Военные действия США могут оказать «решающее влияние» на ситуацию внутри Ирана, заявил Джон Болтон
Джон Болтон, бывший советник президента Трампа по нацбезопасности, считает, что США, скорее всего, выберут «точечные удары» по Ирану, пока регион готовится к возможному военному вмешательству. Трамп намекнул, что американская помощь «уже в пути».
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02:29The young people are unhappy, women are unhappy since the murder of Masyamini over two years ago, the economic situation is obviously extremely bad, but the outside world has basically sat back and done nothing now and permitted the regime to suppress the opposition.
02:47I think if we show that we are very much interested in what happens and favor the fall of the government, that that could have a very positive effect inside the country.
03:00And you mentioned the outside world. Do you think Europe also needs to step in here? What can it do?
03:06Well, Europe hasn't done much of anything, unfortunately. I think they should be working with the United States.
03:11We should all be working more with the opposition to provide resources, communications, for example, to help them coordinate better inside Iran.
03:19I think the situation is different now for a couple of reasons.
03:22Number one, the protest after the murder of Masyamini for neglecting to wear the hijab that the Ayatollahs prescribed was not just an issue about the dress code.
03:35The regime's basis of legitimacy is that it speaks the will of God.
03:39And when people say, well, we don't think wearing the hijab comes from God, it comes from the Ayatollahs, you're just not attacking that issue.
03:48You're attacking the very legitimacy of the Ayatollahs themselves.
03:52And that influence is still there. Plus, this time, the economic circumstances in Iran are really bad, worse than ever.
04:00And that's why the protests are so widespread, countrywide at this point.
04:05We hear Trump talking about coming to the aid of the Iranian people.
04:09We heard similar language when it came to Venezuela.
04:12Yet, Mr. Trump seems to be completely comfortable at the moment with having Nicolás Maduro sit in a New York prison while his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, is at the helm in Caracas.
04:25She is a key figurehead of the Maduro regime.
04:29So when you look at Venezuela, do you think Trump is really interested in changing autocracies into democracies or is it really at the end all about oil and the strength of the dollar and so on?
04:42Well, it's not really clear what Trump is interested in.
04:44I think we're on the verge of squandering an opportunity in Venezuela.
04:49I'm glad Maduro has been captured.
04:51But the regime in power in Caracas is the Maduro regime without Maduro.
04:56And if we're not careful, that regime will entrench itself and the people will still not be able to take control of the government.
05:03And it will also mean that there's not going to be any substantial external investment in Venezuela in the oil industry.
05:10So the poverty there will continue.
05:12Trump himself tweeted to the Iranian opposition, take control of your institutions.
05:17Well, that's what he should be saying in Venezuela as well.
05:20That is how you help overthrow the repressive regime.
05:24He is due to meet the opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, very soon.
05:30Do you think that could change anything?
05:32Or is Trump really not interested in a proper democratic transition in Venezuela?
05:36Well, I think this is a good opportunity for Machado to say, look, if you don't have representative government in Venezuela, you're never going to have a rule of law society.
05:46You're going to be subject to the arbitrary will of the Maduro regime.
05:50And those circumstances mean foreign investors are not going to come in.
05:53They're not going to risk, especially in the oil sector, billions of dollars of investment that some dictator can just grab away from them.
06:01So for Trump's own purposes, putting the opposition in Venezuela in power is important.
06:07And perhaps she can persuade or explain to him why that's important.
06:12If he fails to do that, is that a strategic failure for the U.S., do you feel?
06:16I think it could well be.
06:17I think what the regime in Caracas is doing now is shoring up its support from the military, the police, the colectivos, the motorcycle gangs that they use to intimidate the population and strengthening their position, talking to China about China exploiting Venezuela's oil.
06:35So the moment's not lost yet, but it's just a clear mistake to stop with Maduro.
06:40And on Greenland, Trump has recently said that anything less than U.S. control of that territory, which belongs to the Kingdom of Denmark, is unacceptable to him.
06:53Do you think he's willing to use force, military force, to seize that territory?
06:59Ultimately, I don't think he will.
07:01Well, I think just the talk, though, of using military force is costing the U.S. in terms you can't even calculate, in terms of trust and good faith and our reputation.
