00:00दो कि यह नमस्कार नहुराजीब और मेरे साथ जूळाआ शेनकर शरमा जो संस्थापक हैं
00:08बाद बाद से तक बाद हुए दो अगांे ह erosion फिर्म से पहले आपकी एक थीम बिलकुल सही बैटी और
00:25एक थीम thế
00:26पर भी at पूछना है कि आगे क्या रहेगा उसमें लेकिन
00:30We are talking about the budget and the Trump Tariff.
00:35The two things are the same.
00:37The Trump Tariff is the same.
00:41The Trump Tariff is the same.
00:42The Trump Tariff is the same.
00:44But in the past, the 11th century, you said Trump's what is going on.
00:51We will also explain the same.
00:53The first is the budget.
00:55The budget is the biggest thing.
01:04We will also talk about the people in the U.S.
01:09This is something that they are now saying.
01:11But we would say it was just a lot.
01:15We were saying that all the bills were all right.
01:17And we can comment on social media,
01:21Our intent is going to be sent by LAUGHTER.
01:28foreign
01:31foreign
01:32foreign
01:57I have been a trader for a very long time.
02:00I don't trade now.
02:01I don't do it, but in 2019, I was very active in trading.
02:05After that, I saw that my age is now in mid-40s and I don't have the risk-taking capacity
02:15that I was in the earlier days.
02:19So, I got it.
02:21So, it's not that I'm against trading.
02:26It doesn't need anyone to do it.
02:38It doesn't need anyone to do it.
02:57I don't know.
03:10I don't know.
03:14I don't know.
03:50I don't know.
03:53I don't know.
04:09I don't know.
04:17I don't know.
04:59I don't know.
05:26I don't know.
05:27I don't know.
05:27I don't know.
05:28I don't know.
05:36I don't know.
05:39I don't know.
05:46I don't know.
06:01I don't know.
06:04I don't know.
06:11I don't know.
06:23I don't know.
06:25I don't know.
06:35I don't know.
06:37I don't know.
06:39I don't know.
06:42I don't know.
06:54I don't know.
07:06I don't know.
07:11I don't know.
07:13I don't know.
07:16I don't know.
07:18I don't know.
07:20I don't know.
07:24I don't know.
07:24It doesn't matter if it's few weeks that stays up.
07:26They leave and go against the island.
07:29What important is it?
07:30Gates all along.
07:31What?
07:32Which plant and machinery are being done元isch
07:35To whom?
07:35Which make us made money?
07:36Whose move are made.
07:37What?
07:38Willkgreed
07:41Will gain gain.
07:44Will, riches.
07:47We really need a long-term capital.
07:51We need bonefidelity badges.
07:53the California retirement fund, pension funds, we need capital. We don't need capital.
08:02We don't need capital. You must leave India. Let me finish.
08:07Let me finish. This is India's very big risk. If you put 500 million or 1 billion,
08:16if you put 15 billion, 25 billion, it's such a big loss of forex in India,
08:22it's not just our capital account. It's a big strain.
08:28The balance of payments is a big strain.
08:30It's such a big loss of capital.
08:34The final point is tax-free.
08:38There are no income tax capital gains.
08:40It's a big loss of capital gains.
08:44What do you have to do with high-frequency traders?
08:50I have no doubt about it.
08:54But I just wanted to know that
08:56whether it's really an investment,
08:58or not?
09:00I don't know why it's a big loss.
09:05I don't know why it's a big issue.
09:07I would consider this as a big loss for the union.
09:10And for the future,
09:11I should have the relationship with the bank in the future.
09:19it's important.
09:20The Pudentials will be a benefit.
