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Europe Today: Waffenruhe mit Iran wankt – über 250 Tote nach Israels Angriffen im Libanon
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NewsTranskript
00:18Die Sendung wurde live untertitelt.
00:30Since its war with Hezbollah began, more than 200 people are reported dead in an assault
00:36that is prompting Iranian officials to maybe withdraw from the fragile ceasefire agreed
00:40with the US.
00:42We'll speak to our correspondent in Lebanon.
00:44And after very frank talks at the White House, NATO Secretary General Marco Dutta has said
00:50Donald Trump was, quote, clearly disappointed that US allies had refused to join his war
00:55against Iran.
00:56And relations are awkward with NATO allies, with the US president calling NATO a one-way
01:01street and warning Europeans to start learning how to defend themselves.
01:06And just four days to go until Hungary's parliamentary election, shaping up to be the biggest test
01:12yet of Viktor Orbán's 16 years in power.
01:15From smear campaigns to allegations of foreign interference, the campaign has been toxic.
01:20And the European Union is holding its breath.
01:23We'll have the latest from the Hungarian capital.
01:25But first, a two-week truce between the US and Iran hangs on a thread this morning, despite
01:31yesterday's victory lap by some from the US administration.
01:34For more, I'm joined here in the studio by our US politics expert, that's Stefan Krobey.
01:38Good morning, Stefan.
01:39Good morning, Maeve.
01:40So we're seeing the ceasefire already beginning to unravel and the Strait of Hormuz closed again.
01:45Are we back at square one?
01:47Absolutely, Maeve.
01:48This is a ceasefire in which fire has not ceased.
01:52I mean, for starters, Israel is still firing rockets into Iran to say nothing to laying waste
01:58to half of Lebanon, which prompted the Italian foreign minister yesterday to warn against a
02:03second Gaza.
02:05As you said, this has prompted Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz again.
02:10And there are conflicting reports as to whether some ships could make it and could pass yesterday.
02:17And finally, we're hearing reports from Israeli, from Iranian airstrikes against some of the
02:25Gulf states.
02:26And of course, what is in the deal?
02:27That is the big question as well.
02:29There's a lot of confusion about what's exactly in it.
02:32Well, that's the multimillion dollar question.
02:34Absolutely.
02:34There is confusion as to whether the English and the Farsi texts are actually identical.
02:40For example, Iran claims that it includes Israel and Lebanon and Washington denies that.
02:46And that's, I mean, that's a basic point, right?
02:49And a political problem for Donald Trump is that Iran walks away with more than it had
02:56under a similar agreement under the Obama administration.
03:00Today, Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz.
03:05And the deal turns that waterway basically into a giant tool booth.
03:10That's why oil executives have reached out to the White House complaining about this.
03:14They were saying, well, we didn't have to pay any tolls before the war started.
03:20And now we have to.
03:21So we thought we were winning the war.
03:23So that's a big problem.
03:24And there's a lot to talk about on Friday when peace talks officially start in Islamabad, Pakistan.
03:31Indeed.
03:31Stefan Krobey, thank you so much for that update.
03:34Well, on the back of the news of the ceasefire yesterday, global oil prices did fall sharply
03:38and stock markets soared.
03:40But stocks are in free fall again this morning as the ceasefire looks set to unravel.
03:45To hear what this all means for us, we can now bring in the economist and professor Maria
03:49de Martis.
03:50Good morning, Maria.
03:50Thank you so much for joining us.
03:52So first, yesterday we saw markets very optimistic, but this reaction was premature given how fragile
03:58the ceasefire is.
04:00Do you think investors got a little bit ahead of themselves?
04:03Well, I think everybody's looking for good news, and that is true for investors as well.
04:08The fact that we do have a truce, the possibility of peace talks is a very good idea, and we
04:12are looking forward to that.
04:14But everything remains so fragile.
04:17And of course, we have Israel that has an independent view on in terms of what this peace
04:22might actually mean.
04:23So the whole thing is extremely uncertain and will remain so.
04:26The volatility that it implies for markets will remain so, I'm afraid, at least in the short
04:29run.
04:30And as tensions escalate again, how quickly will prices spike up, do you think?
04:35Oh, I think the experience of the past few weeks, but also the experience we've had back
04:39in 2022, show that prices can be extremely volatile in both directions.
04:43So I think, you know, to the extent that the peace deal might actually fail, we're going
04:47to see a huge spike again.
04:48I hope this will not be the case, but volatility really is the order of the day.
04:53So what will this mean for European households?
04:55Are viewers tuning in this morning?
04:56Should they expect high inflation?
04:59Well, we see it already in the petrol station where we go and reload our cars.
