- 1 day ago
八点最热报 | 霍尔木兹海峡在燃烧，全球能源市场剧烈震荡，亚洲经济率先变得神经紧绷。摩根大通亚洲区主管拉吉夫早前接受CNBC采访时点名，在这场能源风暴中，亚洲大多数经济体已经成了惊弓之鸟，有些经济已经摇晃了，而中国与马来西亚，却被视为少数还能算是稳稳站在甲板上的国家。（主播：萧慧敏）
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Seize the opportunity
00:01Unified Business and Internet
00:02Helping enterprises take off in all aspects
00:05The Strait of Hormuz is burning
00:07The global energy market is experiencing severe turmoil.
00:09Asian economies were the first to become tense.
00:12Rajiv, Head of Asia at JPMorgan Chase
00:15He named [someone] in an earlier interview with CNBC.
00:18In this energy storm
00:20Most Asian economies
00:22They've become like frightened birds.
00:23Some economies are already shaky.
00:25China and Malaysia
00:27But they are considered a minority
00:29It can still be considered a country that is firmly on the deck.
00:32Upon hearing such a conclusion
00:34I believe many people have already started cursing.
00:36But let's find out first.
00:38Why would he say that?
00:39His statement is based on a certain principle.
00:41Invisible economic moat
00:44China relied on a ten-year strategic plan.
00:46Energy transition and the domestic circulation system
00:49Malaysia relies on...
00:51Oil-producing country status also has a policy buffer
00:53These two different paths
00:55They all supported the same conclusion.
00:57They can hold on for now.
00:59The impact of ground waves
01:00But problems also emerged.
01:02When oil prices rise
01:03Supply chain collapse
01:04Cost pressures are passed down through all levels.
01:07The market began to fluctuate.
01:08Businesses are starting to feel the pressure.
01:09Public discontent
01:11And they started to emerge little by little.
01:13So the bigger problem is
01:14Standing on the level of resilience
01:16Can we really rest easy?
01:18Or just a little later
01:20Hit by the storm?
01:22Let's look at China first.
01:23JPMorgan Chase's analysis believes
01:25China's resilience is a kind of
01:27A self-sufficient energy empire structure
01:30China's power supply
01:32Import dependence accounts for only 5%
01:34The rest are from China.
01:36Coal, hydropower, nuclear power, solar power, wind power
01:39This energy supply chain
01:41It has long been deliberately created
01:43An internal circulation fortress
01:45Zhang Guoling, founder of New Capital Investment, also pointed out
01:48China also possesses a vast strategic reserve.
01:51Sufficient to supply for more than 200 days
01:53Available whenever necessary
01:55Expanding the scale of alternative energy
01:57When cruise ships in the Strait of Hormuz began to detour
02:00When pipelines are involved in geopolitical games
02:02Become a bargaining chip
02:03China was already outside the chessboard.
02:05A separate chess game was created.
02:07This is a building that took ten years to build.
02:10Firewall built brick by brick
02:14Let's look at Malaysia.
02:15Its confidence comes from one
02:17The fact that has been underestimated for a long time
02:19Malaysia is an energy exporter.
02:22That country's oil revenue rose along with oil and water prices.
02:25The natural buffer of national finances
02:27It then thickens accordingly.
02:28More importantly
02:29Anwar's government in recent years
02:31They really put in the effort to enforce fiscal discipline.
02:33deficit under control
02:35Moderate inflation
02:36These two pillars
02:37They all happened to be in the midst of an external storm.
02:39The fundamental reason why it won't be blown down for the time being
02:42And right after JPMorgan Chase named him
02:44IMF's Latest World Economic Outlook
02:46On the one hand, global economic growth forecasts
02:49Reduced to 3.1%
02:51On the one hand, Malaysia's GDP forecast for 2026
02:54Against the trend, it was revised upward to 4.7%.
02:57The World Bank had already raised its forecast earlier.
02:59Malaysia's predictions
03:00And made a clear statement
03:02Malaysia does not need to be in the midst of the West Asian crisis
03:05Special economic stimulus measures
03:08But the IMF also warned
03:10The baseline scenario is based on a fragile premise.
03:13That is, the Iran war lasted for a relatively short time.
03:16Once the conflict escalates
03:18Oil prices before 2027
03:20Barrels have remained above $100 for an extended period.
03:23The global economy is sliding toward recession.
03:26Then
03:28This 4.7% forecast figure
03:30It will be the first object to be corrected.
03:35Trump's indiscriminate cutting of tariffs
03:36Cutting at a time when the global economic order is in chaos
03:39Another war against Iran
03:41This has caused the biggest panic in the global energy market in recent years.
03:44Oil prices fluctuated wildly
03:46Supply chain risks soar
03:47An invisible economic stress test is underway.
03:51In this shock
03:53The first to feel the lack of oxygen
03:55Not the West
03:56Instead, Asia
03:57Because Asia is the world's largest factory.
04:00It is also the production engine most dependent on energy input.
04:03First, Asia is actually the world's factory.
04:06Therefore, we need to use these chemical products.
04:08Actually, the main issues are chemicals and transportation.
04:11Because if you don't have this oil to make chemicals...
04:14If you don't take off your skirt
04:15You came down all morning
04:17Therefore, Asia was affected for the first time.
04:19Secondly, of course, 80% of that is shipped to Asia.
04:23Therefore, we are definitely one of the areas that has been significantly affected.
04:27Global factories are highly dependent on imported energy
04:30Supply chain spans thousands of miles of sea routes
04:32Many people are only now realizing this.
04:34Asia's prosperity is actually built on a...
