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00:00Hello everyone, you're watching NewsTrack with me, Maria Shakil. As the war in West Asia escalates,
00:05India feels the heat. But amidst the crisis, the Modi government chaired an all-party meet today.
00:12In the meeting that lasted for one hour and 45 minutes, the government assured all parties
00:17that India's energy security remains stable and additional shipments are on the way,
00:24which will arrive within a week. But it's not the government's statement on the war that has
00:29grabbed eyeballs, but its statement on the rogue nation and the neighbour, Pakistan,
00:34that's eyeing the big mediator role. Sources have told India today that External Affairs Minister
00:41Dr. S. Jai Shankar during the meet made it clear that India cannot act as a broker nation,
00:47quote unquote, like Pakistan. This after the opposition raised concerns over Pakistan's role,
00:53or should I say alleged role, in mediating talks between the United States, Israel and Iran.
00:59To know what all happened today in this very crucial meeting, which was chaired by Defence
01:02Minister Rajnath Singh, take a look at this report.
01:12War in West Asia and India is feeling the heat.
01:16Amid concerns over LPG and fuel supplies, the Modi government convened an all-party meeting
01:22to assess the situation.
01:25Defence Minister Rajnath Singh chaired the meeting and sought to allay fears,
01:29stating that India has adequate energy security.
01:34Sources say External Affairs Minister S. Jai Shankar briefed leaders on the PM's recent conversation
01:39with Donald Trump, underlining that India has pushed for an immediate end to the conflict,
01:44as it is impacting the entire region.
01:48On the question of Pakistan's possible mediation between Iran and the United States,
01:53Jai Shankar made India's position clear, that India cannot be a Dalal nation.
01:58The government also indicated that such back-channel dynamics are not new,
02:03suggesting that America has, for decades, engaged Pakistan in maintaining communication channels with Iran.
02:10On the energy front, the government reassured all parties that supply lines remain intact.
02:16At least four LPG-laden ships are expected to reach India via the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days.
02:24The government has been a long-term, and the government has been a long-term,
02:53During the meeting, opposition leaders questioned the reasons behind the U.S. and Israel's strikes on Iran.
02:59The foreign secretary responded that the attacks were linked to Iran's nuclear activities.
03:05However, the opposition is now demanding a detailed discussion in parliament,
03:09with some leaders expressing dissatisfaction over the government's responses.
03:22It was the case that the entire country was standing in the line of gas cylinder and now it's going
03:27to fall on the petrol pumps.
03:31So it was a panic created by the Prime Minister for two days.
03:36It was also a situation in the U.S. and the situation in the U.S. and the situation in
03:41the U.S.
03:42So it was the case of the government that we were producing 60% of the LPG domestically.
03:49produced current notably the tnc skipped the meeting as more details emerge one thing is clear
03:56india is speaking in a firm decisive voice setting its terms as the west asia conflict intensifies
04:04bureau report india today
04:10now let's shift focus to what exactly is happening in this ongoing war the big question on everyone's
04:15mind is what will it take to stop this war and hours after tehran received a 15-point proposal
04:22from the u.s to reach a ceasefire in the war via pakistan tehran has drawn the red line by
04:28issuing
04:29its own sets of demands what are votes these stakeholders saying and will this war see an
04:36end or is this just posturing before another escalation before i bring in my guest take a look
04:42at this report
04:54on day 26 of the war talks have taken center stage according to the western media the trump
05:00administration has formally sent iran a 15-point ceasefire plan via pakistan remember pakistan is
05:07eyeing the key mediator role amid the war on iran the u.s proposal seeks major concessions from iran
05:15america's core demands include complete dismantling of iran's nuclear weapons infra
05:20complete and permanent hold to all uranium enrichment inside tehran commitment to never pursue nuclear
05:27ambitions decommissioning of nuclear hubs in natans isfahan and fordo abandoning all proxies of iran and
05:34stopping their financing opening the state of hormuz as free maritime zone the list of demands also
05:42includes limiting iran's missile arsenal
05:47the framework largely mirrors a 2025 proposal that iran had rejected earlier raising doubts over any real
05:55breakthrough meanwhile in a cryptic post donald trump has praised iran calling the payoff a very big present
06:01worth a tremendous amount of money what it showed me is that we're dealing with the right people
06:07because you know you don't know because the leadership was killed all gone khomeini all gone
06:13as the expression goes the past supreme leader and then the new supreme leader was racked up at a minimum
06:21racked up pretty good they gave us a present and the president arrived today and it was a very big
06:29present
06:30worth a tremendous amount of money the air campaign that we've conducted that israel's conducted alongside
06:35us was one for the history books truly and it's because we have a president united states that when he
06:40sends his war fighters out to fight he unties their hands to actually go out and close with and destroy
06:46the enemy as viciously as possible from moment one in response iran has reportedly laid down its own
06:53sweeping conditions tehran has demanded immediate ceasefire and right to nuclear power and missile program
07:01it is also demanding an immediate ceasefire before any talks full recognition of iran's autonomy
