- 7 minutes ago
आज के शेयर बाजार में क्या हो रहा है? निफ्टी और बैंक निफ्टी किस दिशा में बढ़ रहे हैं? इस लाइव मार्केट एनालिसिस में हम बाजार की हर छोटी-बड़ी मूवमेंट को समझेंगे। हमारे खास मेहमान Shomesh Kumar आज बताएंगे महत्वपूर्ण लेवल्स, ट्रेडिंग रणनीति, और किन स्टॉक्स में आज बड़ा मौका बन सकता है। इस लाइव सेशन में निवेशकों के हर सवाल का विशेषज्ञों द्वारा जवाब दिया जाएगा। चाहे आप डे-ट्रेडर हों या लॉन्ग-टर्म निवेशक, यह विश्लेषण आपके लिए बेहद उपयोगी है। जुड़े रहें और मार्केट की ताज़ा अपडेट्स पाएं।
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शेयर बाजार में निवेश और ट्रेडिंग जोखिम के अधीन होते हैं। सही जानकारी, उचित विश्लेषण और डिसिप्लिन के बिना लिए गए निर्णय नुकसान का कारण बन सकते हैं। इसी उद्देश्य से हम आपके लिए आयोजित कर रहे हैं Stock Market Weekly Analysis Webinar, जहाँ बाजार की चाल को शैक्षिक (Educational) उद्देश्य से समझाया जाएगा।
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शेयर बाजार और म्यूचुअल फंड्स की आसान भाषा में समझ चाहते हैं?
यहाँ पाएँ —
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शेयर बाजार में निवेश और ट्रेडिंग जोखिम के अधीन होते हैं। सही जानकारी, उचित विश्लेषण और डिसिप्लिन के बिना लिए गए निर्णय नुकसान का कारण बन सकते हैं। इसी उद्देश्य से हम आपके लिए आयोजित कर रहे हैं Stock Market Weekly Analysis Webinar, जहाँ बाजार की चाल को शैक्षिक (Educational) उद्देश्य से समझाया जाएगा।
यह पूरी तरह मार्केट अवेयरनेस और नॉलेज शेयरिंग के लिए है। इसमें दी जाने वाली जानकारी किसी भी प्रकार की Buy/Sell/Hold Recommendation, Assured Return, या Investment Advice नहीं होगी।
Category
📚
LearningTranscript
00:00Hello, I'm Rajeev and I'm Bazar Vichlashak, Shomesh Kumar.
00:04Shomesh, it's very nice to have you.
00:07Bazar, I'm today a lot of fun.
00:10In the beginning of the day, there is a lot of fun.
00:14But in the end of the day, Bazar has a lot of fun.
00:19So this whole thing is going to be understood.
00:21We will be able to understand the question of the question.
00:24Because today is the question of the question of the question in our webinar.
00:29But in the beginning of the day, we have seen a lot of fun.
00:39And we have seen a lot of fun.
00:44So what do you think?
00:46Do you think Bazar has a lot of fun or not?
00:51I can't say that there is a possibility of 24,900 to 24,750.
01:04But in this range, there is a possibility of support.
01:07But the problem is that the trend is down.
01:10And if the trend is down, then we can't do it.
01:16But in the end, you have a lot of fun.
01:21Can you see that what we find a lot of fun?
01:25Yeah.
01:26So point number one is that the possibility is possible.
01:35Point number two is that the reversal of confirmation is not possible.
01:49So the answer is that the trend is down and the possibility is possible.
01:56But there is no confidence until the reversal is confirmed.
02:00This is the case of Bank Nifty's breakdown.
02:04So there is a little bit of a problem.
02:08In January, there was a couple of 15 days in the market.
02:12There was a follow-up, high-try, which the market broke.
02:17So now there is no confidence in the market.
02:23If you look at this, if you look at this,
02:26if you look at this,
02:27if you look at this,
02:29you will see that.