07:13And if we can say there, there's a new poll out today that shows exactly 8 percent of the American people favor the use of force to take Greenland.
07:21I'd like to ask that 8 percent if they even know where Greenland is.
07:24Yet he seems to be doubling down, Mr. Bolton.
07:26He seems to be turning his back on diplomacy.
07:28His language is very clear.
07:30What could this mean for the U.S. reputation if he does move ahead with a seizure?
07:35And what could it mean for the NATO alliance?
07:38Well, I think it's a disaster for the United States.
07:40As I say, we're even talking about this.
07:42And it would be infinitely worse if he did try and use military force.
07:46I think there'd be a political earthquake in this country.
07:50There is essentially zero support.
07:53And certainly in Congress, it would be a matter of grave concern.
07:57And I think many people believe that if it happened, it would be the end of the NATO alliance and a grave, a grave doing grave damage to U.S. national security, not to mention the other NATO allies.
08:08In the end, will we just see something more transactional?
08:12Do you think he'll opt for a deal, for example, by paying a lump sum to Greenlanders or striking some kind of agreement with the Danish government?
08:19And is he pushing here for sale?
08:21Well, he will want to be able to declare victory on something, because after all, the world is divided into winners and losers and he always wins.
08:29But it doesn't make it any easier to get to an agreement, which legitimately does concern U.S. national security, Canadian security, Danish security, the security of the entire NATO alliance against the growing Russian and Chinese threats in the Arctic Ocean.
08:47So a quiet approach to this, I think, could really move fairly rapidly based on the 1951 Danish-U.S. Defense of Greenland Treaty.
08:57I'd like to ask you about Ukraine.
09:00Trump has been pushing for a very rapid deal to end Russia's war.
09:05It doesn't seem to be coming.
09:07Europeans have pledged to very specific security guarantees by now.
09:12Do you think Trump is willing to do the same?
09:14Well, Trump may be willing to give security guarantees, but since it's still not clear he would even uphold Article 5 of the NATO treaty, words on a piece of paper are not the real answer here.
09:26The only way you can have a guarantee of Ukrainian security is if Russian troops are moving backward rather than moving forward.
09:36So I'm worried about the whole ceasefire approach.
09:39I'm afraid it may give Russia an advantage and that in Europe, people think if we can get a ceasefire, that's a real answer.
09:47It's not.
09:47It just gives Russia a pause to regroup, rebuild its army, refurbish its economy.
09:53Putin wants a Russian empire.
09:54He's told us this for 20 years.
09:57And in that kind of nationalist thinking, there's no Russian empire without the whole of Ukraine.
10:01That's what Putin wants.
10:03Do you think there's a risk here that Trump is losing patience and will sell out the Ukrainians?
10:07Well, I think he's losing patience because it's not getting him the Nobel Peace Prize that's really the end objective for him on almost everything we've been talking about.
10:16I don't know that it would necessarily mean he would sell out Ukraine.
10:19He might just withdraw from the issue because it's not making him a winner.
10:23And if the U.S. continued to supply intelligence to Ukraine, if we continued to sell weapons and ammunition to our European NATO allies who could pass it on to Ukraine, that I think might be sufficient to keep Ukraine going.
10:40That's not an ideal outcome from my point of view.
10:43But I think if we could get that minimum, then let Trump walk away.
10:47Final question, Mr. Bolton, you know, Trump promised to pursue an America first policy, a less interventionist approach.
10:56Some would say he's doing the complete opposite.
10:59How would you rate his foreign policy so far in his second term from one second term?
11:06Excuse me, from one to 10.
11:08How would you grade it?
11:09Well, around a two or three, I think a lot's incomplete.
11:13One thing we haven't talked about is his tariff policy, trade issues, which I do think are important for national security.
11:20They've been a complete disaster and harmed the United States in many ways, not just economic, but in reputational and political terms as well.
11:29So I don't think Trump really understands what he's doing.
11:32He doesn't have a national security grand strategy.
11:35Everything is transactional, episodic, ad hoc.
11:40And that's why he can completely reverse what he said during the campaign and not even see that he's contradicting himself.
11:46I think he's causing himself political difficulties with his own base for what he's doing.
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