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Amid the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, Sagiv Steinberg, Director General (and CEO) and Director of Communications at the Jerusalem Centre for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA), said that the situation remains highly volatile. Speaking on rising tensions involving Israel, Iran, and United States, he warned that despite temporary calm, escalation could erupt instantly, especially with ongoing clashes on the Israel-Lebanon border.
Transcript
00:00So, we can divide it into two parts as far as I can see it. When you view it in
00:09the Israeli-U.S.-Iran war, everything seems to be quiet now, but as far as we can see what happens
00:19with the Cerrito Formos, the dialogue between the U.S. and Iran,
00:26we don't know what will be with the conversations in Islamabad on Saturday, so now everything is calm, but everything
00:36can erupt in a second, again, and when we look at the second front, it's the Israeli Lebanon front that
00:44influenced the first front of the Israeli-American-Iran front, there is no ceasefire over there.
00:52Now, since the morning, Israel bombed and destructed Hezbollah terrorists, and Hezbollah fired on the north of Israel, the civilians,
01:08so in the Lebanon front, everything is the same, but not the same.
01:15And why do I say that? Because if the ceasefire between Israel-U.S. and Iran will continue, and the
01:28front of Israel against the Hezbollah will continue,
01:33and there won't be any linkage between the two of them, and there won't be any linkage between the two
01:39of them, it's a great sign that Israel made it to dislocate this arm,
01:49from the fact that Lebanon and the fact that Lebanon and Hezbollah are part of this war, they are not.
01:58The only one that started the war, because Israel and the U.S. started the war against Iran, is Hezbollah
02:07and Lebanon.
02:08And they decided to fire at Israel. Israel, there was a ceasefire before that, and they decided to erupt it
02:18with missiles against the Israeli citizens.
02:20And if it will continue, Israel will need, in order to protect its northern civilians, to get a buffer zone
02:35in the north of Israel, inside the Lebanese territory,
02:40and not let any, any civilian, or anyone, to be inside that territory that will be a threat to our
02:52citizens in the north.
02:55That's the position now.
02:57Sagiw, I want to highlight one point. When the ceasefire was announced, there was a post from Pakistan PM, Shabash
03:05Sharif,
03:05where he mentioned that the ceasefire is on all the fronts, including Lebanon.
03:11But hours after, we saw a post on X by Israeli Prime Minister saying, operation in Lebanon will continue.
03:22Where are these conflicting views coming from?
03:25Because after these operations in Lebanon by Israel, Iran has also said that we are again closing Strait of Hormuz.
03:34Can you give us a little bit of details why there are so many conflicting views?
03:40As far as we can see, because no one knows what's going around in the U.S.-Iranian path in the
03:49peace talks, in the ceasefire talks, not peace talks.
03:52No one knows what goes over there. No one knows what's the true proposal that is on the table.
03:59But we can hear what Vice President Vance said, and we can hear what the spokesperson of the White House
04:07said.
04:08Lebanon is not a part of this game, because Lebanon and Hezbollah decided to start a war with Israel.
04:16And there is no linkage. There is not supposed to be any linkage if Hezbollah decides to fire on Israeli
04:26citizens and if Israel and the U.S. are starting a war with Iran in order to avoid her from
04:36nuclear weapons.
04:37There is no linkage over there. The White House supports the Prime Minister's tweet, and we will have to wait
04:46until Saturday and maybe earlier, if there is an ultimatum from the White House to open the Strait of Hormuz.
04:56And we will have to see where it goes, whether it goes into Saturday or even earlier, and the bombing
05:05of Iran will erupt again.
05:10Tagiv, you mentioned that the operation in Lebanon are to target Hezbollah.
05:18But I want to make a point that in these attacks that were carried out yesterday, at least over 200
05:26people were killed and more than 1,000 were wounded in these air strikes.
05:31As a citizen, as an Israeli citizen, will you condemn this kind of targeting of civilians?
05:41Any civilian that dies, it's a very, very unfortunate accident when an Israeli attacks everyone.
05:52We have to know the difference between when Israel attacks somebody, precise attack, and between if Hezbollah is shooting dozens
06:06of rockets on houses and playgrounds and kindergarten, and that's a great difference.
06:14When Israel wants to target someone, especially Hezbollah headquarters, not 200 civilians died, but most of them were Hezbollah, maybe
06:29RJC, commanders that were together in a meeting.