02:31foreign
02:49foreign
02:57foreign
03:01foreign
03:08foreign
03:15foreign
03:20foreign
03:25foreign
03:30trade कभी भी oversold हो सकता है तो एक side यह भी trade का हो सकता है कि आज
03:35का जो low है वो stop loss और minor bounce के लिए trade किया जाए ऐसा sustainable
03:41bounce यहां से नहीं कह सकते हैं और minor bounce कहां तक possible है
03:46तो 100 यह में और उसके पास से supply है तो minor bounce 25,500 से
03:54लिए के 25,650 यह रेंज तक के minor bounce हो सकते हैं लेकिन
04:01sustain करेगा कि नहीं नहीं मतलब chances कम रहते हैं इतना sharp
04:06fall होने के बाद आज का fall तो mostly मेरे हिसाब से margin calls
04:10trigger होने का fall रहा है जिसके कारण यह लट लिखी रही है
04:13real fall जो था वो कल था yesterday और आज उसका follow through था follow
04:19through because of the margin तो अगर margin squeeze और आज के तारीक में brokers
04:23बहुत जल्दी margin इकठा करते हैं एक या दो दिन उससे ज़्यादा
04:27समय लगाते नहीं है तो आज और कल में यह भी margin call वाली
04:31चीज खत्म हो जानी चाहिए और अगर genuine selling है तो उसके बाद फिर से
04:35selling reinstate हो जाएगी बजार में तो मेरे अंदज ऐसा ही रहेगा कि आज का लो अगर
04:44रह गया तो थोड़ा बहुत 25500 with a deviation of 150 points short covering हो
04:52सकती है और फिर में भी मार्केट फिर से लो को टेस्ट करें consolidate करें यह चलेगा और यह अगर
04:59budget तक खिज गया तो चुकि हमारे पास impending event है तो budget तक खिज गया तो फिर देखिए देखिए अगर
05:06budget के कारण कुछ होता है तो यह market इतनी तेजी से गिरा क्यों कल को world market यह main
05:14current मुझे लगता नहीं है अतना genuine है बट गिरा तो ग्लोबल मार्केट सेल आफ के कारण ही है जी बिलकुल तो वैश्विक
05:26बाजारों में गिरावट है उस पर भी ध्यान देंगे लेकिन पहले जड़ा मिट कैप स्मॉल कैप को देखिए आज जहां अंत में हमें सेंसेक्स और नेफ्टी काफिया तक संभले हुए देखे नीचे से अंत में गिरावट बहुत हल्की रह गई एक तिहाई फिजडी के �
05:56अंत में लगभग एक प्रतिशत के आसपास की गरावट इसमें बनी रही अलांकि नीचे से यह भी संभला है तो जो एक आप कह सकते हैं कि नीचे कहीं सपोर्ट मिलना या जो आप कहने कि मार्जिन कॉल ट्रिगर्स हो रहे थे जैसे उनका दबाव कम हुआ होगा वैसे बा�
06:26काफी महत्वपूर्ण रह सकता है जिसमें शाइद यह क्लियर हो कि गिरावट आगे और बढ़नी है या फिर कहीं पर एक सहारा मिलेगा वापस एक उपर की चाल बनेगी इंडिकेटर सेटप एक्शली मेड़ कैप से ही बनेगा स्मॉल कैप से इंडिकेटर सेटप बन नहीं
06:56मेड़का का रिवर्सल नहीं होनिका कारणर्ट विस्माइब करणिंफल है यहां पर फिलन को फैसे यह तो निए के इसे नहीं किया लेकिन लांग जए जाना नहीं किया सब्सक्राइब कर बंस्तों कर तो यह
07:15I am mostly up the cash market me cut you know or instead of the index management be
07:21used to work with index management was a sense of making me a small cap
07:27it's not enough to do so index could be a big time
07:34do not think that there is a lot of time in the future.
07:41I think that this is a very difficult decision.
07:47I think that this is a very difficult decision.
07:51I think that this is a very difficult decision.
07:56by
07:59the
08:03process of
08:08the
08:11process of
08:16the
08:19process of
08:22It is made by the company, so if it's been a month, then we will have monthly expiry.
08:32Then we will have a budget session on February Sunday.
08:37Very interesting events.
08:43Our market is not that its not a part of our individual reason.
08:48foreign
09:02foreign
09:16is not possible. For example, if you have a profit, if you have a profit carry, then
09:23you don't have a profit. But if you have a position cut or a loss cut, then you have a long
09:30side to go for a new price. But you have to go on my hand, margin call or loss. So
09:38then you have to go on your side, you have to go on your side. So if you have a profit,
09:46then you have to go on your side and make sure you have to go on your side. So you have
09:58a profit. It's not worth it. But it's not worth it. So you have to go on your side,
10:03and earnings are good but there are no comforting earnings
10:08and this year is the financial cost of course.
10:11This is the financial cost of course.
10:13The market is also not the same.
10:15So, this is the whole problem.
10:18I think that mid-march to mid-march
10:20is either lacklustre or more correction.
10:25And then mid-march,
10:28as it started in October 2021,
10:33September 2021, 2023,
10:36that would be the same.
10:38This situation would be the same.
10:41Yes, absolutely.