05:03I think we've seen it there.
05:04We might see it in our electricity bill, depending on what kind of contract we have.
05:08And there are big differences between both contracts and between countries in the EU.
05:13But then after that, we already see that the European Commission is downgrading its growth
05:17estimate for 2026, irrespective of what happens from now on, and is actually upgrading its inflation
05:24forecast for 2026 by about 1%.
05:27So, yes, the economic cost is already there.
05:29And of course, whatever happens, some long-term damage is already done.
05:32Maria Demertiz, thank you so much for joining us this morning here on Europe Today.
05:37Now, moving on, the United Nations has warned that the scale of the killing in Israeli strikes
05:42against Lebanon is, quote, horrific.
05:44They've called on the international community to help end the unfolding nightmare.
05:49Italy and France have already spoken out.
05:51And for their part, the European Commission has told Israel to stop the violence and respect
05:55the UN peacekeeping mission.
05:57Speaking yesterday at a press conference here in Brussels, they said they call on Israel to
06:01cease the operation and respect Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
06:06For more, we can actually cross now straight over to Lebanon and bring in our correspondent
06:11in the coastal town of Tire, which is Sur in Arabeck.
06:15Ekbel Zayn is standing by for us there this morning.
06:17Good morning, Ekbel.
06:18Thank you so much for joining us here.
06:20Just tell us how are residents doing there and how exactly is the situation?
06:27So we're having some technical issues there with the sound of Ekbel.
06:31Zayn, but we'll come back to her as soon as we can.
06:34But of course, all eyes here on Hungary, where parliamentary elections will take place
06:38this Sunday, which will have huge implications reaching well beyond the capital of Budapest.
06:44After 16 years in power, the Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, is facing a very credible challenge
06:49from Peter Maillard, whose TISA party is ahead in independent polling.
06:54For more, we can cross now over, hopefully, to Budapest and bring in your news correspondent,
06:59Zoltan Siboshegi, who's standing by for us this morning.
07:02Thank you so much, Zoltan, for joining us here.
07:05Just tell us first, what is the mood there ahead of Sunday's key elections?
07:09Good morning, Europe Today.
07:11Thank you for having me.
07:12So, actually, these weeks are the most turbulent times in the Hungarian politics in the last
07:1830 years.
07:20There are leakings every day, every morning.
07:23All the politicians accusing each other that they are spies.
07:26They are talking about espionage actions.
07:28And people fighting on the street, they are arguing.
07:32The main reason is that actually, for 16 years, there were no politics in Hungary.
07:37The government party was so solid that nobody really believed that they can change it.
07:42And two years ago, Peter Maillard just appeared from nothing, actually, from inside the system,
07:48and gave back to this hope to the people.
07:50They loved them with religious love.
07:53And actually, there is a shield around him.
07:56He had a lot of accusations with sexual abuse, with corruption, everything.
08:02But nothing worked out.
08:05If you look around in Budapest, anywhere, there are huge billboards with the face of
08:10Volodymyr Zelensky, because they are telling that Peter Maillard is also an Ukrainian spy.
08:16But nobody really believes it, according to the latest polls.
08:21What was a huge help for the Hungarian government?
08:24And that J.D. Wenz, the vice president of the United States, who visited Hungary for two
08:30and a half days, he emphasized, actually, he repeated the words of Viktor Orban, telling
08:35that, yeah, the biggest threat for Europe and for Hungary is the Brussels bureaucrats.
08:42I've also been told that the vice president of the United States coming and saying that
08:46Viktor Orban is doing a good job and is a helpful statesman to the cause of peace, that's
08:51foreign influence.
08:52When the European Union threatens billions of dollars withheld from Hungary because you
08:58guys protect your borders, that's apparently not foreign influence.
09:01When the Ukrainians shut down pipelines, causing suffering among the Hungarian people in an
09:07effort to influence an election, that's allegedly not foreign influence.
09:11It doesn't pass the smell test.
09:13That was J.D. Vance speaking there yesterday in Hungary.
09:16And of course, before that, our Hungarian correspondent.
09:19And we'll, of course, have live intensive coverage over the next couple of days on yournews.com.
09:23So do keep a close eye on that.
09:25But now we can bring you that interview that we promised, where our NATO correspondent, Shona
09:30Murray, had the opportunity to speak to Ivo Dalder.
09:33That's a former ambassador for NATO.
09:35And she started by asking him for his assessment on the very fragile ceasefire.
09:39Take a look.
09:41Although we've been six weeks into a war, an extraordinary bombing campaign by the United
09:47States and Israel.
09:50And I think Iran has the upper hand.
09:52I mean, that has been clear for quite a while.
