00:00Is the United States running out of cruise missiles?
00:02A deep dive into the arsenal behind the Iran War 5 weeks into the joint US-Israeli war against Iran.
00:09A critical question is emerging from defense analyst circles.
00:13Is the United States significantly depleting its most potent weapon, the long-range cruise missile?
00:18According to more researchers and strategic analysts,
00:22the United States has already launched more than 800 cruise missiles against Iranian targets.
00:27That figure now exceeds the total number of missiles Israel used against Iran during the 12-day war in June
00:332025.
00:35This rapid expenditure has led some experts to suggest that the US may be
00:39losing a lot of power and may be forced to conserve its remaining resources for future attacks.
00:45The Pentagon, however, strongly disputes this conclusion.
00:48The Central Debate
00:49Depletion VS
00:51Endless supply analyst view
00:53Researchers who track US military stockpiles argue that the level of US attacks on Iran is visibly decreasing.
00:59They note that at the peak of the campaign,
01:01US and Israeli forces were firing approximately 300 cruise missiles per day.
01:06That rate has now slowed considerably.
01:09These analysts believe that if both the United States and Iran continue to expend weapons at current rates,
01:14they may eventually reach a stage where both sides are forced to run to the negotiating table simply because they
01:20have run out of high-precision munitions.
01:22The Pentagon's view
01:24Department of Defense spokespersons have forcefully rejected the idea that the US is running low on missiles.
01:30A Pentagon spokesman stated that the United States could continue fighting a war with Iran for years to come,
01:36and that it will not run out of missiles.
01:38The spokesman dismissed the researchers' conclusions as lacking respect for the US missile defense and production infrastructure,
01:45adding that the United States remains a true friend to its allies implying that stockpile concerns are overblown.
01:52The numbers
01:52What has been fired?
01:54What remains echoing to a report by the Post citing estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or
02:01CSIS?
02:02The United States fired more than 850 long-range missiles in just the first month of Operation Enduring Freedom,
02:09the joint US-Israeli campaign against Iran.
02:11That figure exceeds the number of missiles used in any previous as campaign over a comparable period.
02:17The Defense Department has not released exact numbers of missiles remaining in the US stockpile.
02:22However, CSIS analysts estimate that the United States still has approximately 300 advanced cruise missiles in reserve.
02:30These are not ordinary weapons.
02:32They are
02:32Long-range
02:33Capable of reaching targets up to 1,000 miles 1, 600 kilometers away highly accurate,
02:39guided by satellite navigation, and inertial systems mod
02:43Can adjust their flight path, and even find new targets mid-miss-in-seer launched
02:48Can be fired from moving ships
02:49Meaning the US does not need land bases in the region to strike Iran
02:53Each of these missiles is a marvel of modern engineering.
02:57They can be launched from international waters, even from the Pacific Ocean, and still strike deep inside Iranian territory.
03:03This capability has been a game-changer in the early stages of the war.
03:07The cost problem
03:08$3.5 million per missile while the US may not be running out of missiles, it is certainly spending them
03:15at an extraordinary rate and at extraordinary cost.
03:18Each advanced cruise missile carries a price tag of $3.5 million.
03:22That makes it one of the most expensive conventional weapons in the US arsenal.
03:27For comparison, a JDM Joint Direct Attack Munition, a guidance kit that turns a dumb bomb into a smart bomb
03:33costs only about $80,000.
03:35However, JDMs are short-range weapons that must be dropped from aircraft flying near the target.
03:41In a war against Iran, where defenses have been degraded but not eliminated, flying close enough to drop JDMs remains
03:48risky.
03:49The cruise missile, by contrast, can be launched from complete safety, 1,000 miles away.
03:55The trade-off is brutal for the price of a single cruise missile.
03:58The US could buy 43 JDMs, but a JDM cannot reach a target deep inside Iran unless the launching aircraft
04:06is willing to risk Iranian air defenses.
04:08As one analyst put it, you're paying for the range and the survivability.
04:13And right now, that's what the mission demands.
04:16The strategic concern, depleting resources for a future war with China Bay and the immediate conflict with Iran.
04:22US strategists are increasingly worried about a larger problem, depleting missile stockpiles that might be needed for a future war
04:29with China.
04:30Taiwan remains a flashpoint.
04:32Experts believe that any US intervention in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be largely ship-based,
04:38and would require massive numbers of long-range cruise missiles to strike Chinese naval assets, airfields, and missile batteries.
04:45If the US exhausts its cruise missile inventory in a prolonged war with Iran, it may have insufficient reserves to
04:53deter or fight China.
04:54One CSIS analyst explained,
04:56The war in Iran is consuming missiles at a rate that exceeds production.
05:01We are drawing down our strategic reserve.
05:03If China moves on Taiwan while we are still engaged in Iran,
05:07we could face a situation where we simply don't have enough long-range precision munitions to fight two major conflicts
05:13at once.
05:13Production ramping up.
05:15Can industry keep pace?
05:17Recognizing this risk?
05:18The US Department of Defense has been negotiating with defense manufacturers for years to increase production rates.
05:25Under the leadership of Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin referred to as HACID in the source,
05:30the Pentagon has recently visited factories and urged workers to boost production from 850 missiles per year to 1,000
05:38per year.
05:38However, even at 1,000 missiles per year,
05:41it would take nearly a full year of production to replace the 850 missiles fired in just the first month
05:47of the Iran war.