10:44If the banking sector is banking and IT,
10:49the banking sector has been the same as the market.
10:54It has been the same as the market.
10:57It has been the same.
10:59It has been the same as the market.
11:01It has been the same as the market.
11:04It has been the same as the market.
11:07It has been the same as the market.
11:09It has been the same as the market.
11:20foreign
11:24foreign
11:32foreign
11:34foreign
11:48the structure is weak, but if we look at the support of 57,800, which is a trend line
11:58support.
11:59Then we evaluate that.
12:01The simple thing is that when the trend is down, then we can fight.
12:06Then we have to wait if support emerges and then the trend is reversal.
12:11So, for the moment, the trend is breaking down.
12:19Closing basis is not, but intraday basis is not.
12:25The chance of the bottom is retesting.
12:32Without bottom retesting, the market will go up.
12:37The market is cyclicality.
12:43The bottom cut retest, it seems that it should be true.
12:48This is the case of banking.
12:54What are you seeing in the IT sector?
12:58The market you can see here, the above the market brought it short.
13:05This has been very good rebound.
13:08The intersection main reserve is not good at the suburb to reduce.
13:10The pre-clebanctoral relativist 이자 This is June 27,500.
13:11If you things in the IT sector would be close,
13:16then there will even be a big pressure on the capital risk.
13:19पे पहले इस निफटी पे इंडेक्स प्रिशर नहीं डाले बेंकिंग इंडेक्स अभी तक ठीक है, 37500 के नीचे लोज हुआ, तो फिर यह पर दर निफटी पे भी प्रिशर डाले गांगे अगर कि यह आईटी सेक्टर का रुजहान, लेकिन इस हफ्ते आपको थोड़ा सा जो
13:49foreign
14:17interest to buy or reason why not to buy.
14:22This is why the market is not absorbed.
14:28So, the amount of good and good, the amount of good and good, the amount of good.
14:35But when the time is, the market is given.
14:38The market is given.
14:40But in the market, if you say that prices are too late,
14:46the price is not to do that because there is a lot of supply created liquidity issue
14:52volume issue is not a taker in front of us because prices are not to do that but
14:59if you look at the volume not to be excessive but if you look at the persistence of your
15:08do
15:10we
15:12do
15:14do
15:16do
15:20do
15:22do
15:24do
15:26do
15:28do
15:30Yeah, the name is persistent and consistent.
15:39Quarter-on-quarter, slight growth, margin maintained.
15:45Net profit, quarter-on-quarter dip, which is in IT case, market is not good.
15:55but the movement of the stock price is more in sync with the market or the nifty IT index
16:04is not a bad thing but the number of stock price is not a bad thing but the number of stock price is not a bad thing
16:28is
16:58or not quite my own standpoint
17:02you guys
17:04I
17:06I
17:08I
17:10I
17:12I
17:13I
17:14I
17:15I
17:16I
17:17I
17:19I
17:21I
17:23I
17:25I
17:27I
17:29I
17:31I
17:34I
17:36I
17:38my
17:39I
17:41I
17:43I
17:45I
17:47I
17:49I
17:53लेकिन कल की जो गिरावट किया ट्रम्प साहब को ये शेयर बादार का इशारा है कि आप जो कर रहे हैं उससे अमेरिका भी परेशान होने जा रहा है या हो रहा है
18:05मैंने इस पर कुछ सोचा है आप चाहें तो मैं संडे को इलाबोरेट कर दोंगा लेकिन अभी कहेंगे तो मैं एक मिनिट के लिए अपना वियू डाल दूँ क्यों कि कल जो हुआ है ताजा ताजा उससे समझ लेते हैं फिर अपनी सब्ताहिक चर्शा में उस पर बात करेंगे �
18:35कि में चीज क्या लग रहा है कि फिर से जियो पॉलिटिकल डिस्टर्बेंस आ गया है और जियो पॉलिटिकल डिस्टर्बेंस में डर क्या लग रहा है कि जैसे रश्या यूक्रेइन पर्सिस्ट किया जैसे फिर इसरायल हमस हो गया और फिर इंडिया ने पाकिस्तान को मारा
19:05so this scale can be very big and if I remember the right thing I remember the right thing
19:15is that it can be a bad thing. This is a good idea. I have only one point here.
19:25I wish Donald Trump is not in his mental control.
19:34He is mentally unstable.
19:37He is not in his control.
19:42US is a big war.
19:45It can afford a long time.
19:47War looks like a lot.
