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Panayam kay Fellow, OCTA research Dr. Guido David ukol sa pagbaba ng self-rated poverty nung huling quarter ng taong 2025

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00:00Pag-ubahan ng self-rated poverty noong huling quarter ng taong 2025,
00:05ating tatalakayan kasama naman si Dr. Guido David, fellow ng Okta Research.
00:13Dr. Guido?
00:17Hi, yes, good afternoon, Joshua and Yusek Marge, and good afternoon to our viewers and listeners.
00:23Dr. David, ayon po sa Okta Research, bumaba sa 37% ang self-rated poverty noong fourth quarter ng 2025 mula 54% noong third quarter.
00:35Ano po yung mga nakikita natin yung factors sa pagbaba nito?
00:40Yeah, this is actually surprising kasi this is a significant decrease in self-rated poverty among the Filipinos.
00:50So, regularly, we conduct this survey every quarter, actually, to assess, engage the situation in the country.
01:01Although, different yung survey namin from, let's say, data from the Philippine Statistics Authority,
01:07wherein they actually estimate yung poverty samin, it's self-rated.
01:13So, we ask the respondents if they consider themselves poor.
01:17And, like I mentioned, we do this every quarter.
01:20So, last time we did this was back in September.
01:23So, the most recent was between December 3 to 11, 2025, with 1,200 respondents.
01:30Usually, pag-December, I guess, maraming pere yung mga tao, may mga bones, I think that's a factor.
01:43But, last year, we did see this kind of drop in self-rated poverty, self-rated hunger.
01:50So, I think one factor, siguro yung continued efforts ng administration to distribute ayuda, that's one factor,
02:04or assistance ating mga kababayan.
02:09The other factor, I believe, is that the inflation rate has stabilized less than 2%.
02:17I think it's at 1.8% as of last checking ng Philippines, as of last data, latest data ng Philippine Statistics Authority.
02:28So, yung buhay, it's not as hard as it was before because nag-stabilize na yung mga ating economic indicators.
02:42Tumatas pa rin naman yung GDP natin, although we didn't reach the target, but we still have a more than 4% increase in GDP.
02:50So, I think these factors, to summarize, yung assistance binibigyan ng government, prices stabilizing,
03:01kasama dito yung presyo ng bigas that has been controlled, we're not seeing much inflation,
03:09and unemployment is just at around 4%.
03:12Sir, sa inyo pong pag-aaral, ilang milyong pamilya po ba ang katumbas niya ito na hindi na itinuturing ang kanilang sarili na mahirap?
03:32Paano po ba ito nararamdaman o nakikita sa mga actual na kondisyon ng mga pamilyang sumasagot ng survey?
03:38Yes, this decrease in number would correspond to about, I think it's around 4 or 5 million families.
03:55So, I'm checking the, yes, actually, sorry, that's about 14 million families that were, that was in the previous quarter,
04:11and then bumabad to 9.8.
04:14So, tama, yes, it's about almost 5 million, 4.5 million families.
04:19So, na nag-change yung lifestyle nila from feeling impoverished to not feeling impoverished.
04:29Or at least, hindi na sila, they no longer consider themselves poor.
04:35So, ito yung mga families, I mean, this 4.5 million families, marami yan,
04:42and it's all over the country, Luzon besides Mindanao,
04:45who are no longer feeling yung economic pressure as much as before.
04:51So, I think malaking tool lang yan sa ating bansa, sa ating mga kababayan.
04:55This is always good news.
04:56Regardless of your political affiliation,
04:59we should always consider a win for the Filipinos as a win.
05:03Okay. Dr. David, ano naman po yung mga indikasyon ng pagbaba ng self-rated food poverty
05:09mula 49% tungo sa 30% pagdating sa access ng mga pamilya sa pagkain noong huling quarter ng taon 2025?
05:20Yeah, actually, that's a good question, Joshua.
05:22So, hindi lang yung self-rated poverty bumaba,
05:26but rin yung self-rated food poverty, which means they have access to food.
05:33So, they consider themselves food poor if they don't have access to good food.
05:40I mean, hindi kabilang dito yung kumakailan ng mga junk food or scraps.
05:46So, kailangan quality food yung kinakain nila.
05:48And I think the access to food,
05:50malaking natulong ng mga government programs in this regard
05:55for having these, yung mga centers for, yung mga food centers
06:03na napupuntahan ng mga kababayan natin.
