00:00Grazie a tutti.
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03:33an issue about the dress code, that the regime's basis of legitimacy is that it speaks the will
03:39of God. And when people say, well, we don't think wearing the hijab comes from God, it comes from
03:45the Ayatollahs, you're just not attacking that issue. You're attacking the very legitimacy of
03:50the Ayatollahs themselves. And that influence is still there. Plus, this time, the economic
03:56circumstances in Iran are really bad, worse than ever. And that's why the protests are so
04:02widespread, countrywide at this point. We hear Trump talking about coming to the aid of the
04:08Iranian people. We heard similar language when it came to Venezuela. Yet, Mr. Trump seems to be
04:14completely comfortable at the moment with having Nicolás Maduro sit in a New York prison while
04:20his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, is at the helm in Caracas. She is a key figurehead of the
04:28Maduro regime. So when you look at Venezuela, do you think Trump is really interested in changing
04:34autocracies into democracies? Or is it really, at the end, all about oil and the strength of the
04:41dollar and so on? Well, it's not really clear what Trump is interested in. I think we're on the verge of
04:46squandering an opportunity in Venezuela. I'm glad Maduro has been captured. But the regime in power
04:52in Caracas is the Maduro regime without Maduro. And if we're not careful, that regime will entrench
04:59itself. And the people will still not be able to take control of the government. And it will also
05:04mean that there's not going to be any substantial external investment in Venezuela in the oil industry.
05:10So the poverty there will continue. Trump himself tweeted to the Iranian opposition,
05:14take control of your institutions. Well, that's what he should be saying in Venezuela as well. That
05:20is how you help overthrow the repressive regime. He is due to meet the opposition leader Maria
05:27Corina Machado very soon. Do you think that could change anything? Or is Trump really not interested
05:33in a proper democratic transition in Venezuela? Well, I think this is a good opportunity for Machado to
05:39say, look, if you don't have representative government in Venezuela, you're never going to
05:44have a rule of law society. You're going to be subject to the arbitrary will of the Maduro regime.
05:50And those circumstances mean foreign investors are not going to come in. They're not going to risk,
05:55especially in the oil sector, billions of dollars of investment that some dictator can just grab away
06:01from them. So for Trump's own purposes, putting the opposition in Venezuela in power is important.
06:07And perhaps she can persuade or explain to him why that's important.
06:12If he fails to do that, is that a strategic failure for the U.S., do you feel?
06:16I think it could well be. I think what the regime in Caracas is doing now is shoring up its support
06:21from the military, the police, the colectivos, the motorcycle gangs that they use to intimidate the
06:28of the population and strengthening their position, talking to China about China exploiting Venezuela
06:34as oil. So the moment's not lost yet, but it's just a clear mistake to stop with Maduro.
06:40And on Greenland, Trump has recently said that anything less than U.S. control of that territory,
06:48which belongs to the Kingdom of Denmark, is unacceptable to him. Do you think he's willing
06:54to use force, military force, to seize that territory?
06:59Ultimately, I don't think he will. I think just the talk, though, of using military force
07:04is costing the U.S. in terms you can't even calculate, in terms of trust and good faith
07:10and our reputation. And if we can say there, there's a new poll out today that shows exactly
07:168 percent of the American people favor the use of force to take Greenland.
07:20I'd like to ask that 8 percent if they even know where Greenland is.
07:24Yet he seems to be doubling down, Mr. Bolton. He seems to be turning his back on diplomacy.
07:28His language is very clear. What could this mean for the U.S. reputation if he does move
07:33ahead with a seizure? And what could it mean for the NATO alliance?
07:38Well, I think it's a disaster for the United States. As I say, they were even talking about
07:41this, and it would be infinitely worse if he did try and use military force. I think there'd
07:47be a political earthquake in this country. There is essentially zero support. And certainly
07:54in Congress, it would be a matter of grave concern. And I think many people believe that
07:59if it happened, it would be the end of the NATO alliance and doing grave damage to U.S.
08:05national security, not to mention the other NATO allies.
08:08In the end, will we just see something more transactional? Do you think he'll opt for a deal,
08:13for example, by paying a lump sum to Greenlanders or striking some kind of agreement with the Danish
08:19government? Is he pushing here for a sale?
08:21Well, he will want to be able to declare victory on something, because after all, the world is
08:26divided into winners and losers, and he always wins. But it doesn't make it any easier to get to
08:34an agreement, which legitimately does concern U.S. national security, Canadian security,
08:40Danish security, the security of the entire NATO alliance against the growing Russian and Chinese
08:45threats in the Arctic Ocean. So a quiet approach to this, I think, could really move fairly rapidly
08:52based on the 1951 Danish-U.S. defensive Greenland treaty.
08:57I'd like to ask you about Ukraine. Trump has been pushing for a very rapid deal to end Russia's war.
09:05It doesn't seem to be coming. Europeans have pledged to very specific security guarantees by now.
09:12Do you think Trump is willing to do the same?
09:15Well, Trump may be willing to give security guarantees, but since it's still not clear he
09:20would even uphold Article 5 of the NATO treaty, words on a piece of paper are not the real answer here.
09:26The only way you can have a guarantee of Ukrainian security is if Russian troops are moving backward
09:33rather than moving forward. So I'm worried about the whole ceasefire approach. I'm afraid it may
09:39give Russia an advantage. And that in Europe, people think if we can get a ceasefire, that's a real
09:46answer. It's not. It just gives Russia a pause to regroup, rebuild its army, refurbish its economy.
09:52Putin wants a Russian empire. He's told us this for 20 years. And in that kind of nationalist thinking,
09:59there's no Russian empire without the whole of Ukraine. That's what Putin wants.
10:03Do you think there's a risk here that Trump is losing patience and will sell out the Ukrainians?
10:07Well, I think he's losing patience because it's not getting him the Nobel Peace Prize that's really
10:11the end objective for him on almost everything we've been talking about. I don't know that it would
10:17necessarily mean he would sell out Ukraine. He might just withdraw from the issue because it's not
10:22making him a winner. And if the U.S. continued to supply intelligence to Ukraine, if we continued
10:30to sell weapons and ammunition to our European NATO allies who could pass it on to Ukraine,
10:36that I think might be sufficient to keep Ukraine going. That's not an ideal outcome from my point of
10:43view. But I think if we could get that minimum, then let Trump walk away.
10:47Final question, Mr. Bolton. You know, Trump promised to pursue an America first policy,
10:54a less interventionist approach. Some would say he's doing the complete opposite. How would you
11:00rate his foreign policy so far in his second term? From one to 10, how would you grade it?
11:09Well, around a two or three, I think. A lot's incomplete. One thing we haven't talked about is
11:14tariff policy, trade issues, which I do think are important for national security. They've been a
11:20complete disaster and harmed the United States in many ways, not just economic, but in reputational
11:27and political terms as well. So I don't think Trump really understands what he's doing. He doesn't have
11:33a national security grand strategy. Everything is transactional, episodic, ad hoc. And that's why he can
11:41completely reverse what he said during the campaign and not even see that he's contradicting himself.
11:46I think he's causing himself political difficulties with his own base for what he's doing. But that's
11:52his problem. Mr. Bolton, thank you so much for your time. Well, thanks for having me.
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