09:24Of course,
09:24derived equity market
09:27हमने देखा कि अब यह जो derived है
09:30जो derivative है वो equity market के
09:32कई गुणा बन गया
09:35तो इसका
09:36कोई logic नहीं है
09:38अब tail is now wagging the dog
09:40the tail has become bigger than the dog
09:42we cannot allow this to happen
09:44so इस tail को एक tail
09:46की ही level पे लाना पड़ेगा
09:48इसको dog के ऊपर हावी हो जाए
09:50जैसे रहा हुआ था यह गलत है
09:54हम budget की बात कर रहे थे तो
09:56budget में इसके अलावा और आपको
09:58क्या अच्छा लगा क्या बुरा लगा
10:01मतलब steady budget था साब
10:03इसके लिए आप कोई
10:04अच्छा बुरे की बात नहीं है
10:06capex को उन्होंने बढ़ाया है
10:08nominal GDP growth को 10%
10:10रखा है
10:12इस सब चीज़े मोटा मोटी expected
10:14थी अब सवाल है कि
10:15nominal GDP growth 10% से भारत को
10:18वो growth मिलेगा
10:20जो हमें चाहिए
10:22सवाल वो है
10:23and वो मुझे लगता नहीं कि
10:2610 का 15% हो सकता है nominal GDP growth
10:29तो ultimately
10:30हमारे stock market earnings
10:31सारी चीज़े nominal पे चलती है
10:33nominal इतना लो है 8-9%
10:35फिलाल और target है 10%
10:37उससे कोई खास बहुत बड़ा
10:39effect corporate earnings में नहीं आने वाला है
10:41तो उस sense में budget एक study
10:43study यह था
10:45उसमें कोई अगर लोग यह expect कर रहे थे
10:47उमीद कर रहे थे
10:49आशा कर रहे थे कि
10:51capital gains tax कर जाएंगे
10:53यह हो जाएंगे
10:54मैंने शायद आपके पिछली बारी show में भी
10:57बात की थी यह कई और कितने वह याद नहीं के
10:59Indian budget अब इतना stock market के तरफ
11:03exposed है in terms of stock market related taxation
11:07चाहे वो long term capital gains हो, short term capital gains हो,
11:10STT हो, dividend tax हो
11:12कि अब वो मेरे ख्याल से अब इतना बड़ा part हो गया कि उसमें आपको रियायत और कटौकी की उमीद
11:18नहीं करनी चाहिए
11:19अब आप कहेंगे कि साहब वो तो एक जुआ है एक साल आएगा एक साल नहीं आएगा बिल्कुल सही बात
11:25है
11:25यह जुआ है और कोई government की exchequer अगर stock market को पर चल रही हो तो मैं as it
11:31is
11:31जी मुझे वो वो चीज बहुत खराब लगती है और मैंने यह लास्ट ये बात कहीं थी बजट के जस्ट
11:35बात इतने बी इंटर्व्यूस हुए थे
11:37कि stock marketification of जो national fiscal बनाया गया है वो long term बहुत ही एक let's say skewness हो
11:44गया
11:45for stock market and मैं उस चीज के खिलाब तो अगर लोग यह उमीद कर रहे दे कि उसके चलते
11:51अब यह कम हो जाएगा tax rate capital
11:53gains पे तो वो wishful thinking थी होना ही नहीं है तो वो अगर कम होगा तो fiscal deficit बढ़
11:59जाएगा and government बहुत इस
12:01पर है कि fiscal deficit नहीं बढ़ना चाहिए तो एक steady budget था market को फिलाल frankly मुझे लगता है
12:08कि काफी बड़ा
12:08steroid shot चाहिए इस budget में कम से कब वो steroid shot नहीं लेकिन क्या वो steroid shot क्या Trump
12:18tariff के घटने के
12:20चलते मिलेगा या नहीं मिल रहा है कौन सा tariff घटा है राजीव मुझे बताइए शायद मैं ज्यादा न्यूस देखता
12:27नहीं हो टारिफ कुल घटे है क्या पचास था अठारा हो गया
12:34पहले क्या था उसके पहले जिरो पॉइंट लगवाग तीन प्रतिशत के आसपास था तो इसे साथ तो मतलब मेरी बुखार
12:49थी पहले