06:07And again, yung inflation na nag-stabilize na,
06:13I think it has made food, you know, more affordable compared to the previous months.
06:19Sir, nakakatawa po yung data na 4.5 million families po,
06:24yung nakakaramdam na na wala na sila sa impoverished po na status.
06:31Pero kung titignan po natin yung regional breakdown, sir,
06:34nananatiling mataas ang self-rated poverty sa Mindanao
06:37compared sa NCR and the rest of Luzon.
06:41Ano po ba yung mga possible reasons why there's a regional disparity?
06:49And that's a good point, Isaac, Marge.
06:52Nasa some areas, nananatiling mataas yung poverty, yung food poverty.
07:01And yung access should be equal to all.
07:06So, I don't know what's going on in some parts of the country,
07:12but there should be better coordination with the national government
07:17and some of the local government.
07:20I think that should be key so that we can bring access to food,
07:26kunyari, to these places and help our kababayans.
07:31I mean, we've seen this pattern actually used at Marge over the past year
07:35na mas matas yung self-rated poverty, especially in Mindanao.
07:40So, again, we call for the national government to sana provide
07:47or improve our assistance to these places na hindi nakakarating yung mga
07:53maybe the food is not available there
07:58or the affordable food is not available there
08:02or other reasons.
08:05But again, this is an important detail na we hope
08:08will help guide policy for the administration.
08:14Sa NCR naman, Dr. David, puntahan natin
08:16kasi dito marami nagsasabi na hindi masabi kung mahirap o hindi.
08:22Ano po yung interpretation ng OCTA dito sa ganitong classification ng respondent?
08:25Yeah, actually, medyo, ano naman,
08:31consistently medyo mataas yung, kumbaga, undecided sila.
08:36If, ano, but that's fair naman.
08:40As long as hindi sila sure na they're poor,
08:45ang masakit is if they're sure na they're poor
08:48because they see their situation as, you know, as dire.
08:55Pag undecided sila, maybe ayaw lang nila isipin na they're, you know, not poor
09:01because may mga gas losing sila.
09:03I mean, iba-iba naman yung situation ng mga kababayan natin.
09:07Some of our kababayans, I mean, even sa ABC, 40% can't say if they're poor or not.
09:15So, iba-iba naman yung situation ng mga families, you know,
09:19they have a lot of expenses, may mga binambayaran na rent or property,
09:25may binambayaran na sasakyan,
09:26and that means sometimes they feel the pinch
09:30because marami silang binambayaran,
09:34not because they're actually, let's say, poor,
09:37but at least their perception is,
09:39okay, I'm okay, pero marami akong binambayaran,
09:42so I'm not that okay.
09:45Parang ganda.
09:46So, we can interpret it as positive din, Dr. David,
09:50na sabi mo nga kanina,
09:51mas hindi maganda kung sasabihin nila na sigurado sila mahirap sila.
09:55So, somehow, we can interpret it as a positive thing
09:58na hindi nila masabi kung mahirap sila huwag.
10:03Yes, it's always positive.
10:05Ang negative naman diting nagsasabi na poor sila.
10:10That's our interpretation.
10:11So, if they say they're poor,
10:13then kung tumatas yung nagsasabing poor sila,
10:16that's always not a good sign.
10:19Pero kung undecided sila,
10:21that's more acceptable because
10:23hindi lang sila sure.
10:25siguro kung where they stand,
10:26pero economically,
10:28or at least as far as food poverty,
10:31they're sure na,
10:32or they're saying,
10:33they're not saying they're poor,
10:35so they're undecided,
10:37or they're saying na poor sila.
10:38So,
10:39that's...
10:41Sir,
10:47Sir,
10:48since self-rated ang poverty survey,
10:51how do we ensure
10:52that the data given
10:54is consistent and reliable,
10:57and yung mga respondent mismo,
10:59consistent and reliable
11:00yung pananaw nila
11:01sa pag-rate sa kanilang mga kalagayan?
11:07Well, we have some checks din naman,
11:09YSEC March,
11:10for assessing kung
11:12honest na yung answer.
11:14I mean,
11:15we also check their,
11:16you know,
11:17economic stats,
11:18because usually yung mga,
11:19yung survey na ito,
11:21it's conducted
11:22in the residence
11:24of the respondents.
11:27So,
11:28may feedback din naman.
