00:00掌握时事先机 Unify Business企业及互联网助力企业全面腾飞
00:07中东战争爆发之后伊朗扬言封锁霍尔木兹海峡
00:12不仅让全球石油天然气等能源供应面临危机
00:13那另一场危机也在悄然酝酿
00:22根据联合国统计全球大约三分之一的化肥海运贸易都需要经由霍尔木兹海峡来运输
00:26自从伊朗战争爆发之后那航运几乎停摆
00:30多艘的船只在霍尔木兹海峡内或周边遇袭
00:35导致化肥供应链中断以及原料短缺推高了成本
00:38恐怕会冲击全球的农作物产量
00:42现在北半球农民正开始大规模的田间作业的春季
00:47那同时南半球的农民则忙着在冬季来临之前采收农作物
00:53而他们的工作正值伊朗战争导致基本化肥产品供应严重受限
00:57这也引发了农作物涨价的担忧
01:01担忧说这也会引发潜在的粮食危机
01:07根据牛津经济研究院旗下Alpine Micro发布的最新报告指出
01:09自战争爆发以来
01:16农业生产当中不可或缺的核心养分尿素和安肥的价格
01:17各涨了大约50%和20% 那其他像是甲肥和柳黄呢 也开始涨价了
01:26受伊朗战争影响 肥料的价格也大幅上涨
01:32尤其发展中国家的农民很可能最先承受这波经济压力
01:34进而威胁到他们的收成和生计
01:39像在非洲肯尼亚非常依赖进口肥料的国家
01:40已经率先感受到涨价带来的冲击
01:45有部分商家直言肥料的价格几乎每天都在上涨
01:49甚至有农民夸张地说现在是有钱也买不到肥料
01:54大家是有钱也买不到肥料
01:56If you have a baby, you will be able to get it.
02:00You can get it.
02:02No matter what you want,
02:03you can get it.
02:04When you get the baby,
02:06you will be able to get it.
02:08Then you can get it.
02:12After you get it.
02:14The first day,
02:15the first day,
02:16the second day,
02:18the second day,
02:24flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which is now at a virtual standstill.
02:30And some 25% of the world's supply comes through this channel.
02:35This is a major risk to countries such like Somalia and Kenya, which depend on Gulf imports
02:43of their fertilizers.
02:44A reduction in fertilizers supply will increase input costs for farmers, and in turn that
02:49will mean lower farming yields overall.
02:55The Strait of Hormuz
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