05:48This mismatch between consumption and production is the root of the strategist's concern.
05:53The workaround.
05:54Cheaper, shorter-range alternative Pentagon is not blind to this problem.
05:59US military planners are preparing to meet the need for missile strikes by using cheaper,
06:04shorter-range alternatives where possible.
06:06For example, if Iranian air defenses are fully destroyed,
06:10the US could switch from $3.5 million cruise missiles to $80,000 JDAMs dropped from aircraft flying safely over
06:18Iranian territory.
06:19However, that day has not yet arrived.
06:21An official who spoke on condition of anonymity told Smandy TV that while the number of cruise missiles in the
06:27Middle East Theta has fallen,
06:29the overall US stockpile remains substantial, and the Pentagon is confident it can meet operational needs.
06:36Official statements.
06:37Confidence from the top Pentagon spokesman Paul Senpan stated that everything is under control
06:42and that as missions are being carried out at the tempo the president chooses.
06:46He emphasized that the United States remains the most powerful military in the world.
06:51White House spokeswoman Corrine Jean-Pierre referred to as Colin Leavitt in the source dismissed claims of missile shortages,
06:58stating that the US military has the largest stockpile of missiles and weapons of any nation.
07:03She added that the US currently has many more than enough to achieve the operational goals set by the president
07:09and will be able to exceed those goals.
07:11The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, likely General C.Q. Brown or a successor,
07:16told reporters on May 5th that the United States does not lack ammunition.
07:21And that the US can continue the campaign at any tempo.
07:24At the same time, he urged defense companies to accelerate deliveries of more weapons and admission.
07:30Critics say that production needs to increase.
07:33The astronomical cost of war beyond missile counts.
07:36The financial cost of the war is staggering.
07:39The first month of US operations is estimated to have cost up to $40 billion.
07:43The Pentagon confirmed that in the first six days alone, the US spent $11 billion, most of it on missiles
07:51and interceptors.
07:52Israel is spending approximately $300 million per day on the war.
07:56To put that in perspective, $40 billion is more than the entire annual defense budget of many medium-sized countries.
08:04And that is just the first month.
08:06The Ukraine factor.
08:07A warning from the State Department US Secretary of State Antony Blinken referred to as the US Secretary of State
08:14in the source issued a warning regarding Ukraine.
08:17He noted that weapons originally reserved for Ukraine's defense against Russia weapons that have not yet been delivered
08:23could potentially be diverted to the Iran war.
08:25This has raised concerns in KYAV, which fears that Western military aid might be reduced if the Iran conflict tracks
08:32on.
08:32Iran's response.
08:34Not a passive target while the debate over US missile stocks continues.
08:39Iran has not remained passive.
08:41Tehran has demonstrated its own ability to use ballistic missiles and cruise missiles,
08:45threatening its Arab neighbors in the Gulf, particularly Iran.
08:49Iranian officials have warned that if the ask continues its campaign,
08:53Iran will strike US allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait.
08:59Iran has also shown that it can fire missiles from mobile launchers hidden in mountains,
09:04making them difficult to find and destroy.
09:07Even if the US has 300 cruise missiles left,
09:11destroying every Iranian mobile launcher would be like hunting needles in a haystack,
09:15each needle costing $3.5 million to strike.
09:18The impact differential.
09:20Cruise Missiles VS.
09:21Iranian drone zone factor that feathers the United States
09:25is the sheer destructive power of its cruise missiles compared to Iranian drones.
09:29A US cruise missile carries a 100-pound warhead.
09:32An Iranian drone typically carries only 50 to 100 pounds of explosives.
09:37That means a single US cruise missile delivers 10 to 20 times the destructive power of an Iranian drone.
09:43This differential explains why the US has been able to destroy hardened targets like underground missile depots
09:49and nuclear facilities, while Iranian drones have mostly caused superficial damage.
09:54However, quantity has a quality of its own.
09:57Iran can produce drones relatively cheaply and in large numbers,
10:01while each US cruise missile is a precision instrument that takes months to manufacture.
10:06Conclusion
10:06Running low or running smart?
10:09So, is the United States running out of cruise missiles?
10:12The answer depends on who you ask.
10:14The analysts say yes.
10:16850 missiles fired in one month.
10:19Only 300 remaining.
10:21Production at 1,000 per year.
10:23The math does not favor a long war.
10:25The Pentagon says no.
10:26The US has the largest stockpile in the world,
10:29can fight for years,
10:30and can always produce more.
10:32The strategists worry about China.
10:34Even if the US is not running out for Iran,
10:37it may be depleting the reserves needed to deter Beijing over Taiwan.
10:41What is undeniable is that the cost both financial and strategic is enormous.
10:46$40 billion in the first month.
10:48A production line that cannot keep pace with consumption,
10:51and a potential adversary in China watching carefully to see how much American power is left after Iran.
10:57As one retired general put it,
10:59we are not running out of missiles today.
11:01But if this war lasts another six months,
11:04we might be running out of patience,
11:06money,
11:07and missiles in that order.
11:09For now,
11:09the bombs continue to fall,
11:11the factories continue to produce,
11:13and the debate continues to rage.
11:15But the clock is ticking,
11:17and the world is watching to see if the United States can sustain its most expensive air campaign
11:22since World War II.
11:23So,
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