09:54Remember, the Strait of Hormuz was open before the bombing started.
09:59Ships were going through, hundreds of them a day.
10:02Now, ships may be going through.
10:04We don't know how many.
10:05We don't know when.
10:06We don't know where.
10:07And in any case, the Iranians are claiming they will maintain control.
10:11The armed forces of Iran will maintain control over shipments through the Straits.
10:16That is a massive change in Iran's benefit and to the detriment not only of the United
10:22States and Israel, but frankly, to all the Gulf states who need the access to the Straits
10:27and so many others who depend on it.
10:30Well, I suppose also your heart would go out to the Iranian people who were protesting back
10:34in January, who were encouraged to continue their protests, who were promised that the Americans
10:39and the Israelis would assist them in regime change.
10:43And it actually looks like the Iranian regime has an even more ironclad control.
10:49Yeah, I think if this war ends like it does now, not just a two-week ceasefire by longer,
10:56we can say that none of the objectives, with perhaps the exception of the degree to which
11:03Iran still has a missile capability, that none of the objectives that were set out at the
11:09beginning of this campaign have been met.
11:10So when you look at it all, you say, why did we go to war?
11:15And if this is the result, you can't but conclude that this was a strategic blunder of historic
11:21proportion.
11:22The other question is the damage that has been done to NATO.
11:25I mean, you mentioned earlier there that allies have said this is not our war.
11:30NATO is a defensive organization.
11:31You know, they're a pretty clear cut about that.
11:33Donald Trump is threatening to leave NATO, is humiliating NATO.
11:37It's a paper tiger.
11:39What is the impact of this?
11:41Well, I mean, clearly what's happened over the last six weeks has been extraordinarily damaging
11:46to NATO, coming on top of the extraordinarily damaging episode of our agreements.
11:52And I think the three months that have just passed, we will look back at it as the worst
12:00crisis that NATO has had in 77 years.
12:02It will end up with all European countries doubting that the United States, or at least
12:09a United States led by Donald Trump, can still be counted upon as a reliable ally when it comes
12:14to Article 5 or to collect the defense of their territory.
12:17You know that Vladimir Putin is really, you know, can't believe his luck with this war in
12:22Iran.
12:23I mean, Donald Trump removed some of the sanctions on oil and so on.
12:27But if, let's say, he were to maybe test Article 5, maybe going into Estonia or one of those
12:33places, I mean, do you think that he might be a little bit more inclined to do that now,
12:37seeing the disarray within the alliance?
12:39Oh, absolutely.
12:40I think we are living in an extraordinarily dangerous period of time.
12:44We see a divide at NATO, which has been the goal of first the Soviet Union and then Russia
12:49for the better part of 80 years.
12:51A NATO that is truly at loggerheads, a NATO in which the President of the United States
12:57says, I'm not going to defend you.
12:58Don't count on me, as he put it, or bye-bye, as he said on his press conference on Monday.
13:06It's a good time to test NATO if you are sitting in Moscow.
13:10By the way, it's a good time to test what you could get away with in Taiwan if you're sitting
13:14in Beijing, because much of the U.S. military capability has been moved to the Gulf, and
13:21indeed, much of the U.S. military capability has been expanded on this war, which turned
13:27out to be a strategic blunder of historic proportion.
13:30So we're living in a world where the possibility of major adversaries taking advantage of European
13:39weakness and American self-inflicted wounds is larger now than any time in my lifetime,
13:45and frankly, probably any time in anybody's lifetime.
13:47Final question, Ivo, because you're a dual national.
13:49You're born in The Hague.
13:51But I want to ask you a little bit about Mark Rutte's modus operandi when it comes to
13:56Donald Trump, because some people have found that a bit great in him over the last few months
14:00that he hasn't been firm enough with Donald Trump.
14:03We saw in The Hague him referring to Trump as daddy and so on.
14:06And sometimes that's a bit of a joke, but there's a feeling that maybe he just plays it up to
14:11Trump a little bit more to the detriment to the European allies.
14:15What's your own interpretation?
14:17I think the big problem that Rutte faced is on the issue of Iran.
14:21He probably went too far.
14:23He probably went too much in the direction of supporting the president, particularly since
14:2831 of his 32 constituents believed that the war that the president of the United States
14:33had started was both unnecessary and, most importantly, illegal.
14:39And as a result, supporting the president sort of alienated him with many other countries.
14:48Shona Murray there speaking to Ivo Dalder.
14:50And now for the view from Lebanon.
14:51We can cross over once more to southern Lebanon, to the coastal town of Tir, which is Sur in
14:56Arabic, and bring in our reporter, Echbel Zayn.
14:59Good morning, Echbel.
