00:00Intro, hook. Pay growth in the UK has slowed down to its lowest level in more than five years,
00:05raising fresh concerns about the strength of the economy and the job market.
00:10Main update. According to the latest official data, average earnings, excluding bonuses,
00:16increased by 3.8% in the three months from November to January. This is lower than the
00:22previous growth rate of 4.2%, showing that wage increases are losing momentum. At the same time,
00:28the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2%, which is close to a five-year high.
00:34However, there was a small positive sign, as the number of people on payrolls increased slightly
00:40last month. Economic context. These figures come just before the Bank of England is expected to
00:46announce its latest decision on interest rates. Experts believe that borrowing costs will likely
00:52remain unchanged for now. Even though wage growth is slowing, earnings are still rising faster than
00:58inflation. Inflation dropped to around 3% in January, giving some relief to households.
01:04Global impact. However, rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving the US,
01:10Israel and Iran, are pushing up fuel and energy prices. This could cause inflation to increase
01:17again in the coming months. Because of this uncertainty, expectations of an interest rate cut
01:22have now faded. Air expert opinions. Economists suggest that policy makers are becoming more
01:28cautious, instead of cutting rates. They may keep them higher for longer to control inflation risks.
01:34They also warn that weak demand for workers could limit future pay increases. This means employees
01:40may have less power to negotiate higher wages. Labor market insight. Recent data shows that job vacancies
01:46have remained mostly stable, although there has been a slight decline. Meanwhile, payroll employment
01:53has increased modestly, indicating that the job market is not worsening rapidly, but it is still
01:58fragile. Conclusion. Overall, while there are small signs of recovery, the UK labour market remains weak.
02:06Rising energy costs and global uncertainty could put more pressure on businesses, potentially leading
02:11to fewer jobs in the near future.
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