06:35And when Israel does that, she has an incredible intelligence that says, in this apartment, in this floor, there are
06:48the terrorists.
06:49And one missile is going over there and destroyed and killed the bad guys.
06:57When Hezbollah, when Hezbollah shoots at Israel, is just firing rockets and hopes that they will make damage in property,
07:06in civilians, same as the Iranians, by the way.
07:09When I sit in the shelter, okay, I play roulette.
07:15The missile is not targeting any military target.
07:22They're just firing to Tel Aviv, and when they do it, especially when it's a cholesterol bomb, it's spread all
07:34over the area.
07:36And when I sit in the shelter with my family, we can hear the booms, the large noise of boom
07:44that targets only civilians.
07:47No military targets, no military targets, no anything that's remotely near to any military.
07:56And that's, by the way, that's a violation of international law.
08:01When Israel fires with F-16 or F-15 or F-35, it's a very precise attack.
08:13We have to know and to, when you speak about it, there is no need to condemn it.
08:20If civilians are targeted, it's very, very unfortunate.
08:24It's very, very sad.
08:28But Hezbollah, same as Hamas, by the way, and same as Iran, are embedded in the population.
08:38Even the international law forbids them to do it, and when they do it, the international law is permitting several
08:47damage that can happen when you attack.
08:55But as we can see, when Israel targeted the Dachia, it doesn't come with large bombs of F-15 and
09:07carpet all the Dachia.
09:10There are specific places, specific buildings.
09:15By the way, Israel gives an alert to these buildings, to the residents, and tells them to evacuate them.
09:22Why?
09:23He doesn't want civilians to be hurt.
09:27That's why we are doing it.
09:28And it's all by the international law.
09:32Tagov, I just also want to understand from you, do you think Israel was kept in dark about this ceasefire
09:39that was agreed between Iran and U.S.?
09:44And in addition to that, I want to understand from you,
09:49was Israel in favor of this ceasefire, even after knowing that, because Israel have certain motives and agendas that they
10:01want to meet when it comes to this war.
10:04Have they been able to achieve all of them?
10:09If not, was Israel in favor of this ceasefire, or was it wanted more from this war?
10:21First of all, it's a ceasefire.
10:24It doesn't mean that the war is ended.
10:27We will have to see what's going on with the talks in Islamabad,
10:31and we have to remember that everything can be changed in a minute.
10:38If the talks won't go, as we saw in early February,
10:45when the Iranians came to Steve Witkoff and told him,
10:50we are capable of making 11 nuclear bombs.
10:55That's how they started the negotiations.
11:01I don't think that Israel was kept in the dark.
11:05Nobody knows how much Israelis officials knew.
11:08But I think that there is no conflict and nothing can separate between what President Trump and Israel are doing
11:22together.
11:23It's the first time that the U.S. in decades joins one country in order to attack another country
11:34to achieve both interests.
11:40So, we will have to see what will happen in the talks in Islamabad.
11:46I'm not so optimistic, by the way.
11:49I think that the Iranians won't give up anything that is a part of the nuclear program,
12:02not to reach in Iran and not to promise that there won't be any Iranian nuclear program anywhere.
12:13But we just have to wait and see.
12:17We don't have too much to wait.
12:2024 hours, 48 hours, and we know where things are going.
12:26Sagi Boy, at last, I want to understand from you.
12:30How does Israel view Pakistan as emerging as a mediator?
12:36Is there a trust factor there?
12:40Do Israelis trust Pakistanis as mediator?
12:45I think I answered it the last time you asked me.
12:49And truly, I think that Israel was surprised when Pakistan was one of the main negotiators.
12:58We need to know and learn why.
13:01And if you go and touch and learn the books, the financial books,
13:06you see that there is a great connection between Iran and Pakistan on the oil issue.
13:12And Pakistan was hurt because of this war.
13:18I don't think that Israel trusts the Pakistani or philic shields too much.
13:24I know, and we saw what the visit of Prime Minister Modi did in Israel.
13:32It was a very touching visit.
13:36And I know that Israel and India, I know that's what's very, very important for your viewers.
13:44I know that the connection between Israel and India will continue to be very, very strong.
13:50Thank you so much, Sagi, for your time and speaking with us.
13:55Thank you very much.
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