04:37On the oil line that could be cut off at any time
04:40However, within this fragility...
04:42Head of Asia at JPMorgan Chase
04:44Rajiv Batra named two exceptions.
04:46Malaysia and China
04:48Two very different economies
04:50In a completely different way
04:52In the first shockwave of this storm
04:54They have temporarily stabilized their situation.
04:57Huang Guohua, a managing partner at MR Consulting, pointed out
05:00China took a full ten years
05:02He secretly built a firewall for himself.
05:04This is a grand scheme that China has already laid out.
05:07China, because of his recent years
05:09He is prepared for such a planet.
05:10It has been in preparation for many years.
05:12So you see a lot of those EV cars
05:14The development of vehicle-mounted energy has been underway for a long time.
05:17For example, talking about those sun people
05:19Power plants are common all over the world
05:20More than half of them are in China
05:22And that's for every two cars you have in China now.
05:25One car is an EV.
05:26Therefore, there will definitely be an impact on China.
05:29It's just that the impact was relatively small.
05:31China is relatively resilient, which means...
05:34His three main questions
05:35First, he made a lot of preparations.
05:37His reserves are enough to supply them for more than 200 days.
05:41If it's India
05:42It may be less than 10 to 30 days
05:44Secondly, what about China?
05:46He is also diverse
05:47This power plant actually uses very little oil.
05:50Thirdly, and more importantly, it relates to the entire economic industrial chain.
05:54The supply chain is all located in the country.
05:56You need your workplace/factory.
05:57If your entire industrial chain is located in China
05:59If they are all nearby
06:00You don't need to transport things back and forth.
06:02If you are dealing with import/export...
06:03This is how your industrial chain
06:05This could potentially have a significant impact.
06:06The layout that China built in 10 years
06:08A firewall was built
06:10In comparison
06:11What is the logic behind Malaysia's trump card?
06:14The financial analysts interviewed pointed out
06:16That is, we have resources.
06:18Because my country is an energy exporter
06:20Therefore, rising oil prices have actually provided us with a natural, localized buffer.
06:24We need to import regular oil.
06:26However, this imported oil generally contains...
06:28The oil usually comes from the Middle East.
06:29So that means we in Malaysia all have impact.
06:32It's roughly in the 20% range.
06:33So 20% is still acceptable.
06:35Because there is still oil in the geology.
06:36Therefore it will not lead to
06:37However, it only means that our oil levels are relatively high.
06:40So where is a lot of oil used for air transport?
06:42So we basically have enough oil.
06:45However, Zhang Guolin pointed out
06:46On the surface, Malaysia is an energy exporter.
06:49Rising oil prices appear to be a positive factor.
06:51But reality is not that simple.
06:53When oil prices rise
06:54Petronas revenue has indeed increased.
06:56Government finances appear to be benefiting
06:58But on the other side
06:59Enterprise Costs
07:00Transportation costs
07:01Import prices are also soaring in tandem.
07:04Malaysia, of course, is because we are a free-originating country.
07:07I think we can't say for sure that Malaysia's buses are no match for China's.
07:11Because, after all, although we are a free-producing country...
07:13The price of freedom has increased.
07:15Then Petrona's revenue may increase.
07:17It can help with subsidies
07:18However, it's very hard work for a business.
07:20Because of business, we are a trading nation.
07:22We still rely on global supply chains.
07:24Therefore, I don't think we can say that Malaysia is more resilient.
07:28Zhang Guolin and Huang Guohua both believe
07:30Malaysia is a trading nation
07:31China is a major exporter
07:33Therefore, when the global economy systematically slows down due to the energy crisis...
07:37Ultimately, neither country could completely remain uninvolved.
07:41The energy shock is the first wave.
07:43Raw material shortages are the second wave
07:45Rising inflation
07:46shrinking demand
07:47Supply chain disruption
07:48That was the truly ferocious third wave.
07:51The whole world will suffer then.
07:53No one is a winner
07:55My opinion is that...
07:56For the global economy as a whole
07:58We will see a financial storm.
08:00It may be small
08:01There might not be a situation like in 2008.
08:03But you'll see those US data...
08:06It might not be that good.
08:07This will lead to those companies
08:08There might be another round of those changes.
08:09affim
08:10Because if this thing continues for a long time...
08:13The global economy is slow
08:14It's bad for everyone.
08:16You can't say who the winner is.
08:18There are no winners
08:19This situation reveals that there are no winners in any case.
08:25JPMorgan Chase names
08:26Not based on IMF endorsement
08:27World Bank support
08:28All three major institutions have their eyes on Malaysia.
08:32So what makes Malaysia stand out?
08:33It's not luck.
08:35It is the real confidence accumulated over many years of fiscal discipline.
08:38So what gives China the right to do so?
08:40It relies on the realization of a ten-year strategic lead time.
08:42That long-planned firewall economic selection
08:46Self-recharged energy
08:48This reserve is ample.
08:49Supply chain internal circulation
08:51It kept external shocks outside the border.
08:55But the storm has not yet subsided.
08:57Being willful does not equal being immune.
08:58Malaysia is ultimately a trading nation.
09:00China's massive manufacturing machine
09:02It also requires stable external demand to drive it.
09:04The ceiling of Malaysia
09:06Determined by the global economy
09:07This is an ironclad rule that allows for any kind of capricious behavior without the need for formal regulations.
09:10In an era where energy is weaponized
09:13The core logic of economic security has been quietly rewritten.
09:15No longer the fastest growing
09:17Instead, it collapses the slowest.
09:19If the war with Iran continues
09:21No economy can remain unaffected.
09:23It's just that the order in which they fell was different.
Comments