00:00A decommissioned NASA satellite is expected to make an uncontrolled return to Earth this week,
00:04raising a small possibility that fragments could survive the fiery descent through the atmosphere.
00:10The spacecraft, known as Van Allen Pro Bay, weighs approximately 1,323 pounds,
00:16and is predicted to reenter Earth's atmosphere around 7.45 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday,
00:22according to forecasts from the U.S. Space Force.
00:25While the reentry will occur without direct control from NASA,
00:28scientists say most of the satellite is likely to burn up as it plunges through the atmosphere at high speed.
00:34NASA officials explained that although the majority of the probe will disintegrate due to extreme heat,
00:39some components may survive the descent and reach the ground.
00:43Despite that possibility, the agency emphasized that the overall danger of people on Earth remains extremely low.
00:51The risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is low, approximately 1 in 4,200.
00:56NASA said in a statement,
00:58NASA and Space Force will continue to monitor the reentry and update predictions.
01:03Space debris reentries are common.
01:05The return of defunct satellites and other space hardware is not unusual.
01:10According to the European Space Agency,
01:13retired satellites, rocket fragments, and small pieces of orbital debris
01:17reenter Earth's atmosphere almost every day.
01:20In most cases, these objects burn up harmlessly before reaching the surface.
01:26Even when debris survives, the likelihood of damage is small because about 71% of Earth's surface is covered by
01:32oceans,
01:33meaning most falling debris lands far from populated areas.
01:36However, predicting the exact time and location of an uncontrolled reentry remains difficult.
01:43Atmospheric conditions, space weather, and the satellite's changing orbit can all affect when and where it will fall.
01:50The current prediction from the Space Force carries an uncertainty window of plus or minus 24 hours.
01:56Mission to Study Earth's Radiation Belts
01:58Van Allen Probe A was launched on August 30, 2012, alongside its twin spacecraft, Van Allen Probe B.
02:06The mission was designed to explore and study Earth's Van Allen Radiation Belts,
02:10massive donut-shaped zones of high-energy particles trapped by the planet's magnetic field.
02:15These radiation belts play a critical role in protecting Earth.
02:20They help shield the planet from solar storms, cosmic radiation, and streams of charged particles known as solar wind.
02:27Without them, intense radiation from the sun could damage satellites in orbit, threaten human health,
02:33and disrupt electrical infrastructure on the ground.
02:36However, astronauts traveling beyond Earth must pass through these radiation belts,
02:40exposing them to potentially harmful radiation.
02:44The twin probes help scientists gain a deeper understanding of how these belts behave and evolve.
02:49During the mission, researchers made several key discoveries,
02:53including the identification of a temporary third radiation belt
02:56that forms during periods of intense solar activity.
02:59The mission ended in 2019.
03:02Both spacecraft continued operating until 2019, when they eventually ran out of fuel.
03:09NASA officially ended the mission after that, leaving the probes to slowly drift in orbit.
03:15Initially, scientists expected the satellites to remain in orbit until around 2034.
03:20But in recent years, increased solar activity has caused Earth's atmosphere to expand slightly,
03:26creating more drag on orbiting spacecraft.
03:29This additional atmospheric resistance has gradually pulled Van Allen Probe closer to Earth,
03:34leading to its earlier-than-expected re-entry.
03:37Its twin satellite, Van Allen Probe-B, is not expected to re-enter the atmosphere before 2030.
03:49Tens of thousands of pieces of discarded spacecraft and rocket hardware,
03:54along with millions of smaller fragments, now orbit the Earth,
03:57particularly in low-Earth orbit, where many communications and GPS satellites operate.
04:02These objects travel at speeds of up to 18,000 miles per hour,
04:07posing potential collision risks to operational satellites,
04:10and even astronauts aboard the International Space Station.
04:14As space launches become more frequent,
04:16scientists and space agencies are increasingly focused on developing strategies to track,
04:21manage, and reduce orbital debris to protect future missions
04:24and maintain safe operations in space.
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