19:50foreign
19:57foreign
20:04foreign
20:09foreign
20:14foreign
20:17you don't get a big war in a long period of time because it will trigger a financial trouble.
20:26I don't think that Donald Trump can afford a big war on this side.
20:32They may be scared because it feels like they are all broken.
20:38But the US in reality, I don't think that there is a big war on this side.
20:44Venezuela or Cuba, this is a small thing.
20:50But NATO vs NATO, this is a big scale.
20:55Trump will not afford them.
20:57They will impeach them.
21:00This is why I think Donald Trump will disturb the economy,
21:07and he will disturb the volatility.
21:11But my impression is that it is a bad person.
21:17But it is not possible that the US with $38 trillion debt,
21:24it is not possible that the US with a big war can afford.
21:29Without any support from the strategic partner,
21:31allies, it is not possible.
21:33And I think this theory is that there is no big war.
21:39And this theory is not possible.
21:40You will do that.
21:41And I think that the market will be the volatility of one year.
21:43And when the market will be the volatility,
21:46it will settle down.
21:47And then we will again have green candles.
21:48And this will happen in my own situation.
21:50This is my understanding of what happened.
21:53foreign
21:55foreign
22:09foreign
22:15foreign
22:21Greenland पर पहली चीज उन्होंने यह कहिए लेकिन साथ में उन्होंने कहा है कि नहीं नियंत्रण चाहिए और वो इसलिए कि अमेरिका के अलाबा कोई भी देश या देशों का समूह यहां पर साफ तोर पर वो नाटो को ही नाटो के जो बाकी उनके सदसे देश उनके सहयोगी दे�
22:51सब्सक्राइब करने का प्रयास किया है शायद उसकी तरफ उनका इशारा है कि वहीं आप यह दोचार सानिक भेज़ करके आप बिन लाइंड को सुरक्षित कर लेंगे ऐसा नहीं होने वाला है
23:04अब हो सकता है आप इसको अजीब किसम का क्या बोलते हैं जो मैं रिलिशन्शिप निकालने की कोशिश करूँगा मान सकते हैं बट उनको नॉबल पीस प्राइज जी चाहिए था लेकिन मिला सेकेंड हैंड मिला वहां से तो हो सकता है कि उस तरह किसी को इतना परिशान कर द
23:34जाके रख लो लेकिन ग्रीन लैंड वो वार करके नहीं लेंगे मैं यह पॉइंट लाना चाहरा हूं जो कि बहुत ज्यादा डिजास्ट्रेस हो जाएगा इस ग्लोब के लिए वार नहीं हो सकता वार होगा तो यूएस इस नाट इना सिटूइशन तो अफोर्ड लॉंग ब
24:04किट्नैप करके ले आए तो बोलेगा अब ले लिया किट्नैप करके ले लिया तो ग्रीन लैंड इसको दे दो वह ऐसा कुछ हुआ तो हो जकता है बट वार से नहीं हो जिस तरह से उनको पीस प्राइज मिल गया मचैडो ने डर डर के दे दिया कि बही तुम ले के जाओ मु
24:34तुम म�हा जर्य के लाइना यह तो समझना यह है कि अगर यह उठापटक शुड़ हो रही थी
25:03so
25:05we
25:07have
25:09the
25:11the
25:13the
25:15the
25:17the
25:21the
25:23the
25:25the
25:27the
25:29the
25:31the
25:37the
25:39the
25:41the
25:42the
25:45the
25:51unneccessary noises,
25:53if the base is a growth,
25:56then the base is higher.
25:59When the base is higher,
26:01then the rate of growth
26:04is moderate,
26:06or dip,
26:09then the base is higher.
26:11So, this is a corporate earning growth
26:16after the Covid recovery.
26:21So, if your kuarts is higher,
26:26then the price to your earnings growth
26:29should be higher.
26:30And the price to your average will change.
26:34So the price is lower,
26:36then the prices have increased.
26:39Therefore, the market has to either
26:42correct the price or to consolidate.
26:44This is how everything I understand
26:46is higher than the market
26:48the market is higher
26:51I think it's not going to do anything, but it's time to give you your time to restructure your portfolio and be ready to restructure your portfolio.
27:03This is a normal phenomenon.
27:05There is no such thing in the past half of the market.
27:08The market is bad.
27:10When you are in the past half of the market, our market is fast growing, so our economy is fast growing.
27:15But the market can grow our house.
27:19The normalization can be very strong.
27:22If your earnings growth is very good, then the market will be very high.
27:35So, what will happen?
27:36We will see that when we go to the financial year, we will see that the financial year
27:43will turn to the initial growth.