12:4997-98 वो बढ़के हो गई 110 और अब घटके हो गया 104 तो अब स्वस्थ हो गया क्या
13:01लेकिन ये ट्रम टारिफ का बुखार सारी दुनिया पर है ना मतलब पहले बाकी लोग भी ऐसे ही थे अब
13:07जितना टारिफ हमारे उपर है उससे कम बहुत शायद ही दो-चार उनके बहुत घनेश्ट जो है उनके उपर है
13:14यूके बगेर है
13:17विलकुल सही बात है तो पहले बात है कि ऐसा कोई कम नहीं हुआ है पिछले चारे से 6 गुना
13:23ज्यादा है नंबर वन पॉइंट बहुत इंपॉर्टेंट पॉइंट है निर्याद करतें यूएस को वह बहुत की बेसिक बूल्ट होते हैं
13:32फार्मसूटिकल को आप शोड़ दे
13:44सब चीज़ें बेचते हैं जो कि कोई और देश बड़े असानी से और सस्ते में दे सकता है यूसी ऐसा
13:51कोई हमारे पास टेक्निलोजिकल एज नहीं है कि हम वह सीज़े एक्सपोर्ट कर रहे हैं जैसे चाइना के ऊपर सारी
13:59चीज़ें टल गई है होल्ड कर रखी गई है हमार
14:08लार्जेस ट्रेट सर्प्लस है अगेंस्ट अमेरिका सारे देशों में से करेक्ट 40-45 बिलियन डॉलर साल का किसी के अनुमान
14:19में आप अपनी अनुमान को देते मेरे को आपको क्या लगता है ये ट्रेट सर्प्लस यही फिगर रहेगा या घटेगा
14:24या बढ़ेगा या बढ�
14:38ले लेंगे वहां से या तो यह एक तरह से रिप्लेस्मेंट होगा क्या जीज़ आदि यह तेल की ही बात
14:47है अगर तेल हमें अमेरिका से सस्ता मिलता है और हम वहां से ले लेंगे हैं
14:55foreign
15:33foreign
15:41foreign
15:43foreign
15:44foreign
15:51foreign
15:56foreign
16:01foreign
16:05foreign
16:06You should buy an import basis because of this commitment that you have to buy the gold from the oil.
16:13That commitment is intended to replace my opinion.
16:19That is intended.
16:20I am saying that you are going to export and do something without a small amount of oil.
16:26What does America do to get the oil from 2 years later?
16:29You are supposed to have a hundred billion years to buy and have a hundred billion.
16:34That's something that you don't like, don't.
16:39America is going to evaluate us like a teacher evaluating student.
16:47If you have said intent and that you have taken the intent and that you have basically
16:52any input from it, you will not be able to evaluate us like a teacher evaluating student.
17:04we have to be practical reality is that
17:09we have to be practical reality is that
17:14we have to be practical reality is that
17:29we have to be practical reality is that
17:36meaningless
17:37in many years
17:43the export growth of america is 57% which is more or less the depreciation of the rupee
17:53so suddenly what happens is that your export will be 20-25% grow
17:59because in tariffs we have to say that
18:02we have to be on parity in other countries
18:04we have to be on parity
18:05we have to be on parity
18:07we have to be on parity
18:18foreign
18:54I don't know I don't know
19:00I don't know
19:12reverse not going in 2020, so it means what is this?
19:15So, it's very fast. Where do you talk about slowness?
19:18I'm going to ask 8 percent, I'm not happy yet, but you are not?
19:22Yes.
19:25So, I want to understand slowness.
19:29Why do you want me to leave?
19:31I'm saying this.
19:33You don't want me to say that.
19:35You don't want to say that.
19:36What is this?
19:38I want to say that.
