US military intervention could have ‘decisive effect’ on dynamics inside Iran, says John Bolton
John Bolton, a former national security advisor to President Trump, says he believes the US will opt for 'targeted strikes' on Iran as the region braces for a militarily intervention. Trump teased American 'help is on its way.'
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00:00Joining me is President Donald Trump's former national security advisor, John Bolton.
00:13He served during Trump's first term, but has since become one of the president's fiercest critics.
00:20Mr Bolton, welcome. Thank you so much for joining us.
00:23Thank you for having me.
00:24So I'd like to start with the situation in Iran.
00:26We're hearing that the region is getting prepared for a potential U.S. attack.
00:33You've advised Mr Trump in the past.
00:35Do you think he's now leaning towards military intervention?
00:39Is he preparing for war?
00:41Well, I think it's certainly the case he's looking at potential strikes against targets in Iran because of the protests.
00:49I believe for a long time that regime change in Iran is an absolute prerequisite for any hope of lasting peace and security in the Middle East and really to eliminate the threat of international terrorism and nuclear weapons that the regime in Tehran represents.
01:05I think the regime is weak. I think it's at its most vulnerable moment, perhaps even going back to 1979 when it took power.
01:15And so here, military action by the U.S. could have a decisive effect on the dynamic inside Iran.
01:21But you mentioned targeted military strikes.
01:25But if the end game here is to finally topple the Ayatollah's regime, is that enough?
01:31Well, I think the targets to look at, obviously taking out whatever air defenses remained for Iran and or new ones the Russians may have supplied.
01:40But then I would look at striking the headquarters of the Revolutionary Guard, military bases of the Guard, the Basiji militia that has been instrumental in repressing the population, the Iranian Navy, the nuclear program, the ballistic missile program.
01:57And I think that would further debilitate the regime.
02:00And it would show to the opposition, we're not trying to harm Iran itself.
02:03It's the regime that's the target.
02:05It would give the opposition clear indication that the U.S. and the rest of the outside world are watching.
02:11So you think, Mr. Bolton, that we could be looking at the start of the end of the regime?
02:16Is that the end game for the U.S.?
02:18Well, I hope so.
02:19I mean, we've been close to this point before.
02:21There's been enormous discontent in Iran for a variety of reasons.
02:27Ethnic clashes.
02:29The young people are unhappy.
02:31Women are unhappy since the murder of Masi Amini over two years ago.
02:36The economic situation is obviously extremely bad.
02:40But the outside world has basically sat back and done nothing now and permitted the regime to suppress the opposition.
02:48I think if we show that we are very much interested in what happens and favor the fall of the government, that that could have a very positive effect inside the country.
03:00And you mentioned the outside world.
03:02Do you think Europe also needs to step in here?
03:05What can it do?
03:06Well, Europe hasn't done much of anything, unfortunately.
03:08I think they should be working with the United States.
03:11We should all be working more with the opposition to provide resources, communications, for example, to help them coordinate better inside Iran.
03:19And I think the situation is different now for a couple of reasons.
03:22Number one, the protest after the murder of Masi Amini for neglecting to wear the hijab that the Ayatollahs prescribed was not just an issue about the dress code.
03:35The regime's basis of legitimacy is that it speaks the will of God.
03:39And when people say, well, we don't think wearing the hijab comes from God, it comes from the Ayatollahs, you're just not attacking that issue.
03:48You're attacking the very legitimacy of the Ayatollahs themselves.
03:52And that influence is still there.
03:54Plus, this time, the economic circumstances in Iran are really bad, worse than ever.
04:00And that's why the protests are so widespread, countrywide at this point.
04:05We hear Trump talking about coming to the aid of the Iranian people.
04:09We heard similar language when it came to Venezuela.
04:12Yet, Mr. Trump seems to be completely comfortable at the moment with having Nicolás Maduro sit in a New York prison while his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, is at the helm in Caracas.
04:25She is a key figurehead of the Maduro regime.
04:29So, when you look at Venezuela, do you think Trump is really interested in changing autocracies into democracies?
04:36Or is it really, at the end, all about oil and the strength of the dollar and so on?
04:42Well, it's not really clear what Trump is interested in.
04:44I think we're on the verge of squandering an opportunity in Venezuela.
04:49I'm glad Maduro has been captured.
04:51But the regime in power in Caracas is the Maduro regime without Maduro.
04:56And if we're not careful, that regime will entrench itself and the people will still not be able to take control of the government.
05:03And it will also mean that there's not going to be any substantial external investment in Venezuela in the oil industry.
05:10So, the poverty there will continue.
05:12Trump himself tweeted to the Iranian opposition, take control of your institutions.
05:17Well, that's what he should be saying in Venezuela as well.
05:20That is how you help overthrow the repressive regime.
05:24He is due to meet the opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, very soon.
05:30Do you think that could change anything?
05:32Or is Trump really not interested in a proper democratic transition in Venezuela?
05:36Well, I think this is a good opportunity for Machado to say, look, if you don't have representative government in Venezuela,
05:43you're never going to have a rule of law society.
05:46You're going to be subject to the arbitrary will of the Maduro regime.
05:50And those circumstances mean foreign investors are not going to come in.