27:48So, we will see that the financial year will be the same as the initial growth of the
27:56APS Growth expected
27:58It means that
28:00Inbuilt upside
28:01It could be
28:02Inbuilt upside
28:04Then it would be
28:05Then it would be
28:07One year
28:08There is nothing new
28:11Or no dangerous
28:12No one is
28:13Our valuation
28:14From 28-30 time
28:16Price earning
28:17Not in the trading
28:17We can hear
28:1822-22
28:20It should be
28:22It is not
28:23Lucrative
28:24This is the reason, geopolitical situation is not the reason, that has caused volatility.
28:51But the reason is this, EPS growth.
29:01Yes, we are asking that this is a question.
29:06नहीं है इनकी तो दजियां उड़ गई है इन्होंने हमारे यूट्यूप पर जो हम वीडियो डाल रहे हैं इस टर्शा के अलगलग हिस्सों को उस पर ये टिपणी आई हुई है तो जो बाजार में दिक्कतें दिख रही हैं उसमें ज्यादा दबाव इनको दिखा कि माइक्र
29:36all the people who are in the portfolio,
29:41they will be a good quality.
29:45What should we do with this?
29:47Is it possible to see our portfolio?
29:51Or if we can control damage,
29:55then we can do it?
29:57Or if we can do it,
30:00we can do it and we can do it.
30:05किस तरह के प्रोच के साथ अभी यह जो खासकर के सेग्मेंट है जहां पर लोगों को अपने प्रोट्फोलियो ज्यादा रखत रंजब दिख रहा है उसमें क्या करना है नहीं
30:17Again, at the risk of being criticized
30:20or potential criticism face
30:23I can say that
30:24mid-cap, small-cap
30:28there is a segment
30:29which is a crash.
30:31If you have a mid-cap segment
30:33crash,
30:35it is such a
30:36that
30:37March 2025
30:39is a mid-cap index
30:41which is about 47,000
30:43and this index
30:45is about 68,000
30:47and this is about
30:49January 2026
30:51and now
30:54it is about 57,000
30:55and what is crash?
30:58What is this point?
31:00It is applicable
31:02when I have a portfolio
31:03that I have to make it.
31:05If portfolio
31:06one segment
31:07is good,
31:09one segment
31:10is not good,
31:12one segment
31:14foreign
31:44So, there are some kind of things that have been in the past three years, which are good and good, and will be good.
31:51So, when you build a portfolio, the portfolio is a mix.
31:56The mutual fund is not a sector fund, or large-cap fund, or small-cap fund is not a skewed fund.
32:03In a normal portfolio, large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap, micro-cap,
32:10So, all segments, every portfolio, are not good.
32:17One segment is bad, and if it is good, then it will be good,
32:24or if it will be good, or if it will be good, or if it will be good,
32:27then it will be good.
32:31So, when we do that segment,
32:35which segment has been created,
32:3855,000 mid-cap index,
32:4061,000 range.
32:42This is so noise, that portfolio is so low.
32:45But, if you want to create something like 47,000,
32:49why do you need to do that portfolio?
32:52Why do you need to do that portfolio?
32:53Why do you need to do that portfolio?
32:54Why do you need to do that portfolio?
32:56अभला मेरे क्लाइटस को भी ये बत समझसदा है?
33:16foreign
33:46to be aware and education.
33:48We should look at the overall portfolio of corpus growth.
33:53We should look at 3-5 years before my 100 rupees,
33:56how much is it?
33:58This is a process.
34:01We should look at a research analyst
34:05who gives a report,
34:10a year-end call,
34:14a year-end evaluation.
34:16This is my success rate.
34:18This is a process.
34:20This is a process.
34:22If you are talking about investment,
34:24wealth creation portfolio,
34:26we need to look at it.
34:28We need to look at it.
34:30This story will not be finished.
34:32If you have any explanation,
34:36I can talk about numbers.
34:38Even in the best of the best market,
34:40there will be a portion of portfolio
34:42which will not do well.
34:44Today,
34:46there will be one portion of portfolio
34:48which is holding good.
34:50This will happen every time.
34:52So,
34:54overall analysis.
34:56I don't have to do a skewed analysis,
34:58I don't gotta do a skewed analysis.
35:00I can explain the right things,
35:01but I can't do force-earners.
35:03The right thing is going to explain the right thing.
35:05It is about the best analysis,
35:07the least of the best analysis is because
35:09the correct analysis is done.
35:10I can explain the right thing.
35:12That is the right thing,
35:14the answer is the correct thing and the right thing.
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