00:00Everyone is watching America, everyone is watching Iran, everyone is watching Israel and Russia and Saudi Arabia.
00:06But the country that could change the entire trajectory of this war with a single decision,
00:10the country whose strategic position is so uniquely powerful that both sides need it and neither side can afford to
00:16antagonize it,
00:17that country is Turkey. Turkey is not cleanly on one side or the other.
00:20Turkey is doing something far more sophisticated than taking sides.
00:24And that sophistication, that extraordinary strategic positioning, is exactly what makes Turkey the real kingmaker of this war.
00:30Because once you understand what Turkey is doing and why,
00:33you will understand that the outcome of this war may not be decided in Tehran or Washington or Tel Aviv.
00:39It may be decided in Ankara.
00:40Let me start with geography. Because in geopolitics, geography is destiny.
00:44And Turkey's geography is perhaps the most extraordinary strategic asset of any nation on earth right now.
00:50Every day, without exception.
00:51Russia's entire Black Sea fleet, the fleet it has been using to project power in the Ukraine conflict
00:57and to threaten NATO's southern flank, exists entirely at Turkey's discretion.
01:02If Turkey closes the straits, that fleet is trapped.
01:04That is an extraordinary lever over Russian behavior that Turkey has exercised with remarkable discipline
01:09and strategic patience throughout the Ukraine conflict.
01:12But Turkey's geographic leverage does not stop there.
01:15Turkey shares a border with Iran to the east.
01:17A long, complex, deeply intertwined border with a history of trade, tension, migration,
01:23and mutual dependence that goes back centuries.
01:25Turkey shares a border with Iraq and Syria, the territories where Iranian proxy forces operate
01:30and where the supply lines that sustain Iran's regional influence run.
01:33Turkey is a NATO member connected to the most powerful military alliance in history,
01:37with the second largest army in that alliance,
01:39with American nuclear weapons stored on Turkish soil at Incirlik Air Base.
01:43And Turkey controls access to the Black Sea for the entire alliance.
01:47In a single country, you have leverage over Russia, leverage over Iran, leverage over NATO,
01:51leverage over the Middle East, and geography that puts it at the center of every major strategic calculation
01:56happening in the world right now.
01:57If Turkey decided that American conduct of this war against Iran was contrary to Turkish interests,
02:03Turkey could make American use of Incirlik significantly more complicated.
02:06Not close it, not give up its NATO membership,
02:09but make it difficult in ways that would impose real operational costs on American military planning.
02:14That is a card Turkey has not played, but it is a card Turkey holds.
02:17Turkey wants three things.
02:18First, Turkey wants strategic autonomy.
02:21Full, genuine, unquestioned freedom to pursue its national interests
02:24without being constrained by alliance loyalty or great power pressure.
02:28The ability to buy Russian gas and American weapons simultaneously.
02:32The ability to negotiate with Iran while hosting American bases.
02:34The ability to be a NATO member without behaving like one whenever NATO demands conflict with Turkish interests.
02:39This war is accelerating Turkey's achievement of that autonomy
02:44because it is demonstrating in real time that Turkey's indispensability to all parties
02:50makes it almost impossible to discipline or coerce.
02:53Second, Turkey wants regional dominance, not the Ottoman Empire,
02:57not territorial expansion in any formal sense.
02:59Turkey has been playing this game for 500 years.
03:02It is very, very good at it.
03:04And here is what I want you to understand about what all this means for the outcome of this war.
03:08Turkey is not going to end this war by force.
03:10Turkey is not going to announce that it is taking over mediation and present a peace plan.
03:15Turkey is going to do something far more subtle and far more effective.
03:18Turkey is going to make itself so necessary to every party
03:21that when this war eventually finds its way toward a negotiated settlement,
03:24all roads run to Ankara.
03:26The communication channels will be Turkish.
03:28The trusted interlocutors will be Turkish.
03:29Burkish
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