05:53They're not going to risk, especially in the oil sector, billions of dollars of investment that some dictator can just grab away from them.
06:02So, for Trump's own purposes, putting the opposition in Venezuela in power is important.
06:07And perhaps she can persuade or explain to him why that's important.
06:11If he fails to do that, is that a strategic failure for the U.S., do you feel?
06:16I think it could well be.
06:17I think what the regime in Caracas is doing now is shoring up its support from the military, the police, the colectivos,
06:25the motorcycle gangs that they use to intimidate the population and strengthening their position, talking to China about China exploiting Venezuela's oil.
06:35So the moment's not lost yet, but it's just a clear mistake to stop with Maduro.
06:40And on Greenland, Trump has recently said that anything less than U.S. control of that territory,
06:48which belongs to the Kingdom of Denmark, is unacceptable to him.
06:52Do you think he's willing to use force, military force, to seize that territory?
06:59Ultimately, I don't think he will.
07:01I think just the talk, though, of using military force is costing the U.S. in terms you can't even calculate,
07:08in terms of trust and good faith and our reputation.
07:13And if we can say there, there's a new poll out today that shows exactly 8 percent of the American people favor the use of force to take Greenland.
07:20I'd like to ask that 8 percent if they even know where Greenland is.
07:24Yet he seems to be doubling down, Mr. Bolton.
07:26He seems to be turning his back on diplomacy.
07:28His language is very clear.
07:30What could this mean for the U.S. reputation if he does move ahead with a seizure?
07:35And what could it mean for the NATO alliance?
07:38Well, I think it's a disaster for the United States.
07:40As I say, we're even talking about this.
07:42And it would be it would be infinitely worse if if he did try and use military force.
07:46I think there'd be a political earthquake in this country that there is essentially zero support.
07:53And certainly in Congress, it would be a matter of grave concern.
07:57And I think many people believe that if it happened, it would be the end of the NATO alliance and a grave,
08:03a grave doing grave damage to U.S. national security, not to mention the other NATO allies.
08:08In the end, will we just see something more transactional?
08:12Do you think he'll opt for a deal, for example, by paying a lump sum to Greenlanders or striking some kind of agreement with the Danish government?
08:19Is he pushing here for a sale?
08:21Well, he will want to be able to declare victory on something, because after all, the world is divided into winners and losers and he always wins.
08:29But it doesn't make it any easier to get to an agreement, which legitimately does concern U.S. national security, Canadian security, Danish security,
08:41the security of the entire NATO alliance against the growing Russian and Chinese threats in the Arctic Ocean.
08:47So a quiet approach to this, I think, could really move fairly rapidly based on the 1951 Danish-U.S. Defense of Greenland Treaty.
08:57I'd like to ask you about Ukraine.
09:00Trump has been pushing for a very rapid deal to end Russia's war.
09:05It doesn't seem to be coming.
09:07Europeans have pledged to very specific security guarantees by now.
09:12Do you think Trump is willing to do the same?
09:15Well, Trump may be willing to give security guarantees, but since it's still not clear he would even uphold Article 5 of the NATO treaty,
09:23words on a piece of paper are not the real answer here.
09:26The only way you can have a guarantee of Ukrainian security is if Russian troops are moving backward rather than moving forward.
09:36So I'm worried about the whole ceasefire approach.
09:39I'm afraid it may give Russia an advantage.
09:41And that in Europe, people think if we can get a ceasefire, that's a real answer.
09:47It's not.
09:47It just gives Russia a pause to regroup, rebuild its army, refurbish its economy.
09:53Putin wants a Russian empire.
09:54He's told us this for 20 years.
09:57And in that kind of nationalist thinking, there's no Russian empire without the whole of Ukraine.
10:01That's what Putin wants.
10:02Do you think there's a risk here that Trump is losing patience and will sell out the Ukrainians?
10:07Well, I think he's losing patience because it's not getting him the Nobel Peace Prize that's really the end objective for him on almost everything we've been talking about.
10:15I don't know that it would necessarily mean he would sell out Ukraine.
10:19He might just withdraw from the issue because it's not making him a winner.
10:23And if the U.S. continued to supply intelligence to Ukraine, if we continued to sell weapons and ammunition to our European NATO allies who could pass it on to Ukraine, that I think might be sufficient to keep Ukraine going.
10:40That's not an ideal outcome from my point of view.
10:43But I think if we could get that minimum, then let Trump walk away.
10:47Final question, Mr. Bolton, you know, Trump promised to pursue an America first policy, a less interventionist approach.
10:56Some would say he's doing the complete opposite.
10:59How would you rate his foreign policy so far in his second term from one second term?
11:06Excuse me, from one to 10.
11:08How would you grade it?
11:10Well, around a two or three, I think a lot's incomplete.
11:12One thing we haven't talked about is his tariff policy, trade issues, which I do think are important for national security.
11:20They've been a complete disaster and harmed the United States in many ways, not just economic, but in reputational and political terms as well.
11:29So I don't think Trump really understands what he's doing.
11:32He doesn't have a national security grand strategy.
11:35Everything is transactional, episodic, ad hoc.
11:40And that's why he can completely reverse what he said during the campaign and not even see that he's contradicting himself.
11:46I think he's causing himself political difficulties with his own base for what he's doing.
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