07:07and an end to regime change efforts it has also sought compensation for war damages and binding
07:13security guarantees
07:16despite talk of a pause signs of escalation persist in west asia
07:21donald trump appears to be pursuing a dual strategy dialogue on one side escalation on the other
07:29the us is boosting its military presence with additional naval and troop deployments
07:34signaling readiness for a prolonged conflict reports suggest up to 3 000 troops may be deployed
07:42in response iran has issued a direct warning saying it is closely monitoring the u.s buildup
07:49tehran is also cautioned that washington could become a victim of benjamin netanyahu's decisions
07:54reiterating its claim that the u.s is acting at israel's behest
07:59so what's actually happening on the dialogue front
08:03what does the u.s want and what are tehran's red lines so far there is no clarity bureau report
08:12india today
08:16i'm going to go to riyadh from where dr john asfakyanakis who is the chief economist at the gulf
08:24research center is joining me live he's also a fellow at the chatham house in london thank you so
08:30much for your time from your vantage point tracking gulf uh macro fiscal dynamics and oil policy how do you
08:39interpret washington's dual track strategy of military deployment uh combined with diplomatic signaling
08:46does this approach primarily aim to underwrite a negotiated outcome that preserves energy
08:58well it tries to preserve energy but also it tries to preserve u.s credibility standing in the world
09:08economy and also in the gulf countries and the wider asia economic landscape remember that negotiations
09:17as you've said quite rightly are in parallel to the deployment of troops in parallel to also the
09:27possibility of using uh special forces to open up the straits of hormuz this has happened in the past
09:36remember this war has started whilst negotiations were taking place in oman that's right and all of a
09:44sudden that night of the 28th of february the attacks begun dr asfakyanakis our markets buying the calm
09:54are quietly pricing in escalation across oil uh equities and also capital flows in the gulf
10:04our markets are buying the dip they're buying that there is going to be some kind of a settlement
10:11coming up and as you've seen oil prices have dipped quite a bit both west texas intermediate and brent in
10:19terms of crude oil and also you have seen in u.s equities and equities around the world there has
10:26been a
10:27relief rally but having said that volatility is there markets could change very quickly if they hear that
10:35the negotiations are not going anywhere then that could very well change within a minute or two
10:42you're joining me from riyadh in saudi arabia how should this be seen from uh the context of
10:49economies of saudi uae and dubai
10:55i think that what we have seen with the gulf economies is is that there is resilience
11:02no doubt the war has impacted them because they're sitting in the middle being attacked for no real
11:09reason other than what we hear from the iranian side that because they have bases the u.s america
11:16has bases in many of these countries we will hit the gulf countries the gulf countries have never been
11:23an aggressor so there is no justification for this but having said this the gulf economies are sitting
11:31in a pool of wealth they're sitting on more than five trillion dollars worth of sovereign investments
11:39around the world and they have been far more resilient today than 20 30 years ago so i'm very optimistic
11:49however the short-term effect is that these economies are impacted remember they're exporting oil and
11:56natural gas a lot of it goes to india that impacts their revenue base but they are standing from a
12:04very
12:04positive platform a pool of money that they can deploy the gulf countries and the gulf economies will
12:11not remain the same as we know and knew them prior to the war they're going to be far more
12:18self-reliant they will build the local economies and localization and they're going to take this
12:24crisis this war as a lesson for them to be far more diversified within the geographical mix and also
12:33to look at india as a point of relationship and link of strategic nature coming into the future india in
12:43just a bit but since you're talking about um uh resilience on straight of hormuz uh let's talk
12:50about that in a prolonged standoff uh who has the stronger economic hand iran's disruption threat or the
12:57gulf's resilience and also diversification
13:03now i think that the gulf is going to withstand all this quite well
13:08and if you look at iran iran from a strategic standpoint has been majorly impacted we have
13:16seen that most of their infrastructure has been affected water oil electricity and if the war continues
13:26iran iran will look very different and far far more impacted than any other gulf nation having said that
13:35yes they can unleash missiles and rockets to the gulf countries but the gulf countries have more
13:42debt and more wealth than iran remember also that iran is functioning from many years of sanctions and
13:51they too need the oil revenue they too need to be part of a global economy yes they have links
13:58with china
13:58and india yes they can export today oil from the straits of hormuz to india to china but notwithstanding
14:06that the localization efforts of the iranians have not been that great the local economy the iranian
14:13economy has been suffering from huge inflation huge currency weakness and we all know that when you have
14:21inflation and currency weakness that doesn't last for too long in terms of the negative effects and your
14:29people are majorly impacted so i don't think over the long term iran can withstand this okay our gulf
14:36and international markets potentially underpricing the tail risks to tourism foreign investment and also
14:42business confidence and those who may be planning in the gcc the overall macro fiscal