11:29So,
11:30in a way,
11:31it's difficult for them
11:32to,
11:32to sort of lie
11:35about,
11:36their situation,
11:38and they can explain naman,
11:40they can express
11:40if they're feeling the pinch
11:43or they're not.
11:44And,
11:44generally,
11:45we think it's,
11:46it's,
11:47this data is reliable.
11:49We have been,
11:50like I mentioned,
11:51we have been tracking
11:52created poverty for,
11:54I think,
11:55more than two years now.
11:57And,
11:57the trends,
11:58yung sinusundan namin,
11:59usually,
12:01they're also consistent
12:02with what,
12:03we see sa PSA.
12:06So,
12:07for example,
12:08sa Philippine Statistics Authority,
12:09we're seeing,
12:10yung nga,
12:11the unemployment rate
12:12is,
12:12at around 4%,
12:15the inflation rate
12:16is,
12:16steady right now.
12:19So,
12:19these other factors,
12:21support,
12:22our findings,
12:24of,
12:24a decreasing,
12:26self-rated poverty,
12:28and food poverty.
12:29Okay,
12:29so,
12:29Dr. David,
12:30from your perspective po,
12:32with all these numbers and data,
12:34masasabi po bang,
12:35pang matagalan,
12:36ang pagbaba ng self-rated poverty,
12:38o meron pa rin possibility
12:39na tumaas ito ulit,
12:41depende sa presyo
12:42ng mga bilihin,
12:43at iba pang economic factors?
12:44Yes,
12:47we would hope sana Joshua
12:49na long-term na ito,
12:51but,
12:51the reality is,
12:53this is a short-term,
12:54effect,
12:57and,
12:57poverty,
12:58and food poverty
12:59is very elastic,
13:00and that's,
13:01ako personally,
13:03my advocacy,
13:04and,
13:04I would want
13:06the government
13:07to focus on,
13:09to help
13:13alleviate
13:15the economic situation
13:16for many of our
13:17government buyers,
13:18and in my long-term
13:18solutions,
13:20of course,
13:21you know,
13:22we bring in investors,
13:23we bring in,
13:25we encourage
13:27MSMEs
13:33to promote,
13:36or to strengthen
13:37the economy,
13:37because that brings jobs,
13:39the dami mga jobs,
13:40and the dami
13:41opportunities
13:43for our kababayans,
13:45and that will help
13:48the economy,
13:49that will help
13:49people
13:50support themselves.
13:54Okay.
13:55Sir,
13:55ano po ba yung mga
13:56paalala ng OCTA
13:57research sa pamahalan,
13:59lalot na may malaking
14:00pagbaba sa self-rated
14:02poverty?
14:06Yes,
14:06thank you,
14:08Yusak Marge,
14:09for that question.
14:11So,
14:11of course,
14:12this is good news
14:13for the
14:14administration,
14:16and good news
14:17for the Filipinos
14:17in general,
14:19not
14:19for the
14:21field
14:21showing
14:22na,
14:23you know,
14:23our lives
14:24are improving,
14:26bumubuting
14:26kabuhayan natin.
14:28For the
14:28national government,
14:29it means that,
14:31you know,
14:31we're moving
14:32in the right direction.
14:34Kung changes
14:34naman sa country
14:36natin,
14:36it will not
14:37happen
14:37overnight.
14:38We will not
14:39move from
14:40a middle-income
14:41country to,
14:42you know,
14:43a first-world
14:44country
14:45in just a few
14:48months.
14:48This takes
14:50time,
14:50and we need
14:51long-term
14:52solutions
14:52to help
14:54us move
14:54in that
14:56direction.
14:57So,
14:57yung,
14:58as a government,
14:59you know,
14:59take this
15:00as a positive,
15:02and we're
15:02doing the
15:03right things
15:03right now,
15:04and continue
15:06to do the
15:06good things
15:07that we are
15:08doing,
15:09focus natin
15:09dita,
15:10sa positives,
15:11and also
15:12keep our
15:13eye on the
15:13ball.
15:14So,
15:14keep our
15:15eye on
15:15long-term
15:15solutions
15:16for the
15:17country
15:17to help
15:18our
15:19cababayas.
15:19Yun,
15:20mahalaga
15:20progressing,
15:21hindi naman
15:22overnight talaga
15:22yung
15:23pag-unlad.
15:23Correct.
15:24Okay.
15:25Maraming-maraming
15:25salamat po
15:26sa inyong oras,
15:26Dr. Guido David,
15:28fellow ng
15:28Okta Research.
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