19:50foreign
19:52foreign
19:54foreign
19:57is
19:59okay
19:59so
19:59I
20:00don't
20:01I
20:01don't
20:02I
20:06don't
20:13I
20:19don't
20:32I
20:34don't
20:34I
20:36don't
20:38I
20:39don't
20:40I
20:44don't
20:45I
20:49don't
20:51I
20:54don't
20:55don't
20:56I
20:57don't
20:57I
20:57don't
20:57I
21:01don't
21:02I
21:04mean
21:05I
21:05don't
21:05I
21:06don't
21:07I
21:07don't
21:08I
21:08don't
21:09don't
21:15don't
21:21I
21:22I
21:28don't
21:30I
21:33don't
21:36I
21:37don't
21:38I
21:46don't
21:47I
21:49don't
21:51do
21:51do
21:51I
21:51I don't know if you want to keep the stock market or keep the people happy.
21:57I don't know if I don't want to keep the stock market.
21:59I don't know if I don't want to keep the stock market.
22:04They will figure out some method, but it's a dilemma.
22:07What does it mean to me?
22:12What does it mean to me?
22:14It means that if you want to keep the stock market,
22:18I don't know if you want to keep the stock market.
22:28I don't know if you want to keep the stock market.
22:50I don't know if you want to keep the stock market.
22:54I don't know if you want to keep the stock market.
23:07I don't know if you want to keep the stock market.
23:47I don't know if you want to keep the stock market.
24:06I don't know if you want to keep the stock market.
24:26I don't know if you want to keep the stock market.
24:39I don't know if you want to keep the stock market.
24:47I don't know if you want to keep the stock market.
25:06We don't know if you want to keep the stock market.
25:20foreign
25:23foreign
25:24foreign
25:24foreign
25:25and all the old children and
25:27chewing gum and mobile phone
25:28are doing this kind of
25:29loan and giving people to this kind of
25:33sex appeal. There is no sex appeal in today's world.
25:35Today's world needs tech.
25:36Today's world needs something new.
25:38These are old horses.
25:39They were good horses.
25:40We had a lot of them.
25:42But now we have to put these horses
25:44in a stable time as investors.
25:47And these horses
25:48will not be able to win in the next Derby.
25:51And that's why we are here.
25:53India by the way
25:55India is just India specific.
25:59The last year, the last year,
26:03the last year, the last year,
26:04the global bear market.
26:05This is only our bear market.
26:08And the second one, US.
26:09The other global markets,
26:12tremendous bull market.
26:1450 percent, 70 percent South Korea.
26:17That means every week.
26:18Last month South Korea,
26:1926 percent.
26:2121 months in Brazil,
26:2370 percent of the 17 in one month.
26:26Now, we have our television channels,
26:29we have not heard of this.
26:30We have our papers.
26:31We have not heard of this.
26:33We have not heard of this.
26:47But we have global investor.
26:56market market.
26:56There are no index.
26:58But index people are very low.
27:01They are largely,
27:01they are going to go to average.
27:04So, there is a global market
27:0530 percent of the last year.
27:07India, average was down 30 percent.
27:10On the average.
27:11So, minus 60 percent of bear market.
27:13That is the most important point to see.
27:14Now, that will happen to be minus 50 percent of India.
27:17But globally, we are still lagging substantially.
27:21That is the main important point to see.
27:23And our currency is the weakest currency.
27:26I have read an article two weeks ago.
27:29It is an outlier currency.
27:32Even the fall-to-currency, Brazilian, Real,
27:35they are all strengthened with dollars.
27:37The dollar is all weak with us.
27:39And we are weak with dollars.
27:41Well, as you can see,
27:42you have to use more than us.
27:45I am sorry.
27:45I am sorry.
27:46So, I am sorry?
27:46Well, I have to give you more,
27:48I have to talk to you about.
27:49It's very scary.
27:50Now, I have to talk to you about the future.
27:57Because of the economic and economic and economic and economic,
27:58just as a matter of the foreign community from China,
27:59you are doing good?
28:01No.
28:02That is the economic and economic development.
28:03You have a political and economic development for investors.
28:06Well, it was very difficult to think about the innovation.
28:33I don't think
29:05I don't think
29:12I don't think
29:14I don't think
29:36I don't think
29:39I don't think
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