15:00Just tell us how are residents doing there and describe the situation on the ground.
15:06Good morning, Maeve.
15:08Well, as I said, today is a national morning day in Lebanon.
15:12Hundreds of civilians who were killed and wounded yesterday by Israeli airstrikes that targeted
15:19multiple areas in the country.
15:21That airstrikes came without warnings and the bombardment continued overnight.
15:26Ambulances were racing, hospitals asking urgently for blood of all types.
15:31And also rescue missions were becoming more and more difficult as tens of people were stuck
15:37under the rubble.
15:38That sustained wave of bombardment was sending a clear Israeli message that Israel, at any coasts,
15:45refuses to include Lebanon and any potential ceasefire between Iran and the United States.
15:51And how does that make people feel there?
15:53Are people now fleeing for fear of their lives?
15:57Well, when the ceasefire was announced and following Pakistan's statements, hopes were really
16:03high in the country that we might be included in that ceasefire.
16:08So, yes, most people first tried to rush and come back to the south, yet the Lebanese army
16:14prevented some of them because it's not safe yet.
16:17And yesterday, the Israeli army targeted the last day bridge linking south areas to north
16:24areas of Latoun River to prevent people from returning to the south and also to assure that
16:30the war has not ended yet.
16:32Last day was one of the hardest days from the beginning of the war and people feel terrified
16:39and traumatized.
16:41So, yeah, many of them say that what's happening right now in the country goes beyond Lebanon
16:46and the country is somehow in the middle of a regional equation between Iran trying to
16:52reunite the front again and the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu trying to separate
16:59them.
16:59So, for now, all eyes are on the coming hours to see how things will evolve and unfold eventually.
17:07Indeed, on a very, very fragile situation.
17:09Stay safe and thank you so much for bringing us that live update there from Sour.
17:14Now, coming up, as we said earlier, this Sunday, Hungarian parliamentary elections.
17:20For more on what the outcome of these parliamentary elections could mean for EU-Hungarian relations,
17:25our reporter Jakub Janus now takes a look at the stance of both candidates.
17:32If there is one thing everyone is watching in Brussels right now, it is the Hungarian elections
17:37happening this Sunday.
17:38On one side sits Viktor Orban and his ruling Fidesz party.
17:42And on the other is Peter Magyar and his challenger Tisa party.
17:45But when it comes to the biggest European issues, your reporter was curious whose side they are
17:50actually on.
17:53If they shared a flight to Belgium, their views on Brussels could not be more different.
17:58Orban fights EU influence to protect national sovereignty.
18:02Whereas Magyar wants to repair the relationship, but avoids looking like he takes orders from
18:06the EU, deliberately keeping his distance from leaders like Ursula von der Leyen.
18:10Okay, but when they pick up the phone, who is on the other end?
18:14Orban maintains tight ties with the Kremlin.
18:17His foreign minister was even caught briefing Moscow around key EU meetings.
18:21And Magyar condemns this, accusing the government of acting on Vladimir Putin's behalf.
18:26However, looking next door to Ukraine, they differ in theory, but share a political calculation.
18:33Orban regularly blocks EU aid, campaigning on the fear of war.
18:36And Magyar avoids speaking about Ukraine, and his party opposes Ukraine's fast-track EU membership.
18:42But you see, there is a slight difference between them.
18:45Magyar personally delivered aid to a Russian bomb children's hospital in Kyiv.
18:49Finally, looking across the Atlantic, Orban relies on his close friendship with Donald Trump.
18:55Even hosting US Vice President J.D. Vance this week.
18:59Mr. President, you are on with about 5,000 Hungarian patriots, and I think they love you
19:04even more than they love Viktor Orban.
19:06And Magyar rejects this kind of personality-driven diplomacy, promising to root out Russian influence
19:12and restore Hungary as a reliable NATO ally.
19:15So as you can see, all of that paints a very intriguing political picture.
19:19However, let's not forget that in these elections, Hungarian opposition leader faces a severely
19:25unequal playing field.
19:26After 16 years in power, Fidesz maintains a massive grip over the state and public money,
19:31using redrawn voting districts and compliant media to gain advantage.
19:36And with Hungarian social media flooded with deep fakes targeting Petr Magyar and Tisa party,
19:43Sunday's vote will decide if the facts or the fakes shapes Hungary's future.
19:53Jakob Janis there reporting for us, and you can read more about the high stakes of these elections
19:58on Euronews.com.
20:00But for now, thank you so much for tuning in to Europe Today.
20:03Stay tuned with us here on Euronews for a brand new episode of The Ring,
20:06brought to you from the European Parliament here in Brussels.
20:09Take care and see you soon on Euronews.
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