14:51no doubt nobody can deny that iran has shown its strength its teeth and for that reason there has to
15:00be a negotiated settlement and for that reason the us today has shared a 15 point agreement and there has
15:07to be some kind of reconciliation for the opening of the straits of hormuz there is no doubt in mind
15:14that the battle might have been won by the us but the war on the strategic side has been lost
15:23and we need
15:25to see at the global repercussions that this is creating for everyone and certainly the straits of
15:32hormuz show to everybody how important it is for global trade and also how important energy is because
15:40we've taken out from the global energy market 20 of oil and natural gas and for india and for china
15:48as
15:49well as south korea and japan this is a lifeline this oil that has been lost cannot be easily replaced
15:56there is no oil and despite the drastic measures that the world has taken to release strategic reserves
16:04from the us from the iea from other countries it is still not enough if this war continues
16:12oil is going to rise and oil will remain high for a very long time because we have to replenish
16:20that oil
16:21oil so oil at 60 i think is an impossibility if this war continues oil at 60 dollars a barrel
16:29we might not see it for a very long time since you speak about india and india has managed to
16:34ensure
16:34that some of its uh ships naval ships are able to you know pass through strait of hormuz and that
16:41certainly is a big diplomatic victory for uh indian india can india then place the peacemaker
16:47particularly uh because of its human capital in gulf you're very well said in in the point that uh
16:57the human capital india has been providing strategic human capital throughout the gulf and that will
17:03continue and it's very important i might say that the interlocutors could be india possibly but there
17:10are others like oman there are others who have been doing that for quite some time but india is a
17:17very important bridge and it could be seen as an element of neutrality that brings the two parties
17:25so far i think that india has played it very well and it played its cards its cards very well
17:32in order
17:32to promote indian interests but also as a strategic bridge of trade and advice for the entire gulf population
17:41uh is there a real risk uh that this military buildup is in fact laying the groundwork for a
17:48limited or full scale ground operation or is this primarily signaling to force iran into
17:55concessions at the negotiating table of course i'm talking about the proposal which has been sent by
18:00donald trump well i think i think that one cannot deny that uh this is a tactic that we have
18:08seen in the
18:09past and there is an element of taco uh for president trump to chicken out and that is a possibility
18:17but
18:17at the same time we have seen that the american side president trump does work in parallel environments
18:25and scenarios so it could be that today he's presenting the 15 uh point plan for negotiations and it could
18:35be
18:35that in parallel they're going to deploy special forces troops for a limited uh boots on the ground
18:43campaign and it could be done in the following way it could be that come friday saturday there is no
18:50response from the iranian side uh president trump in america says well i've offered them something and
18:56nothing has eventuated so i'm going to deploy forces because i have to open the straits of hormuz
19:02and i'm going to take action and action begins over the weekend and then we come back on monday
19:08because the weekend is the preferred option for heightened activity because markets are shot so we
19:16will see the effect on monday oil spikes it goes from 89 wti or 98 brent to 130 and 40
19:26and then we continue
19:27far more in that uh limelight rather than negotiating and then we go back remember also that we are in
19:37a
19:37prisons dilemma in many ways you need to escalate in order to negotiate and it could be that this is
19:44one
19:45tactic where president trump is using to negotiate yet we hear that the iranians are not so welcoming on
19:53the negotiating table i think the next two days are very crucial but as you said it could be a
19:59tactic
20:00to enforce greater escalatory power on the ground that brings me to my last question on the show
20:07tonight is energy security the real battlefield here because is the price of the oil which is
20:13deciding the trajectory and the direction of this war
20:17definitely energy security is at the crux of the matter because once this the straits were shut
20:25immediately markets reacted before during the initial campaign uh the impact on the global economy was
20:34far less observable markets yes got impacted oil went up but all didn't spike to 120 and that was an
20:44issue and today we're seeing that energy and trade flows play a crucial part for all of this india would
20:52not be asking questions where is my oil where am i buying oil and luckily india has an excellent
20:59relationship with russia and they're able to get uh russian oil today which was unsanctioned so another
21:06great beneficiary is russia today russia today is benefiting into the tune of 250 million
21:14they're selling a lot of their oil to india and other asian countries but predominantly india so at the
21:22crux at the center of all this is yet again energy we are not so delinked from energy we're still
21:30dependent on energy and the gulf is important for that as well as russia and other hydrocarbon producing
21:38countries all right dr john is joining us there from riyadh thank you so much for sharing your views
21:46uh we are putting out that interview on our website and also on the youtube channel
21:51of course tomorrow will be another day in this war which has now entered
21:56day 24 thanks so much for watching we'll track the story very very close
22:00you
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