.
09:57I think Tate's going to be a really good wide receiver.
10:00I think he runs routes like Justin Jefferson.
10:03His hands are elite, elite level.
10:08And this four or five, whatever he ran at the combine just does not show up when you're watching him
10:14at Ohio State.
10:16He does not look to be mediocre in take the top off with speed kind of a player.
10:25I also really like Omar Cooper Jr., and that's one of those guys where if you traded back and you
10:32picked up, you know, a second rounder, now guys like Cooper Jr.
10:36and Denzel Boston, who I like a lot from Washington, he doesn't have, you know, the top end speed, but
10:44he has the size and the hands and the body, you know, ability.
10:48Denzel Boston's going to be one of those big-ass red zone targets that delivers over and over again.
10:56I like Concepcion.
10:57He's so electric, but there are, you know, hands issues with him, but there are receivers.
11:04I really like Branch from Georgia as a true slot.
11:09So there are players that they can pick in this draft.
11:13I'm not, you know, even more adamant on this.
11:17I am not a believer in Jeremiah Love at seven.
11:21I'm a believer that Jeremiah Love's going to be a top back, but he's not worth, you know, taking him
11:27at number seven overall.
11:28I don't see it.
11:30I see a lot of much more straight line and less wiggle, even when you go back and just look
11:36at highlights.
11:36Yes, there's examples of wiggle, but with a lot of space and gaping holes against bad defensive teams in his
11:45senior year.
11:46Is he an explosive athlete?
11:48Yes.
11:49Does he have ridiculous burst?
11:51Yes.
11:52Does he have straight line outrageous speed for somebody his size?
11:57Yes.
11:58Can he pass block?
11:59Yes.
11:59Can he catch the ball?
12:00Yes.
12:01All of those things, but not at the level of Bijan Robinson, not at the level of Christian McCaffrey.
12:06Like I've said, going back to the end of the season, it's more in line with just a faster version
12:14of Josh Jacobs.
12:15Nothing wrong with that.
12:17Josh Jacobs is a high-end running back.
12:21Jeremiah Love's going to be a high-end running back.
12:24He's just not going to be generational.
12:26And by the way, generational doesn't always pay off.
12:30It usually doesn't.
12:32But Bijan Robinson hasn't played in a playoff game.
12:36Derrick Henry hasn't been to a Super Bowl.
12:39Christian McCaffrey has been to Super Bowls, hasn't won one.
12:44Gibbs, even with him after his rookie year, and he had a decent rookie season,
12:50but he was not the key player in their playoff run to the NFC Championship game against the 49ers.
12:57He could have been the key to a championship run in 2024 if Ben Johnson had kept David Montgomery out
13:07of the game
13:07and just given the ball to Jameer Gibbs against our team in the divisional round.
13:13I mean, that was insane.
13:14The guy's averaging over 10 yards per carry at halftime, and he only ends up in the game with 14
13:20carries.
13:21I mean, and you're throwing wide receiver double passes.
13:25Ben Johnson's really good.
13:26Don't get me wrong, but man, he had a bad night in that playoff game against us.
13:31I'm glad he did.
13:33I'm glad he did, but just giving the ball to Jameer Gibbs another six or seven times may have been
13:40the difference in the game.
13:42But these running backs, you know, Christian McCaffrey's on his second team, you know,
13:47when he finally delivered deep into the playoff success at that position with a superstar group around him.
13:56I mean, for the last five, six, seven years, has there been a team in the league with more A
14:02-plus players than the 49ers?
14:06But he didn't do that at Carolina.
14:07He was a great player at Carolina.
14:09Didn't do it.
14:09Saquon Barkley didn't do it with the Giants, you know, but he did it in his second spot.
14:17B. John Robinson hasn't been to the postseason.
14:19Derek Henry's with his second team.
14:21He's yet to be in a Super Bowl.
14:23It's not a position that typically, you know, you ride to a deep into the postseason moment.
14:32The position of left tackle and wide receiver is more beneficial and more helpful to the quarterback,
14:40per the EPA statistic, expected points added, than the running back position.
14:46I'm not taking Jeremiah Love at seven.
14:48If they do, I'm going to be excited to think of a really top-level back with Jaden Daniels.
14:57It'll be explosive.
14:59I'm not saying it won't be, but ultimately, the data suggests you don't take guys like him at seven.
15:08Because the guys that have done it have done it with their second teams, not their first.
15:15Next, trade back is what I am hoping for, and what I hope we'll be talking about a week from
15:23today.
15:24You know, a trade back to where they could potentially pick up a Carnell Tate if he were to drop
15:28to 10 or 11.
15:29To potentially pick up a Reuben Bain if he were to drop because of the short arms.
15:34You know, to potentially pick up, you know, a Sadiq if he were there at 16, 17, the tight end
15:43from Oregon.
15:44There are a lot of possibilities for them.
15:47Maybe it's Delane who drops, you know, to 12 or 13, and there's a trade opportunity there.
15:52The mocked trades have been the Jets over and over again at 16.
15:58You know, maybe they like Makai Lemon.
16:01Lemon is an incredible separator.
16:03An incredible separator at the wide receiver position.
16:07I mean, if you traded back and you got Cooper or Lemon, yeah, I'd sign up for that right now.
16:14Cooper in particular.
16:16Cooper is just more versatile than Lemon.
16:19He's much more of an outside but can also play inside, you know, receiver.
16:26I like Surratt, too, from Indiana.
16:29Both of those receivers were incredible.
16:31And the quarterback was incredible.
16:34But to me, Cooper, I like Tate the most, but Cooper probably second after Tate, Boston after him.
16:43And then probably Lemon and Branch.
16:46But he's got high-level, you know, ball skills.
16:49Cooper does.
16:50I mean, he had the catch of the year in that incredible game against Penn State.
16:54If you haven't seen that catch, go check it out.
16:58Unbelievable on back shoulders.
17:00Really good, you know, yards after catch.
17:04And he's versatile.
17:05You see him lining up at the pro level inside or outside.
17:12You know, a trade back, picking up a Cooper at 16, something like that, I wouldn't have a problem with
17:20that.
17:20Or a Bain at 14 or 13 or 12 if he drops because of the short arms, I wouldn't have
17:27a problem with that.
17:28So that's where I am today, a week from us knowing what they did.
17:33A trade back is my preference unless Bailey is there or Bain and they just don't care about the short
17:44arms because the player is that good.
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